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By the Numbers; Pac-10 Red Zone Defense

So to help with the down time, I figured I would crunch a few numbers on a rarely used, but extremely telling statistics. Many duck fans don't like Nick Allotti's defensive schemes. While Bellotti often calls it "Bend but don't break defense", apparently Allotti doesn't care for that title.

Call it whatever you want, it definitely doesn't match what old typical Big-12 teams would call a "Good Defense". Ted Miller touched in this a bit in his mail bag earlier this week. 7th in the Pac-10 isn't great, but I could care less if we were 10th in the Pac-10. In my opinion, the best gauge of defensive effectivity is when it gets cornered into their own Red Zone. Suddenly, Oregon doesn't look too bad.

Redzone_medium

Star-divide

As you can see, the two Oregon teams tied for giving up the least red zone TD, but our in-state bragging right friends enjoy the cake for the least points allowed overall.

While USC allowed less scoring opportunities than Oregon, Oregon still allowed 6 less total points on the year. Across the town, UCLA, despite giving a shutout, gave up 23 TDs in the red zone. Arizona State fared alright, more or less being the middle of the Pac-10, separating the great defensive red zone performances, from... the rest. California really got hurt in the red zone, and they'll be looking to make some improvements here as they almost gave up twice as many red zone points (255 not including PAT) as Oregon (138) and Oregon State (129) on the year.

But this still isn't a great gauge of defensive efficiency, for that, we'll have to compare these numbers to the number of times a defense had to make a stand in the Red Zone.

Dattemptredzone_medium

About the biggest anomaly that jumps out is that out of 37 Red Zone stands, Arizona State allowed a team to score 33 times. A few other things that are note worthy is how the Golden Bears had to take a defensive red zone stand nearly 20% more than any other team. Ouch! But there is one more thing that is a bit more subtle in there too. The Ducks had to make a defensive stand in their own twenty-yard line 42 times. When we relate these two statistics together, we get a very interesting story to tell.

Dpercentagesredzone_medium

As you can see, Oregon's defense had a pretty steller Red Zone Efficiency. Bend, but don't break indeed. OSU and even Stanford deserve some props for their efforts too. Considering how many times California got pushed back, I don't think they really did too bad. They have a few Red Zone kinks to iron out for '08, as does Arizona State, who statistically collapsed when they got in the red zone.

Washington State, Arizona, UCLA gave up a TD over 60% of the time as well.

As a Duck fan, I can't say I'm disappointed with this. Despite Allotti's protest over it, Oregon really demonstrated a Bend but Don't Break defense that works.

But the leader on the defensive side is wanting to quiet some of the people that like to point out Oregon's defense was 7th last year.

"We were bend but don't break," safety Patrick Chung said. "We're trying not to bend this year." - Rivals.com

I honestly don't think it matters if we give up a lot of yards. Preventing points is what matter the most.

I know that these numbers do not factor in all TD allowed, like big plays of 20+, but there is no good way I can do that without going into every box score of each Pac-10 game. That's something I don't feel like doing right now

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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Great post Joe

To quell the impending Beaver trolls, you should note that teams like ASU and SC and Cal were going for it a lot in our red zone with the whole “make a statement” attitude. Though another testament to our Red Zone D when we stopped them, that’s another variable.

Your friendly neighborhood placekicker.

by qrsouther on Aug 15, 2008 12:52 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah.....we need to shut them up every now and then

I really didn’t realize the extent of the Duck bashing going on at Building the Dam until I visited the other day. Every other topic is about how bad we are and how they are so awesomely underrated. Bleh. Good Call

by hazmat5793 on Aug 15, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep

I thought it was best to ignore it. It’s less of a Beaver blog and more of a Duck hunting enthusiasts convention.

Your friendly neighborhood placekicker.

by qrsouther on Aug 15, 2008 2:14 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's actually quite sad...

The blog was very good for a while. Granted, there are more posts now, but the writing quality has dipped dramatically and homer content has increased exponentially.

We are the power. We are the flower. We are the awesome blossom.
--www.AddictedToQuack.com

by jtlight on Aug 15, 2008 2:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jake still seems to be keeping things in check

I like his writing and he’s fair a lot of the time, but CV3000, their esteemed “editor”…

Your friendly neighborhood placekicker.

by qrsouther on Aug 15, 2008 2:40 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's a good point...

But I wasn’t exactly trying to rub the Beavers’ face into anything. I gave them credit. They performed very well in the same area – close to the same as the Ducks.

Those teams really did give a great attempt to get into the endzone, but measuring their tenacity via statistics isn’t all that easy.

Go Duckies!

by JShufelt on Aug 15, 2008 2:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Statistics!

“measuring their tenacity via statistics isn’t all that easy”

That is a hilarious picture.

Go Duckies!

by JShufelt on Aug 17, 2008 10:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1 SB > 1 CS

;P

Your friendly neighborhood placekicker.

by qrsouther on Aug 18, 2008 7:41 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great analysis. Depressing. But great.

"Save The Oaks: Overthrow Capitalism" said Dumpster Muffin sanguinely

www.CaliforniaGoldenBlogs.com

by TwistNHook on Aug 18, 2008 10:26 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Time of Possession

Another factor going into the yards we give up is the time of possession statistic. We were last in the Pac 10 I believe, but this statistic is overrated. Our offense was so efficient and quick that other teams had more possessions and had the ball longer, thus giving them more yards. Yards don’t win games…points do. Red Zone defense and offense along with turnovers and penalties are the best predictors in my opinion.

by DucksPhan on Aug 19, 2008 12:07 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's actually a really good point.

Now I know what my next “by the numbers” will be!

Go Duckies!

by JShufelt on Aug 19, 2008 12:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look out SABR!

Your friendly neighborhood placekicker.

by qrsouther on Aug 19, 2008 2:30 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Non Red-Zone Scores

I think to really evaluate a defense you have to include the long scores as well. You can be the toughest team in the red zone in the country, but if your d-backs continually get burned for long TDs your D isn’t very good. This site has some easy to find stats:

http://www.cfbstats.com/2007/team/529/index.html

which show that Oregon allowed a total of 33 touchdowns and 18 field goals. That means 16 touchdowns and 6 field goals came from outside the red zone. For comparison, the Beavs had 32 total touchdowns, which means 15 were long ones.

How about this: what is the ratio of opponent scores to number of possessions? Does it really matter where the defense stops them (ignoring field position) as long as they keep the ball out of the end zone?

by jfwells on Aug 19, 2008 9:46 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have no time for simple subtraction!

Actually, you’re going in a different direction than I intended. I didn’t actually dive in to these stats really knowing what would come out, and I was rather surprised. Especially considering some like to pull out the 7th rank pass defense stat, which is a complete bullshit statistic.

I’ve used cfbstats a lot, but they still lack a lot of good information (Like total number of possessions, like you mentioned). I’m sorta hoping to get a series of posts about pac-10 stats running throughout the season, and I’ll have an easier time doing stuff like that then. Sorting box scores for 65 games isn’t exactly a quick thing. However, 5 games a week is much more manageable.

Go Duckies!

by JShufelt on Aug 19, 2008 11:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Unfortunately, there are going to be more than 5 games a week when teams are playing OOC. I would be willing to help out with some data-entry once you figure out what you are going to be tracking.

by jfwells on Aug 20, 2008 1:43 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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