The big factor this year...

by engeljd on Aug 30, 2007 3:19 PM PDT Comment 4 comments

(Bumped from the diaries. This is an important topic for discussion, thanks to engeljd for bringing it up --Dave)

... is the schedule.

Yes, we tanked it down the stretch. Yes, this has been the pattern the last several years (save 2005, when Clemens' injury woke everyone up at the right time).

But here is my very amateur opinion. Last year's road conference schedule was pretty brutal... USC, Cal, OS(U), ASU, and WSU. That's T-1st, T-1st, 3rd, T-5th, T-5th. And we played the entire conference schedule (substitute Stanford for PSU as the cupcake home game during that stretch) without a break. It's no wonder that once the tailspin started, it didn't stop.

But this year looks a little different.
-We get to flip last years tough road schedule. USC is tough anywhere, but we tend to do much better against Cal and WSU at Autzen, and we know how the Civil War has gone for the last decade or so.
-More breaks in the schedule. While I would like to have seen a break after the Michigan game, the Bye week comes after the Cal game. We also get a 12 day break between ASU and Arizona, and 9 days between our only back-to-back road games on the schedule, Arizona and UCLA.
-No cupcakes in the non-conference schedule. Fresno State almost qualifies based on their record last season, but they should have beat us... Pat Hill is always up for Pac-10 teams.

My prediction for this season? I agree with Bob Rickert when he says that "8-4 is the Mendoza Line for the season." With that in mind, I think that it will play out like this:
Non Conference- 2 wins, 1 loss
Conference Home- 4 wins, 1 loss
Conference Away- 3 wins, 1 loss
Total Regular Season- 9 wins, 3 losses... puts us in line for Rose, Holiday, or Sun. Another loss probably takes the first two out of the equation.

Two more losses... a 7-5 season... we'll have to start selling 'Spike Mike' bumper stickers. But hey... no pressure.

Poll

Which home conference game can be best catagorized as a 'Cakewalk'?

WSU- sort of it's own punchline

2 votes

Cal- the weed's better up here

0 votes

OS(U)- three words... two-quarterback system

2 votes

USC- This year's illegal-payments-to-players scandal? Turns out that the funds come from dogfighting. NCAA ruling- Death Penalty

1 votes

ASU- Dennis Erickson's first year teams are kind of a train wreck.

1 votes

6 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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I agree with 9-3

Michigan and SC are going to be tough, no doubt about it. But I don't see another game on the schedule that we shouldn't be favored to win. Now, this is the Pac-10, so I think that we'll probably slip up once, but there is really no reason that this team shouldn't be at least 9-3. Anything less is underachieving.

by Addicted to Quack on Aug 30, 2007 8:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

9-3 or better

I wonder how much Bellotti gears his teams to be strong when the schedule is favorable. I've wondered if that was the reason he strangely burned Dixon's eligibility just so he could finish his career on an odd year when the tough games were coming at home and the Ducks had the best shot at a national title (if they held serve at Autzen and the stars aligned.) Call me a conspiracy theorist.

You think that is crazy-talk? I can do better: why did Bellotti belittle BYU in that bowl game, saying BYU wouldn't be an average team in the Pac-10? Even if it is true, you NEVER say something like that against an opponent. That doesn't seem like him at all. Why would he get that team amped to play us when it could easily have been avoided? I don't think it is accidental, and I have my suspiscions. He also didn't let Snoop gain 1000 yards in that game when it was easily in reach. Was he trying to tank so that the Ducks would come in under-the-radar with a chip on their shoulder? If it pays off this year and the Ducks can surprise Michigan or SC, would it have been worth it?

by cmcooper on Aug 30, 2007 12:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Less than 10 disappointing

With all the talent and experience at so many key positions, I'll honestly be disappointed with anything less than 10 wins and a BCS game. This is the year I circled a while back when Dixon and Colvin would be seniors, along with Snoop, JJ, and J-Will being juniors. Throw in a veteran O-line, a pleasantly great young secondary, the favorable home schedule and that's one hell of a team. Plus you have the quality non-conf slate that will make BCS repect us. All we gotta do is win baby!

While I'm not an uber-Bellotti guy like some fans, I think it's ridiculous to suggest he tanked the season or purposefully prevented Snoop from reaching 1000yds. When he played Dixon his FR year, nobody new we'd have the 12 game schedule or how the round robin league schedule would shake out as it has. Regarding BYU, when you're getting your asses whipped it's kinda hard to have any semblence of a running game.

A final note of the schedule, OSU has the complete opposite of our schedule, as with all the other Pac-10 regions where each team's schedule is opposite from one another. Look at how the Beavers took advantage of that schedule last year, and think about how we have that opportunity this year. Likewise, watch how OSU will feel the pain of the road slate we experience last year.

Dixon Your Cougars...Go Ducks!!!

by jteubs on Aug 30, 2007 9:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs