Oregon looks to end Trojan dominance on Saturday night
by jtlight on Oct 28, 2009 2:42 PM PDT
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PrintYear in, and year out, it's all about the Trojans. Six straight years of winning the Pac-10 (and yes, I only count it winning the Pac-10 if you take the top bowl slot). But here's what I find most impressive: Since 2002, USC has not lost a game by more than 7 points. I don't even want to try and count the number of Oregon losses by more than a touchdown since the Ducks last won a Pac-10 title. It is simply disgusting what USC has accomplished under Pete Carrol.
But this weekend, Oregon has a chance to end that run of USC dominance in dramatic fashion.
First of all, if the Trojans do not win this game, it will be very tough for them to win the Pac-10 title. They will be 3 games behind Oregon in the race for the Rose Bowl, with a very good Arizona team still on the schedule.
But, this is the first Oregon team in some time that I've really thought has not only the team that can run with the Trojans, but run over them.
Now, this game will not be easy. USC is, as always, a very good football team. They are talented at every position, and are particularly experienced at running back and offensive line. They also have talented receivers that will test Oregon's depleted secondary like they have no been tested this season.
On defense, they have one of the best players in the country in Taylor Mays, whose ability to cover the entire field can make up for mistakes made by other players. The Trojan front seven is as fast or faster as the Oregon front seven.
They are a very good football team. Yet, there seems to be something missing. For the talent that is on this team, they have not been beating teams as is expected. Ohio State is a mediocre football team, and yet they couldn't move the ball for 3 1/2 quarters. Only the offensive ineptitude of Jim Tressel kept the Trojans in the game. They lost to a Washington squad because they couldn't stop Jake Locker on his final drive, and backup QB Aaron Corp turned in a simply terrible performance throwing the ball. After handling Cal on the road, in what has been their most impressive victory of the season, they struggled against Notre Dame and Oregon State. While niether of these teams are bad, they are teams that USC had chances to put away. But they did not do that.
It's as if USC were Teddy KGB, and his opponents were just hanging around, and hanging around.
Oregon's season has gone quite different. The Ducks, after struggling through the first few games, have learned how to put the hammer down on the opposition. They blew out Cal and WSU. Then, they went on the road against UCLA and Washington, and though the Ducks struggled in the beginning, showed that it can bury a team in a matter of minutes.
Unlike previous Oregon teams, that have seemed to let up at times, and allowed other teams to stay in games, these Ducks have ended that. When there are opportunities or big plays to be made, these Ducks make them. When the offense makes a big play, the defense ups the ante. If the defense comes up with a big stop, the offense will drive the length of a field for a score.
In this game, I feel that the matchups are very even. The Ducks have a more explosive offense that has been hit or miss throughout the season, much like USC. Both defenses have been excellent this year (outside of USC's baffling issues the last 2 games). Both teams are deep and have strong special teams. Both teams will be well-prepared and well coached. These are two good football teams, with a lot of talent.
Because of this, I feel that this game will come down to which team has that flair for the dramatic, to which team responds to the turnovers and big plays. The game will go to the team can grab momentum and run with it. Oregon has shown that ability and USC has not.
Autzen will be at full capacity and will be out for blood. With Oregon on a roughly even playing field with the Trojans, I can see them turning a play here or there, and before you know it, the Ducks are up, and up for good.
With an explosive offense and stout defense, I don't see this Duck team letting up. They will fight hard to the final minute.
And due to the hard work these Ducks have been putting in every week, they have a chance to do something very special this Halloween night, and emphatically end 7 years of USC dominance.
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I had a dream Sunday night. We won 34-10. I don’t know what that means, but it fits your idea of running the Trojans over.
It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
If we get the ball rolling, I just don’t see it stopping very easily….
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH. CAN IT BE SATURDAY NIGHT ALREADY PLEASE?
Autzen - where teams go to R.I.P.
BCS, you make me tired.
by MarineCorpsDuck on Oct 28, 2009 3:07 PM PDT reply actions
Seriously. I can’t believe it’s still only Wednesday. Ridiculous.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
Your calculations appear to be correct
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
India loves the Ducks!
It’s official!
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
well, I’m not near as confident as I was about this. But….we have as good a shot to beat USC as we have had over the past 7 years.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I bet CV had a good laugh at that before everything blew up in his face.
Autzen - where teams go to R.I.P.
BCS, you make me tired.
by MarineCorpsDuck on Oct 28, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the guys in the trenches are going to be key
Give Masoli some time to throw so he can get the the passing game going early. That should open up holes for LMJ and the running attack.
On the defensive side, getting to Barkley is going to be HUGE. Make the kid make mistakes. Force him into quick decisions.
So far, neither of our lines has let us down, despite questions marks. But this is by far their biggest test. Do those two things, and I like the Ducks chances of not only winning, but winning decisively.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
Gorby, you couldn't be more right!
Oregon has had trouble over the years at the line of scrimmage with the trojans. Even when we had a good defensive line last year, we were not able to fill gaps, get in the backfield or get after the QB, and USC made us pay for it. Last week’s game was a test for the secondary and the LB’s and I must say they passed with flying colors. Now while the secondary will get tested some against USC, the thought of Barkely having to beat us doesn’t worry me as much as the RB’s for the trojans chewing up yards and clock on the ground.
The D line needs to fill gaps, take on blockers to give our LB’s room to get after the RB and the QB. Our O line has to hold their blocks just long enough for Masoli to make a read or for LMJ to find a hole. If that happens, Oregon will have a very good chance of taking this one.
I read a Scouts Inc preview about Bair being undersized against USC’s line and all that. If the line doesn’t get flat out pushed around, and our O-line doesn’t get obliterated like it did last season, we will be in a great position.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I read that Scouts piece. It was interesting, but I’m more concerned with Bair keeping his freaking hands in a place where they won’t cost us 15 yards.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
I think that was just a freak thing. He wasn’t doing anything different than normal, and that was the first time he got it this year.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I don't think Bair is really the concer
USC runs a lot more HB sweeps and off tackle. Not as many dive plays. They really try and use their speed to get to the edges. The bigger concern is Tukuafu, Ferras and Toeaina taking on 2 blockers on the edge and letting Matthews, Rowe, pleasant and Paysinger fire between the gaps and make tackles.
This game should be a good test of USC’s new offensive coaches. Oregon isn’t all that strong straight up the middle. USC has the linemen that they may try to just straight up push us around, and go up the middle with Bradford. I like our chances a lot better if they go outside than in.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I agree, but that really isn’t USC’s strongpoint. Carroll likes to take the bal to the edges with the RB’s and let their speed do the work. UW did a good job of blocking off tackle last week with Polk and I would see USC trying to do a lot of the same. Our safeties are really going to need to be able to come up and help stop the run… here’s hoping for a Ward circa Holiday Bowl type game.
I was at that bowl game.
I felt his whopper of a hit on Robinson from my seats. I swear, it had to register on the richter scale
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
It’ll also be interesting to see the defensive gameplan when the defense is more worried about stopping the running backs than the quarterback.
I’d like to keep the safeties back covering the pass rather than needing them to come up.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I disagree, i think if TJ3 is healthy you play one on one at the corners with either Lewis or Boyett playing over the top help. Then bring the other one up to help stop the run. You need to keep USC in 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations. They don’t run a lot of screens or misdirection plays, they realy just come straight at you and try and over power you with size or speed. So let’s call them on it and make them beat us over the top. Once again, if the main thing I have to worry about is Barkley throwing deep precision passes in Autzen against our speed… I’ll take it
Plus, I do believe weather will help determine gameplan
Rainy and windy and cold – stack the box!!!!
At the same rate,
Masoli does not play well in this weather either (We can only speculate that Barkley won’t like it)…If it comes down to running game vs. running game (Due to weather), USC may be in better shape…We need to make Barkley throw as much as possible.
I heart you Juju
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
by CaDuck on Oct 28, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s true, I wasn’t thinking about the weather. That will be key.
What I would like most to see is just the basic unpredictability of our defense. Bring up safety help at times, don’t at others. If we can establish early that we can hold the USC defense in check without much safety help, then we can do pretty much whatever we want on defense for the rest of the day, while keeping them afraid of going deep due to safety help. There’s risk either way. Mixing it up will be the most important thing.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I agree! If we Confuse the hell out of Barkley...
Interceptions will follow
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
Barner...
Needs solid, heady play. No muffs. No fumbles. Stay the hell away from the ball inside the 10 or when there are opposing players within spitting distance. If he plays solid on special teams 90% of my butt puckering will be eliminated. Oh, and get the snaps down!
I am no fan of Dear Leader...
by Fishdude on Oct 28, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec for use of the phrase “butt puckering.” There is nothing, NOTHING I hate more than turnovers on special teams. Your defense has either just worked their butts off and gotten a stop, or just worked their butts off but given up a score. Don’t give them the ball back!
Defending maligned chants since 2009
Seriously, this may not be that easy
On the one hand, I can’t help a gut feeling we’re going to wipe them out and it’s going to be something like 45-10 or 35-17.
On the other hand, it could be one of those gut-wrenching tight ones, close throughout (2007, 24-17).
USC certainly has a record to be proud of – sheer consistency, with no more than 2 losses in any year going back to 2003 (that’s only how far back I bothered to check).
FWIW, here are their only losses since 2003:
Losses by USC
===
2009: Washington (13-16)
??
2008: Oregon State (21-27)
2007: Stanford (23-24)
Oregon (17-24)
2006: Oregon State (31-33)
UCLA (9-13)
2005: – UNDEFEATED in REG SEASON
Texas (38-41, NC)
2004: – UNDEFEATED in REG SEASON
2003: Cal (31-34)
It’s not going to be easy, that’s for sure.
But couldn’t you see this game being 13-10 USC in the 3rd quarter, and then on two consecutive drives Oregon scores two touchdowns? Oregon has been stellar with the momentum this season, and they could turn this game in a heartbeat.
USC is very good and talented football team, but they haven’t shown the ability to control games like they have in the past. Oregon’s been inconsistent offensively as well, which is a worry, but they have also been ridiculously explosive….
I can’t wait until Saturday….
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I officially love the third quarter.
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
totally
One thing I can guarantee – our scores will take less time than their scores. Yep, if that’s not true, that will be the SHOCKING stat of the day….
Sigh. Is it not Saturday yet? I really don’t know how I’m going to last. Is it possible to expire from sheer anticipation??
by gamedaytribe on Oct 28, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Penalties
We have to avoid penalties at all costs..I have a feeling those might be the difference in the game.
I'm looking at YOU Bair!!!
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
And TJ, no frigging pointless personal fouls, please!!
by gamedaytribe on Oct 28, 2009 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I think we can eliminate the qualifier and just say “No personal fouls, PERIOD.” I have yet to see one that had a point.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
Unlike Mays' blatant facemask against Rodgers
That was not called last week!
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
That was not TJ’s fault, but the refs. They didn’t blow the GD whistle.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Hmm..
Really? Coverage said that the refs had blown it. But the way he did it, when the guy was down (I realize he was on a duck player, but nevertheless). i.e. don’t even give them a chance to call it..he was going nowhere…
by gamedaytribe on Oct 28, 2009 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
It doesn’t matter, he was never “down” by rule. The ref never blew the whistle. And then TJ forced the ref to call the whistle. I don’t fault him at all. Pac-10 refs suck.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
The Pac 10 refs certainly suck, no doubt about that. I was about to write a complaint about how the crackdown on illegal and potentially dangerous hits (late hits, hits on defenseless players, roughing the passer, facemasks, horsecollars) has been taken a bit too far, and then I remembered Taylor Mays’s blatant facemask on Quizz last week that wasn’t called.
And so I will leave you with the wise words of one “jtlight”: Pac-10 refs suck.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
then I remembered Taylor Mays’s blatant facemask on Quizz last week that wasn’t called.
That was James actually.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
My apologies. I was chasing my children down at the time and didn’t actually hear the announcement – just saw Rodgers on the back and assumed.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
Yeah.
Believe me, if it were Quizz, heads would roll.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
Duck Store
in downtown Portland was packed today at a random time this afternoon. Table with the goofy “fright night” shirts was almost empty. fortunately, they had a white visor to complete my Chip Kelly costume. The answer to every question sat night will be “Win the day!”
Life is about growth. People are not perfect when they're 21 years old. - Bill Walton
If "win the day" is not appropriate,
Go with “day to day”. “Hey! how you going man?” -“Day to day”…Brilliant
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
"How you going man" I'm not sure what that actually means...
Lets try “How is it going man?”
On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"
In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants
Dr Saturday has an interesting piece on the Ducks
Please go over there and give him some hits!
I would like to see general media get a response when they cover Oregon, mostly because of my view that some people tend to cover USC, Notre Dame, SEC etc just simply to get the viewer hits. I really like Dr Saturday’s coverage (even if he’s wrong) of college football.
I don’t think he sees Oregon’s passing ability that positively. I’m much more respectful of and pleased with the Oregon passing game than he seems to be.
As much as Hinton dismisses the secondary, it’s simply incredible what competent safety play will do. TJ Ward was simply terrible as pass defender last year against USC (and maybe not only against them). But we have competent to great safeties, and John Boyett is proving to be the reincarnation of Jeff Sherman. With a decent pass rush, I’ll take whatever USC can throw at us.
p.s. Matt Hinton is one of the best. He knows what Oregon is doing.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Oct 28, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for truth
Hinton is one of the best in the business. Read him daily and there is nothing more that I like to see than some Duck love.
by SeattleDucks on Oct 29, 2009 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Boyett - yeah!
Wow, Boyett has been a revelation these past few games… hope he keeps it up.
oops
Sorry, meant in reply to jtlight’s previous comment
by gamedaytribe on Oct 28, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions
These Trojans simply do not scare me
Like they always have the last several years.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Same boat man, same boat
--Dominic, Addicted to Quack
Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die." - J. Brady McCullough, The Michigan Daily.
The last game I was confident for...
was Boise State. I had a feeling before that game that the Men in white would travel east, impose their will and exact revenge….well, crap.
Since then I’ve spent every game pacing beforehand and during. This week will be no different. Except I’m going to have a bowl of “fun size” candy to pace with.
"It amazes me that you understand (...) the number one play of what their offense is and what they do best, AND you still can't stop it!" - Craig James
by AcadianTraverse on Oct 28, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm just exhausted waiting
BTW, ESPN’s home page link to college football has an awesome pic of Autzen fans. It’s different from the pic they’re running on the College Football home. Check it out, it could be you :)
I will be cheering on UO but...
I probably won’t pick them in a pick ‘em contest. Maybe I will take them to beat the spread or give low confidence points to USC. Maybe I have been drinking too much cardinal punch (Spoiled Children don’t have kool aid). I hope the ducks prove me wrong.
Oh, and I really don’t care if UO jumps BSU in the polls. All we (both teams) can do is, win. Besides, LOSING SUCKS!!!
I love the colors Orange and Blue. Go Broncos!!! Go Titans!!!
If we lose the game but beat the spread (of 3), I think my head will explode. :-D
LaMichael's number is 21 because "7 7 7" doesn't fit on a jersey.
by ProbablyMonty on Oct 29, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions
To add to this article a bit….
Football Outsiders had an article on ESPN (insider only) about first and second half performance, and quoted these numbers on first and second half performance.
Long story short, Oregon is 80th in offensive FEI in the first half this season, but is 6th in the second half. Meanwhile, the USC defense has regressed from 2nd to 17th from first to second half. FO has this summation:
In other words, if the Ducks can keep things close until halftime, they’ll have a chance to knock out one of the nation’s defensive powerhouses.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
A Duck fan friend of mine was asking about the first quarter play calling we’ve seen this season. My response was that I believe Chip is throwing specific looks at each team to determine how they will align to defend certain plays. It’s all adjustments and taking what the defense is giving from there. That, and our offense seems designed to wear a team down as the game gets into the second half. Chip strikes me as being methodical and patient with his approach, which he can be so long as the defense is holding teams down like we’ve seen.
No reason to believe the approach against USC will be different. If the Ducks start fast Saturday, it will probably be due to a special teams play, a big turnover or some kind of defensive mistake by USC.
By the grace of Juju, we all are day-to-day.
by JConant on Oct 29, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Most definitely. Chip has been doing this for quite a while. What I also like is that the staff has been making adjustments, which they did not do against BSU.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I think this is something that is often overlooked...
I think a lot of people wonder why we throw screen after screen and I’ve always thought it’s because Chip is feeling the defense out. I can recall watching some games with friends (especailly the first quarter last week) where they get frustrated immediately with Chip’s playcalling…I always tell them to have patience.
Our offense is like the Patriots…feel things out, and if something it working (like screen passes) then you just keep doing it until the defense can stop it; but yes, I’ve always thought that our offense was designed to feel out the defense’s strategies and then attack those alignments in the second half. Chip himself has said that halftime adjustments are overrated since you don’t have a lot of time to change things, so they must prepare multiple game plans during the week and then tweak things accordingly at halftime.
The way this team has prepared for games this year has been astonishing, and I think Chip trusts our defense to keep us in games through the first half, and then at halftime they can unleash their game plan accordingly.
That is the argument for scripted playcalling
I know there are a lot of people who don’t like it because it means you’re not considering all the variables and it delays the offensive adjustments. But I don’t think it’s Chips plan to do everything he can to score on the first drive of the game. The goal of his scripted playcalling seems to me to be exactly what you’ve stated; see what the defensive alignments are for your looks and force their defensive line and line backers to move outside the box. And lately, it’s been working well.
I don’t expect to see a team “pulling out all the stops” to win Saturday. What the team has been doing is working, and I think they’ll stick to it.
"It amazes me that you understand (...) the number one play of what their offense is and what they do best, AND you still can't stop it!" - Craig James
by AcadianTraverse on Oct 29, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
REC'D because its true
"I used to play sports. Then I realized you can buy trophies. Now I'm good at everything." - Demetri Martin
Pac-10 Rankings
I don’t think even if we beat USC that we should move above them, I mean we have to move above Boise State, cause it was their Super Bowl/BCS Bowl Game/New Year’s celebration/birthday all rolled into one, and we have a better overall schedule, but we can’t seriously think that we should move ahead of USC, because that will be our biggest game of the year, and they have a better overall schedule, I guess this whole head to head stuff doesn’t really matter anyway.
Pssst -- Kaz...
Your blue and orange are showing. Might wanna wear a hoodie or something to cover that up. ;-)
LaMichael's number is 21 because "7 7 7" doesn't fit on a jersey.
Whoops
That should have been a reply to the above.
LaMichael's number is 21 because "7 7 7" doesn't fit on a jersey.
by ProbablyMonty on Oct 29, 2009 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions
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