FanPost

SHUFELT Computer Poll; Week 10

Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 10

RankTeamRecordVoW AvgChangeDeltaLW Rank
1 Boise State (8-0) 3.550 0.171 ↔ 0 1
2 TCU (10-0) 3.173 0.424 ↔ 0 2
3 Oregon (9-0) 2.768 0.160 ↑ 2 5
4 Ohio State (8-1) 2.745 0.032 ↔ 0 4
5 Oklahoma State (8-1) 2.519 0.423 ↑ 5 10
6 Alabama (7-2) 2.387 -0.005 ↔ 0 6
7 Auburn (10-0) 2.193 -0.531 ↓ 4 3
8 Stanford (8-1) 2.189 0.311 ↑ 3 11
9 Utah (8-1) 1.942 -0.318 ↓ 1 8
10 Oklahoma (7-2) 1.870 -0.517 ↓ 3 7
11 Iowa (7-2) 1.753 -0.014 ↑ 2 13
12 Missouri (7-2) 1.740 -0.463 ↓ 3 9
13 Florida (6-3) 1.715 0.249 ↑ 3 16
14 Nebraska (8-1) 1.680 -0.144 ↓ 2 12
15 LSU (8-1) 1.555 0.293 ↑ 4 19
16 Arkansas (7-2) 1.403 0.381 ↑ 10 26
17 Arizona (7-2) 1.361 -0.264 ↓ 2 15
18 Michigan State (9-1) 1.340 -0.054 ↓ 1 17
19 Oregon State (4-4) 1.340 -0.345 ↓ 5 14
20 Virginia Tech (7-2) 1.267 0.040 ↔ 0 20
21 USC (6-3) 1.203 -0.111 ↓ 3 18
22 Nevada (8-1) 1.100 0.427 ↑ 10 32
23 Wisconsin (8-1) 1.087 0.109 ↑ 5 28
24 Texas A&M (6-3) 0.994 0.502 ↑ 10 34
25 Mississippi State (7-2) 0.979 -0.061 ↔ 0 25
Dropped: Hawaii, Florida State, NC State, South Carolina

 

So this week's shakers and movers are Nevada, TCU, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Auburn and Texas A&M, all rising or falling over .400 on their VoW Average.

While the top 2 remains the same, the gap between the two became significantly smaller.

As Auburn played Chattanooga, their resume takes a hit, and they fall a significant amount. Meanwhile, Oregon continues its crawl towards the top. Though, I don't suspect them to move up in the rankings this week, unless it is complete and total domination.

Here's a big oddity: #18 Michigan State (9-1), #19 Oregon State (4-4). I suppose that's how unimpressive Michigan State's wins have been against my formula.

On to the Extra Curriculars!

Extra Curriculars

Machine vs. Man

This is a poll vs. poll comparison. The poll on the right is how I personally would vote as a human voter. The poll on the left is my computer poll.

ComputerTeamRecord JShufeltTeamRecord
1 Boise State (8-0)   1 Oregon (9-0)
2 TCU (10-0)   2 Auburn (10-0)
3 Oregon (9-0)   3 TCU (10-0)
4 Ohio State (8-1)   4 Oklahoma State (8-1)
5 Oklahoma State (8-1)   5 Stanford (8-1)
6 Alabama (7-2)   6 Nebraska (8-1)
7 Auburn (10-0)   7 LSU (8-1)
8 Stanford (8-1)   8 Boise State (8-0)
9 Utah (8-1)   9 Wisconsin (8-1)
10 Oklahoma (7-2)   10 Alabama (7-2)
11 Iowa (7-2)   11 Ohio State (8-1)
12 Missouri (7-2)   12 Iowa (7-2)
13 Florida (6-3)   13 Michigan State (9-1)
14 Nebraska (8-1)   14 Oklahoma (7-2)
15 LSU (8-1)   15 Utah (8-1)
16 Arkansas (7-2)   16 Missouri (7-2)
17 Arizona (7-2)   17 Arizona (7-2)
18 Michigan State (9-1)   18 Arkansas (7-2)
19 Oregon State (4-4)   19 Florida (6-3)
20 Virginia Tech (7-2)   20 Nevada (8-1)
21 USC (6-3)   21 USC (6-3)
22 Nevada (8-1)   22 Mississippi State (7-2)
23 Wisconsin (8-1)   23 Penn State (6-3)
24 Texas A&M (6-3)   24 Temple (8-2)
25 Mississippi State (7-2)   25 Virginia Tech (7-2)

 

So, I'm still not high on Boise State. I probably am lower on them than nearly everyone in the country, including well known Boise State hater Mark May. Why? It isn't so much I don't think they are a bad team (Eighth in the country is still freaking awesome), but in my mind, I can't see them beating any team I have in front of them. I also have Ohio State, Utah, Oklahoma, and Florida, notably lower than my computer polls.

On the other side of the coin, I am high on Stanford and Nebraska, Wisconsin, Auburn, LSU, Michigan State, Penn State and Temple.

 

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
TCU (4.263) @ Utah (2.780) W 47-7 7.234
Boise State (4.257) vs. Hawaii (1.395) W 42-7 4.979
Navy (1.198) @ East Carolina (-0.377) W 76-35 4.928
Oklahoma State (2.470) @ Baylor (1.171) W 55-28 4.893
Stanford (3.079) vs. Arizona (1.978) W 42-17 4.682

 

Who ever expected the beat down TCU gave to Utah, raise your hand. You liar. You didn't expect it. I didn't expect that. Nobody expected it. In a week with very respectable wins from Boise State, Navy, Oklahoma State, and Stanford, TCU runs away with this award. While Boise State will point to beating Virginia Tech and Oregon State this year, TCU will just point to the smoldering ruins of Rice-Eccles Stadium, and then say in a Marlon Brando-esque voice "This is what you get when you don't show the proper respect." as they lightly slap your face when they walk away.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Ball State (-1.158) vs. Akron (-3.258) W 37-30 -1.876
Utah State (-1.335) vs. New Mexico State (-2.442) W 27-22 -1.174
New Mexico (-3.095) vs. Wyoming (-2.042) W 34-31 -0.740
Florida Atlantic (-0.886) @ Western Kentucky (-2.016) W 17-16 -0.546
California (0.847) @ Washington State (-2.841) W 20-13 -0.261

 

New Mexico gets a win! For two years in a row, they beat Wyoming. Unfortunately, Wyoming is clearly a bad win. This is hardly an upset, though - it technically is still an upset. 2nd worst team in the country, Ball State, gets by a 1 TD win over the 1st worst team in the country, Akron. Every team listed here may have won, but they also ended up with a Net Loss.

Special note: This last week, there were too many FCS teams scheduled, that I just tossed them out this week. But the SEC stacked up on FCS opponents, and when I think about it, it actually kind of pisses me off. So I will say, Kentucky, Auburn, and Georgia - you disturbed me this week. Your the reason why I penalize FCS teams so heavily. 

 

No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Opp VAvg)ScoreVoW
Iowa State (-0.383) vs. Nebraska (2.543) L 30-31 0.608
Alabama (2.391) @ LSU (1.709) L 21-24 0.577
Arizona State (0.721) vs. USC (1.092) L 33-34 0.518
Georgia Tech (0.580) vs. Virginia Tech (2.170) L 21-28 0.324
Indiana (-0.318) @ Iowa (2.339) L 13-18 0.169

 

Iowa State is a pretty bad team, but they put up a good fight against Nebraska. In fact every team on this list walked away with a "Net Win". The only real upset in this list would be Alabama losing to LSU.

 

Face Palm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Opp VAvg)ScoreVoW
Memphis (-4.811) vs. Tennessee (-0.853) L 14-50 -5.472
UNLV (-4.516) @ BYU (-0.756) L 7-55 -4.911
East Carolina (-5.076) vs. Navy (1.198) L 35-76 -4.453
UAB (-3.091) vs. Marshall (-1.527) L 17-31 -4.164
Wyoming (-0.977) @ New Mexico (-3.095) L 31-34 -3.934

 

Wow, Memphis got their butt whipped by Tennessee. There a few bushwhackings though. I believe Navy has set the record for the most points scored this year with their 76-35 win.

Out of all the games on this list, there was only one real upset, and that was, once again, New Mexico over Wyoming.

 

Conference Rankings

Here is how the conferences stack up. Sorted by the highest to lowest VoW Avg.

RankConferenceRecordPctTeamsVoW Avg
1 SEC (70-41) 0.631 12 0.665
2 Pac-10 (51-39) 0.567 10 0.591
3 Big 12 (69-41) 0.627 12 0.541
4 Big Ten (64-37) 0.634 11 0.264
5 Independent (15-12) 0.556 3 -0.080
6 ACC (60-48) 0.556 12 -0.208
7 MWC (42-43) 0.494 9 -0.320
8 Big East (37-29) 0.561 8 -0.352
9 WAC (42-38) 0.525 9 -0.569
10 C-USA (52-58) 0.473 12 -0.940
11 MAC (51-71) 0.418 13 -1.486
12 Sun Belt (27-50) 0.351 9 -1.540

 

While the SEC maintained their top position, their slew of FCS games took a big hit in their lead. The Pac-10 also slides, but it is by a very small margin. Navy's win helps the Independents, as they gained the most ground from where they were. The Mountain West jumps up a bit, and moves the Big East further down the totem pole, but they are still very similar in regards to conference performance.

In summery, there are 3 good conferences, 1 okay conference, a handful of bad ones, and a couple REALLY awful conferences.

 

Pac-10 Conference Standings

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

RankTeamRecordTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Oregon (9-0) 4.246 -1.352 2.768
2 Stanford (8-1) 3.079 -0.871 2.189
3 Arizona (7-2) 1.978 -0.675 1.361
4 Oregon State (4-4) 0.205 1.294 1.340
5 USC (6-3) 1.092 0.355 1.203
6 California (5-4) 0.847 -0.604 0.216
7 UCLA (4-5) -0.795 1.016 0.096
8 Washington (3-6) -1.903 1.572 -0.487
9 Arizona State (4-5) 0.721 -1.257 -0.514
10 Washington State (1-9) -2.841 0.599 -2.260

 

Arizona jumps Oregon State, because they were gettin' it dun, and OSU was... not.

Want to know how screwy this year could be? Imagine this scenario; Oregon goes to the MNC. Stanford squeaks into a different BCS game. 3rd place Arizona goes to the Alamo Bowl... and that's all the bowl eligible teams left in the Pac-10. Yeah. It could end up that the Pac-10 only has THREE bowl games, and only achieve One tie-in, which is also the new-to-the-Pac, Alamo Bowl game. 

The schools "on the edge" of bowl eligibility, have pretty difficult schedules ahead.

Oregon State's remaining schedule: WSU, USC, Stanford, Oregon. They could only end up with 1 more win.

California: Oregon, Stanford, Washington. They could very well be favored against Washington, and it IS at home... but with how hot and cold the Golden Bears have been, them dropping the game vs. the Huskies isn't unthinkable.

UCLA: Washington, Arizona State, USC. They need two wins to become bowl eligible. So even if they beat Washington, they still have a tough match with playing @ Sun Devil Stadium. 

Arizona State: Stanford, UCLA, Arizona. They also need two wins to become bowl eligible. Their best bet for a win is when they host UCLA.

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
1 Washington (3-6) Pac-10 -0.487
2 Oregon State (4-4) Pac-10 1.340
3 UCLA (4-5) Pac-10 0.096
4 UNLV (1-8) MWC -2.277
5 Notre Dame (4-5) Independent 0.347
6 Marshall (3-6) C-USA -1.040
7 Rice (2-7) C-USA -1.975
8 Washington State (1-9) Pac-10 -2.260
9 East Carolina (5-4) C-USA -0.076
10 Colorado (3-6) Big 12 -0.600

 

As expected, Washington overtakes the "toughest schedule" spot. Also welcome the 4th Pac-10 team into the top 10 toughest schedule. East Carolina is the only team above .500, despite getting sunked by Navy. (See what I did there?)

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

Here are the rankings of the Pac-10 teams, in regards to their VoW Avg.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
120 UTEP (6-4) C-USA -2.171
119 Ball State (3-7) MAC -2.035
118 Southern Miss (6-3) C-USA -1.896
117 Middle Tennessee (3-5) Sun Belt -1.867
116 Syracuse (6-3) Big East -1.815
115 Fresno State (6-2) WAC -1.779
114 San Diego State (7-2) MWC -1.773
113 Ohio (7-3) MAC -1.750
112 Nevada (8-1) WAC -1.646
111 Tulsa (6-3) C-USA -1.579

 

Syracuse's schedule continues to improve, but they still have a ways to go. Surprisingly, there are a few sub.500 teams listed here. 

 

Games to Look Forward to Watching

These are this week's matchups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg)Average VAvg
Alabama (2.174) vs. Mississippi State (1.486) 1.830
UCF (1.906) vs. Southern Miss (1.214) 1.560
Temple (1.697) vs. Ohio (1.372) 1.535
Arizona (1.798) vs. USC (1.094) 1.446
Missouri (1.822) vs. Kansas State (0.86) 1.341

 

Alabama gets a chance of redemption, and Miss State gets a chance to "put up or shut up," and justify the top 25 votes.

This is a fairly lackadaisic week, as none of these games would have been in the top 4 from last week. Oddly enough, UCF is listed for the second week in a row.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts.

Favored Team (Team VAvg) vs. Underdog Team (Team VAvg)VAvg Diff
Boise State (3.892) @ Idaho (-0.055) 3.947
Nebraska (2.282) vs. Kansas (-1.408) 3.690
Air Force (0.775) vs. New Mexico (-2.685) 3.460
Oregon (3.927) @ California (0.808) 3.118
NC State (1.139) vs. Wake Forest (-1.58) 2.719

 

Unofficially, this is the "Boise State" award.  But Oregon also makes yet another appearance.  Unfortunately, there are a few games like this today. Luckily, no FCS teams are scheduled, but this should be a pretty upset-less week.

 

About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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