FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 6

Here are things about the poll:

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • NEW! There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now already know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.
    Here is the current standings of the Top 25.

Top 25

 

Rank Team (W-L) VoW Avg Diff
1 Boise State (5-0) 3.165 0.000
2 LSU (6-0) 2.641 0.524
3 Ohio State (6-0) 2.580 0.586
4 TCU (6-0) 2.420 0.745
5 Alabama (5-1) 2.388 0.777
6 Oklahoma (5-0) 2.198 0.967
7 Auburn (6-0) 2.125 1.040
8 Oklahoma State (5-0) 2.088 1.077
9 Oregon (6-0) 1.998 1.167
10 Stanford (5-1) 1.888 1.278
11 Utah (5-0) 1.816 1.349
12 Florida (4-2) 1.813 1.352
13 Oregon State (3-2) 1.805 1.360
14 Missouri (5-0) 1.634 1.531
15 Arizona (4-1) 1.561 1.604
16 Nebraska (5-0) 1.536 1.629
17 Florida State (5-1) 1.418 1.747
18 South Carolina (4-1) 1.204 1.961
19 Michigan State (6-0) 1.179 1.986
20 USC (4-2) 0.988 2.177
21 California (3-2) 0.970 2.195
22 Iowa (4-1) 0.932 2.233
23 Nevada (6-0) 0.921 2.244
24 North Carolina (3-2) 0.866 2.299
25 NC State (5-1) 0.832 2.334

 Boise State gets their convincing win against mid-level team, Toledo. However, their schedule is going to start hurting them starting this upcoming week. San Jose State and Louisiana Tech are both bad teams, with bad schedules. They'll start to slide as their strong schedule starts to get leveled out while other teams start improving their weak schedules.

LSU's win over Florida puts them at No. 2 for this week. I would expect LSU to drop to high teens after this week, when their resume gets smacked down by an FCS opponent. Don't like it? Don't schedule it.

Oregon takes a hit due to putting a "meh" performance against WSU (VoW of 0.8079).

Florida jumps down a bit in the polls because they confirmed what everyone really thought - they aren't THAT good. They are still getting a great bump from their pretty tough schedule to date.

 

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

 

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
Florida State (2.805) @ Miami (FL) (1.014) W 45-17 4.983
South Carolina (1.743) vs. Alabama (2.643) W 35-21 4.769
Nebraska (3.749) @ Kansas State (0.618) W 48-13 4.709
Utah (3.859) @ Iowa State (-0.286) W 68-27 4.533
Michigan State (2.584) @ Michigan (1.549) W 34-17 4.290

 That was a pretty significant win. Even though the ACC and the Big East aren't great conferences, these are two decent teams, and Florida State showed great dominance over their competition. Not far behind that is South Carolina's huge win over Alabama. They looked to really control the game, and Garcia looked pretty good (For a change)- except for that whole - "Bad snap! Oh crap, I'm going to get sacked, let me throw it between the uprights for a safety!". My mind still boggles over that. I wasn't too impressed with Saben in this game. Ingram had only 11 carries for 41 yards. While South Carolina looked prepared for most things thrown at them.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team. Teams will find themselves here if they fail to win very convincingly against an FCS team.

 

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
New Mexico State (-3.098) vs. New Mexico (-3.838) W 16-14 -2.253
Kent State (-0.210) vs. Akron (-3.132) W 28-17 -1.459
Florida International (-1.537) vs. Western Kentucky (-2.979) W 28-21 -0.911
ULM (-1.818) vs. Florida Atlantic (-1.560) W 20-17 -0.561
Nevada (3.339) vs. San Jose State (-2.420) W 35-13 0.001

 It was like the Clash of the Titans, and by Titans I meant puppies. And not the cute kind, but the ragged and matted kind of puppy. The one that everyone goes "Aww, you poor thing", but never actually gets purchased, because people are afraid it might carry some sort of plague.  NMS pulls of a breath taking 2 point win over New Mexico. So far, there are only 8 teams worse than New Mexico State, and New Mexico is one of them

 

No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

 

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
USC (1.504) @ Stanford (2.646) L 35-37 1.428
Kentucky (0.516) vs. Auburn (2.346) L 34-37 0.604
Florida (1.309) vs. LSU (2.151) L 29-33 0.450
Washington State (-2.771) vs. Oregon (4.324) L 23-43 -0.063
Indiana (1.504) @ Ohio State (3.486) L 10-38 -0.252

 After being the recipient of the award last week, they get to give it to USC personally. USC hasn't looked like USC of the '00s, but they still field a team of talented players, and they fought hard. Andrew Luck was able to boost his Heisman hopes with 20/24, 285 yards, 3 TDs and adding another 40 yards rushing. Barkley showed he can still match his Freshman hype by going 28/45, 390 yards, 3 TDs and his own 33 yards rushing. That bodes well for USC, as they showed they'll have to rely on their passing game by only going Taylor going only 33 yards on 13 attempts.

 

Face Palm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

 

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
Ball State (-1.172) vs. Western Michigan (-0.304) L 16-45 -5.092
Memphis (-2.763) @ Louisville (1.288) L 0-56 -4.299
Eastern Michigan (-3.411) @ Vanderbilt (-0.167) L 6-52 -4.158
Miami (OH) (-0.932) @ Cincinnati (0.436) L 3-45 -4.157
Utah State (-1.015) @ Louisiana Tech (-1.053) L 6-24 -3.961

 29 point loss at home will always sting. Ball State was probably looking to be excited after their "big" win over a poor CMU team. Whoops. The Cardinals run away with the Face Palm Award.

While Louisville isn't a terrible team, getting blown out and shut out by them is embarrassing. Oregon State fans probably had a smirk on their face after seeing this score. 

 

Conference Rankings



Rank Conference Win Loss Teams VoW Avg
1 SEC 45 23 12 0.782
2 Pac-10 34 22 10 0.597
3 Big 12 45 17 12 0.440
4 Big Ten 44 18 11 -0.061
5 Independent 10 7 3 -0.222
6 MWC 25 27 9 -0.425
7 ACC 37 28 12 -0.513
8 Big East 24 17 8 -0.782
9 WAC 27 23 9 -0.884
10 C-USA 31 35 12 -1.181
11 Sun Belt 14 33 9 -1.891
12 MAC 28 47 13 -1.923

 

The only loss in the SEC West was Alabama, and only three SEC teams have losing records. Meanwhile, the Pac 10 beats itself up a little bit. We are still left with 3 good conferences, 1 mediocre conference, a few decent independent teams, and then a bunch of bad conferences and two AWFUL conferences.

 

Pac 10 Rankings

 

Rank Team Wins Loss VoW Avg
1 Oregon 6 0 1.998
2 Stanford 5 1 1.888
3 Oregon State 3 2 1.805
4 Arizona 4 1 1.561
5 USC 4 2 0.988
6 California 3 2 0.970
7 UCLA 3 3 0.196
8 Washington 2 3 -0.198
9 Arizona State 3 3 -0.758
10 Washington State 1 5 -2.476

 By request, I have included the Pac 10 rankings this year, and it looks similar to most pecking orders. It should be noted Oregon and Oregon State are the only undefeated teams in Pac-10 play. The Civil War could end up being another big time game, if both teams keep rolling.

 

Games to Look Forward Too Watching

 

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg) Average VAvg
Auburn (2.346) vs. Arkansas (1.924) 2.135
San Diego State (2.203) vs. Air Force (1.941) 2.072
California (1.758) @ USC (1.504) 1.631
Mississippi State (1.529) @ Florida (1.309) 1.419
Army (1.417) vs. Rutgers (0.783) 1.100

 Many people were pegging Auburn to give Alabama a run for their money. Arkansas did for a little while until Mallett let Alabama pick off his Heisman hopes at the end of the game. This week features another SEC vs. SEC matchup.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

 

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg) Average VAvg
LSU (2.151) vs. McNeese State (-7.571) 9.722
Boise State (3.957) @ San Jose State (-2.420) 6.377
Utah (3.859) @ Wyoming (-1.926) 5.784
TCU (4.127) vs. BYU (-1.519) 5.647
Arizona (2.322) @ Washington State (-2.771) 5.092

 We got through our very first week with no scheduled FCS teams. A few SEC teams have decided to take an easy win later in the schedule (Florida plays Appalachian State in week 12). I have no idea what to expect from Les Miles but the captain of anarchy may actually find a way to make this interesting, but I wouldn't count on it. 

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

 

Rank Team (Record) Opp VAvg
1 Oregon State (3-2) 1.929
2 BYU (2-4) 1.767
3 Marshall (1-4) 1.144
4 Washington (2-3) 1.113
5 Colorado State (1-5) 1.070
6 Wyoming (2-4) 0.914
7 UNLV (1-5) 0.910
8 New Mexico (0-6) 0.859
9 Florida (4-2) 0.849
10 Colorado (3-2) 0.843

 I have to give props to Oregon State. They have only one easy game, and as UCLA and Oregon saw, it's a rather feisty Washington State team. 

BYU still has TCU, and Utah. They have to start looking at their schedule, and wonder if they'll be bowl eligible this year. They do have winnable games, but if Utah State and a 3 point win over San Diego State wasn't enough to wake them up, they may be missing out this year, and let another team have a shot at the Las Vegas Bowl.

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

 

Rank Team (Record) Opp VAvg
120 Syracuse (4-1) -3.069
119 UTEP (5-1) -2.928
118 Ball State (2-4) -2.244
117 Kent State (2-3) -2.219
116 Ohio (3-3) -2.141
115 Middle Tennessee (2-3) -1.965
114 Nevada (6-0) -1.944
113 Oregon (6-0) -1.923
112 Northwestern (5-1) -1.864
111 Southern Miss (4-2) -1.836


Let's see... Akron, Washington, Maine, Colgate, USF. Good job, Syracuse. The sad thing is, that the Big East is pretty bad this year, so there is a decent chance they will end up being bowl eligible. 


Shout Outs!

Thanks to AKDuck for looking at things carefully, and helping some out this week. He provided great advice. Also thanks to CougarDuck for the suggestion. I took his suggestion and between AKDuck and him, I feel pretty good with how the diminished returns are shaping up.

Props to NewBorne. He wanted more information, and so I provided more information. It may take a bit of work, but each week the format has improved. I appreciate the feedback.

Please, feel free to provide feedback regarding the polls or extra curricular categories. 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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