FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll - Week 9

Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 9

Rank Team Record VoW Avg Change Delta
1 Boise State (7-0) 3.379 0.049 ↔ 0
2 TCU (9-0) 2.749 0.120 ↑ 2
3 Auburn (9-0) 2.724 0.058 ↔ 0
4 Ohio State (8-1) 2.713 0.016 ↓ 2
5 Oregon (8-0) 2.608 0.409 ↑ 3
6 Alabama (7-1) 2.393 0.113 ↑ 1
7 Oklahoma (7-1) 2.388 -0.079 ↓ 2
8 Utah (8-0) 2.260 0.121 ↑ 1
9 Missouri (7-1) 2.203 -0.220 ↓ 3
10 Oklahoma State (7-1) 2.096 0.075 ↔ 0
11 Stanford (7-1) 1.878 0.310 ↑ 3
12 Nebraska (7-1) 1.824 0.175 ↔ 0
13 Iowa (6-2) 1.767 0.508 ↑ 7
14 Oregon State (4-3) 1.685 0.331 ↑ 3
15 Arizona (7-1) 1.626 0.049 ↓ 2
16 Florida (5-3) 1.466 0.131 ↑ 2
17 Michigan State (8-1) 1.395 -0.288 ↓ 6
18 USC (5-3) 1.314 -0.237 ↓ 3
19 LSU (7-1) 1.262 -0.096 ↓ 3
20 Virginia Tech (6-2) 1.227 0.045 ↑ 3
21 Florida State (6-2) 1.174 -0.109 ↓ 2
22 Hawaii (7-2) 1.108 0.190 ↑ 6
23 South Carolina (6-2) 1.074 -0.158 ↓ 2
24 NC State (6-2) 1.056 0.233 ↑ 5
25 Mississippi State (7-2) 1.039 0.104 ↑ 2
Dropped: Georgia, Miami (FL), North Carolina

Boise State remains on top for a fourth consecutive week, and they'll likely stay there, thanks to Hawaii for having now a top 25 resume (partially thanks to Oregon).

So, as I was putting in the data, I got to see Oregon rise higher and higher - Stanfords huge win over UW pole-vaulted Oregon into a clear 1st place... and then. well... scroll down to the Face Palm Awards, and you'll see what happened. (Spoiler Alert: Thanks to transitive properties, we got coug'd.)

One little note note, due to formula changes regarding the shutout bonus, the delta won't match the poll from last week. 

Extra Curriculars

Due to popular demand, I am adding a whole new poll!

 

Machine vs. Man

This is a fairly simple concept. It is my computer poll rankings compared to what my own personal rankings would be. When I looked at it, I used a mixed bag of resume and "who is better".

 

Computer Team Record
JShufelt Team Record
1 Boise State (7-0)
1 Oregon (8-0)
2 TCU (9-0)
2 Auburn (9-0)
3 Auburn (9-0)
3 Alabama (7-1)
4 Ohio State (8-1)
4 Ohio State (8-1)
5 Oregon (8-0)
5 TCU (9-0)
6 Alabama (7-1)
6 Boise State (7-0)
7 Oklahoma (7-1)
7 Missouri (7-1)
8 Utah (8-0)
8 Utah (8-0)
9 Missouri (7-1)
9 Stanford (7-1)
10 Oklahoma State (7-1)
10 Nebraska (7-1)
11 Stanford (7-1)
11 Wisconsin (7-1)
12 Nebraska (7-1)
12 Oklahoma (7-1)
13 Iowa (6-2)
13 LSU (7-1)
14 Oregon State (4-3)
14 Michigan State (8-1)
15 Arizona (7-1)
15 Arizona (7-1)
16 Florida (5-3)
16 Oklahoma State (7-1)
17 Michigan State (8-1)
17 Arkansas (6-2)
18 USC (5-3)
18 Iowa (6-2)
19 LSU (7-1)
19 South Carolina (6-2)
20 Virginia Tech (6-2)
20 NC State (6-2)
21 Florida State (6-2)
21 Florida State (6-2)
22 Hawaii (7-2)
22 Mississippi State (7-2)
23 South Carolina (6-2)
23 Virginia Tech (6-2)
24 NC State (6-2)
24 USC (5-3)
25 Mississippi State (7-2)
25 Illinois (5-3)

 

The computer loves Boise State, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Oregon State, USC, and Hawaii, a lot more than I do.

I like Oregon, Alabama, Wisconsin (Unranked!), LSU, Arkansas, and South Carolina.


Flavor of the Week Award

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Iowa (2.366) vs. Michigan State (-0.522) W 37-6 5.284
Stanford (3.062) @ Washington (0.971) W 41-0 5.257
Oregon (4.256) @ USC (-0.115) W 53-32 4.825
Nebraska (2.665) vs. Missouri (-0.306) W 31-17 4.522
Oregon State (0.374) vs. California (-0.307) W 35-7 3.946


I wasn't ever really big on Michigan State, and Iowa knocked some reality into them, and Nebraska did the same to Missouri. Aside from that, how about those Pac-10 wins? It did a lot to boost the Pac-10's overall VoW. Arizona State was able to pull in the 11th biggest win in the country for  week 9.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
North Carolina (0.591) vs. William & Mary (-7.571) W 21-17 -6.466
Army (1.306) vs. VMI (-7.571) W 29-7 -4.601
New Mexico State (-2.594) vs. San Jose State (-2.659) W 29-27 -1.710
Iowa State (-0.252) vs. Kansas (-2.088) W 28-16 -0.367
Colorado State (-1.635) vs. New Mexico (-3.604) W 38-14 -0.166


North Carolina, COME ON! Four point win over W&M? Aside from that, you have a bunch of awful teams playing a bunch of even more awful teams. I guess we know San Jose State IS worse than New Mexico State, just in case you were wondering.

 

No Shame in Losing Award

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
Air Force (0.563) vs. Utah (3.756) L 23-28 0.925
Louisiana Tech (-0.961) @ Boise State (4.306) L 20-49 0.487
Florida State (2.160) @ NC State (1.524) L 24-28 0.209
Missouri (2.441) @ Nebraska (2.665) L 17-31 -0.061
Kentucky (-0.043) @ Mississippi State (1.523) L 17-24 -0.165


Air Force looks more and more like a typical Air Force. Competitive, but just not able to beat the good teams. LA Tech put up a little fight against Boise State. I'm sure no Florida State fan is holding their head high in losing to NC State, but NC State isn't bad.

 

Face Palm Award

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Opp VAvg) Score VoW
Western Kentucky (-2.072) vs. North Texas (-1.172) L 6-33 -5.670
New Mexico (-3.604) @ Colorado State (-1.635) L 14-38 -4.341
Memphis (-3.172) vs. Houston (1.499) L 17-56 -4.082
Washington State (-2.898) @ Arizona State (0.899) L 0-42 -3.981
Eastern Michigan (-2.972) vs. Toledo (0.564) L 7-42 -3.959


Ahh... here we go. The teams that are keeping Oregon down. New Mexico and Washington State go off and make themselves even worse. Did Washington State lose their frisk? Either way, the Lobos and Cougars can get a little bit of a chuckle for keeping the Ducks down this week. Silver lining? I doubt it.

 

Conference Rankings

Rank Conference Record Pct Teams VoW Avg
1 SEC (62-38) 0.620 12 0.718
2 Pac-10 (46-34) 0.575 10 0.607
3 Big 12 (63-35) 0.643 12 0.539
4 Big Ten (59-32) 0.648 11 0.243
5 Independent (14-11) 0.560 3 -0.235
6 ACC (54-42) 0.563 12 -0.250
7 Big East (35-27) 0.565 8 -0.389
8 MWC (37-39) 0.487 9 -0.391
9 WAC (38-34) 0.528 9 -0.635
10 C-USA (47-51) 0.480 12 -0.908
11 MAC (47-67) 0.412 13 -1.548
12 Sun Belt (23-45) 0.338 9 -1.610


The SEC essentially maintains their score through the week by gaining a whole thousandths of a point. The Pac-10 jumped up by a fairly significant margin this week, and they retake the 2nd spot. The Big Ten is also looking better. The Big East and MWC shuffle a little bit, but they are still relatively similar. (And bad)

Pac-10 Conference Standings

Rank Team Record Loss Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 Oregon (8-0) 0 4.256 -1.444 2.608
2 Stanford (7-1) 2 3.062 -1.210 1.878
3 Oregon State (4-3) 1 0.374 1.691 1.685
4 Arizona (7-1) 1 2.627 -1.145 1.626
5 USC (5-3) 3 1.140 0.417 1.314
6 California (4-4) 3 0.662 -0.253 0.358
7 UCLA (3-5) 4 -1.017 1.229 -0.048
8 Washington (3-5) 4 -1.640 1.354 -0.425
9 Arizona State (4-4) 4 0.899 -1.550 -0.621
10 Washington State (1-8) 7 -2.898 0.645 -2.304


Oregon is head, shoulders, and torso higher than anyone else in the Pac-10 right now, as they jump up a significant 0.576 points on the year (With 9 weeks of data, that's huge). Oregon State also takes a nice jump. They haven't looked as GOOD as Arizona, but their competition has been significantly more difficult overall.

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
1 Oregon State (4-3) Pac-10 1.691
2 Washington (3-5) Pac-10 1.354
3 UCLA (3-5) Pac-10 1.229
4 UNLV (1-7) MWC 1.142
5 Marshall (2-6) C-USA 1.023
6 Colorado (3-5) Big 12 1.019
7 Memphis (1-7) C-USA 0.810
8 BYU (3-5) MWC 0.772
9 Notre Dame (4-5) Independent 0.762
10 Rice (2-6) C-USA 0.743


Still have Oregon State on the list, but Washington may be taking over the top spot as they visit Autzen this week. Also, yes, you are reading that correctly. The three toughest schedules to-date belong to Pac-10 schools.

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
120 UTEP (5-4) C-USA -2.394
119 Syracuse (6-2) Big East -2.158
118 Middle Tennessee (3-4) Sun Belt -2.078
117 San Diego State (6-2) MWC -2.000
116 Fresno State (5-2) WAC -1.918
115 Nevada (7-1) WAC -1.892
114 Southern Miss (5-3) C-USA -1.850
113 Ball State (2-7) MAC -1.819
112 Ohio (6-3) MAC -1.800
111 Kent State (4-4) MAC -1.757


What's this? No more Oregon? Also, the only AQ team is Syracuse, who might find themselves actually ending up in the Orange Bowl this year. They've played two FCS schools, so they are one more win away from being Bowl Eligible.

 

Games to Look Forward to Watching

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg) Average VAvg
TCU (3.891) @ Utah (3.390) 3.641
Stanford (2.762) vs. Arizona (2.469) 2.616
Alabama (2.621) @ LSU (1.637) 2.129
Oklahoma State (2.122) @ Baylor (1.621) 1.872
UCF (1.956) @ Houston (1.362) 1.659


This is quite a line up, and will do a lot in regards to conference standings. TCU and Utah is looking like a mighty fine matchup. They both sport similar resumes for similar reasons. Stanford vs. Arizona also has Rose Bowl/Alamo Bowl implications. Much like TCU and Utah, The Cardinal and the Wildcats sport similar resumes for similar reasons.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg) VAvg Diff
Oregon (3.781) vs. Washington (-1.313) 5.093
Michigan State (1.700) vs. Minnesota (-1.808) 3.508
California (0.662) @ Washington State (-2.595) 3.257
San Diego State (1.876) vs. Colorado State (-1.360) 3.236
Tulsa (1.072) vs. Rice (-1.676) 2.748


There is clearly a big disparity between these two teams, but I think Washington is rabid for a win over Oregon. In my simulations, Washington won 4 out of 20 matchups. 

Shout Outs

Thanks to atomsareenough at CGB. In discussion with the poll, he helped bring some light in regards to the generous shutout bonuses, and helped influence me to make it more dynamic in regards to the team they played.


About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • New! There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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