Predicting The Season - Utah Utes
by JConant on Aug 4, 2009 11:29 AM PDT
in Oregon Ducks Football
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PrintUtah Utes at Oregon Ducks
Sat., Sept. 19
Eugene, Ore. - Autzen Stadium
12:30 PM Pacific
TV: ESPN
It may be the biggest game we aren’t talking about this summer.
When we last saw the Utah Utes they were dismantling an Alabama team that was in a national title hunt right up to the SEC Championship game. Utah in 2008 was undefeated, with quality wins over Michigan, Oregon State, TCU, BYU and the aforementioned Crimson Tide. They finished the season ranked #2, and with a sizable chip on their shoulder over not getting an opportunity to prove themselves BCS Championship worthy.
That is what they were. Let’s look at what they are now.
Utah comes into 2009 filling a lot of holes. Gone are 11 starters, including seven players who earned All-Mountain West Conference honors following Utah’s 13-0 run (five were first-teamers). The departed included MWC offensive POY in QB Brian Johnson, special teams POY in PK/P Louie Sakoda and stand-out pass rusher Paul Kruger who left after his R-sophomore year and became a second round pick of the Baltimore Ravens. While there seems to be some consensus that Utah is mostly reloading with talent, MWC writers picked the Utes to finish third in their conference, behind TCU and BYU.
The cupboards are hardly bare in Salt Lake City, though we might not learn a lot about Utah from their first two games. The Utes open the season hosting typically soft Utah State, then go on the road at equally soft San Jose State. The bottom line: on the road at Oregon, in the Autzen Stadium environment is where Utah’s newest starters will be getting their first real taste of nationally ranked opposition.
Oregon’s offense vs. Utah’s Defense
This could be a colossal match-up. The strength of Utah’s defense is the play of the linebackers. Stevenson Sylvester (#10, 6-2, 230-lb., Sr.) is a first-team pre-season MWC selection, and he might be the best linebacker in the conference. He’ll team up with senior Mike Wright (#20, 6-2, 235-lb.) to form a formidable run-stopping duo. Oregon gets few breaks along Utah’s front line either. Yes, the Ducks caught a break with Kruger’s bolt to the NFL, but defensive ends Koa Misi (#41, 6-3, 263-lb., Sr.) and Derrick Shelby (#90, 6-3, 250-lb., So.) are expected to excel at their positions. Safeties Joe Dale (#12, 5-100, 200-lb., Sr.) and Robert Johnson (#17, 6-2, 200-lb., Sr.) are considered by some to be the best duo in the MWC.
Utah took apart Alabama last season with a disruptive scheme along the defensive front seven. It was an impressive barrage of stunts and blitzes that resulted in eight sacks. Utah clearly looked to take advantage of a Crimson Tide line that became a liability when missing all-world tackle Andre Smith due to suspension. With Oregon’s young O-line being the Duck's biggest question mark, it shouldn’t surprise us to see Utah trying to penetrate along the line and blitzing often. That may be effective, or disastrous. Chip Kelly will be prepared for Utah’s defensive pressure. Any gambles taken by Utah’s defenders will be countered with misdirection, and big plays could result. This is a game where Jeremiah Masoli’s versatility as a dangerous runner and passer should make the difference. If the Utes can manage to slow down LeGarrette Blount (that's a 6-2, 240-lb. IF), look for tight end Ed Dickson and receiver Jeff Maehl - two veterans who play big in big games - to make critical plays off Oregon's short to medium passing game.
Oregon’s defense versus Utah’s Offense
We’ll say it repeatedly this year. Inexperienced QBs don’t usually fare well at Autzen. Boise State’s Kellen Moore passed the test last season. Many before him have not. Oregon could face a duo of quarterbacks against Utah. The likely starter is junior Corbin Louks (#19, 6-0, 200-lb.). Louks played in nine games last season and finished third on the team with 223 rushing yards. The challenge for Louks is he has only attempted 15 passes in two seasons at Utah. Yes, he can run. It’s less certain that he can pass his way to a win. It’s a sure bet that Nick Allioti’s defense will look to make him do just that.
If Louks can’t get the job done, we may see Terrance Cain (#7, 5-11, 185-lb., Jr.). Cain is a highly regarded JC transfer who led, or came close to leading, most significant NJCAA passing categories in 2008. So one runs, the other throws, and from some Utah spring game notes, we learn that neither appeared to outshine the other.
Matt Asiata (#4, 5-11, 230-lb., Sr.) leads the Utes’ rushing attack. He had 146 carries for 707 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2008. He’s not Jahvid Best scary, but he’s a first-team All-MWC selection. Asiata is a load to bring down and can slug out some tough yards. Utah’s receiving corp took a big hit, losing the top three targets from 2008. David Reed (#16, 6-0, 190-lb., Sr.) may be looking for his time to shine. Senior Aiona Key (#9, 6-4, 195-lb., Sr.) will share receiving duties with Reed, though he caught just a single pass for 19 yards last year. Forget about weaknesses along the Utes offensive line. They return two all-MWC starters. Guards Caleb Schlauderaff (#72, 6-4, 300-lb., Jr.) and Zane Taylor (#77, 6-2, 300-lb., Jr.), and tackle Zane Beadles (#68, 6-4, 305-lb., Sr.) will be a huge test for Oregon’s relatively green defensive line.
Utah’s O-line versus Oregon’s front seven should be an all-out war. The Ducks may lack star-power along the D-line (at least after Will Tukuafu), but they have considerable depth. That could be a key against Utah’s quality offensive line in a game that might be in doubt well into the fourth quarter. Oregon will need to prepare for both a running and a passing QB, and be ready to adjust to different personnel on the fly. Utah seems to be caught lacking experience at the QB position, and with Oregon’s defense seemingly improving, it should be advantage Ducks in this match-up.
Odds and Ends
It’s hard to pin down many intangible advantages either way. Both teams will be breaking in new kickers and punters. Both have big-play athletes on special teams. Both teams are breaking in some new coaches on both sides of the ball…at the coordinator level in both cases for Utah. Field position and special teams execution will be critical. Neither team can afford to be missing 35-yard field goals.
Bottom Line
I think it is to Oregon’s benefit that they’re facing this Utah team 1) at home, and 2) early in the season. The tipping point, I think, comes down to continuity and leadership. Oregon has it, Utah might not only a couple games into the 2009 season. Jeremiah Masoli returns as Oregon’s clear leader. He’s the heart and soul of the Oregon team. He makes great things happen. That player last season for Utah was QB Brian Johnson. Now Johnson’s leadership has to be replaced, something that rarely happens overnight. For all the talent lost in 2009, Utah may miss Johnson’s leadership and play making more. Utah's defense will hold Oregon under their scoring average, but the Ducks will find ways to get the one-on-one match-ups, in space, that make Chip Kelly's spread click. Oregon's defense should continue their coming out party against a Utah offense which is inexperienced at quarterback and receiver.
Prediction
Oregon 31, Utah 20
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I think Utah will for the most part miss Johnson the most.
He was extremely impressive.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
Sounds about right.
I’m expecting a tight game, but Oregon should win.
Utah’s defense will keep them in the game and their ability to win will pretty much rest on whether or not Louks takes to the starting role quickly. If he doesn’t, then they won’t. If he’s decent enough, they could pull out the upset.
I like our chances if Utah tries to mix in a lot of blitzes… I like them a lot. Taking snaps out of the shotgun puts Masoli in immediate passing position, and he has a very quick release. And they probably won’t be able to blitz JUST one side, because that leaves the other side open. Big day through the air that way, and a couple HUGE runs – but overall rushing yards would be lower than against a conservative defense.
If Utah plays aggressive defense, I predict 56-28. If they play conservatively and try to contain the plays; keeping things in front of them, I predict 38-24 with 250+ total rushing yards.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-F-E-L-T-M-E-U-P"
It’s entirely possible Utah’s braintrust realizes the risk of gambling against Masoli. The interview with Cal’s defensive coordinator Bob Gregory about defending the spread had one simple theme…“it’s assignment football.” Assignments can still be maintained while applying pressure, but the risk is great given Masoli’s proven decision making at the point of attack.
I would thoroughly enjoy either of your outcomes.
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
Yes
Masoli and Blount are too good to contain all game. Against ‘Bama, we played a static QB with only one decent WR to find and a back that needed bighles to make it happen. Oregon’s fluid and changing schemes will be Utah’s downfall here, in my opinion. "Bama was predictable, Oregon is not.
We have excellent defensive coaches, very fine, but if they stop Oregon?
I’d fall over dead, I just do not think it possible to contain them enough. I feel our only chance is if our offense has come together enough to eat the game up and stay close.
OT: Holiday Bowl replay on ESPNU tonight
6:30 pst.
Its hard to get fired up for this game right now when you have Boise State on the horizon
But Kyle Wittingham has built himself a solid program over in SLC and the Utes are no one hit wonder. He has recruited well, and kept a lot of Utah guys in-state, which Utah has, surprisingly, quite a wealth of football talent.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
Here's to you knocking off Boise State.
I think it benefits Utah twofold.
1st) You’ll automatically be ranked higher for that game and if the Utes somehow pull out a victory, it would catapult them into the top-ten.
2nd) If the Utes do lose and run the table the rest of the way, since the Broncos would have 1-loss and the Utes would have to beat BYU & TCU, the Utes most likely receive a BCS berth.
I don’t think either are realistic (Utah beating Oregon, Utah finishing 11-1), but I can dream.
Good Eval Ducks!
I have to say, I wish this game was not in Autzen. Oregon is one of teh national powers in my book, they reload more than rebuild.
We’ll show up, but I think the previous two games are more important for both teams: Did their new O lines cohere and pick up the schemes (ours is revamped as well)? Did new defensive personnel come into their own? Will coaching changes both teams had affect them at game time? Did Utah replace their senior WR leadership? Did Oregon overcome Boise State and leave with confidence? Confident Oregon teams are dangerous, ask the Beavers.
People talk about Brian, and he was a fine leader, but he had senior wideouts that made him look even better. Watch that ‘Bama game, they fought for it. The wideoutslast yearmade so many insane plays. We have, this year, likely as much, or more, talent at wideout, but are they as smart as last year’s guys?
Most importantly, in 2008 Utah had insane team unity and dedication. That’s a thing that is in flux for a team year by year. I’d say when you look at the adversity Oregon faced, Oregon had good team mentality as well, especially by year’s end. Does Oregon’s momentum from last year’s roll trump Utah’s new found confidence? I believe that could play as big a factor as any line issue.
Here’s hoping there are no injuries so both squads are at their peak and a fine game is turned in by them.
Best of luck to you Oregon, look forward to this game with what I believe is one of the ten finest programs the last several years.
Now, game relevant news:
Utes Lost James Aiono, Powerful defensive end, to academic woes. He was considered a sure fire starter and looked to replace Kruger. The news from the Tribune:
A look at the defensive line, without Aiono
Even with the news that James Aiono won’t be available for the 2009 football season, coach Kyle Whittingham seemed excited about his defensive linemen when I spoke to him today. His response to Aiono not being here until January due to academic reasons?
“That is why you over sign,” he said. “Often times you have to adjust and make changes. We still feel very deep there, he would have added to it, but we do have a lot of depth.”
Aiono was slated to be Lei Talamaivao’s backup at tackle. Talamaivao, remember, broke his leg two games into the 2008 season but he is fully recovered according to Whittingham.
Derrick Shelby and Nai Fotu are expected to battle for the starting spot at left end. Shelby is moving back to his natural spot after playing at tackle last year while Fotu is moving from linebacker.
“His best attribute is rushing the passer so at defensive end he can do that full time rather than part time as a linebacker,” Whittingham said of the move. “It’s the best position for his strengths.”
Sophomore Sealver Siliga, who had a strong spring and reportedly a good summer in the strength and conditioning sessions, is slotted at nose tackle ahead of Kenape Eliapo, who missed seven games in 2008 with a broken foot.
The right end is anchored by senior Koa Misi, with Junior Tui’one as his backup. Tui’one played in four games last year.
“It would certainly have been nice to have (Aiono) in camp and we hope to get him in January, but we’ve got a lot of depth,” Whittingham said.
Whittingham said the status of linebacker Mo Neal, who is allowed to practice with the team but not play in games after participating in a bar fight in June, is unchanged until his case is resolved.
Thanks for coming on over again, MeanBob
Always a welcome visitor. How do you feel about your situation in filling Brian’s shoes? Who is going to be your starter? Is it Louks?
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
Yes
Johnson was soooooo competitive, such a good leader, he made everyone around him better. But in terms of raw talent? Johnson had an average arm and was mostly forbidden from running due to his fragility. Louks is more talented, can he get his head on and keep it on is the question.
Louks will start, and he has all the positives to mature into a good QB but if this season does not go right, and he gets benched, I think it might finish him mentally—no one has shown the mental toughness BJ had. Louks is known as a “running QB only” because that’s all they let him do. When he came into college he was more of a passer, Johnson indicated Louks was better than he was at throwing. The team has kind of messed him up, IMO, because they did not put him in more during garbage time and let him run it full throttle with an open spread and some deeper balls. The offense last year did not feature a great deal of it’s versatility because we would not allow Johnson to be hit. Consequently, this year is such a wild card I suspect that makes most prognosticators say “well, Utah third in the MWC and if we’re wrong, who cares.” Much of our offensive woes and hurrahs were, rightly I reckon, blamed on our Offensive Coordinator, Ludwig who is gone. Schramm has indicated we will open it up much more. I believe though that coach Whittingham, while nodding to a more open offense, likes a grind them up defensive game and power running to eat time up.
So, we have a new QB, a new scheme, and new wideouts. We should mangle Utah State, but that’s not a fair indication of how we will do all year.
What will be missing initially is offensive unit cohesion, not talent, and much of that came from the relationship between Johnson and three talented senior wideouts. I suspect that will take a year to rebuild and the team will fret away opportunities and lose games as a result of it. If they gel early? We’ll be good.
I think our O-line will be fine, terribly concerned about our cornerbacks in terms of their heads. They have talent, but last years’ are both on NFL rosters so . . . . you know, replace that overnight. We will especially lose physical play at the corner. Not good.
Good stuff.
Thank you for the d-line updates MeanBobMean. Sounds like the Utes are swimming in bad-ass Samoan run stoppers up the middle.
You mentioned “insane team unity and dedication.” That is exactly what I believe we’ll see from Oregon in 2009, even more so than 2008. Despite key personnel losses, I think dedication and unity are a couple major reasons why this season’s Ducks will be a better team. The evidence is the leadership and performance we saw from Jeremiah Masoli working with a patchwork o-line in the spring game. His demeanor this summer. The fact that for the first time ever, Oregon’s linemen are participating in summer conditioning drills. The fact that every player who was in town showed up for conditioning for the few days when our heat wave topped 104. Masoli says he’s already watching tape of Utah. The veterans are saying the new guys are talented and working their butts off. The new guys are saying they like the team chemistry and that the veterans are helping them get up to speed quickly.
These guys believe. And that, combined with Oregon’s talent, is reason for serious optimism.
Opening at Boise State – given all the circumstances – is huge motivation for Oregon’s players, no question. But the benefits of this team’s hard work this spring and summer should carry the Ducks all season. I’m not saying they’ll win every game, but I expect them to roll into conference play with a 3-0 non-conference record, two of those wins over outstanding programs in BSU and Utah.
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
Yep
I fully expect last year’s aberrant, injury-induced woes to be gone and Oregon to be an extremely fine team.
Last year we lost many D-linemen to injuries and we held our own on defense. I expect they will be fine there, it is CBs I worry about.
For our game with you guys, I am betting on what you said: That Oregon comes in mentally tougher.
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