FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 11

Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 11

Rank Team Record VoW Avg Change Delta LW Rank
1 Boise State (9-0) 3.498 -0.051 ↔ 0 1
2 TCU (11-0) 2.989 -0.184 ↔ 0 2
3 Ohio State (9-1) 2.888 0.143 ↑ 1 4
4 Oregon (10-0) 2.797 0.029 ↓ 1 3
5 Alabama (8-2) 2.552 0.165 ↑ 1 6
6 Oklahoma State (9-1) 2.511 -0.008 ↓ 1 5
7 Auburn (11-0) 2.271 0.078 ↔ 0 7
8 Stanford (9-1) 2.203 0.014 ↔ 0 8
9 Oklahoma (8-2) 2.102 0.232 ↑ 1 10
10 LSU (9-1) 1.793 0.238 ↑ 5 15
11 Missouri (8-2) 1.792 0.052 ↑ 1 12
12 Arkansas (8-2) 1.581 0.178 ↑ 4 16
13 Virginia Tech (8-2) 1.516 0.250 ↑ 7 20
14 Nebraska (9-1) 1.484 -0.196 ↔ 0 14
15 Iowa (7-3) 1.470 -0.283 ↓ 4 11
16 Michigan State (9-1) 1.433 0.092 ↑ 2 18
17 USC (7-3) 1.431 0.228 ↑ 4 21
18 Utah (8-2) 1.431 -0.511 ↓ 9 9
19 Wisconsin (9-1) 1.408 0.321 ↑ 4 23
20 Florida (6-4) 1.386 -0.329 ↓ 7 13
21 Texas A&M (7-3) 1.321 0.327 ↑ 3 24
22 South Carolina (7-3) 1.263 0.514 ↑ 9 31
23 Nevada (9-1) 1.249 0.149 ↓ 1 22
24 Miami (FL) (7-3) 1.145 0.237 ↑ 3 27
25 Hawaii (7-3) 1.091 0.115 ↑ 1 26
Dropped: Arizona, Mississippi State, Oregon State

So this week's shakers and movers are Utah, South Carolina, and Oregon State, all rising or falling over .400 on their VoW Average. In terms of ranking changes, Virgina Tech, LSU, Utah, Florida, Arizona, Oregon State and South Carolina all shifted around a substantial amount.

On to the Extra Curriculars!

Extra Curriculars

Machine vs. Man

This is a poll vs. poll comparison. The poll on the right is how I personally would vote as a human voter. The poll on the left is my computer poll.

Computer Team   JShufelt Team
1 Boise State (9-0)   1 Oregon (9-0)
2 TCU (11-0)   2 Auburn (10-0)
3 Ohio State (9-1)   3 TCU (10-0)
4 Oregon (10-0)   4 Oklahoma State (8-1)
5 Alabama (8-2)   5 Stanford (8-1)
6 Oklahoma State (9-1)   6 Nebraska (8-1)
7 Auburn (11-0)   7 LSU (8-1)
8 Stanford (9-1)   8 Boise State (8-0)
9 Oklahoma (8-2)   9 Wisconsin (8-1)
10 LSU (9-1)   10 Alabama (7-2)
11 Missouri (8-2)   11 Ohio State (8-1)
12 Arkansas (8-2)   12 Iowa (7-2)
13 Virginia Tech (8-2)   13 Michigan State (9-1)
14 Nebraska (9-1)   14 Oklahoma (7-2)
15 Iowa (7-3)   15 Utah (8-1)
16 Michigan State (9-1)   16 Missouri (7-2)
17 USC (7-3)   17 Arizona (7-2)
18 Utah (8-2)   18 Arkansas (7-2)
19 Wisconsin (9-1)   19 Florida (6-3)
20 Florida (6-4)   20 Nevada (8-1)
21 Texas A&M (7-3)   21 USC (6-3)
22 South Carolina (7-3)   22 Mississippi State (7-2)
23 Nevada (9-1)   23 Penn State (6-3)
24 Miami (FL) (7-3)   24 Temple (8-2)
25 Hawaii (7-3)   25 Virginia Tech (7-2)


So, I'm still not high on Boise State. I probably am lower on them than nearly everyone in the country, including well known Boise State hater Mark May. Why? It isn't so much I don't think they are a bad team (Eighth in the country is still freaking awesome), but in my mind, I can't see them beating any team I have in front of them. I also have Ohio State, Utah, Oklahoma, and Florida, notably lower than my computer polls.

On the other side of the coin, I am high on Stanford and Nebraska, Wisconsin, Auburn, LSU, Michigan State, Penn State and Temple.

 

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Notre Dame (0.163) vs. Utah (2.181) W 28-3 5.058
South Carolina (1.315) @ Florida (0.868) W 36-14 4.961
LSU (2.136) vs. ULM (-1.43) W 51-0 4.243
Northern Illinois (2.046) vs. Toledo (0.118) W 65-30 4.012
Boise State (4.33) @ Idaho (-0.593) W 52-14 3.885


Two weeks in a row, Utah gives up the best win to the other team, though this may just be a result of the best team losing. They have taken a considerable decline the last two weeks.1 

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Florida Atlantic (-0.709) vs. Louisiana (-2.054) W 24-23 -1.293
Utah State (-1.005) @ San Jose State (-2.589) W 38-34 -0.754
Tulane (-1.201) vs. Rice (-2.136) W 54-49 -0.696
Marshall (-1.141) vs. Memphis (-3.252) W 28-13 -0.692
Western Michigan (-0.046) vs. Eastern Michigan (-2.908) W 45-30 -0.479


Hardly anything all that not worthy. Just a ton of crappy teams beating other crappy teams.. 

 

No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
San Diego State (1.695) @ TCU (3.984) L 35-40 2.272
California (0.592) vs. Oregon (3.992) L 13-15 1.718
Arizona State (0.458) vs. Stanford (2.967) L 13-17 0.620
Fresno State (1.004) vs. Nevada (2.778) L 34-35 0.492
Clemson (0.584) @ Florida State (1.652) L 13-16 0.415


Quite a few teams mid-level teams played very close to top 25 teams, but San Diego State and California win this by a significant margin. The other notable losses just aren't as good. However, it should be noted they are all net wins, and San Diego State and California actually improved their resume, despite earning the dreaded "L".

 

Face Palm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Oregon State (-0.194) vs. Washington State (-2.276) L 14-31 -5.435
Wyoming (-2.156) @ UNLV (-2.397) L 16-42 -5.339
Buffalo (-2.114) vs. Ball State (-0.745) L 3-20 -5.088
Colorado State (-1.902) vs. BYU (-0.183) L 10-49 -4.980
Ole Miss (-0.669) @ Tennessee (-0.361) L 14-52 -4.445


Umm... Wow. It's got to suck to be "That team", but it was going to happen eventually, and Oregon State was it. The most shocking thing is that WSU didn't just win by a narrow margin, but by a fairly significant score

Conference Rankings

Here is how the conferences stack up. Sorted by the highest to lowest VoW Avg.

Rank Conference Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 SEC - (77-46) 0.908 -0.075 0.723
2 Pac-10 - (55-43) 0.560 0.055 0.559
3 Big 12 - (75-47) 0.659 -0.078 0.496
4 Big Ten - (69-42) 0.779 -0.297 0.304
5 Independent - (18-12) 0.777 -0.330 0.241
6 ACC - (66-54) 0.414 -0.381 -0.142
7 Big East - (41-33) 0.613 -0.634 -0.248
8 MWC - (46-48) -0.089 -0.203 -0.403
9 WAC - (46-42) 0.237 -0.526 -0.497
10 C-USA - (57-64) -0.292 -0.440 -0.913
11 MAC - (56-77) -0.476 -0.696 -1.423
12 Sun Belt - (30-56) -0.844 -0.528 -1.540


I changed the data a little bit here, and decided to show a bit more information. One thing it shows is that the Pac-10's Opp VAvg is the only conference with a positive number. Meaning: They've had the toughest top-to-bottom schedule than the other conferences, to date.

The SEC gets a nice little boost this weekend, and the Notre Dame gets a big enough win to swap them around with the ACC.

In summery, there is 1 great conference, 2 good conferences, 2 okay conferences, a handful of bad ones, and a couple REALLY awful conferences.

 

Pac-10 Conference Standings

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

Rank Conference Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 Oregon - (10-0) 3.992 -1.083 2.797
2 Stanford - (9-1) 2.967 -0.724 2.203
3 USC - (7-3) 1.166 0.451 1.431
4 Arizona - (7-3) 1.597 -0.590 1.090
5 Oregon State - (4-5) -0.194 0.744 0.507
6 California - (5-5) 0.592 -0.158 0.353
7 UCLA - (4-5) -0.795 0.827 -0.057
8 Arizona State - (4-6) 0.458 -0.834 -0.380
9 Washington - (3-6) -1.903 1.496 -0.553
10 Washington State - (2-9) -2.276 0.427 -1.805


Not much in ranking changes, but Cal improved by quite a bit, and Oregon State dropped quite a bit.

Oregon State also really hurt their bowl campaign. They still need two wins, and their schedule goes USC, Stanford, and then Oregon. What was a possible scenario gets moved over into the improbable scenario.

Cal almost became bowl eligible, with giving Oregon a little bit of a scare, but they came up short. They have Stanford, which is probably unlikely, and they have Washington, which is their best chance to get eligible. It may be enough for them to go to the Holiday Bowl.

UCLA needs two more wins, which is possible. They Washington, Arizona State, and USC left on their schedule. Beating Washington this week would go a long, long ways for their bowl aspirations.

Arizona State's close loss to Stanford makes them ineligible for a bowl this year, as they played two FCS teams earlier in the year. They will be playing to upset UCLA and Arizona.

Washington can still make a bowl game. They have UCLA, Cal, and WSU left on their schedule. As far as I can tell, they could win any and all, or lose any and all. They need to win all their remaining games to go bowling.

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
1 Washington - (3-6) Pac-10 1.496
2 Notre Dame - (5-5) Independent 1.016
3 UCLA - (4-5) Pac-10 0.827
4 Oregon State - (4-5) Pac-10 0.744
5 Florida - (6-4) SEC 0.663
6 Vanderbilt - (2-8) SEC 0.535
7 UNLV - (2-8) MWC 0.499
8 USC - (7-3) Pac-10 0.451
9 Washington State - (2-9) Pac-10 0.427
10 East Carolina - (6-4) C-USA 0.425


Last week, there were 4 Pac-10 teams. This week, we welcome USC to the scene to make it 5 Pac-10 teams. Next week, it is very likely we'll see future Pac-10 team, Colorado on this list. 

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
120 Ball State - (4-7) MAC -2.132
119 Middle Tennessee - (3-6) Sun Belt -1.855
118 UTEP - (6-5) C-USA -1.765
117 Syracuse - (7-3) Big East -1.687
116 Ohio - (8-3) MAC -1.407
115 Southern Miss - (7-3) C-USA -1.387
114 Virginia - (4-6) ACC -1.352
113 Northern Illinois - (8-2) MAC -1.347
112 Nevada - (9-1) WAC -1.325
111 Fresno State - (6-3) WAC -1.269

Syracuse and Virgina are the only AQ teams on the list - a list filled with MAC, WAC, and C-USA teams.


Games to Look Forward to Watching

These are this week's matchups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Team VAvg Diff Team VAvg Avg
Utah (2.181) @ San Diego State (1.695) 0.487 1.938
Virginia Tech (2.285) @ Miami (FL) (1.525) 0.760 1.905
Temple (1.843) vs. Ohio (1.439) 0.403 1.641
Arkansas (2.053) @ Mississippi State (1.091) 0.962 1.572
Florida State (1.652) @ Maryland (1.246) 0.406 1.449

 

So last week, I asked Miss State to put up or shut up against Alabama. They lost, and are now out of my top 25. But I see here, they are playing Arkansas... which could be interesting.

Last week was full of bad matchups, but some of those bad match-ups turned into big upsets. This week, we have better matches. Any of these games could be fun to watch.


Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Team VAvg Diff Team VAvg Avg
Nevada (2.778) vs. New Mexico State (-2.572) 5.351 0.103
Oklahoma State (2.562) @ Kansas (-1.776) 4.338 0.393
Hawaii (1.395) vs. San Jose State (-2.589) 3.984 -0.597
Air Force (1.085) @ UNLV (-2.397) 3.482 -0.656
Boise State (4.330) vs. Fresno State (1.004) 3.326 2.667

 

Why, Bosie State, what are you doing on this list? Again, for like... the 24th time. But really, Nevada is going to obliterate New Mexico State. Not great matchups here.

About the only one that I think has any hope would be Air Force and UNLV, but then again - UNLV IS sooo BAD.


About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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