FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 7

Computer Resume Poll Top 25

Rank Team VoW Avg Change Delta
1 Boise State 3.212 0.047 0
2 Oklahoma 2.779 0.581 4
3 Auburn 2.533 0.408 4
4 TCU 2.427 0.007 0
5 Oklahoma State 2.336 0.248 3
6 Ohio State 2.255 -0.325 -3
7 Utah 2.082 0.265 4
8 Alabama 2.070 -0.318 -3
9 Missouri 2.032 0.399 5
10 Oregon 2.032 0.033 -1
11 Stanford 1.969 0.081 -1
12 LSU 1.644 -0.996 -10
13 Michigan State 1.471 0.292 6
14 Florida 1.465 -0.348 -2
15 USC 1.462 0.474 5
16 North Carolina 1.453 0.586 8
17 NC State 1.352 0.520 8
18 Arizona 1.295 -0.266 -3
19 Oregon State 1.289 -0.516 -6
20 Iowa 1.229 0.297 2
21 Florida State 1.196 -0.222 -4
22 Texas 1.153 0.697 10
23 Virginia Tech 1.149 0.333 3
24 Nebraska 1.133 -0.403 -8
25 South Carolina 1.085 -0.120 -7

With Ohio State losing, and Boise State annihilating San Jose State, The Broncos maintain its position for two consecutive weeks in a row. A SHUFELT Computer Poll first. Florida is still getting credit for their schedule, despite losing for three weeks in row. Enjoy it while you can, Florida. Appalachian State is waiting to for you.

It does bring me up to answer an email I got from someone. They asked if I could show the week-to-week changes, like every other poll. The answer? Alright, fine!No. I will not. I think people look too much at the delta and say "Oh, why did you drop so-and-so more?" or "Why didn't so-and-so jump up more?". I don't/haven't punish teams, they punish themselves with their resume. If you REALLY want to know, you can make the week-to-week comparison. However, what I will [also] do is show the numerical impact of a team's resume.

I've moved the poll explanation to the bottom of the page. On to the extra curricular awards:

Flavor of the Week Award

 

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
Oklahoma (2.566) vs. Iowa State (-0.909) W 52-0 4.773
Wisconsin (2.052) vs. Ohio State (2.683) W 31-18 4.674
Georgia (0.867) vs. Vanderbilt (-0.858) W 43-0 4.638
USC (1.837) vs. California (0.826) W 48-14 4.423
Texas (0.912) @ Nebraska (2.736) W 20-13 4.330


Oklahoma walks away with the biggest win, by stomping on a poor Iowa State on both sides of the field. Also, I'm not sure if you heard, but Ohio State lost to Wisconsin. That totally matters in polls that use inertia, and punish teams via "The Delta".

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team. Teams will find themselves here if they fail to win very convincingly against an FCS team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
LSU (2.268) vs. McNeese State (-7.571) W 32-10 -4.601
Temple (0.541) vs. Bowling Green (-1.512) W 28-27 -0.770
ULM (-1.167) @ Western Kentucky (-2.831) W 35-30 -0.419
Eastern Michigan (-2.661) @ Ball State (-1.266) W 41-38 -0.350
Troy (1.100) vs. Louisiana (-1.792) W 31-24 -0.293


Les Miles' Tigers put up a less-than satisfactory win, not that any win over an FCS team is satisfactory. In non FCS news, a half-decent Temple barely beats a really bad Bowling Green

 

No Shame In Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
Boston College (-1.148) @ Florida State (2.580) L 19-24 0.827
Ole Miss (0.050) @ Alabama (2.570) L 10-23 0.323
Air Force (1.543) @ San Diego State (1.977) L 25-27 0.300
BYU (-1.793) @ TCU (4.029) L 3-31 -0.111
Arkansas (1.108) @ Auburn (2.435) L 43-65 -0.379


Boston College is not a good team, but they put up a good fight against FSU, who pulled the pants off of a Miami team that people thought were decent. They get a "Net Win" for their 5 point loss. The interesting thing here is all the teams were away. 

 

Face Palm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
North Texas (-1.943) vs. Florida International (-0.616) L 10-34 -4.641
Kansas (-1.654) vs. Kansas State (1.432) L 7-59 -4.418
Ball State (-1.266) vs. Eastern Michigan (-2.661) L 38-41 -4.279
Syracuse (0.959) vs. Pittsburgh (0.702) L 14-45 -4.008
Western Kentucky (-2.831) vs. ULM (-1.167) L 30-35 -3.785


We know FIU isn't a good team, but North Texas losing by 24 really shows how much worse they are. I didn't get a chance to watch this one. What a shame. In news of "Bad team loses to an okay team", we get to see the Kansas teams at it. And a somewhat predictable result too. Kansas is going to compete with Iowa State for the worst team in the conference.

Fun thing about this... all the teams were at home.

 

Conference Rankings

Rank Conference Win Loss Pct Teams VoW Avg
1 SEC 51 28 0.646 12 0.722
2 Big 12 51 23 0.689 12 0.565
3 Pac-10 37 25 0.597 10 0.545
4 Independent 12 8 0.600 3 0.012
5 Big Ten 49 22 0.690 11 0.010
6 MWC 30 30 0.500 9 -0.200
7 ACC 44 33 0.571 12 -0.284
8 Big East 28 20 0.583 8 -0.572
9 WAC 31 27 0.534 9 -0.721
10 C-USA 37 41 0.474 12 -1.024
11 Sun Belt 17 38 0.309 9 -1.796
12 MAC 33 55 0.375 13 -1.949


With the Pac-10's best two teams taking a bye week, the Pac-10 beats itself a little bit as the Big-12 improves itself by quite a bit, thanks to a resurgence of Texas, and a domination from Oklahoma.

 

Pac-10 Standings

Rank Team Wins Loss VoW Avg
1 Oregon 6 0 2.032
2 Stanford 5 1 1.969
3 USC 5 2 1.450
4 Arizona 5 1 1.295
5 Oregon State 3 3 1.289
6 California 3 3 0.414
7 UCLA 3 3 0.204
8 Washington 3 3 -0.142
9 Arizona State 3 3 -0.765
10 Washington State 1 6 -2.293


It is almost the same order as last week, except USC and Oregon State swapped positions. The big win by the Trojans shows a little bit more disparity amount the 3-9 teams.  Arizona and Oregon State are separated by a very tiny margin. California regresses a lot with their fail. They are similarly ranked with UCLA.

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

Rank Team (Record) Opp VAvg
1 Oregon State (3-3) 1.954
2 BYU (2-5) 1.577
3 Marshall (1-5) 1.237
4 Colorado (3-3) 1.001
5 Wyoming (2-5) 0.998
6 Colorado State (2-5) 0.977
7 UNLV (2-5) 0.866
8 Florida (4-3) 0.862
9 New Mexico (0-6) 0.821
10 East Carolina (4-2) 0.789


So, this team named Baylor, who has sucked, has been winning games. They have been competitive enough to boost Colorado's schedule from 10th to 4th. Hello East Carolina.

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

Rank Team (Record) Opp VAvg
120 Syracuse (4-2) -2.990
119 UTEP (5-2) -2.828
118 Ball State (2-5) -2.217
117 Ohio (4-3) -2.119
116 Kent State (2-4) -2.088
115 Southern Miss (5-2) -1.969
114 Northern Illinois (4-3) -1.960
113 Oregon (6-0) -1.937
112 Northwestern (5-1) -1.922
111 Middle Tennessee (2-4) -1.917


Syracuse added their toughest game of the year with Pittsburgh. It still wasn't enough, so they repeat the award.

 

Games to Look Forward to Watching

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg) Average VAvg
Missouri (2.749) vs. Oklahoma (2.261) 2.505
Oklahoma State (2.512) vs. Nebraska (2.406) 2.459
Iowa (2.296) vs. Wisconsin (1.849) 2.072
Auburn (2.077) vs. LSU (2.038) 2.058
Michigan State (2.342) @ Northwestern (1.351) 1.846


Last week, I featured Auburn and Arkansas as the best game to look forward to watching. 108 points, 1036 yards and 141 plays later, we get one of the craziest shootouts in SEC history. Cam Newton got the announcers to go "Tim Whobow?". Yeah... for all of you that hated the Tim Tebow talk, they found their replacement, and he's a freakish athlete named Cam Newton. I hear they have already carved his name into the Heisman trophy.

This week, the Big-12 features a few undefeated teams matchups. This should test to see how good the Big-12 really is. Also, Auburn and LSU looks to be another interesting match. Seeing as Auburn took a 3 point lead at the end of the 3rd and pumped out 28 more points in the 4th, and it feels like Les Miles makes every game in Batton Rogue a crap shoot at the end, I'm putting my bet on Auburn - which will ensure an LSU victory.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg) Average VAvg
San Diego State (1.756) @ New Mexico (-3.351) -0.798
Utah (3.265) vs. Colorado State (-1.593) 0.836
Stanford (2.207) vs. Washington State (-2.447) -0.120
Boise State (3.676) vs. Louisiana Tech (-0.469) 1.603
Oregon (3.645) vs. UCLA (-0.112) 1.767


San Diego State isn't a great team - they are competitive for their conference, but on a national scale... eh, but New Mexico is current ranked 118th in the country on my poll, just ahead of Ball State and Akron. San Diego State should be able to handle New Mexico with ease.

Probably the most surprising thing is UCLA. The computers see this as a pretty big mismatch, but it is more with the discrepancy of on the field performance. Let's be honest, UCLA's offense just hasn't compared with Oregon's offense. However, UCLA is ranked 45th in the computer poll. That should be enough to boost Oregon's resume, as long as Oregon can pull off a somewhat lopsided win.

 

Shout Outs

First to Missing Barry over at CGB. He's the other crazy insano dude that does resume style computer-ish rankings. I submitted my computer poll last week to CGB's community poll. We both got called out for being the most divergent voters. Whoo! Go us! We had some good discussion regarding polling over there, and it's good to bounce ideas and understand the methodology of other people.

Next, to everyone that has provided feedback in the comments and emails. I appreciate hearing from you all, and to help make sure I'm not going insane.

Finally, to the University of Wisconsin. Thanks. Now we are in control of our own destiny to another bowl game!

 

About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now already know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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