FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 5

Here are things about the poll:

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0.
    • NEW!: There is now a diminished return on MOV. The larger the MOV, the less each point is worth. 
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • NEW! Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • NEW! VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon  's score.
  • You now already know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.
    Here is the current standings of the Top 25.

Rank Team Value of Win Avg. Diff.
1 Alabama 3.728 0.000
2 Oregon 3.088 0.640
3 Florida 3.001 0.727
4 Boise State 2.979 0.748
5 Ohio State 2.961 0.767
6 Oklahoma State 2.927 0.800
7 Oklahoma 2.508 1.220
8 Auburn 2.375 1.352
9 LSU 2.293 1.435
10 Arizona 2.167 1.561
11 Stanford 2.053 1.674
12 TCU 1.929 1.799
13 Oregon State 1.849 1.879
14 Iowa 1.651 2.076
15 Utah 1.539 2.188
16 USC 1.293 2.434
17 Missouri 1.244 2.484
18 UCLA 1.239 2.489
19 Miami (FL) 1.181 2.547
20 Notre Dame 1.090 2.638
21 California 1.067 2.660
22 North Carolina 0.899 2.828
23 Michigan 0.801 2.927
24 Washington 0.689 3.038
25 Florida State 0.621 3.107


There is a giant gap between Alabama and everyone else. 2-6 are all pretty close with each other. The resumes of some that have had tough competitions are making an appearance this week. Oregon State, by far, has the best Opp Avg in the country at 2.449. Them, Florida, Washington, Notre Dame, and UCLA are in the top 10 of Opp Avg. It is still early in the season, and some schools that have played FCS opponents are still being kept down by their atrocious schedules. I would anticipate seeing Nebraska, or Texas get into the top 25 next week. Nevada is going to start getting hammered due to the WAC. If Baylor can pull off a win vs. Texas Tech, I wouldn't be too shocked to see them get in the rankings next week.

Just remember, it is still early in the season, so there will be some big changes week-to-week, until we get through the second half of the season.

Now on to the extra curricular awards:


Flavor of the Week

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team Opponent VoW
Oregon Stanford 5.667
Alabama Florida 5.067
Virginia Tech NC State 4.229
Baylor Kansas 4.152
Florida State Virginia 4.048


Oregon went down 21-3 early Against Stanford, and by the end of it, they were leading by 21. Stanford has had a great team this year, so seeing Oregon on top here is no surprise. Of course, Alabama beating Florida is another great win for them.


Face Palm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team Opponent VoW
San Jose State UC Davis -11.095
Memphis Tulsa -4.248
Akron Northern Illinois -3.829
Boston College Notre Dame -3.448
Central Michigan Ball State -3.429


Another scheduled FCS team gets a win this season. They beat Southern Utah back in Week 3 by only 5 points. They are bad. Really bad. Like - probably would be in the bottom half of the Big Sky bad.

If we were to toss out FCS results, Memphis getting embarrassed by Tulsa by 41 is fairly funny in itself.


No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team Opponent VoW
Stanford Oregon 2.705
Texas A&M Oklahoma State 1.881
Tennessee LSU 1.210
Illinois Ohio State 1.105
Florida Alabama 0.762


I don't know about you, but I think Stanford is a damn good team, despite losing to Oregon by 21 points. They should feel pretty good about their season, as they could easily end up in the Rose Bowl, or the Alamo Bowl this year.


Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team. Teams will find themselves here if they fail to win very convincingly against an FCS team.

Team Opponent VoW
Fresno State Cal Poly -7.000
Mississippi State Alcorn State -5.857
UTEP New Mexico -1.790
Maryland Duke -0.781
UCLA Washington State -0.686


WAC gets no help as Fresno State decided to schedule Cal Poly. Mississippi State scheduled Alcorn. Zzzzzzz...

In games that didn't feature an FCS opponent, we have... UTEP and New Mexico? Oh boy...

After UCLA shocked the world by beating Texas last week, they almost got shocked themselves by WSU - at home.


Conference Strength Standings

Conf. Win Loss VoW Avg
Pac-10 29 17 0.830
SEC 38 19 0.800
Big 12 41 12 0.305
Big Ten 39 13 -0.141
Independent 7 7 -0.197
MWC 21 22 -0.486
ACC 32 23 -0.809
C-USA 27 28 -1.137
WAC 22 20 -1.152
Big East 19 14 -1.619
Sun Belt 10 28 -1.854
MAC 24 39 -1.919


As it is pretty much shown in the Top 25, there are three good conferences right now. The Pac-10 gets the edge over the SEC this week, but the margin is very small.

Best Games of the Upcoming Week


Match Up Avg of Teams' Avg
Florida State vs. Miami (FL) 2.499
Michigan vs. Michigan State 2.343
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas 2.012
LSU vs. Florida 1.900
Syracuse vs. USF 1.881


Florida State vs. Miami (FL) are two teams that have had comparable results on the field. While Florida State has had an easier schedule, both teams have something to prove, and this is their game to do it. Both teams will look to improve their resume from this game, unless it turns into a blow out.

Michigan vs. Michigan State is the same story as FSU and Miami.

Texas A&M and Arkansas are two teams that have very comparable resumes - only one noteworthy game in a soft slate and that one game was within a close margin. 

LSU vs. Florida.  We'll hopefully get to see if Florida is legit. It's always fun to watch LSU, just to see what Les Miles does next at the very, very end of the game. 

Syracuse vs. USF is not really an exciting match that has any relevance, but it could turn out to be a rather exciting game.

Shoutout!

Finally, I want to give props to the comments last week, and to Matt Daddy. Keep the advice and suggestions coming. I'll update the post with a spreadsheet soon.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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