Morning Quack Fix: Monday pessimism edition
by jtlight on Jun 8, 2009 6:00 AM PDT
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PrintWell, it's Monday, and unfortunately, there's not much good news going around. So, let's get the bad stuff out of the way.
- In recruiting news, Brennan Clay, who had previously stated that "Oregon is kind of my dream school," has committed to Oklahoma. Clay would have been a great player in our offense, but to make matters worse, according to Rob Moseley, Ethan Grant, an early Oregon 2010 commit, has decided to open up his recruitment. Oregon must pick up multiple running backs in 2010, with both Blount and Crenshaw graduating. This news does not help those prospects.
- While not available online at this point, Phil Steele's college football preview is out, and he's breaking from the norm in regards to Oregon. He has Oregon finishing tied for 5th in the Pac-10, tied with Oregon State and Stanford and doesn't have Oregon finishing in his top 40 nationally. He seems to be looking very long and hard at the lack of experience Oregon is returning, with just 9 starters returning overall, and so few offensive line starts coming back. He even went so far as to say last week on an Idaho radio station, that he favors BSU in the opener by 10 points. While most of his concerns are legitimate, my main problem with Steele's prognostication is that he lists Oregon's linebacking units as the 8th best in the Pac-10, which in my mind is absurd.
- Then again, as much as Steele and others want to claim how accurate they are, none come close to perfection. As Doc Saturday and gang pointed out in their Friday roundtable, the surprise teams will come from where you least expect them.
- To temper that pessimism, AJ Jacobson from Duck Sports Authority has a pre-fall camp preview on the O-line. Jacobson doesn't have much new info, but is reassuring that we haven't seen the offensive line yet. We can't really take much from the spring, due to the injury issues. But that also means that we don't know what will happen. Greatwood is stressing hard work and competition, which will be vital, and seems to be fairly confident in the unit. Unfortunately, we'll just have to wait and see.
- In alumni news, Kellen Clemens is holding no ill will to his new competition, Mark Sanchez, and is making him feel at home. Clemens learned a lot from Chad Penenington and is now passing that on.
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Lastly, in their continuing rundown of the top 30 coaches in Pac-10 history, Rich Brooks comes in #25 and Slick Rick comes in #24. While Brooks gets in the list for winning a Pac-10 title at Oregon and setting Oregon on the initial path to success, I think that Neuheisel is vastly overrated. He hasn't shown that he could sustain success at a school, and has yet to show that he can build it. If he is a success at UCLA, then he deserves this type of ranking, but at this point, it's unfounded.
As always, leave your links, comments, and opinions below. GO DUCKS!
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Biggins has some more comments from Clay on his decision to go to OU.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
So dreaming about playing at Oregon means… you aren’t playing at Oregon?
And Ethan Grant opened up his recruiting, FML.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-F-E-L-T-M-E-U-P"
Maybe he meant that playing at Oregon would be like a bad dream for him? Anyway, I heard he said, “Playing at Oklahoma?! I dream about dreaming about playing for Oklahoma!”
This kid will probably change his mind five more times so I wouldn’t be too hurt over it. Strange though.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
- from Quick's Behind the Blazers Locker Room Door, 4/16/09
As far as Grant goes….some new ESPN affiliate Oregon site has some more info on Grant…
So, while Grant is “committed” to Oregon, at this point, that doesn’t mean much. But, I don’t really care, that’s just the way things go in the recruiting game.
At this point, I give Grant about a 50:50 shot at signing an LOI to Oregon. At this point, he likes Oregon but will still be checking out other schools and going to camps. Good luck to him, hope he picks Oregon in the end.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I don't think we're to worry.
I’d still put Grant as a soft commit, but I’m thinking about an 85% chance we sign him, barring some implosion or someone like Florida swooping in and sweeping him off his feet.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Dear Joevan, Develop motor skills. Love, ATQ.
That's the problem with recruiting from the South
These kids get enamored with their first early offer. So Grant says “Oh hell yeah! I know the Ducks!” and “commits”
But then Florida, Florida State, Miami, Georgia and Clemson step in and say, “oh hey, we just opened up a scholarship for a RB (because their first choice committed elsewhere), and we’d like to extend the offer for you” There is so much pressure on kids from the South to stay and play football in the South that you hardly ever see them leave. Hell, when a kid commits to an out-of-state school its a big deal— remember when JaMarcus Russell (from Alabama) committed to LSU? I thought the state of Alabama was going to burn to the ground.
I’m not trying to be negative on Oregon. All I’m saying is getting these kids from the South is a tough business. My guess is Ethan Grant does not end up a Duck, but who knows. LGB left the south. So did Roper.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I think that these whole south/distance generalizations are kinda dumb. Every kid is different. Some want to get to a new area. Hell, Joe McKnight left Louisiana for USC and the entire state was about ready to kill him. I think that just says more about the fans than it does about the players.
You have a built in advantage if you’re going after a kid that cares about being close to home. There are a lot where that isn’t a huge deal. But just cause the kid is from the south, doesn’t mean that recruiting from there is any different from any other far away location.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I agree that each kid is different. But there is a lot of pressure to not only stay in the South, but also in-state. Granted, Joe McKnight left. But for each Joe McKnight, there are 10 other kids that wanted to leave Louisiana but ended up staying at LSU. And you can’t say that recruiting isn’t different in the South than it is in the Pac10. It is a completely different monster. You have people in your ear every single day telling you where to go. And unfortunately, when you live in Florida, most those people will be saying Florida, Florida State or Miami. Not Oregon.
You see kids from the North move states, because it isn’t the same pressure. But Ohio is a great example of what pressure and years of hearing about one (or two) colleges can do to your mindset when you are being recruited. I think Ohio State’s roster is comprised of 95% kids from Ohio. It’s just different in the South. There’s nothing you can do about it.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you’re very mistaken about this in general, but especially about Florida. 2/3 of Florida’s players go out of state for school, while 9/10 of Georgia players go out of state. By comparison, Alabama has 2/3 of their D1 players stay in state, while Louisiana and Mississippi have 50% of their high school D1 players stay in state. All this data was found through http://www.mapgameday.com/recruit.
It is simply incorrect to generalize the south such as you are doing. If a kid wants to leave, they’ll leave. The south is so talent rich (by an insane degree more than any other area), that kids go all over the place. With any player, no matter what location, they have people telling them what to do. You don’t think that the D1 players that go to Oregon schools have people telling them what to do? Does the south have more voices? Probably, but what does that actually mean? I think the data shows that outside of Alabama (which is just a crazy ass place), it doesn’t really mean that much.
Kids will go where they want. Distance in general will play a part for some kids, and it won’t for others.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Jun 8, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for the data finding
But my question is, of these kids going out of state, where exactly are they going? My guess is that they are staying somewhere in the South, or Oklahoma or Texas.
With any player, no matter what location, they have people telling them what to do.
While I agree, again I have to say it just isn’t the same. The kids from the West coast that have people telling them where to go, it’s not nearly the same number nor is it the same degree of pressure. A kid from a town in Alabama is going to have the ENTIRE town telling him “Roll Tide” or “War Eagle” everywhere he goes. At the movie theater, in line at the grocery store, at restaurants, church, wherever. And it’s every high school player, not just the 5 star kids. Every 3 star player as well. I think out here, you only have the kids that are 4 and 5 star players (the “elite” talent) that is getting it in his ear. Otherwise, the players go relatively unnoticed. Down there, if you’re worth your lick at football, everybody knows everything about your life. And they will do everything in their power to make sure you go to their respective school. And when I say anything, I mean anything.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
As I said, Alabama is a very bizarro place, but I think that most places aren’t like that. If a kid grows up in Florida, he’s likely going out of state, most likely to an ACC or SEC school, but that doesn’t have anything to do with town pressure. Distance may be a factor, but town pressure rarely does. Family pressure would play a much bigger role.
And that’s the overall point. You’re saying that all these kids are pressured to go to state schools. Well, that might be true for a small number of kids, but it’s not for most. Why should Ethan Grant care if Clemson (cause you mentioned them above) offers him? Well, maybe he wants to stay closer to home. Maybe his dad liked the school. It really doesn’t matter, as there are many things that pull kids to whatever school, But town pressure will not play into that at all.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I think we’ve hit and stand still. And I agree with a lot of what you have to say. I think in the end I think that the pressure is a lot more than you’re giving credit for. And unless either of us Ethan Grant (I know I’m not, but you could be), then we really can’t say where he’s going.
My original point was that it isn’t good when a kid from the South “reopens” his commitment, because it means that other teams have come in, teams he may not have thought were going to come after him in the first place.
And actually, I remember reading somewhere that Ethan Grant visited Oregon this past basketball season and said a big reason he committed was because the UO students chanted his name at a game and it was “cool hearing his name”. My point being that other schools will go over the top to welcome this kid, and if that is a huge deal then you might have a problem. It was a Rivals article, I’ll try to find it and link it up here.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
My original point was that it isn’t good when a kid from the South "reopens" his commitment, because it means that other teams have come in
It’s never a good thing when any player reopens commitment, no matter where they are from.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Agreed
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
And actually, I remember reading somewhere that Ethan Grant visited Oregon this past basketball season and said a big reason he committed was because the UO students chanted his name at a game and it was "cool hearing his name". My point being that other schools will go over the top to welcome this kid, and if that is a huge deal then you might have a problem. It was a Rivals article, I’ll try to find it and link it up here.
I thought that was Bryce Brown… I could be wrong.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-F-E-L-T-M-E-U-P"
I’m almost positive it was Ethan Grant, because the article was in reference to another kid from Florida who was friends with Grant and was looking at Oregon as well, and this is what he said Grant told him.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Stupid handlers make you fast for guidance, which is not fun or effective.
Still surprised this kid didn’t land with Slick Rick after all of the B.S.
"The brownies,'' Fernandez said after the game. "The brownies are good for me to make three-points.''
- from Quick's Behind the Blazers Locker Room Door, 4/16/09
You see kids from the North move states, because it isn’t the same pressure. But Ohio is a great example of what pressure and years of hearing about one (or two) colleges can do to your mindset when you are being recruited. I think Ohio State’s roster is comprised of 95% kids from Ohio.
While Ohio State gets most of the top talent from Ohio, their roster is full of kids from the South. They’ve recruited Florida and Georgia for years.
I too think you’re completely wrong about this. There is nothing different about southern kids that make them change their minds quicker or more. The only difference is the number of options in the south as the ACC/SEC teams are prominent down there.
The only thing that is making Grant think about another school is the attention he is getting from other schools. And that happens everywhere..not just the south. The rumored player for Grant is Tennessee now, btw.
With a coaching change
Even a relatively minor one, we have to expect some of these things to happen…
Proud member of Duck nation!
Phil Steele has UCLA at #24
with quarterback and runningback issues. Sure, their defense is stacked. I just don’t see how their anemic offense is going to keep them in games.
Part of it, they lost a ton of starts due to injury last year, especially at O-line… He uses that as a large indicator for turnaround, along with turnovers, which I can’t really disagree with, in theory.
But their ceiling is only so high.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I agree 100% with you Bison. I just don’t get where this hype with UCLA is coming from. OLine and QB are very green but VERY unproven. Running back is a huge question mark as well. Their defense will likely be one of the best in the Pac10 again, but then again, their Defensive Coordinator (Dewayne Walker) just left and he was arguably the best coach on the team. I just don’t see them breaking 7 wins this year, if they even get to that many.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Everyone says Phil Steele has the best predictions
But I really don’t see Oregon or Oregon State finishing any worse than 4th this year. There are just too many question marks around the league. Stanford is the team that I think will break out and has a chance to surprise people. I love Jim Harbaugh as a coach and I think Andrew Luck is the real deal. They won 5 games last year with having a mediocre (at best) QB, and now, with returning Gerhart, have a real chance to win 8+ games. Don’t be surprised if that happens.
But UCLA, ASU, UA, and UW are way more hype than anything else. WSU is just plain going to be bad again. I see the final standings shaking out
1. USC (shock!)
2-4 Cal, Oregon and Oregon State toss up. Each has their own question marks, each has their own bright spots. Depending on who shows up to play.
5. Stanford
6. UCLA/ASU
8. UA
9. UW
10. WSU
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you on Stanford. I think that game is a landmine for Oregon on the road. More so than even UCLA. I buy into your list a lot more than I do Steele’s, though I would put UW in the 8 spot just ahead of ASU. I think the Sun Devils might be dreadful this year.
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
ASU is a real toss up for me. While they lost a lot, Dennis Erickson’s 3rd year of coaching is notoriously good at schools places he sticks around that long for. Their biggest question mark is at QB, but they at the very least have a senior there. They got real good talent coming in on defense, and have a solid RB in Ryan Bass. I think UW is going to be atrocious again, aside from Locker, and I don’t think Sark is going to be a good coach at all. His offenses stumbled at USC with all the talent in the world, and Pete Carroll’s asst coaches have a history of not doing too well when given HC positions. I think UW and WSU switch spots where they were last year, with UW going 2-10 (beating Idaho and WSU) and WSU going 0-12.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree as well, though I think that UA will have a chance to be better than ASU, though I’d never bet on Mike Stoops.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I think UA is more talented than Arizona State, but ASU is by far better coached. Arizona just had (in my opinion) one of their best QBs ever, and probably one of their more talented teams, and they could only manage 8 wins. It was the happiest day when Stoops got a contract extension. They will be at best 6 wins this year.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha! Six wins would be perfect for UA. Maybe a crappy bowl, maybe no bowl at all. But just good enough that they blame the season on youth and hang on to that loser Stoops for at least one more year.
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
Exactly. Things are looking up for the rest of the Pac10
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
This bad news forced me to....
watch the Civil War and the Holiday Bowl on TIVO today. I feel much better now.
After Reading..
the rivals discussion board, there was supposedly a credible source close to grant talking on the board about how grant is still committed to Oregon. Supposedly he’s not happy about being underrated and wants to prove to the Floridas and Alabamas that he has what it takes to be the top running back.
But as the “credible source” pointed out, Grant still has the O on the back of his car. Thats always positive.
interesting
ooooh, “credible source.” Sources and Rumors comment war Round 2?? I love sticking it to the SEC big boys. Lets just hope he doesn’t stick it to them so hard they want him and get him. Somebody mail that guys some more bumper stickers.
Sleeping under an avalanche with Cartman, wake me Sept 3.
I hope you're right, even in spite of your usage of the term "credible source."
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Dear Joevan, Develop motor skills. Love, ATQ.
The best way to prove the Floridas and Alabamas wrong
Is to commit to Georgia or Auburn! STAY OUT OF THE PAC-10!
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Jun 8, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Its tough to know if its credible
when he’s posting on a recruiting discussion board, but he’s said some stuff that makes me believe he’s close to Grant.
While this may be right…..
nothing in recruiting is rock solid until signing day. If other schools are wooing a 16-18 year old kid, you never know how things will turn out.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Always look on the bright side of life...
who’s excited for NCAA Track Championships this weekend? Let’s get that Triple Crown!
It's spelled "T-A-K-I-M-O-T-S-C-H-M-O-E."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
Who I met, by the way. Nice fellow.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Dear Joevan, Develop motor skills. Love, ATQ.
This reminds me of when a buddy yelled the name “Zola Budd!” real loud while Mary Decker was running past our baseball practice at the South field (would’ve been spring of 1985). Snapped her head around about 90 degrees with a serious scowl. If looks could kill…
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
Still, I see Mary Decker (Slaney) around Eugene all the time, and she always seems to have a scowl. Deep scars I guess.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Dear Joevan, Develop motor skills. Love, ATQ.
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