Whiny Cal Fans, Please Go Away

by David Piper on Sep 26, 2007 10:50 PM PDT in Oregon Ducks Football

I have said before all opposing fans who wish to engage in thoughtful discussion are welcome here. Those who simply want to flame or troll are not. Same goes for my email box. I will answer a couple of criticisms from yesterday's post because I think that they provide interesting discussion material.

First off, Cal fans can stop sending me the emails about Cal having more playmakers than Oregon. Here is my count:

Oregon Playmakers
Offense
Dennis Dixon
Jonathan Stewart
Jeremiah Johnson
Jaison Williams
Defense
Matthew Harper
Walter Thurmond
Patrick Chung
Jairus Byrd

That's eight for Oregon

Cal:
Justin Forsett
DeSean Jackson (Injured and fairly ineffective thus far)
Jahvid Best
Zach Follett (may or may not play)
Thomas DeCoud

I didn't list Worrell Williams, though a few others have, so I'll even give you him. By my count, that's 8-6, and two of yours are injured. Again, this is simply my opinion, and you are free to differ.

As for Cal's defense, I may have been exaggerating a bit when I said that they were the worst other than Stanford. Wazzu is pretty bad, we still don't know about ASU, etc. But, quite frankly, your defense is not very good. SC's is obviously better, Oregon State's is better, UCLA and Arizona are better. I don't hold any thoughts that Oregon's defense is that great, or that they will in any way be able to hold you under 35 points.

But here are some facts: A Tennessee team that is looking more pedestrian every week and didn't have their starting running back moved the ball against you pretty easily. A really bad Arizona team moved the ball against you pretty easily. You lost three all league defenders from last year's team. Yes, your defense is physical. Yes, they force turnovers. Your differential is the same as ours. But they give up a ton of yards and points, allow QBs way too much time in the pocket, and commit way too many penalties.
Oregon's defense isn't good, mainly against the run. But I have no reason, based on both the stats and what I've seen (the Tenn. and Ariz. games) to believe that Cal's is really any better. (Again, for those whining to me that Michigan isn't really an impressive win, how is Tennessee's resume much better? And you got them at home).

Offensively, we don't know what Cal can expect out of DeSean Jackson. Other than the punt return against Tennessee (and that was one damn sweet punt return), he just hasn't looked that good. And his thumb probably has a lot to do with that. Nate Longshore is inconsistent. I expect Lavelle Hawkins to get his. But the pass rush will put immense pressure on Longshore, and the D-Backs have been getting turnovers like crazy all year.

Basically, I'm thinking that your running game is going to have to beat us. Can Justin Forsett handle 35 carries? Or are Jahvid Best and James Montgomery going to get a lot of carries (because so far, they really haven't).

Meanwhile, Oregon has the ability to go well over 300 yards either passing or receiving. Oregon has basically two starting running backs (Stewart and Johnson are a lot like Lynch and Forsett last year). Plus, our quarterback has much more big play ability than Longshore because he can use his legs. Receivers? Cal may have a slight edge with a healthy Jackson. But we know that Williams is a big time receiver, and Cam Colvin has 136 yards filling in for the injured Brian Paysinger last week.

Look, its not that I think Cal is a bad team. They would toast any team in the Big 10, anyone but Oklahoma in the Big 12, Damn sure anyone in the ACC, and most of the SEC besides LSU and Florida. But you have to remember, in Oregon and Cal, we're talking about two top ten teams here. And small differences are going to be the deciding factor in these types of games. These are those factors:

The game is in Eugene and not in Berkeley. Cal has to go into the most intimidating environment on the west coast.
Oregon has a QB who has thus far been one of the top playmakers in the country with both his arm and his legs. Cal has an immobile pocket passer who won't lose you a game, but certianly isn't going to win one for you.
Cal has injuries at key positions. DeSean Jackson isn't healthy. Zach Follett may not play. Fullback Will Ta'ufo'ou has a torn knee ligament. These are big time Cal players who won't be at 100%.

Cal should win ten games this year. Certainly no fewer than nine. But this is a worse team than last year. And, in my humble opinion, Oregon should beat them. I'm certainly not the only one with this opnion, as Vegas favors the Ducks as well.

In the meantime, keep in mind that this is an Oregon fan site. And, quite frankly, you shouldn't be worried if an opposing blogger thinks that your team may lose a game. Surely with your enlightened Berkeley education, you have better things to do.

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Cal fan checking in...

and I have no real complaints with your posts regarding Cal. As with any matchup between two good, top 10 programs, this game will probably come down to big plays and turnovers.

I would argue that Lavelle Hawkins is a playmaker. He's already returned a kickoff and part of the reason that Desean has fewer catches is because Hawkins has been catching tons of balls up the middle for big gains.

Also, minor note, it's Thomas Decoud, although I'm not yet convinced that he's a playmaker. He had a great game last Saturday and he very well could be a playmaker. I just haven't seen enough of it yet to be sure.

Good luck on Saturday!

by CalNick on Sep 26, 2007 11:21 PM PDT reply actions

Thanks, Decoud is fixed

And Hawkins is certainly in the discussion

by David Piper on Sep 26, 2007 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Some others...

on Offense, add Max Unger, IMO one of the best O-Lineman in the PAC-10. Andre Crenshaw is showing he will be a beast the next couple years, along with Andiel Brown returning kicks. Finally we have someone for ST. Watch out for Cam Colvin. I said it going into camp, he was going to have a Aaron Brooks type senior season. This is his time to shine, and I think he will take full advantage.

Defense, I believe Jerome Boyd has stepped up, Jeremy Gibbs as long as keeps his mouth shut, his a huge prescence on the line, along with David Faateete

by socalduck on Sep 27, 2007 7:39 AM PDT reply actions

Homer on!

Hey, mate.

Nice job of trying to break down playmakers, etc. But I have to agree with CalNick regarding Hawk. That guy is so underrated because everyone in the country thinks Cal's receiving corps is simply D-Jax. Plus, the TE Morrah should be considered as well - the only reason you aren't really aware of him is because he doesn't get his number called all that frequently.

I can't comment too much on the Duck playmakers, since I haven't had much chance to see any games here in LA, so I'll take your word for your count. But, that means if you leave off Morrah, the count is 8 - 7 which is essentially a wash.

And it goes back to my initial comment on your other post that anyone claiming that either of these teams is superior to the other in any facet of the game is just wrong. These are two very even and similar teams. Both have explosive offenses, both have questionable defenses (though with very big playmakers), both have close to the same offensive and defensive output, both have similar (if not identical) turnover margins.

Games like this and growing rivalries like this are what make college football so special. I'm hoping for a very strong and entertaining game, and look forward to great seasons for both teams.

My prediction: Cal 41:37 Oregon.

Go Bears!

by SoCal Oski on Sep 27, 2007 8:30 AM PDT reply actions

Ignore Hawk at your peril

I won't argue with anyone on your list of UO playmakers, but leaving Hawkins off the list of Cal playmakers is pretty hard to justify. He's easily been Cal's best receiver so far this year (yes, better than Jackson, and maybe not just because of the thumb), and been solid on kickoff returns (including one for a TD). I'm sure Ducks fans expect your receivers to play well against our secondary, but it shouldn't be any surprise if Hawkins is the most productive receiver on the field on Saturday.

Which reminds me of something Dave wrote in an earlier post: "Oregon has the bigger, taller, faster receivers." I'll give you bigger and taller, but not faster - or more importantly, more productive. Even with DeSean's thumb and Nate looking shaky so far, there's plenty of reason to give a big edge to our trio of Jackson / Hawkins / Jordan + 2 top-shelf TEs in Morrah and Stevens. In fact, when you look at those 5 plus our depth, I would say our receiver advantage is as big as your QB advantage. Ducks fans, you may disagree, and that's fine. But if you think Cal's receiving corps is weak just because you looked up DeSean's numbers and found them lacking, well, Lavelle Hawkins just might ruin your Saturday.

by Calfan on Sep 27, 2007 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Clearing The Air

Dave,

Thanks for clarifying your comments about playmakers and lightening up the mood a little bit--this is definitely one of the best rivalries for each school, so emotions are bound to run high, but in the end it's just a game (which will be won by Cal!)

Anyway, I agree that these teams are very evenly matched and that subtle differences/mistakes/key execution are going to decide the victor. The intangible edge would go to Oregon since it's at home and they have a bit more experience.

I just think it's going to be close and, as you eluded to, the "playmakers" are going to be instrumental. That term has been thrown around pretty loosely, but I think your descriptions are mostly accurate. For the sake of comparison, you've got to add Lavelle Hawkins, who has been Cal's most consistent receiver this season and who also returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Louisiana Tech. On defense, one name you could be hearing a lot of not only this Saturday, but for the rest of the year, is Tyson Alualu. He is arguably the most improved defensive lineman for the Bears at this point and has shown he can apply pressure on the quarterback. He even blocked a field goal against Louisiana Tech.

The defense is obviously a bit porous in pass defense, but any defense will give up passing yards when the team has a big lead. Arizona made it close but didn't really have a chance, and Willie Tuitama established school records for attempts and completions against the Bears while still barely eclipsing 300 yards. Tennessee's Erik Ainge is a great quarterback who was missing one of his top running backs when the Vols came to Berkeley, so you had to believe he was going to get his share (even though the Vols lost big to Florida too they are anything but a cupcake). As for Colorado State, again, as has been mentioned, the Rams did their offensive damage against Cal's second unit.

I have to admit I'm biased, and while I think Cal's defense is anything but perfect, the unit is not bad. To say Arizona, Oregon State, and UCLA all have better defenses, well... I will respectfully disagree. UCLA gave up 44 points to Utah. Arizona gave up 29 points at home to New Mexico. The Beavers have given up 78 points in two road games this season. And if you want to talk about yards, the only facet of those three teams that has the Bears beat is Oregon State's rush defense, which by some genius has allowed only 0.9 yards per rush this season (lots of sacks, maybe?). UCLA is last in the Pac-10 in pass defense and while Arizona was touted as having a strong unit, they are statistically below the Bears in every major team defense category. We all know the Bears lost Mebane, Bishop, and Hughes, but solid recruiting has made it relatively easy to fill those holes.

The Bears have kept opponents in check on the ground this year, but obviously I think the Ducks will get their share. The challenge for Cal's defense will be limiting the big plays early and forcing short drives late in the game so they don't stay on the field too long and get tired. I assume the same can be said for Oregon's defense.

When I previewed Cal's defense before the season began, I definitely thought they would need time to develop and gel. The fact that the team has yet to lose while still not playing anywhere close to a solid game shows the defense continues to have the potential to display even more talent. This Saturday will offer a great opportunity to live up to that potential. Should be fun.

by Eli on Sep 27, 2007 10:58 AM PDT reply actions

In OSeww's Defense...

They lost to an undefeated Cincinnati team in which a lot of their pts came off to's by Oregon St on their own side of the ball, and an undefeated ASU team. Carpenter is looking a lot more like he did two years ago and less like he did last year. Could this be because of Dennis Erickson's? Perhaps.

Cal's only response to the number of pts they gave up to mighty Colorado St and Louisiana Tech is, "They were scrub minutes, blah blah"

It's comical how everyone looks at ONE Quarter in the Stanford game and bases that qtr on how good Oregon is. I ask you this question, did you even watch the game, or did you read the Sunday Sports to get your information? Oregon score 55 pts, 55 POINTS, in 3 qtrs. Cal hasn't even scored that in one game.

Yes, Stanford RB had his first ever 100yd game and us Oregon fans continue to watch our Defense get ran over by mediocre RB's. I believe Portland St even rushed for over a 100yd against us last year. However, this same defense by Oregon has shown that it can stand up to adversity. Look at the 2nd half of the Stanford game, 0 pts. Michigan, first 6 drives Michigan had all got into scoring position, and came away with a whopping 7 pts. Fresno St, for lack of a better phrase scored during "scrub minutes".

I will provide a bias opinion and believe Oregon wins this game because:

DD is playing a lot better and is more consistent that Longshore is right now, and a lot more mobile than Nate.
I believe our RB combo is better than Forsett/Best
DB's, I don't even know if the SEC could throw a bunch of True Sophomores out there and come away with a +7 TO ratio
Crowd, granted Tennessee holds over 100,000 fans, but Autzen has been known as one of the loudest crowds in the nation. Longshore will be in for a long day Saturday.

"Autzen's 59,000 strong make the Big House [Michigan] sound like a pathetic whimper. It's louder that 'The Swamp' at Florida, 'The Shoe' in Columbus and 'Death Valley' at Louisiana State. Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die."

by socalduck on Sep 27, 2007 12:06 PM PDT reply actions

Oregon's Defense

I have not seen Oregon play live this year, so I cannot say their defense is overrated/underrated/whatever. Giving up 31 points to Stanfurd isn't a big deal so long as you score 55 to trump it, and since we are familiar with the Pac-10 we understand that high-scoring affairs are simply the nature of the beast.

I didn't need to watch the game to realize that giving up only seven points to Michigan on the road qualifies as a solid defensive performance. Is it the best this unit is capable of? Or is it an anomaly considering the 31 points to the 'Furd and the 27 to Houston?

I think it's safe to say both Cal and Oregon's defenses take a backseat to their respective offenses, and that whoever wins Saturday will earn passage to gloat about a superior defense to the other team. Shocking, I know.

by Eli on Sep 27, 2007 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I meant...

Oregon St's own side of the field

by socalduck on Sep 27, 2007 12:07 PM PDT reply actions

All will be known soon enough

Good post. As a Cal fan, I don't agree with some of your exclusions. But as you said--it's an Oregon fan site. Everything will be known come Saturday afternoon. Thanks for the friendly banter this week.

by joshiemac on Sep 27, 2007 2:25 PM PDT reply actions