Fact or Fiction: USC will win the Pac-10 Championship in Football in 2009

I think some form of Oregon, Cal and USC will split the title. I’m thinking USC-Oregon, with us holding the tiebreaker of course ;)

And they won’t this year. That being said, they’ll be good again of course…

As good as USC is, and as deep as USC is, this year they are faced with some really tough challenges. Eliminating any one of these 3 things practically guarantees them a PAC-10 title, but this year, with a rookie quarterback running a slightly softer offense, and a rebuilt defense (albeit Mays in UNREAL), I think this is the year USC gets unseated. That being said, if USC wins the PAC-10, they are BCS Championship game bound for sure. 2nd in the PAC-10 leaves them another major bowl:

1) Too many tough road games – USC has to play, within a 5 week span, @ND, @Cal, @UO, and @ASU. Their only reprieve during this 5 weeks is at home against a very good Beaver team, who, while probably losing, just may beat USC up enough to leave them vulnerable for their trip to Oregon, and if for some crazy twist of fate they slip by Oregon, they still have to travel to ASU. This has to be one of the most grueling road schedules in NCAA football, and I don’t think that even the mighty Trojans can survive.

My call is that, in a losing effort, OSU leaves them wounded enough for the Ducks to finish off.

2) Pete Carroll is a first half coach – The ND game from 2005 aside, USC’s goal is always to blow out their opponents in the first half, and take a seat in the 2nd half. You can point to losses to Stanford, Cal, OSU, UO, and Texas during the Pete Carroll era to recognize that in close games, where USC is down or has a marginal lead at the half, that USC is vulnerable, and has a tendancy to let games slip away.

A young or inexperienced QB is generally a 2nd half general, after taking some hits, making adjustments, and changing the game plan in order to stay in/come back/or maintain a lead. With Oregon and Cal’s ability to keep the game close in the first half with very strong ground games, this could be devastating to USC’s gameplan of “win in the first, sit in the second.”

3) Momentum – You can’t discount momentum. Oregon is riding a tidal wave right now after their finish of last season. Losing Johnson and Chang will hurt a little, but the way Oregon’s roster is set up, they are fine. Blount more than proved that he is the man, and Masoli is miles ahead of where he was at a year ago. I believe that Sanchez was much more important than Carroll or any of the Trojans will admit, and that while USC is known for reloading, there is still some hesitancy on the part of their QB situation – especially if Barkley takes over at some point during the season.

Oregon is getting almost the opposite of USC in terms of scheduling. The Ducks get 4 quality games in a row, that if they can win, will only push momentum into their Halloween game. Those 4, followed by 3 relatively easier games against UCLA, UW, and WSU will help make sure the team is fresh, healthy, and ready to play against USC when they come to town.

And as for Cal, they have 3 out of 4 very winnable games before facing USC, which could leave Cal healthier and more prepared than USC.

I believe that if you took out the road trip to OSU, gave USC one more home game against either Cal or Oregon, or had a slightly better starting QB than this would be USC’s year again. But the stars have aligned, and Tim Floyd knows it. Hasta La Vista, oh Mighty Trojans…maybe next year, right?!

I don’t think that is truly correct. Defining close as within 1 score (7 points), here is my counterargument:

Since 2002 (discounting for a moment the Trojans 2005 almost perfect season), USC is 6-6 when they are behind at the half. If you include their 2005 season, then they are 10-7 when behind at the half. In all honesty, that’s not that great. It shows that if USC is behind at the half, they are an average football team. The median points behind for USC is about 5.5. Which means, if you can put up points on USC in the first half, say, 10 or more, a team will more than likely win.

Since 2002, USC (with the exception of the 2005 18 point deficit to ASU) has never come back from a deficit greater than 8 going into the half. – thus the gameplan: blow them out early, or we could lose. Every team who has put up 8 or more points on USC at the half has won, except ASU…EVERY team.

That being said, it doesn’t do any good to tie them. They are 5-0 when tied at the half since 2002.

I never said it’s about playing it safe. It’s about a coaching mentality. Blow up the score, get your 2nd string guys playing time, and win the game. It is BECAUSE of this game plan USC is so deep. While most NCAA teams struggle to get next years starters playing time this year, USC gets both their 1st and 2nd string guys playing time, so when next season comes around, the 2nd string guys aren’t green. You do that by winning games in the first half.

Sure, maybe Carroll is a 2nd half coach as well, but when it comes down to it, having a 50% win percentage when you aren’t winning doesn’t make you coach of the year. Yes, he is a genius, and an amazing coach, but let’s face it, he wants to work in the first, and play in the second.

Since 2002, only about 35% of USC’s games have been within 1 score (7 points) going into the half. Out of approx. 90 games since 2002, USC has only lost TWO (2) games when up at the half (2006 Cal, 2007 Stanford). If you are behind USC at the half, your are going to lose. A big reason for this is because USC generally blows teams out in the first half. They make the differential big enough so that teams have to struggle to get back in the game.

problem is that everyone else has their question marks. Oregon loses two much talent on the lines and Cal has has lost their linebacking corp and don’t have any answers to last year’s inconsistent passing game. I

I ain’t a mudrat fan or got nothin’ agin Subway but if Quiznos stays healthy USC won’t be able to catch him any better this year than last. The weenie covers can’t beat Dux at Autzen. They might well get Best-ed by Cal also. Dux beat Beavers in the Civil War for the conference and national title in the Civil War. Mark it down.

I have to disagree with 100% about USC potentially going 8-4. Pete Carroll is a genius motivator, like JConant said. The only loss that USC has had in the last few years that was in a big game was at Oregon in 2007. Other than that, their losses have come to teams they should have throttled. If that Cal game and Oregon game are as big as they can potentially be (if Oregon and USC are both undefeated, that is going to be a match up of top 5 teams), Pete Carroll is going to have that team firing on all cylinders. You can’t discount experience, but there’s something to be said about a QB who doesn’t throw a single interception all spring long. I would take a new QB at USC over Sean Canfield or Lyle Moevao any day, and both are “experienced.” When at USC, the talent is always going to be tops in the conference, and that is no different at QB. Experience at USC is only the difference between a good quarterback and a great quarterback.

Also, I think that everyone saying that USC might have a down year this year is only serving as motivation for this young Trojan team. The way you beat young players is by telling them how good they are. The best way to get the most out of them is telling them they aren’t good enough. Pete Carroll knows what he is doing. I think the only game that USC loses (potentially) is the Ohio State game.