FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 4

I'm a nerd. So, I got that out of the way.

But I've been working on a spreadsheet that is essentially a resume based computer poll. Getting into the formula is somewhat confusing, but it makes sense to me. I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good.

 

I wanted to have a system that was more objective than a human poll, but still based on a resume. I probably won't make a Fanshot every week, but I will follow up the AtQ BlogPoll ballot with a comment on it - unless the masses demand a Fanshot.

Here are things about the poll:

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  
      • That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it.
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • T+O Avg (Team Average plus Opponent Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is T+O Game, which is the "points" allotted for their win, using a very similar formula as T+O Avg (T+O Avg is an average against all opponents; T+O Game is against that week's opponent). I know, it’s confusing. But it’s a computer poll, it’s suppose to be. And this isn’t used for the BCS. 
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception, but the half life of that value is weekly. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score, but only half as much as it will influence New Mexico's score.
  • You now already know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

So, without further ado; here is the SHUFELT Computer Top 25; all scores are based on games played through 

Week 4. The numbers are the team's T+O Avg

  1. Oregon (5.929)
  2. Ohio State (4.576)
  3. Alabama (4.210)
  4. Stanford (3.911)
  5. Florida (3.864)
  6. Oklahoma State (3.667)
  7. Utah (2.991)
  8. Miami (FL) (2.848)
  9. Arizona (2.795)
  10. Iowa (2.781)
  11. TCU (2.667)
  12. Missouri (2.649)
  13. Boise State (2.649)
  14. San Diego State (2.545)
  15. LSU (2.332)
  16. Nebraska (2.327)
  17. USC (2.271)
  18. Nevada (2.205)
  19. California (2.170)
  20. Auburn (2.070)
  21. Wisconsin (1.964)
  22. NC State (1.719)
  23. Arkansas (1.570)
  24. Florida State (1.576)
  25. South Carolina (1.570)

Now on to the extra curricular awards:

Flavor of the Week

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

  1. Iowa over Ball State; 6.893
  2. Florida over Kentucky; 6.464
  3. Florida State over Wake Forest; 5.393
  4. Michigan over Bowling Green; 4.714
  5. Missouri over Miami (OH); 4.286

Here’s the down side of this system. It’s very resume. It’s SO resume that a win over Ball State in week 4 is impressive. Ball State isn’t exactly an impressive team (T+O Avg -1.536), but a shutout is impressive, and so is piling on 45 points to someone that isn’t an FCS team. Now, as the season goes on, we can look back, and I would assume UCLA’s win over Texas will be the top result for week 4.

Face Palm Award
This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team

  1. New Mexico; -6.286
  2. Bowling Green; -3.679
  3. New Mexico State; -3.321
  4. Idaho; -3.321
  5. Texas; -3.286

New Mexico is bad. They are actually rated the worst team in this poll. UNLV is also pretty bad. To lose 35 points to UNLV is definitely a face palm score. Now, you might be wondering how Michigan gets a mention on the previous award, while Bowling Green gets mention for a Face Palm. You may also be wondering why I'm wearing this over sized hat. Keep your wonders to yourself! The real reason why, is because Bowling Green got throttled in the end. Losing by 44 just sucks, and Bowling Green isn't a New Mexico level of a bad of a team. But the difference between New Mexico bad and Bowling Green bad is pretty significant - nearly twice.

No Shame in Losing Award
This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

  1. Arizona State; 6.107
  2. Arkansas; 3.678
  3. California; 3.178
  4. Notre Dame; 2.607
  5. BYU; 1.750

What’s funny in the No Shame in Losing Award, their resume actually improves for that week despite losing, granted, not as much as if they would have WON, but if they play against good competition, a loss is expected. Keep it close, and the computer applauds them. Arizona played Oregon closer than what many people expected. Considering how awful Arizona State’s schedule has been (Two FCS teams), this isn’t too shocking. Arkansas makes an appearance with a good showing against Alabama. They weren’t far off from pulling off a major upset.

Bitter Sweet Award
This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team. Teams will find themselves here if they fail to win very convincingly against an FCS team.

  1. University Louisiana-Monroe; -9.857
  2. Nebraska; -8
  3. Tulsa; -6.143
  4. Michigan State; -4.471
  5. Virginia; -4.143

ULM, I know you’re in the Sun Belt, but pulling off a 1 point win against Southeastern Louisiana? Ugh.
Nebraska is up on here because they failed to shut out, and score high. Tulsa gets a nod because they allowed two TDs verses University of Central Arkansas.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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