The incomparable 2009 SBN Pac-10 Football Preview
by jtlight on Aug 19, 2009 1:15 PM PDT
in Football
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With college football fast approaching, the SBNation Pac-10 bloggers put together their collective heads and previewed the upcoming conference season. Included in the preview is a prediction of the Pac-10 finish, a look at the Pac-10 Heisman candidates, and an in-depth look at each team. The full preview is available at CougCenter.
After the jump are our thoughts on the Ducks, who were predicted to finish 3rd in the conference.
Overview: Oregon is beginning a new era this season, but it really doesn’t seem like much has changed. New coach Chip Kelly will continue his offensive explosion that has averaged 475 ypg and 40ppg over the past 2 years. Duck fans expect great things, as Oregon is loaded with talent at the skill positions, and the inexperienced offensive line will be coached by the top offensive line coach in the country, Steve Greatwood.
On the other side of the ball, the Ducks will rely on speed. Oregon has an experienced and talented group of linebackers, and the team is led in the secondary by All Pac-10 CB Walter Thurmond and hard hitting safety TJ Ward (Google "TJ Ward hits Zac Robinson;" you’ll be glad you did). Though Oregon’s defense has been a weak line in the past, it has the talent to improve from last season, when the Ducks’ D spent more time on the field than any team in the nation.
Key to Success: The passing defense. Oregon fans are always up in arms about the secondary, which they constantly feel is underachieving. Last year, the unit was supposed to be the best in the nation, but then gave up a combined 829 yards to BSU and USC.
This year, the unit must improve, which will be a very difficult task as Oregon lost two starters in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. The secondary is talented with a finally fully healthy Thurmond, who should be one of the top cornerbacks in the nation. But Oregon will need young players to step up at the opposite corner position, as well as at rover.
Potential Achilles Heel: Any follower of the Pac-10 knows that injuries have spelled disaster for the Ducks time and again in recent years, most notably when Dennis Dixon’s knee gave out on a terrible night in Tucson. This season is no exception, with only one experienced QB on the roster. QB Jeremiah Masoli is backed up by Nate Costa and Darron Thomas but Costa has injured his ACL three times and Thomas is an inconsistent true sophomore.
Health will also be vital at receiver and on the offensive line. The WR position has seen multiple injuries through the first week of fall camp, and the offensive line is still healing from spring ball. As the offensive line returns only 20 total starts, health will be vital in ensuring this unit can come together and help Oregon compete with the upper echelon of the Pac-10.
Best Case Scenario: Go undefeated and win the bowl game against anyone not named Florida. All the games on Oregon’s schedule are definitely winnable. Oregon has the talent to realistically stick with almost any team in the country, and has a very favorable schedule.
Worst Case Scenario: Oregon’s offensive line never comes together and neither does their defensive line or secondary. This means that Oregon can’t beat either USC or Cal at home, and drops a few games to teams like Arizona, UCLA, and Stanford. Oregon goes 6-7 after losing in Chip Kelly’s bowl debut.
Likely Scenario: Oregon goes 9-3, losing to USC, splitting Cal and BSU, and dropping another along the way. Oregon has a lot of talent, yet a lot of inexperience in a few key positions, which could mean inconsistency. But Oregon wins its bowl game, setting the stage for a big 2010.
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Oregon's Tertiary...?
I’m expecting a great squad in the defensive backfield. T.J. the “Violent Collida” Ward and Willie G can get it done.
Oh, and with Walter Thurmond III and Talmadge Jackson III holding it down, maybe we should rename Oregon’s Secondary the Tertiary?
by muchas g on Aug 19, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Key to Success - pass defense (the defensive line's responsibility)
A look at last year’s numbers does indicate that Oregon’s pass defense gave up a lot of yards. I do however believe the reason for this under performance was not due to the talent in the secondary so much as the ability of the front four to rush the quarterback and the linebacker corps giving pass coverage support. How many times did Oregon get burned by the play action, giving the quarterback a few seconds in the pocket to pick apart the coverage? BSU, Arizona, and USC killed Oregon on play action passes last year.
With Aliotti’s philosophy of prioritizing the defense to stop the run first, second, and third, I think the key is getting those front four to get after the quarterback on pass plays and the linebacker corps effectively dropping back a bit more and playing with discipline against the play action. Even talented secondaries can’t expect to lock down receivers for more than a few seconds.
by VegasNed on Aug 19, 2009 7:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree and Disagree
A look at last year’s numbers does indicate that Oregon’s pass defense gave up a lot of yards. I do however believe the reason for this under performance…
Couple of things to take into account
1. Number of yards given up isn’t a good indicator of performance by a defense. Oregon’s offense was last in time of possession last year which resulted in the defense being on the field more than any other defense in the Pac-10. If an opposing offense is going to have more time, they will get more yards.
2. Oregon’s defense only gave up 4.9 yards per play last year as a unit. That was 4th in the Pac-10 behind USC, Cal, and Arizona State
…was not due to the talent in the secondary so much as the ability of the front four to rush the quarterback and the linebacker corps giving pass coverage support.
Agree and disagree. Oregon was 2nd in the league in sacks and had the top 2 sackmasters in the Pac-10 in Will Tukuafu and Nick Reed. Getting pressure on the QB wasn’t an issue. You are right in saying that the linebackers pass coverage was not great, especially before the USC game.
How many times did Oregon get burned by the play action, giving the quarterback a few seconds in the pocket to pick apart the coverage? BSU, Arizona, and USC killed Oregon on play action passes last year.
There has been some great analysis here on the site about how the defensive schemes were implemented pre-USC and post-USC. You are right. We got killed in play action with BSU. USC beat us in all facets of the game, not just play action. If you look at the Arizona game, we were doing great until the second half when our offense went three and out a few times and the Wildcats chewed up all the clock, keeping our defense on the field. They also had a pretty good tight end catching balls all over the field. Here’s the link to the game recap. Check out the 3rd quarter specifically for Time of Possession.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=283202483&period=0
Depending on what scheme is being implemented, we should see better linebacking play this year, especially with the tightend coverages.
--Dominic, Addicted to Quack
Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die." - J. Brady McCullough, The Michigan Daily.
by dvieira on Aug 19, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Observations
Thanks for the in-depth and comprehensive feedback Dominic. Stats aside, my observation from the one game I did attend sober last year (the USC game) I noticed that our linebackers seem to play much closer to the line of scrimmage than most other teams. Again, this is probably something that Aliotti pushes to make sure we can generate pressure at the line of scrimmage at the cost of leaving the pass defense somewhat vulnerable to the mid-level passes (7-10 yrd routes in the middle of the field) as our linebackers scramble to get back into proper pass coverage position.
Is this something other fans noticed last year throughout the season watching games? Maybe my observations were skewed by that one game I attended. Perhaps I needed a few extra drinks for this game.
I guess the point is that for me, I’ll be focusing on the defensive line when I watch games to see if they can disrupt some plays without aggressively bringing the LBs up to the line of scrimmage. I’ll also be watching the recruiting this year and pray that we can get some 4 stars DTs into the program.
.
by VegasNed on Aug 20, 2009 6:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I would caution against using the USC game as a good example of the defense. After that game, the defensive schemes were changed greatly. I believe that early in the season, too much faith was put in the secondary, and that led to a lot of our problems.
I did an in-depth analysis of the USC game, which can be found here. In this game, we put the passing defense into the hands of the secondary. They failed. That was changed after the USC game, which I think helped a lot, but had it’s own disadvantages. However, that opened up the mid-level game even more, in order to stop giving up the big plays.
For this season, I really think from the early part of last season, our linebackers have grown a lot. I really think the unit will be top notch, and allow the secondary to focus on the other teams receivers.
Also, thanks for posting Ned. Always great to have another analytical voice.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Aug 20, 2009 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coach Bellotti
I feel very insecure about our kicking teams, but I also trust Coach Kelly to have
it all covered by game day.
I love and admire Coach Bellotti and all he has done for our Duck program.
However: he failed at marriage 101…irregardless of what his wife did…
Is their engagement just for show or are they really going to re-marry.
One thing about an ‘engagement’…it takes somebody out of the dating
pool.
Coach B. hasn’t seemed very happy or smiley lately. He is highly competitve
by his own admission and always wants to win. Could this be the
problem in the absence of a re-marriage? Is he still hung up on his
young girlfriend?
Hope he can work it out for his sake and for the benefit of the rest of
his fans……
by Dazy Duckie on Aug 23, 2009 8:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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