Fair Weather Jeremiah: A Look at How Weather Affects Masoli
No one's doubting Jeremiah Masoli now. Unless they're reading the weather report.
After three poor passing performances in a row to start off the 2009 season, Oregon's junior quarterback shut his doubters up on Saturday, finishing a marksman-esque 21-of-25 for 253 yards, 3 TDs, no interceptions and a career-high 148.4 passer rating in the Ducks' 42-3 drubbing of Cal.
It was arguably Masoli's best passing performance of his 16-game Oregon career. It was also arguably the nicest game-day weather the signal caller has seen in one and a half seasons with the Ducks.
But not every performance has been this sunny. In fact, a few were downright dreary.
Last year, the Ducks visited Berkeley amid one of the heaviest downpours in recent memory. At halftime, it seemed like Memorial Stadium was at risk of sliding into the bay. Masoli managed just 44 yards and 2 interceptions on 7-of-21 passing, as well as an abysmal 2.8 passer rating, the worst of his career. By comparison, Cal quarterbacks Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley combined for 216 yards on 20-of-39 passing with 2 touchdowns and an interception, as the Bears sunk the Ducks, 26-16.
But one game doesn't mark a trend. If only it were one game.
Masoli has played in wet conditions only two other times in his career: Games against Stanford last season and Utah last weekend. Most Oregon fans remember the Stanford game either as the turning point in his young career or as the game he was heavily booed for a poor second-half performance. Actually, his performance wasn't half bad, at least statistically. He finished 11-of-21 for 144 yards and a touchdown. He also led the Ducks on their final drive, capping off a come-from-behind win over the Cardinal on LeGarrette Blount's late TD run, 35-28. But it certainly wasn't his best performance through the air.
The Utah game, amid heavy mist, didn't have as many bright spots. Although the Ducks managed to squeeze out a win, no doubt partially fueled by Masoli's legs (he rushed for 47 yards and 2 TDs), his passing statline was far from Heisman-worthy. Masoli finished 4-of-16 for 95 yards and an interception with a 25.8 passer rating. Apparently when it rains it pours, even when it isn't raining.
But the trend becomes clearer over the course of his entire Oregon career. When the temperature's been moderate (between 60-80 degrees) with clear skies, Masoli is 95-of-148 (64.2%) with 1,313 yards (8.87 yards/attempt), 12 TDs, 2 INTs and a 113.9 passer rating. He's also 7-1 in those games, including last year's Boise State game, which he only played a quarter of before being knocked out after a late hit.
When the weather outside's been frightful (either hot and humid or wet), however, Masoli is seemingly a different quarterback. In the seven games with less than perfect weather, he's 70-of-154 (45.5%) with 4.97 yards per attempt, 2 TDs, 5 INTs and a 51.5 passer rating. He's 4-3 in those games.
The only outlier was Masoli's outstanding performance at Arizona last year. However, it was merely a dry, cool 52 degrees, hardly considered poor weather for a team's passing game.
And it hasn't just been about his passer rating, but more prominently his accuracy. Four of his five lowest completion percentages came amid poor weather: Utah (misty; 25%) this season, and UCLA (the coldest game; 26.3%), Cal (heavy rain; 33.3%) and Stanford (rain; 52.9%) last season. The fifth lowest was the Boise State debacle just three weeks ago (51.9%).
Is all of this cause for concern as winter nears? Possibly. The Ducks have four more games at home: USC in late October, Arizona State in mid-November, and the Civil War in early December. But there's also Oregon's visit to dreary Seattle on Oct. 24. A much-improved Washington team could benefit greatly from rainy weather.
And then there's this weekend's game against Washington State. After a dominant performance against Cal last weekend, Masoli and the Ducks will try to avoid a letdown against freshman quarterback Jeff Tuil and a potentially revitalized Wazzu team.
And the weather report looks grim: High of 61 degrees with showers.
Fortunately, it never rains on Autzen Stadium.
| HOT | |||||||||||||||
| Date | Time | Temp | Weather | Wind | Result | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | TD | INT | SACK | LNG | RAT |
| 8/30/08 | 7:11 PM | 67 | Mostly Sunny | 13 MPH | W 44-10 | 9 | 17 | 126 | 52.9 | 7.41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 116.3 |
| 9/6/08 | 12:37 PM | 71 | Sunny | 10 MPH | W 66-24 | 7 | 11 | 67 | 63.6 | 6.09 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 80.5 |
| 9/20/08 | 12:30 PM | 60 | Mostly Sunny | 5 MPH | L 37-32 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 75 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 92.7 |
| 9/27/08 | 3:15 PM | 77 | Clear | 5 MPH | W 63-14 | 9 | 16 | 161 | 56.3 | 10.06 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 130.5 |
| 10/25/08 | 7:05 PM | 79 | Clear | 4 MPH | W 54-20 | 17 | 26 | 147 | 65.4 | 5.65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 76.9 |
| 11/29/08 | 4:07 PM | 62 | Sunny | 0 MPH | W 65-38 | 11 | 17 | 274 | 64.7 | 16.12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 76 | 147.7 |
| 12/30/08 | 5:00 PM | 60 | Clear | 8 MPH | W 42-31 | 18 | 32 | 258 | 56.3 | 8.06 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50 | 80 |
| 9/26/09 | 12:30 PM | 71 | Sunny | 8 MPH | W 42-3 | 21 | 25 | 253 | 84 | 10.12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 148.4 |
| 8-1 | 95 | 148 | 1313 | 64.2% | 8.87 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 76 | 113.9 | |||||
| COLD | |||||||||||||||
| Date | Time | Temp | Weather | Wind | Result | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | TD | INT | SACK | LNG | RAT |
| 10/4/08 | 5:00 PM | 66 | Cloudy | 3 MPH | L 44-10 | 18 | 29 | 156 | 62.1 | 5.38 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 61.9 |
| 10/11/08 | 7:15 PM | 52 | Partly Cloudy | 6 MPH | W 31-24 | 5 | 19 | 42 | 26.3 | 2.21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 57.1 |
| 11/1/08 | 12:30 PM | 61 | Heavy rain | Swirling | L 26-16 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 33.3 | 2.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2.8 |
| 11/8/08 | 12:30 PM | 56 | Rain | 10 MPH | W 35-28 | 11 | 21 | 144 | 52.4 | 6.86 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 90.2 |
| 9/3/09 | 7:15 PM | 88 | Partly Cloudy | 10 MPH | L 19-8 | 14 | 27 | 121 | 51.9 | 4.48 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 48.5 |
| 9/12/09 | 7:15 PM | 83 | Partly Cloudy | 6 MPH | W 38-36 | 11 | 21 | 163 | 52.4 | 7.76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 78.1 |
| 9/19/09 | 12:30 PM | 62 | Misty | 3 MPH | W 31-24 | 4 | 16 | 95 | 25 | 5.94 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 25.8 |
| 4-3 | 70 | 154 | 765 | 45.5% | 4.97 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 51.5 | |||||
Writer's note: All data was compiled manually using game notes at GoDucks.com. Please note any errors in the comments.
3 recs |
64 comments
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Comments
Where is the Arizona game 11/15/2008?
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by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 8:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't include it.
It didn’t really fall into either category.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 8:58 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
This is interesting, but I imagine this would hold true for pretty much ALL QBs. I don’t know if you have the resources to find this, but it would be helpful to compare these numbers to some other college QBs to see if Masoli is affected more or less by the weather than the average college QB.
If true, then we could draw conclusions as to why. Does Masoli have smaller hands that hurt his grip? Does the spread offense with its quick screen passes cause more problems because he doesn’t have time to get a better grip on the ball? Etc.
Anyway, thanks for the info.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
by Gorbachav5 on Sep 30, 2009 9:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You make a good point. The labor was pretty intensive to begin with, but I did look at how the opposing quarterbacks compared in the same games, and it was markedly better statistically, at least in wet weather (as indicated by Longshore/Riley in last year’s Cal game). My argument, by the way, isn’t necessarily saying Masoli is BAD in less moderate weather. It’s mostly saying that for whatever reason, he’s really GOOD when it’s sunny and cool.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From an unscientific eyeball view – what I’ve seen at the games or watching the games on TV – I’ve always felt that JM is impacted significantly by a wet ball. But Gorby has a good point: that could very well be a universal problem. He’s correct in pointing out that to draw a conclusion here would require a baseline of performance data for a large sample D-1 QBs under similar conditions.
How about the receivers? Are they more prone to drops when it’s wet/cold? Seems plausible, and that also would impact Jeremiah’s stats.
Whatever the case, it’s an interesting notion to dig into, Paul. I’m guessing most of us have pondered this topic, and now you’ve revealed the real numbers and trends regarding Masoli’s performance. Good stuff.
Last time I checked, there is no "Hall of Average." - Oregon Football Coach Chip Kelly
by JConant on Sep 30, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with both of you.
There’s a lot more needed to draw any conclusions. Luckily, it’s all about sensationalism for me. I’m obviously trying to get a job with ESPN here.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
If you were trying to get a job with ESPN, you would do best to ignore the Ducks and focus your efforts on one of those East Coast schools that “matter.”
Anyway, I glossed over your point about the Cal game the first time around, which is my bad. But yeah, Masoli seems to like the sunshine (although that doesn’t seem to be consistent with his upbringing – isn’t he from cold, wet, balmy San Francisco?).
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
by Gorbachav5 on Sep 30, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's from Daly City...
Just south of where I live. It’s pretty foggy there, but it’s really nice in the fall. They call it an Indian Summer. Not sure why they gotta make it about race.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you
i’ve been saying this ever since the beginning of this season when he had issues vs utah and purdue, and he made my point by whooping ass vs cal. i just think it requires dunking a ball in water and making throw after throw both outside and in the mo center. looking at the forecast for this week, rain is likely so it will be a good measuring point against an inferior defense (he threw for 331 yards in my ncaa 10 simulation last night.)
Q: How many OSU freshmen does it take to change a light bulb?
A: None, it's a sophomore course.
by axemen23 on Sep 30, 2009 10:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
they make kickers practice with wet balls
why not the Masoli. I was thinking this while reading the post. Lets take it a step further. We should instal a sprinkler system in the Mo center. We could even pay Pac Man to man the system, I make it rain I make it rain.
Best game in Autzen??
by trumpetduck on Sep 30, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinda need to see the results from his days in SF as well.
by grimc on Sep 30, 2009 10:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a real job, you know. ;-)
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Rec’d!
It's spelled "S-H-U-X-U-A-L H-A-R-A-S-S-M-E-N-T"
by JShufelt on Sep 30, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flagged
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Sep 30, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know, but your fake job has a lot more entertainment value for me.
by grimc on Sep 30, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Excuses, excuses…
It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Sep 30, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How dare you.
I feel the need, the need...for speed!
by Gorbachav5 on Sep 30, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah he's not like Dixon
Who didn’t care too much about the weather. I’ll never forget going to his first start at home against Cal in what can only be described as the worst gameday weather I’ve ever experienced (driving rain during the entire game, although strangely I didn’t feel cold until after we won the game).
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
by skywaker9 on Sep 30, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that weather was crazy
That was the only game I wore every single piece of band gear I owned (A LOT). So wet, so so wet
Best game in Autzen??
by trumpetduck on Sep 30, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But so awesome
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
by skywaker9 on Sep 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
TD, right before the Utah game, a trumpeter par excellence, in the standing room area behind Section 19 (proximo)
played the most moving rendition of the Oregon fight song I have ever heard (complete with triplets toward the end.) Was that YOU? I had never heard that done before and I was moved to the core of my being. I was hoping that such beauty would become a regular phenomenon, especially because we won the game. I wanted to go and say ‘Thank You’ but my physical limitations, the crowd, and the kick-off, and the disappearance of the musician prevented my doing so. If it WAS you, Thank You from my weary old heart and I hope that you’ll do it again and again from that same spot. If it was someone else, may your musical fraternity pass on the gratitude, and request, of an ancient Duck.
by DONALDUCK on Sep 30, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn. Sorry I missed that.
Our tailgate locale along the millrace affords us a visit from a group of band members before each game, rain or shine. They always do a couple tunes and finish strong with the fight song. Needless to say, the hat that gets passed around gets filled with green in support of the Ducks band.
Our band is good.
Last time I checked, there is no "Hall of Average." - Oregon Football Coach Chip Kelly
by JConant on Sep 30, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was not me
The trumpet has been retired since the last basketball game of 2009. But I’m sure everyone will be pumped to know it will be coming back out for homecoming. Maybe I need to change my name eh.
Best game in Autzen??
by trumpetduck on Sep 30, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a thought
How big are Masoli’s hands? Gotta think big hands allow for better grip during wet conditions. Dixon had big (and magic) hands.
It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Sep 30, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They really don't look that big...BTW
did anyone see Masoli make a “duck” gang sign after he scored a touchdown to the camera (I think it was against Utah). I haven’t been able to find it on the web anywhere.
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt,
I saw that, my brother paused it when we made it, it looked kindof like a Duck, but he thought it was some kindof gang symbol.
42-3, 65-38...So many scores to choose from!
by Dixonforlife07 on Sep 30, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was it the Utah game?
If so, i need to get a Torrent or something for game so i can get a screenshot of that…IT WAS FREAKING AWSOME…it looked just like a duck.
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTE, it definitely was a duck...don't think it was a true "gang" sign
he even made the head move back and forth like a duck quacking
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is awesome!
I did not catch that, but I hope a picture can be uploaded
Formerly, thats a no-go.
I apologize for my ignorant and blatant lack of refinement in terms of my cursage. I did not know much of this Tuel feller so I accidentally used another innocent mans picture. Believe me, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!
by CaDuck on Sep 30, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to see that.
I just watched his two rushing TDs from the Utah game and he didn’t make any sort of gesture to the camera after either.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
by qrsouther on Sep 30, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I know it wasn't BSU...and I am pretty sure it wasn't
Cal…so it must have been Purdue.
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Billy Packer, is that you?
That dude always goes on and on about other dudes hands, almost creepy.
by Bill Musgrave on Sep 30, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The question here is...
How big are YOUR hands?
Formerly, thats a no-go.
I apologize for my ignorant and blatant lack of refinement in terms of my cursage. I did not know much of this Tuel feller so I accidentally used another innocent mans picture. Believe me, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!
by CaDuck on Sep 30, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This question feels awkward, and has embarassed me.
Now if you are talking about t-me, and not me, then yes, I have big hands and the shoulders to carry a team on my back.
T-me
by Bill Musgrave on Oct 1, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
didn't Dixon have really big hands?
or am i dreaming that i read that once?
Under winter skies
We stand glorious
And with Oden on our side
We are victorious
by WhiteRabbit on Sep 30, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way man. I shook his hand. That guy has ginormous hands.
It's spelled "S-H-U-T-S-I-D-E-T-H-E-B-O-X"
by JShufelt on Sep 30, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And then he went
“You remembered the beer right?”
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
by qrsouther on Oct 1, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did have beer that day. It was Stella and Guinness.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-T-H-E-N-E-E-D-T-O-H-U-R-T-M-E"
by JShufelt on Oct 1, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a factor to consider is also the strength of the defense he was playing against
Here are the numbers from 2008 in the games he threw well:
Date/Team/Total D Rank/Pass D Rank
8/30/2008/Wash/ 83/ 41
9/6/2008/ Utah St/ 117/ 114
9/20/2008/ BSU/ 22/ 24
9/27/2008/ WSU/ 120/ 120
10/25/2008/ ASU/ 3/ 8
11/29/2008/ OSU/ 72/ 110
12/30/2008/ Ok St/ 61/ 85
Couple of observations:
I through out the Cal game from this year, because the stats on D aren’t known yet
Those are NCAA rankings on total D and pass D statistics
The only “semi” decent pass defenses he played against were Washington (but they are Washington and did go 0-12), Boise State (but he only threw 4 passes and was out after the first quarter), and ASU (which I had no idea their D was that good last year). So he realy only had one “good” game in “good” weather against a “good” pass defense.
The other defrenses that he had good passing games against were 114, 120, 110, and 85 in ranking. Not “stellar” by any stretch of the imagination.
By contrast the games last year he had “poor” passing performance were against pass defenses ranked 29 (USC), 37 (UCLA), 82 (Cal, but that was in a downpour), and 61 (Stanford).
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"Defrense!"
Funny typo… I think that’s what they play in the Keg Stand Intramural League.
Last time I checked, there is no "Hall of Average." - Oregon Football Coach Chip Kelly
by JConant on Sep 30, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting...
There are definitely all kinds of factors to consider. Day vs. Night. Hot vs. Cold. Windy vs. Still. Opponent’s defensive strength. Injuries to the O line, RBs and WRs.
What I concluded here, or at least what I’m saying is interesting, is that there is definitely a correlation, at least on its face, between sunny weather and Masoli’s passing game. Aside from the Boise St game he was knocked out of, he was 7-0 in moderate, sunny weather. You can’t tell me that every single one of those games was against a shitty defense, can you? As you showed above, you can’t. I’ll also point out that his best game, Cal this year, has to be included, as that defense will most DEFINITELY end up in the top 50 barring unforeseen injuries.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No I agree...and I should have started by saying I truly like your analysis...
I never thought to consider weather as a factor in his passing ability. As a matter of fact the passer rating you pointed out is the most surprising statistic to me by far. Considering we do play in Oregon…and some of Masoli’s biggest games this year will come in the NW, I think this needs to be something that the coaching staff has a keen eye on.
I guess most people look at the usual stats (home vs away, good vs bad defenses). I guess I was just trying to add another coorelating factor.
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I would include the Az game in the Hot area (or are you taking it out, because he played well in not perfect weather?)
Weather: 52 degrees, Overcast
Masoli Stats
21-26 passing; 298 yards; 2 TDs; 1 Sack
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I left it out.
Because the weather was listed as “light overcast and 52 degrees,” it didn’t really fit into either category. It was, however, in Tucson, where 52 degrees is very dry and comfortable. I ran the numbers before the article, and if you include that game, his passer rating goes up to 119. But, I just didn’t feel like it was consistent to include it in either group.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t the Arizona game at Autzen last year?
It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Sep 30, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes it was
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy sh*t!
How did I overlook that? I’m losing my mind. Staring at too much data.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just ran an independent means t-test in excel, and the odds that this data is due to chance is less than .1%. Kinda cool for the low sample size.
by bradLL99 on Sep 30, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Correlation does not equal causation
the Boise State game was 88 degrees and partly cloudy, while the Purdue game was 83 degrees and partly cloudy, not bad for The Pacific Northwest in september, I think the correlation could also be drawn form an early season vs. late season comparison as well. Look at Takimoto’s stats in the fan post for ccsf, then last year’s and this year, the pattern that I see is he consistently gets better as the season goes on. But just because two variables seem to corespond with each other doesn’t necessarily make it so.
by QuackinAK on Sep 30, 2009 2:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what exactly are you caliming to be the factor here?
Sun vs. clouds?, that seems to be the only consistent weather related phenomemah form the above (and from my view cherry picked) data. What criteria were you using for “hot vs. cold” which I assume refers to Masoli’s performance and not the temperature at game time. Sorry I’m just not seeing how this is a conclusion that can clearly show weather being a bigger factor than time (each of 3 seasons he has had to work with a new set of guys), it just seems like an oversimplification and kind of a reach for me, but let’s keep collecting the data, and see if it pans out, bt I really think you do need to clearly define what constitutes “bad” vs. “fair” weather, as well as “hot” vs. “cold” play.
by QuackinAK on Sep 30, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I took statistics in college. I read Moneyball. I know there’s no causation based on this evidence. In fact, it’s hardly evidence at all, but merely conjecture with assumption. I’m not drawing any conclusions. I’m merely pointing out there may be a correlation.
But, after pouring over the data, I will admit I found it interesting. What I found initially is that Masoli is terrible in the rain. The difference is really mind-blowing. He’s a COMPLETELY different quarterback in the rain. But, so are a lot of quarterbacks.
But as I continued to look, it became clear that Masoli passing game is VERY effective when it’s 60-80 degrees and clear. That’s flatout true thus-far. It doesn’t mean anything other than that. But, that statement is true based on 16 games.
On the other hand, early in the season vs. late in the season is not clear. There are a few outliers. There are also a few outliers from some of the other factors you mentioned. I’m sure, at the end of the day, there are a lot of factors to consider to draw any conclusions. But I’m not drawing any. I’m merely pointing out there’s enough evidence worth looking at. At least for fun. As I said in a previous comment, I’m sensationalizing conclusion.
Addicted To Quack. If you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
by PaulSF on Sep 30, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
From my calculations
There is actually a fairly high correlation coefficient between weather and play. An r value of -.672 (with highest and lowest qb rating thown out) surpasses the critical “r” value of 13 data points needed to be considered potentially useful…But there are obviously other much more important factors that are surely attributed to these ratings. My calculations are almost surely inaccurate, I have not done this stuff in a while.
Formerly, thats a no-go.
I apologize for my ignorant and blatant lack of refinement in terms of my cursage. I did not know much of this Tuel feller so I accidentally used another innocent mans picture. Believe me, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!
by CaDuck on Sep 30, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
After crunching numbers all day today, here are my findings:




It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Sep 30, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Pac Man chart is too advanced for me...I Just Don't See It!
Formerly, thats a no-go.
I apologize for my ignorant and blatant lack of refinement in terms of my cursage. I did not know much of this Tuel feller so I accidentally used another innocent mans picture. Believe me, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!
by CaDuck on Sep 30, 2009 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite chart
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick!
Everybody going to Autzen, buy space heaters and warm the place up!
But seriously, there is a correlation that is somewhat frightening
Formerly, thats a no-go.
I apologize for my ignorant and blatant lack of refinement in terms of my cursage. I did not know much of this Tuel feller so I accidentally used another innocent mans picture. Believe me, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!
by CaDuck on Sep 30, 2009 4:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Whatever equipment is necessary,
this sounds like a job for Uncle Phil
by Bill Musgrave on Sep 30, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we build a roof over Autzen by Halloween?
It's spelled "T-A-K-O-T-U-E-S-D-A-Y-S-!-!-!."
I support inroywetrust in his support of The VD Special in his support of me supporting Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by Takimoto on Sep 30, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And get a craft big enough to block out the rain at visiting stadiums, with lights below.
A quick call to the Prawns from District 9 might lead to the equipment we need.
Phil can pull this shit off. Best part is, when we have a QB or running game that actually prefers the rain, we park the craft and let nature due its worst. Flexibility, it’s only sensible.
by Bill Musgrave on Sep 30, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Screw Hallooween...Phil get it done by Saturday
need time for the rest of the team to adapt before Halloween, Masoli is all really care about right now
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
by Matt Daddy on Sep 30, 2009 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're only 10 days away from a bye week. And then, the Fuskies!
But wait, I’m getting ahead of myself……
by DONALDUCK on Sep 30, 2009 8:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
latest wx. forecast is 40%….CHANCE…..of showers. Big deal. What, we have concerns
now,at home,against WSU?
by ochocokid on Sep 30, 2009 9:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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