IMO those are the keys to an Oregon victory.

Achieving offensive balance late in the season – just enough passing game to open up a huge running game – had the Ducks making scoreboards in Eugene and Corvallis looking like pinball machines.The Ducks seem to have found their stride, and if they’re clicking out of the gate tonight another OSU in orange and black may suffer much the same fate as the last OSU in orange and black.

As for predictions: I like the Ducks for three rushing TDs. Masoli gets his 200 passing yards and finds the end zone twice. My crystal ball keeps telling me J-Will is going to finish his Oregon career on positive note (a couple big plays, some nice blocks downfield, maybe even a TD). Maehl and Scott both have an impact, though they are bottled up by an OSU team who comes in well prepared for Oregon’s new pet play – Masoli rolling to the sideline and throwing that kind of delayed bubble screen.

When OSU takes that play away, Chip looks for Ed Dickson in the middle of the field. And Ed has a very big game.

The Ducks score more than enough points to win. So it comes down to defense.

I’ve been one of loudest critics of Oregon’s defensive scheme and coaching. But this is no time to change the team’s basic defensive philosophy. When you’re facing the Big XII’s leading rusher – Kendall Hunter – AND the leading receiver – Dez Bryant – you stop the run first and make the other team beat you through the air.

Hunter (RB, #24) rushed for 1,518 and 14 TDs this season. Only Oklahoma and Texas A&M held him under the century mark this season. He also catches the ball out of the backfield, a look Oregon should be prepared for as OSU looks to defuse Oregon’s pass rush pressure. Keith Toston (RB, #5) will back up Hunter for 5 to 10 carries and isn’t much of a drop off.

Zac Robinson (QB, #11) threw for 2,735 and 24 TDs, with only 8 INTs. His favorite target is a rising star in sophomore Dez Bryant (WR, #1). An interesting take on Bryant…he is top shelf, no doubt, but he was held under 100 yards against Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. He scored just 2 TDs in those three games. Oregon has the talent to at least contain Bryant to respectable numbers. He’ll have an impact, don’t get me wrong, but Oregon’s late-season formula for beating good teams did allow for one receiver having a big game (OSU – Stroughter, AZ – Gronkowski).

A wild card for Oklahoma State on offense? Watch for Brandon Pettigrew (TE, #87). He’s no Rob Gronkowski, but Pettigrew did catch 36 passes for 421 yards and would’ve stood out even more this season had he not missed four games early on. More important, he came up big as a playmaker against Texas (8-83) and Texas Tech (7-75). He doesn’t score TDs, but he keeps the Cowboys moving downfield.

More predictions: Facing the spread is no big deal for the Ducks. They do it every day. Oregon plays to its stengths by clamping down on the OSU running game and the Ducks continue to tackle well in space. Nick Reed makes his pressence felt, but the Oregon defense breaks a couple times, maybe a few times. Dez Bryant goes highlight reel on the Ducks, but Oregon turns OSU’s offense is mostly a one-man show.

Then there’s this to consider…

I do not want to overemphasize the Todd Doxey impact on this game. Just the same, it would be naive to ignore it. Members of Todd’s family have attended Holiday Bowl events this week, have spent time with players and coaches, and will attend the game. This is a showcase for the Oregon players – a chance for the entire program to once again pay their respects to the Doxey family while playing in Todd’s hometown of San Diego. This is far from a meaningless bowl game for the Ducks. Oregon will be emotional. Typicially, Oregon teams that are fueled by emotion are hard to beat. A hunger to win is often a huge factor in non-BCS bowl games. This time the Ducks have that hunger.

Oregon 41, OSU 31.