FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 12

Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 12

Rank Team Record VoW Avg Change Delta LW Rank
1 Boise State (10-0) 3.927 0.428 ↔ 0 1
2 TCU (11-0) 3.078 0.089 ↔ 0 2
3 Ohio State (10-1) 2.978 0.090 ↔ 0 3
4 Oregon (10-0) 2.767 -0.030 ↔ 0 4
5 Oklahoma State (10-1) 2.452 -0.059 ↑ 1 6
6 Oklahoma (9-2) 2.432 0.329 ↑ 3 9
7 Stanford (10-1) 2.421 0.218 ↑ 1 8
8 Auburn (11-0) 2.311 0.040 ↓ 1 7
9 Alabama (9-2) 2.101 -0.451 ↓ 4 5
10 Missouri (9-2) 2.016 0.224 ↑ 1 11
11 Arkansas (9-2) 1.771 0.190 ↑ 1 12
12 Virginia Tech (9-2) 1.760 0.244 ↑ 1 13
13 LSU (10-1) 1.690 -0.103 ↓ 3 10
14 Utah (9-2) 1.641 0.210 ↑ 4 18
15 Wisconsin (10-1) 1.586 0.178 ↑ 4 19
16 South Carolina (8-3) 1.540 0.277 ↑ 6 22
17 Texas A&M (8-3) 1.512 0.191 ↑ 4 21
18 Nebraska (9-2) 1.488 0.004 ↓ 4 14
19 Iowa (7-4) 1.387 -0.082 ↓ 4 15
20 Michigan State (10-1) 1.300 -0.132 ↓ 4 16
21 Florida State (8-3) 1.295 0.264 ↑ 6 27
22 Nevada (10-1) 1.241 -0.007 ↑ 1 23
23 Notre Dame (6-5) 1.174 0.322 ↑ 6 29
24 NC State (8-3) 1.114 0.191 ↑ 4 28
25 USC (7-4) 1.068 -0.364 ↓ 8 17
Dropped: Hawaii, Miami (FL), Florida

So in terms of resume scoring, the biggest movers in the top 25 are Boise State, increasing their score by .428, and Alabama, getting slammed -.451 for playing an FCS team. Other notable movers are USC, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma, all moving by a margin of .300 or greater.

In terms of pecking order, Florida State, Notre Dame and NC State jump into the top 25, South Carolina moves up 6 spots, and USC barely stays in the top 25 after being smacked by Mr. Hyde.

Extra Curriculars

Machine vs. Man

This is a poll vs. poll comparison. The poll on the right is how I personally would vote as a human voter. The poll on the left is my computer poll.

Computer Team   JShufelt Team
1 Boise State (10-0)   1 Oregon (10-0)
2 TCU (11-0)   2 Auburn (11-0)
3 Ohio State (10-1)   3 TCU (11-0)
4 Oregon (10-0)   4 Stanford (10-1)
5 Oklahoma State (10-1)   5 Wisconsin (10-1)
6 Oklahoma (9-2)   6 LSU (10-1)
7 Stanford (10-1)   7 Michigan State (10-1)
8 Auburn (11-0)   8 Boise State (10-0)
9 Alabama (9-2)   9 Ohio State (10-1)
10 Missouri (9-2)   10 Oklahoma State (10-1)
11 Arkansas (9-2)   11 Alabama (9-2)
12 Virginia Tech (9-2)   12 Missouri (9-2)
13 LSU (10-1)   13 Arkansas (9-2)
14 Utah (9-2)   14 Oklahoma (9-2)
15 Wisconsin (10-1)   15 Nebraska (9-2)
16 South Carolina (8-3)   16 South Carolina (8-3)
17 Texas A&M (8-3)   17 Utah (9-2)
18 Nebraska (9-2)   18 Florida State (8-3)
19 Iowa (7-4)   19 Texas A&M (8-3)
20 Michigan State (10-1)   20 Nevada (10-1)
21 Florida State (8-3)   21 Virginia Tech (9-2)
22 Nevada (10-1)   22 Arizona (7-3)
23 Notre Dame (6-5)   23 NC State (8-3)
24 NC State (8-3)   24 Iowa (7-4)
25 USC (7-4)   25 USC (7-4)

 

The first, and still most obvious is that I'm not as high as my computer on Boise State. I think they'll get their first true test this year against Nevada. I'm not as high on Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, or Oklahoma. I'm also higher on Oregon, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Michigan State.

 

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Boise State (4.51) vs. Fresno State (0.442) W 51-0 6.043
Stanford (3.126) @ California (0.111) W 48-14 4.738
Oklahoma (2.189) @ Baylor (0.371) W 53-24 4.503
Oregon State (0.176) vs. USC (0.741) W 36-7 4.467
Virginia Tech (2.359) @ Miami (FL) (1.105) W 31-17 4.130

 

Boise State's 51-0 smack down was by far the best win of the week. It was by far their most impressive win of the year. In addition, they get some more resume help by having OOC opponents Oregon State and Virginia Tech get two of the top 5 five wins.

Stanford also lit up the California Golden Bears. What a difference a team can look like within a week.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Miami (OH) (-0.018) @ Akron (-3.151) W 19-14 -1.226
UAB (-0.863) vs. Memphis (-3.178) W 31-15 -0.627
Middle Tennessee (-0.546) @ Western Kentucky (-1.844) W 27-26 -0.415
Eastern Michigan (-2.465) @ Buffalo (-2.1) W 21-17 -0.232
Michigan State (1.933) vs. Purdue (-1.202) W 35-31 -0.201

 

Once again, I removed the teams that played a late year FCS opponent. Instead, I want to call them out individually. Florida, Texas Tech, and Alabama, you receive the dishonorary (sic) award of "There is Shame in Wining". For some reason, I just find it more pathetic to schedule late season FCS opponents. It is distasteful to me. If you're going to do it, do it early in the season, and make your depth matter for the end of the year conference/rival opponents.

Miami of Ohio @ Akron - pathetic. I guess.

 

No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Iowa (1.647) vs. Ohio State (3.164) L 17-20 1.277
Purdue (-1.202) @ Michigan State (1.933) L 31-35 0.657
Ole Miss (-0.742) @ LSU (2.078) L 36-43 0.521
Nebraska (2.222) @ Texas A&M (1.477) L 6-9 0.489
UTEP (0.117) @ Tulsa (1.506) L 28-31 -0.019

 

While I'm sure it is a painful loss for the Hawkeyes, a 3 point loss to Ohio State is respectable, and enough to grant a net win. Purdue also gets a respectable nod for their effort against MSU.

One I was surprised about seeing here was Nebraska's loss to Texas A&M, but Texas A&M has silently moved up in the polls.

 

Face Palm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Colorado State (-2.107) @ Wyoming (-1.506) L 0-44 -5.844
East Carolina (-0.331) @ Rice (-1.657) L 38-62 -4.691
Buffalo (-2.1) vs. Eastern Michigan (-2.465) L 17-21 -4.355
Utah State (-1.262) vs. Idaho (-0.191) L 6-28 -4.197
Kent State (-0.658) @ Western Michigan (0.313) L 3-38 -4.036

 

Now these are bad losses. Someone forget to tell Colorado State that Wyoming lost to New Mexico. This is one of the worst non-FCS game losses of the year. 

 

Conference Rankings

Here is how the conferences stack up. Sorted by the highest to lowest VoW Avg.

Rank Conference Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 SEC - (83-49) 0.956 -0.138 0.688
2 Big 12 - (82-52) 0.677 -0.046 0.550
3 Pac-10 - (58-46) 0.550 0.037 0.546
4 Independent - (20-13) 0.780 -0.278 0.318
5 Big Ten - (74-47) 0.693 -0.231 0.310
6 ACC - (71-59) 0.375 -0.328 -0.114
7 Big East - (45-37) 0.561 -0.574 -0.225
8 MWC - (50-52) -0.033 -0.164 -0.299
9 WAC - (50-46) 0.220 -0.455 -0.416
10 C-USA - (63-70) -0.265 -0.432 -0.875
11 MAC - (61-83) -0.452 -0.733 -1.447
12 Sun Belt - (33-62) -0.877 -0.559 -1.622

 

The Big 12 and the Pac-10 swap for the 3rd time of the year, though their margin is very close. The Big 12 actually made large strides this week, and improved their conferences overall VoW. While staying in the top conference, it was the scheduling of multiple FCS teams that caused the SEC to take quite a hit on their VoW average. Their negative Opp VAvg nearly doubled. The small team category of the Independents also overtook the Big Ten, in their ranking after the Big Ten failed to move up much. The biggest mover though goes to the MWC. They improved their ranking by .104 - a rather substantial margin for an entire conference. That still is not enough to jump the Big East, but it is close.

 

Pac-10 Conference Standings

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

Rank Conference Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 Oregon - (10-0) 3.991 -1.105 2.767
2 Stanford - (10-1) 3.126 -0.648 2.421
3 USC - (7-4) 0.741 0.452 1.069
4 Arizona - (7-3) 1.597 -0.612 1.066
5 Oregon State - (5-5) 0.176 0.714 0.874
6 California - (5-6) 0.111 0.152 0.156
7 Washington - (4-6) -1.460 1.223 -0.344
8 Arizona State - (4-6) 0.458 -0.817 -0.359
9 UCLA - (4-6) -0.968 0.592 -0.364
10 Washington State - (2-9) -2.276 0.414 -1.830

 

Shockingly, the top half of the conference stays the same, but Washington swaps with UCLA after getting wiped around. There is a giant chasm between the top half, and the bottom half in regards to the VoW Avg. The difference between Oregon State and California is .718. Last week the difference was .154.

We are left with two great teams, three okay teams, one "eh" team, three bad teams, and one awful team.

In seeking for bowl eligibility, Oregon State made a giant leap to "oh... maybe!", though they still have the top two teams left in the conference. They need just one win to become bowl eligible.

California has one chance left for making a bowl game, and that is against Washington. They should be able to make it, but they could still come up short.

Washington is still in the hunt, and they have California and WSU left. I would give them a chance to beat either team, but they could also end up losing either team. So... who the hell really knows. My gut tells me they drop to California.

UCLA has two more games left, and they need to win both of those games, and they are Arizona State and USC. Being that both Arizona State and USC are not bowl eligible, it would help the Pac-10 bowl tie-ins if they won both, as they wouldn't knock anyone out of a bowl game. If they lose both... I hear Colorado may be looking for a new coach. Rick might do better if he leaves Norm "Lets run the squirt gun offense" Chow behind this time.

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

This is the order of the toughest schedules, in regards to their opponent's VAvg.

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
1 Washington - (4-6) Pac-10 1.223
2 Notre Dame - (6-5) Independent 1.010
3 Oregon State - (5-5) Pac-10 0.714
4 UNLV - (2-9) MWC 0.702
5 UCLA - (4-6) Pac-10 0.592
6 Vanderbilt - (2-9) SEC 0.558
7 USC - (7-4) Pac-10 0.452
8 Washington State - (2-9) Pac-10 0.414
9 Oklahoma - (9-2) Big 12 0.387
10 Marshall - (4-7) C-USA 0.347

 

Same story as last week, only instead of East Carolina and Florida, we have UNLV and Oklahoma. It's still as Pac-10 heavy as it can be. 

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

This is the order of the easiest schedules, in regards to their opponent's VAvg.

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
120 Ohio - (8-3) MAC -1.910
119 Middle Tennessee - (4-6) Sun Belt -1.894
118 Ball State - (4-8) MAC -1.721
117 Nevada - (10-1) WAC -1.518
116 UTEP - (6-6) C-USA -1.484
115 Syracuse - (7-4) Big East -1.453
114 Northern Illinois - (9-2) MAC -1.291
113 Virginia - (4-7) ACC -1.286
112 Southern Miss - (8-3) C-USA -1.217
111 Oregon - (10-0) Pac-10 -1.105

 

Ah... it's like the old times seeing Oregon back on the list. Apparently BYE was a soft opponent - but really it's just because Fresno State actually played somebody. Ohio also overtakes the worst schedule of the year after fighting the Red Blobs of Western Kentucky.

 

Games to Look Forward to Watching

These are this week's matchups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Team VAvg Diff Team VAvg Avg
Alabama (2.643) vs. Auburn (2.623) 0.020 2.633
Oklahoma State (2.755) vs. Oklahoma (2.189) 0.566 2.472
Arkansas (2.078) vs. LSU (2.078) 0.000 2.078
Tulsa (1.506) vs. Southern Miss (1.483) 0.023 1.494
Florida State (1.782) vs. Florida (1.158) 0.624 1.470

 

I love it when rivalries start stacking up. This week should have amazing match ups. The difference between Alabama and Auburn is extremely tiny - but not nearly as small as the difference of Arkansas and LSU. You're reading that right, the VAvg Difference between Arkansas and LSU is 0.000. Technically, it is 0.00000007, in favor of Arkansas.

We get to see how good the Oklahoma schools really are. That could actually be an exciting, or headline worthy game. And of course, Florida State vs. Florida - a stories rivalry, both with something to prove as they struggle this year.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Team VAvg Diff Team VAvg Avg
TCU (3.988) @ New Mexico (-3.168) 7.155 0.410
UCF (1.958) @ Memphis (-3.178) 5.135 -0.610
Northern Illinois (2.307) @ Eastern Michigan (-2.465) 4.773 -0.079
Hawaii (1.617) @ New Mexico State (-2.742) 4.359 -0.563
Missouri (2.222) vs. Kansas (-2.041) 4.263 0.090

 

And after all that, we get... TCU vs. New Mexico? Missouri vs. Kansas? Zzzzzzzz.

 

 

About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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