This week should tell us quite a bit about the Oregon defense
by jtlight on Oct 9, 2009 2:40 PM PDT
in Oregon Ducks Football
Email
PrintThere's been a lot of talk about Nate Costa, Jeremiah Masoli, and the rest of the Oregon offense as the Ducks prepare to take on UCLA at the Rose Bowl tomorrow afternoon.
But I'm not worried about the offense. Nate Costa has looked solid in his play against Cal and Washington State. He has the physical skills as well as the leadership skills to be very successful. Though he doesn't have a lot of game experience, he has been at Oregon since 2006 and knows the system, and I'm confident we'll be just fine with Costa leading the charge.
On Saturday, I'll be paying attention to the defense.
Oregon's defense is better than it was last season. The improved play of the safeties and linebackers has led to excellent pass defense, and the defensive line has grown significantly in the past few games and is not only holding their own, but making plays left and right.
Meanwhile, UCLA hasn't shown a great offense. They're averaging less than 5 yards per play, and barely over 300 yards per game. Although they've faced good defenses, the Bruins don't strike fear into my heart.
Of course, I thought the same thing last year, and UCLA matched Oregon in first downs and almost matched the Ducks in total yards. This weekend's game gives the Duck defense an opportunity to finally put its stamp on the season.
We've seen the Duck defense have a great performance here and there (though it's been significantly better in the last three games), but every time we start to believe in the unit, they seem to falter against less than stellar offenses. Last season against UCLA and Stanford, teams that were far from offensive juggernauts, Oregon struggled to get off the field and simply did not play up to what we expected.
Part of the issue could be that our expectations were flawed, and that those performances were good representations of the Oregon defense in 2008. But 2009 seems different. We have more skill at the linebacker position than we've had in many years. We have tremendous versatility that the coaching staff has used very well so far this year.
Regardless of which defense shows up, I still think the Ducks will win this game. I see Oregon putting up 24-31 points, and holding UCLA to at most 21. But this defense has the talent, depth, and versatility to be great, despite its losses in the secondary.
If Oregon is the team we want them to be, this defense will turn in a dominating performance, and keep the mediocre UCLA offense down for the game, something they weren't able to do last year. They will limit the 3rd down conversions (UCLA converted at a 45% rate in lasts year's game), limit them to less then 4 yards per play, and keep the UCLA offense off the field. And they will do this on the road in a traditionally hostile environment.
The Ducks have the chance to prove that they are among the best defenses in the Pac-10, or if they will regress to the defensive performances we've seen over the past few years. They have a number of advantages against the Bruins offense, and it's time to prove that week in and week out, they can give a dominating performance against any offense, especially those they should be expected to stop.
54 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
You said it all. If the defense is as good as we think, the Ducks should win this game regardless of if the offense plays great or not…as long as turnovers by the offense or special teams don’t hamstring the defense and basically “give away” points. For the love of Juju, can we go ONE GAME without a fumbled kickoff or punt return? These guys are taking years off my life every time it happens.
Guy behind me at Autzen says "why do the fans yell 'OOO' when we are on D?" He then proceeds to yell "DEEEEEEEE" on every defensive play for the rest of the game. As Carlos Mencia would say, "Dee DeeDee".
I would like to believe that
Prince will try and stretch the field and pick on Gildon. However, I would also like to believe our front 7 will confuse and overmatch the UCLA O-line putting pressure and helmets on Prince – not giving him time to go down field. That will leave them with running the ball and short passes, and I think our athleticism will keep that in check.
I do not expect a shut out, and wouldn’t be surprised if they work the field and put up some points.
Ducks 35 – UCLA 17
I am no fan of Dear Leader...
I think they’ll be more balanced than Cal. Cal got exposed for likely being a one-trick pony – until Riley shows he can carry a team on his shoulders.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-H-I-M-S-E-L-F"
Also, I think playing Cal in Cal would have been a different game for our D
I think getting them at home really helped the D with confusion. I too am very interested to see how the new looks Aliotti has been throwing out there this year fare in a hostile road enviornment.
At Boise there were times when our D looked confused and disorganized. Not sure if that was first game jitters or something bigger about being on the road.
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
seems to me
that Boise did a whole lot of shifting before the snap and that led to the confusion
Under winter skies
We stand glorious
And with Oden on our side
We are victorious
Great post,
Agreed, this weekend will tell us alot about this Duck D.
42-3, 65-38...So many scores to choose from!
Remene "The Gentleman" Alston!
Who's offense is better than whose defense?
In total defense:
Rank Name
20 UCLA
28 Oregon
Our offense is woeful but we have Prince back in. Your offense is a little down this week. This is going to be a good game.
Troy will fall...AGAIN!
I fail to see what that stat has to do with the point of the post. UCLA has a good defense, though I’ll not that against superior offenses, Oregon is giving up less yards per play and the teams are almost identical at pass efficiency defense.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Your two best defensive performances were against
Washington St. and Cal. Forgive ME if I’m not impressed either
Troy will fall...AGAIN!
by Bruins102NCAA on Oct 9, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Cal will be back...
and our defense was stellar against UTAH, held us in the game against BSU and scored twice against Purdue.
And Tennessee
scored 15 points on us in TN while they scored 13 against the Gators in Florida. What all this means is not much. We have a good defense but you will come to know that from this game whatever the outcome.
Troy will fall...AGAIN!
by Bruins102NCAA on Oct 9, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Besides...
this one in response to a stat that you posted that is meaningless. Our defense played against:
BSU – #9 yards/play
Purdue – #26 yards/play
Cal – #39 yards/play
Utah – #39 yards/pay
WAZZU – #115 yards/play
and yours:
Stanford – #12
Tennesse – #58
Kansas State – #76
San Diego State – #88
So, your competition averaged #63 and ours #45
In yards against,
We are #7 and you are #15.
Upon further review, maybe stats are meaningless…
My feel for the game is this:
-UCLA is going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball – 21 tops.
-I have no gauge on our offense. We have the type of offense that could dominate like we did against Cal (a team that has tremendous talent on the d side of the ball) or UCLA could really punish us if we are out of sync because of injuries.
we were out of synch our 1st game, w/all our starters
just saying…. so far this year. we never know which of our ’offense’s will show up. we cant really blame it on injuries
our team has not regressed once
this year. we went from awful, to very bad, to bad, to unstoppable. so knowing which offense will show up would not be a problem for me if we were healthy.
wants to challenge the definitions of sin and search the world for lovers of ultimate beauty but never settle in.
by joffthedeckk on Oct 10, 2009 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
First off, stats can be bent anyway you want
So, I’m not leaning on them in saying our defense is good. I know this for a fact. First, Stanford is a good team and I dare say better than Boise St. on offense. Second, is that pre of post-meltdown Cal? We don’t really know until everything is said and done.
At this point, neither team has played a truly epic offense. Utah and Purdue do not impress me. I’m sure you will find that K-state and Tennessee do not impress you. Saying your offense is better than ours is one thing, but saying your defense is also, well that is a horse of a different color.
Troy will fall...AGAIN!
by Bruins102NCAA on Oct 9, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I kid...
man, I never said that our defense was better. It was an exercise in the ambiguity of stats. Of course, tomorrow we could outgain you and never know which defense is better.
BSU’s offense is better than Stanford’s.
It's cool
I know what your saying and I agree with most of it. Have a good game tomorrow.
Troy will fall...AGAIN!
by Bruins102NCAA on Oct 9, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I never think the "numbers tell the story"
the only numbers that actually matter…FINAL SCORE. We will find out in a matter of hours who has the better number
I hate knee injuries.
The masses have spoken, Kevin Prince it is!
I bet you like RBIs too.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
And using wins to determine which pitcher is better
CC Sabathia > Zack Greinke = FAIL
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
Well said
This is a scary game, simply because of all the injuries, on both sides of the ball. But Oregon has the talent to get it done. I’m hoping Prince is rusty to give the DB’s some confidence and help them get into a rhythm.
I think this may be the first time since the BSU game that it comes down to coaching. If the Bruins defense is on and Costa struggles and either a turnover or special teams play give the Bruins some short fields, this should be a very close game at half time. It’s going to be up to Kelly to make necessary adjustments. Kelly could really shine in this one.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
Prince...
How good is Prince? He is so young and playing with a barely healed fractured jaw – against our defense to boot. Sorry, Prince may be good down the road but now he is not much better than Craft.
My opinion
of Craft (I want to avoid saying anything bad against this kid because I respect him) is that he does not have long ball potential. As we get near the read zone, defenses choke up so to speak. Prince has big play potential. You can get pressure, but there are going to be designed roll-outs where he is going to take some shots. That dramatically changes the character of the game.
Troy will fall...AGAIN!
by Bruins102NCAA on Oct 9, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Oregon will continue letting their corners, even Gildon, mostly fend for themselves. The key is to make UCLA, or any team for that matter, one dimensional. The Ducks can’t afford to lose focus and allow a decent UCLA running game to become a great running game for a day.
UCLA’s defense is good. I have faith in Costa, but I don’t expect him to lead a lot of 80-yard touchdown drives. Points won’t come as easily as they did the past few weeks, which means UCLA won’t become one dimensional simply because they’ve fallen behind by three or four TDs like Cal and Wazzu. I expect the D to continue to play to its strengths…smother the Bruins running game, continue to defend the tight end well and force a relatively inexperienced QB to beat them with long passes. It’s been a good formula so far.
I expect this game to be a physical war. Keys to getting a big road victory: Win field position, error-free special teams play, win the turnover battle.
By the grace of Juju, we all are day-to-day.
I think the turnover battle is going to be huge. The Ducks have been relatively lucky so far in that their high number of turnovers (especially in the Cal game) haven’t come back to bite them the last 4 weeks. I can live with it if Costa throws a pick trying to get the ball downfield. But for the love of Juju, NO FUMBLES ON SPECIAL TEAMS! I WILL GO INSANE.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
I have faith in Costa, but I don’t expect him to lead a lot of 80-yard touchdown drives.
I don’t see why not. Masoli’s pass stats are almost always helped out greatly by yards after catch. Most of his completions are screens and other short passes. He rarely goes deep, and when he does, he is rarely accurate and/or the pass is rarely caught. What leads you to believe that Costa can’t also throw short passes that go for high yards after catch due to our team’s incredible downfield blocking ability?
Fair question.
I don’t expect Costa to execute with the same consistency that we saw from Masoli the past two games. Not on the road in a hostile environment, not against a very athletic UCLA defense. Nate also doesn’t present a defense with the threat to run 60 yards for a TD like Masoli does…they can play Costa a little different.
Of course Costa can make the quick, short throws. Masoli’s real daggers have been the deeper balls that were set up by those passes (see TDs to Ed Dickson). Maybe Costa will throw those the deeper balls right on the money. Maybe he’ll be slight out of sync or less accurate.
Let’s not be myopic about Costa’s recent play. He got garbage time against a Cal team that had quit, and two-plus quarters against an overmatched WSU team. I’m not saying he can’t do it. But there’s nothing you can point to that guarantees he will run this offense as proficiently as Masoli has. As for Bison’s comment above about ball security…watching Costa at practices quite a few times this year, I’d say he share’s Masoli’s tendency to occasionally force a ball into coverage. I’d also say he is a better passer than JM. I’m excited to see what Nate can do.
By the grace of Juju, we all are day-to-day.
I guess my point is just that our offense (under Masoli) seems to work best when the blocking is good. All we seem to ask of Masoli is to read the defense well and hand the ball off, run or deliver short passes to guys that can get into space and get yards after catch.
We will find out soon enough if Costa can do these things well enough to win.
The other problem with mop up duty is...
that you are with the ones. I have two words for you: Ed Dickson. I think Costa can throw him the ball as well. Costa will be out there with LMJ, Drew Davis, Maehl, Dickson, et al., which he hasn’t in garbage time. We reps in practice this week for timing, I am hoping Costa delivers. We know he throws a beautiful ball, is deceptively fast and makes good decision. Let’s hope that it translates well in his first start against a good defense on the road in front of a national audience.
The key to the defenses in this game is who shuts down the run...
If UCLA can stop the run with their front 4 and let the LBs and DBs cover the other 4 offensive guys, Oregon is going to have a hard time moving the ball. If UCLA is forced to bring up a LB or Safety to stop the run, the play action, TE’s, and screens will allow Oregon to move up and down the field easier.
Same goes for Oregon. Oregon needs to be able to create pressure with their front 3 and one other guy. If Oregon is forced to blitz multiple guys throughout the game, or stack the box to keep UCLA from running, the big play threat from Prince becomes a possiblity and they can dominate field position.
My opinion is both will happen and this game will come down to which offense makes plays at the end of the game. I have more faith in Oregon right now to be able to make those plays at the end when needed, then on a Frosh QB who just sat out two weeks and was “rusty” in practice earlier in the week.
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
Prince's passer rating is worse...
he will be rusty and barely healed from a fractured jaw. He is a true freshman. Who is more mobile? I heard on 95.5 or 1080 that Craft was actually more moble but I though this prince kid was suppose to be. I am just curious.
Neither one of them is particularly fleet of foot
….but I’d best it is a push, maybe a slight edge to Prince. Bottom line: neither one of them is going to burn anyone running the ball.
What Price does bring to the game is the ability to stretch a defense with the deep ball. Kevin Craft, God Bless Him, just doesn’t have the arm to throw 30 yard posts or outs. Prince does. Craft’s numbers were entirely respectable last week against Stanford (and shows he has learned a great deal in his year+ at UCLA), but his is a game limited by his physical shortcomings.
Prince has made some bone-headed freshman decisions, but he has some amazing touch on deep balls. During the SDSU game, Prince was dropping balls right where either his receiver could catch it – or no one else could – on 25 yard posts. You’re right that Prince is certainly more susceptible to some head-scratching plays – not reading coverages properly, uh…not playing with his mouth guard in, y’know, his mouth…. – but most UCLA fans will take that and the ability to stretch the field over Craft’s limited tool set.
I watched 3 practices this week.
I think that Costa is more mobile than any of the Bruin qb options and that he is much tougher mentally. I think that Costa has a very nice play package set up for him and, starting right from play one (don’t miss it) from scrimmage, that the Bruins will be kept off balance. By the second half, they will have to blitz in order to get any pressure on Costa and his ability to read the coverage and deliver the ball (his receivers were catching his deep balls as easy as if they were picking them up off the table) will burn their secondary like a fried egg on a smokin’ skillet. This whole exercise has to do with giving him the chance which he has earned. Look for Chad Peppars to break somebody in half. Look for Brandon Bair to become a national name. And if Cliff Harris gets into the game, he might well get a pic-six, he is so quick.
Moseley...
in the comment section is saying we might see a lot of Harris…just wow for a true frosh that missed fall camp.
I'm really excited
To see Cliff, I got a feeling he’s gonna be special.
42-3, 65-38...So many scores to choose from!
Remene "The Gentleman" Alston!
by Dixonforlife07 on Oct 9, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I can only surmise that if we see him...
he is that good. We have the following on the depth chart:
1) Gildon – uber recruit with offers from everyone
2) Peppars – has taken a lot of back up snaps
3) Barner – we know how athletic he is
4) Grady – another athlete
5) Will Wallace – redshirt sophmore that is fast
There really is no need to have Harris burn a redshirt unless he is “that” good.
There’s been some good discussion on the secondary here, and here’s a good Moseley post that he just put up on the young guys.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
It’s more on how I build the Blog Roll than any indictment of Bruins Nation. I typically only put links to sites that I read on a regular basis. BN is very focused on the Bruins, so I tend to not visit them all that often, and thus, had forgotten to add them to the roll. But for Bruin stuff, you can’t get any better. That’s for bringing my oversight to my attention. Also, I’ve updated a few other links to sites I check out on a daily basis, so check that out if you’re so inclined.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
If you actually read Bruins Nation you'd have some insight
That blog features a few writers who are, to put it as politely as possible, at the left end of the bell curve in terms of writing talent.
Even if BN was omitted from AtQ’s blogroll as an oversight, you should remain thankful for not easily finding it.
Roses Ain't Orange!
I wouldn’t say BN has bad writing, it’s just a different atmosphere. Like Jared said, it focuses almost exclusively on UCLA, rather than posts that can transcend fan bases. Also, they tend to be quick with the B& hammer when it comes to opposing fans.
It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
