Previewing the season: Boise State
by jtlight on Jul 21, 2009 10:56 AM PDT
in Oregon Ducks Football
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PrintWe are inching closer to the football season, with a mere 44 days until kickoff on the blue turf. Over the next month, we'll take a look at Oregon's opponent, get to know the other teams players, and look at some of the early matchups. During these previews, I'll be using a lot of statistics, including some advanced metrics such as 'S&P+.' For a full run down of all of these statistics and their meanings, read this primer by Rock M Nation's Bill Connelly. All statistics are courtesy of Bill Connelly and cfbstats.com.
Today's we'll take a gander at the Boise St. Broncos.
Boise State's Passing Offense:
If you've spent even two seconds over at OBNUG, or were around for last year's bet, you know the player that makes Bronco fans swoon: Kellen Moore. The now redshirt sophomore had a superb freshman campaign, posting a 157.44 QB rating, a 69.4% completion percentage, and a 2.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He ranked 11th nationally in rating, 9th nationally in yards per completion, and 4th nationally in completion percentage. Needless to say, he was a beast. He came into one of the most hostile environments in college football in his first road start, and torched a supposedly great (though Walter Thurmond-less) secondary.
However, as good as Moore was on game by game basis, he was even better on a play by play basis.
The two best ways to measure this performance are with success rate (SR) and points per play (PPP). Success rate is a great measure of consistency while points per play measure explosiveness. And Moore and BSU were excellent in both. In close game situations (defined approximately as a 3 possession game during the first half and 2 possession during the second), Boise State was ranked 3rd in the country in SR+, while ranking 9th in PPP+. The plus is rather important as that denotes that the statistics have been normalized for strength of schedule, which is very important for a non-BCS team like Boise State.
No matter how you cut it, Kellen Moore is a very good QB, and if he can cut his interceptions a bit, he will be one of the best QBs in the nation in the pocket.
No doubt Kellen Moore was aided last year by two experienced WR's in Jeremy Childs and Vinny Perretta, and both must be replaced. The main returning WR is Austin Pettis (49 receptions last season), who will likely be able to fill Childs' consistency , while Titus Young or Tyler Shoemaker will look to replace Perretta's explosiveness. Also returning will be starting TE Kyle Efaw, who was pressed into service last year due to injuries, and caught 17 balls on the season.
Overall, I expect the Boise State passing game to produce at the same rate it did last year. They have a few question marks on the line, including left tackle, and their receiving corp is largely untested, but with Moore at the helm, don't expect a drop-off. At the same time, there is little reason to think that the unit as a whole will improve in any significant way from last year performance, as in my mind, it was quite close to it's performance ceiling last year.
Boise State's Rushing Offense:
Going into last season, you would not have expected the Boise State passing game to carry the load, but that is what it was forced to do. The Boise State rushing attack was a surprising disappointment. Ian Johnson failed to hit the 1000 yard mark, after achieving that in 2 straight seasons, while his backup Jeremy Avery saw his numbers dip as well. From 2007 to 2008, looking at a combination of success rate and PPP (S&P+), Boise State fell from 33rd nationally to 60th nationally. On top of this, their success rate in close games in 2008 came in at a pathetic 90th nationally.
And honestly, I don't see much reason why this will improve. Boise State is returning 3 starting offensive linemen and 2 solid backs, though all are undersized. None of the starters on the line look to top 290 (though all by center Thomas Byrd are 6-4 or taller). That means it should be an athletic group, matched with undersized but athletic running backs. I'm sure the Boise State coaching staff will make adjustments to give their backs a chance to succeed, and they could have a real home run capability, but I don't see their consistency improving. And against good teams, this will be a huge problem. If Boise State jumps to a lead against Oregon, I they will struggle to run the clock out, just as they did last season.
Boise State Passing Defense:
The BSU passing defense will likely be the strength of the team. Returning potential All-American DB Kyle Wilson, DB Brandyn Thompson , and safeties Jeron Johnson and George Iloka, there are no question marks. This secondary posted the 15th ranked S&P+ passing defense in the nation. They were solid across the board, not withstanding a 4th quarter collapse against Oregon, where they apparently forgot how to keep their receivers in front of them.
I expect similar result from the unit this year. However, I supposed as an Oregon fan, I'm jaded against secondaries. On top of this, I feel that offenses hold the advantages in college football today, and if you give a competent QB time, he will be able to throw against the defense. There are few secondaries that can truly shut down a team. Boise States secondary is very good, but it not an elite shut down secondary.
Boise State Rushing Defense:
If there is a weakness on Boise State, it looks to be the front 7. With just 2 returning starters, there are question marks abounding. The D-line will be anchored by returning starer Ryan Winterswyk and the highly touted Byron Hout, who is the second highest rated player on BSU after Kellen Moore. The other returning starter is middle linebacker Derrell Acrey. While all other players have game experience, they are largely untested.
What is also interesting, is that though Boise State was a top 10 rushing defense last year, they were ranked 46th in the nation in defensive Line Yards, which attempts to measure how much of a rushing gain can be attributed to the line play. So while Boise State did a great job stopping gains, almost all of those allowed gains can be attributed to the defensive line play. With two new defensive tackles, it is likely that this weakness will continue. And with the large loss of experience in the linebacking corp, there is no guarantee that unit will make the plays it did last year.
Special Teams:
P/K Kyle Brotzman will be returning, and Boise State will be solid as always on special teams. Kyle Wilson is a very dangerous return man, and BSU will have the ability to make big plays in this area at any time. Watch out.
Conclusion:
Boise State is a very good football team, that is incredibly well coached. They could take a step back on defense this year due to rushing defense, which is not a good sign considering they gave up 275 yards rushing to TCU in their bowl game. If they can't get a consistent running game, it could be very difficult for them to close out good teams. But you can't count them out, especially with Kellen Moore throwing the ball.
Coming soon: Looking at the matchups and predictions.
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Very good work...
I really appreciated your analysis because I’ve been following Obnug and no one is talking about the front seven. They are salivating at the mouth about their defensive line because of Winn, the cat’s meow at DT because the middle part of the Pac-10 offered him, and Atkinson is garning a lot of hype for being their defensive scout player of the year; he is 6’1 320 DT pounds and ran the ball in high school albeit Canada. Seriously, there may be 2-3 upperclassmen in this front seven’s two deep and a lot of it got spot duty in the WAC. This front seven is largely untested. Mike Williams is gone, one of their better DE in a long time, and two very productive linebackers. Their rush defense was not spectacular against teams that ran the ball well.
Moore is the key to this whole game. We hold their passing game to under 250 yards and this won’t be a contest because I don’t see them rushing for more than 100 unless they spring one long one, as you intimated. They aren’t going to have the bevy of wide receivers with 3-4 most productive gone but they have some decent talent returning. In any case, it should be a good one.
if only we ran the ball well
They did a decent job of stopping Harper and the running game last year. But really, the running game became a whole new beast when Masoli really got the hang of the offense. If we pick up remotely close to where we left off there could be a lot of yards for anyone running the rock.
Sleeping under an avalanche with Cartman, wake me Sept 3.
Don’t you think that we can also expect a couple of very creative trick plays? We can’t get burned by more than one of those. They could potentially change the outcome of a close game.
Yes we will
I’m really not worried about trick plays. I’m more worried about them executing their normal plays, which they did plenty well last year.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
And turning the ball over
I think our offense will be fine but if we start throwing it away, watch out.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
agree with jtlight
And if they do get a trick play to work Chip could go into “anything you can do, I can do better mode.” We have seen a few world class trick plays over his time here and I’m sure he has a few ready and waiting.
Sleeping under an avalanche with Cartman, wake me Sept 3.
Do they have anyone with the speed to stay with Holland?
They don’t need anyone with that kind of speed….one cheap shot and he’s out of the game! Masoli too. It’s worth an ejection or two for them!
I won’t be surprised if they play dirty again.
After the game at Autzen last year, I gave them the benefit of the doubt and told myself that the cheap shots were just a result of being pumped up for a big game. But then I watched a couple of their games on ESPN and they were doing the same thing with late hits and helmet-to-helmet hits. They quite simply are a dirty team.
They got called out a number of times on TheWizOfOdds. Their fanbase cried outrage. Then again, they seem to rival SEC fans for being unable to have perspective on their own team.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Really?
There is a huge difference between playing hard and playing “dirty” – The hit on Masoli by Powers wasn’t dirty at all, it was a bang bang play that if watched real speed honestly does not look exceptionally late (his helmet hits Masolis chest by the way, NOT his helmet) but seeing as it was “late” he was flagged accordingly.
Now the Jeron Johnson hit is another story, he was technically playing the ball but his hit was more stupid than with the intention to hurt someone, hence his ejection – however if you follow the Broncos at all that is just how Johnson plays, with a chip on his shoulder and with reckless abandon, and quite honestly if he played on any other team I would most likely despise him. But you can’t say you wouldn’t want somebody like that on your team, and to take those 2 plays and generalize that BSU is a “dirty team” is a little overreaching, in my opinion
Being late is not just the issue...
Powers lead with his head and intentionally hit Masoli. See the link and pause it at the .52 mark. Powers’ head is below his shoulders and connects with Masoli’s facemask and he hits his head on the turf after Powers hits him. Powers took three steps toward Masoli AFTER he threw the ball. Three steps would be a bit late to make contact.
May we hand you your taints on a silver platter...
After further review...
See the .51 second mark. You’ll see the ball is clearly out of Masoli’s hand and Powers is a good couple of yards away.
May we hand you your taints on a silver platter...
Saying that the hit on Masoli “does not look exceptionally late” is clearly a case of you watching through your blue and orange glasses. Powers takes at least three steps towards Masoli after he throws the ball and then leads with his helmet. That’s a late, dirty hit. And I watched several other BSU games last year and he was flagged several other times on late hits and/or helmet to helmet hits. It wasn’t a one time thing.
(his helmet hits Masolis chest by the way, NOT his helmet)
You mean, just like that bullet hit JFK in the foot?
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Good luck in the WNBA, Kamyron!
Clever
You’re right though the hit is dependant on the eye of the beholder, you’re speaking as if I said the hit should not have been flagged, it did get flagged and honestly I wasn’t all too upset about it getting flagged, when you play at the speed and with that intensity on every down things like that are going to happen (and don’t kid yourself, every big hitting defensive back NFL included puts his head and shoulders down to lay out opponents) but to generalize off that one play and say Powers is dirty and in-turn the Broncos are dirty is a generalization I don’t think is fair to make
Bronco Fan Here
Great post I enjoy reading Addicted to Quack…keep up the good work. I have to disagree with one comment though. Not ALL BSU fans are completely without reason. Fact of the matter is most people I know are scared as hell about Oregon coming in here with the fire and emotion that is oh so important in college football. You’re right about the lack of a running game and that has been a staple for BSU in the past. Kellen Moore is good but he can’t win every game especially when you need to hold the ball to close out a tight game. Also I agree with the front 7 and allowing a LOT of rushing yards. Teams seemed to run all day on us. I know our D is a “bend but don’t break” philosophy but they will get tired way too fast and worn down in the trenches if this continues. All in all good job and throw me some comments/questions if you want a friendly objectionable debate. From Boise, Idaho – take care guys.
by Snipes25 on Jul 24, 2009 8:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
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