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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Oregon #2 SOS


According to Jerry Palm at www.collegebcs.com, Oregon will end with the second hardest strength of schedule in football this year, according to the formula that the BCS used from 1998-2003, which was 2/3 x (opponents winning %) + 1/3 x (opponents of opponents winning %).  See below for the top 30.


Star-divide

OpponentsOpp-OppAll Known Opps
RankSchoolW-LPctW-LPctBCS SOSRankSOS
1 Mississippi St 78-43 0.6446 681-727 0.4837 0.5910 1 0.5910
2 Oregon 76-52 0.5938 764-736 0.5093 0.5656 2 0.5656
3 Arkansas 70-49 0.5882 713-691 0.5078 0.5614 3 0.5614
4 Alabama 75-54 0.5814 791-729 0.5204 0.5611 4 0.5611
5 Virginia Tech 73-51 0.5887 718-706 0.5042 0.5605 5 0.5605
6 Georgia 68-50 0.5763 716-681 0.5125 0.5550 6 0.5550
7 Florida 73-56 0.5659 805-720 0.5279 0.5532 7 0.5532
8 Florida St 66-47 0.5841 664-709 0.4836 0.5506 8 0.5506
9 Arizona 70-52 0.5738 724-715 0.5031 0.5502 9 0.5502
10 South Carolina 65-49 0.5702 701-698 0.5011 0.5471 10 0.5471
10 Washington 72-56 0.5625 772-723 0.5164 0.5471 10 0.5471
12 Oklahoma 71-52 0.5772 684-729 0.4841 0.5462 12 0.5462
13 Minnesota 65-50 0.5652 666-699 0.4879 0.5394 13 0.5394
14 Miami-Florida 63-51 0.5526 687-667 0.5074 0.5375 14 0.5375
15 Auburn 64-53 0.5470 714-678 0.5129 0.5356 15 0.5356
16 Texas 74-61 0.5481 802-800 0.5006 0.5323 16 0.5323
17 Virginia 64-50 0.5614 644-716 0.4735 0.5321 17 0.5321
18 Iowa 64-50 0.5614 653-727 0.4732 0.5320 18 0.5320
19 LSU 64-58 0.5246 782-674 0.5371 0.5288 19 0.5288
20 Clemson 70-56 0.5556 705-779 0.4751 0.5287 20 0.5287
21 West Virginia 61-51 0.5446 663-678 0.4944 0.5279 21 0.5279
22 Southern California 67-60 0.5276 788-709 0.5264 0.5272 22 0.5272
23 Illinois 64-52 0.5517 647-724 0.4719 0.5251 23 0.5251
24 Syracuse 62-51 0.5487 629-697 0.4744 0.5239 24 0.5239
25 Oklahoma St 64-55 0.5378 705-718 0.4954 0.5237 25 0.5237
26 Oregon St 66-58 0.5323 719-701 0.5063 0.5236 26 0.5236
27 Miami-Ohio 72-53 0.5760 618-862 0.4176 0.5232 27 0.5232
27 Washington St 67-60 0.5276 771-728 0.5143 0.5232 27 0.5232
29 Colorado 67-58 0.5360 729-741 0.4959 0.5226 29 0.5226
30 Baylor 67-58 0.5360 689-725 0.4873 0.5198 30 0.5198

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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What do ya know...

There is no Notre Dame on this list

Our collective lack of productivity has clearly paid off in the grandest of fashion. We are going to Pasadena. Yes, let that sink in. WE ARE GOING TO PASADENA. To be honest, this has not yet hit me-WE ARE GOING TO PASADENA. Wow.

Juju, We applaud your devotion and pure decency throughout the season.

by CaDuck on Dec 6, 2009 10:40 AM PST reply actions  

Or Ohio State…

He can run, he can pass, he is sicker than e-coli. Jeremiah always keeps things rolling.

by MarineCorpsDuck on Dec 6, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions  

But the entire SEC shows up here

The reason I never liked these SOS rankings is that they credited wins over Div IAA teams (or whatever it’s called, I refuse to refer to them as the NCAA wishes them to be referred as) as wins over a top tier Div IA team. Florida gets credit for beating a team on par with Florida State because they beat Charleston Southern. Florida State gets credit for beating a team on par with Oregon State because they beat Jacksonville State. I prefer a SOS schedule model that somehow takes that into account. That’s why I somewhat prefer the merciless SOS rankings that take Div IAA opponents and assign them an 0-11 record by default when compiling rankings.

by niko on Dec 6, 2009 11:23 AM PST reply actions  

Ditto that

I like the idea of only counting losses to lower-division teams.

those who do not remember history should read my blog...

by benzduck on Dec 6, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions  

The one they use for the BCS has us #6.

That’s the red column.. the one that doesn’t take margin of victory into account.

those who do not remember history should read my blog...

by benzduck on Dec 6, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions  

And, reply fail...

those who do not remember history should read my blog...

by benzduck on Dec 6, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually, Jerry's rankings exclude I-AA teams completely

He only counts the I-A teams, which is why Florida’s opponents win calculation has about the same number of games as ours despite Oregon having played one less game.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Dec 6, 2009 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I counted up Florida in particular

And the only way to come up with 56 opponent’s losses is by including Charleston Southern (and excluding everyone’s loss to Florida). I can’t quite figure out the 73 opponent’s wins but it does look like this particular SOS uses IAA teams.

by niko on Dec 6, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Oregon is ranked #5 in the new Sagarin rankings, and has the fourth-toughest schedule in the land. Not too shabby.

(How did we jump Cincy? And how is VT so high? And seriously, a five-loss Arkansas at #15? So many things I don’t quite understand.)

Civil War for the Rose Bowl! We should do this every year!

by ProbablyMonty on Dec 6, 2009 12:14 PM PST reply actions  

VT is high because they played Bama

Basically.

And we jumped Cincy because Oregon State has a tougher SOS.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Dec 6, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions  

VaTech also played Nebraska in OOC.

"...the noise is one aspect, but you can feel the intensity of their crowd." - Pete Carroll on Oregon's Autzen Stadium.

by JConant on Dec 7, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions  

But both we, and Cincy, played OSU. I’m surprised that playing Pitt didn’t give them a bigger bump.

Civil War for the Rose Bowl! We should do this every year!

by ProbablyMonty on Dec 8, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions  

According to something I read the other day, they played Washington State something like 12 times.

"...the noise is one aspect, but you can feel the intensity of their crowd." - Pete Carroll on Oregon's Autzen Stadium.

by JConant on Dec 7, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions  

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