One thing Oregon needs to NOT do if they want to win Saturday.

by qrsouther on Sep 10, 2010 11:56 PM PDT

Even with a 13.5 point spread in our favor tomorrow, I'm awfully nervous for this game. The closer the game's gotten, the more nervous I've been.

In spite of a 72-point demolition of New Mexico in which they rolled up 720 yards of total offense and could have scored 130 points if they really wanted to, I felt strangely insecure about the week that would follow it.

Make no mistake about the New Mexico game. New Mexico was a bad football team. They were arguably the most inept, disorganized, and slowest teams I've ever seen play on a football field. It wasn't so much that they were putting in a solid effort and Oregon was just too good to let them even earn a yard -- it was that they were just so incredibly off-kilter that they were literally one step above handing the ball off to Brandon Bair.

The other thing that New Mexico didn't offer was a real mid-range test for our team. This game was, for all intents and purposes, a glorified scrimmage. And, while it's better than nothing and opening the season blindfiring at Tennessee, it's not as satisfying and worthwhile as going against a Houston or a Fresno State or a Michigan State. One could only hope.

The last time we went out on the road early in the year for a big non-conference game was last year at Boise State. We all know how that ended. "That was the first game of the year and Boise State was actually good", you say. Fine.

The year before that we went on the road after two very easy wins against the Huskies (who would go on to finish 0-12), and Utah State (who were remarkably comparable to the New Mexico team we just faced, if not just a bit better.) We went out to Purdue the next week and found ourselves down 20-6 at halftime, playing a flat and slow game against a team that was not expected to even touch us.

We ended up winning that game on the feet (or wings) of Jairus Byrd and a few heroics by LeGarrette Blount. "That was a game where we had two mediocre quarterbacks at the helm! Darron Thomas is better than them!" He may be; we don't know yet. He hasn't played in a big road game yet, let alone in Neyland. Tomorrow is a massive litmus test for him.

Obviously, along with everyone else, I have all the trust in the world in our stellar coaching staff to know what they're doing out there. But, for fandom's sake, I'm writing this post anyway. I've identified one thing that I think could tip the game to Tennessee awfully quickly and shock the town if we let happen...

Don't be stubborn. I'm looking at the Oregon coaches on this one. We all love Chip Kelly's playcalling when it works. It's also very logical. In his short history at UO since becoming OC in 2007, Chip Kelly has chosen -- especially in big games where the whole playbook is needed -- to start out passing, and passing a lot. Often pass plays have consumed most of the first quarter and into the second quarter. It works, usually, too. Oregon is known for its running game, but in every case Oregon has chosen to pass to set up the run. They stretch the field with the pass and get the defense expecting any of many things.

When it doesn't work, though, the games get bad. In the Holiday Bowl in '08 Kelly's entire first half consisted of pass after pass with few runs. Masoli was particularly inaccurate to start out that game, and the offense suffered. We found ourselves behind 17-7 at the half and the game thread was full of "WHERE IS THE SPREAD OFFENSE?" Nobody knew what was going on. At Boise State '09, the same stubbornness of playcalling plagued us again. The coaches were so set on breaking out the passing game in spite of the clearly inaccurate Masoli that there were hardly any called runs until the 3rd quarter. The absolute discord in that game came down to the inability to pass, in short. But it wasn't aided at all by hammering that square peg.

Turn that page in the playbook, no matter how bad you want not to. If Thomas proves rattled, inaccurate, mistimed, or turnover-prone early on in this game, the coaches need to throw their young quarterback a bone. I'm sure they know this. I know it generally doesn't become the LaMichael show until the 2nd or 3rd, but we need to get him the ball. There's been a lot of build up for him coming into this game and everyone says he's faster and stronger this year than he was before. Let's use it.

The same goes for Barner. We have to build on his performance last week. We have to get them both involved. The Tennessee coaches have already gone on record as being very afraid of Barner and James' dual presence in the backfield. The game plan better call for some splitback sets if they really feel afraid of it.

The Oregon offense's biggest enemy is itself when for one reason or another the playmakers don't get the ball. We can't afford to play set-up ball for a whole half if Tennessee jumps out early. Break out as much of the book as you can as quickly as possible.

Poll

How confident are you coming into this game?

Very confident

27 votes

Cautiously optimistic

45 votes

Slightly worried

12 votes

Very nervous

8 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

Tweet Comment 16 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Scripted Plays

Good write-up, Quinn. A lot of what you say echo’s my thoughts. I found myself counting offensive plays last year when things started slowly, wondering how long it was going to take the team to get the magic number of 25 plays under their belt before they started running an adaptive playbook. I found the sooner we got those out of the way, the easier I felt about the rest of the game.

I understand the concept of starting with the passing game. You’re trying to back the defense off, tire them out running sideline to sideline, and get the passer into a Rhythm. But when those passes are falling incomplete you’re killing drives and field position early. I finally got to watch the New Mexico game (Thanks to you and the family for the link) and while Darron can put some beautiful passes in there, he’s also going to be erratic in the first part of his career until it all slows down for him. If he’s not hitting is targets early you’ve got to get the ball into your playmakers hands by some other means.

The 2007 Sun Bowl was a great example of this. As I remember it, (which may not be super well, since it was late afternoon on New Years Eve) the first drive involved some fly sweeps, basic hand offs, and screen passes. Jonathan Stewart was the best player on the field that day, and they let him take it to the opposing defense early, which opened up the passing game for Roper later on with the designed roll outs.

The one difference from the games you’ve mentioned and tomorrow’s game is the Duck Defense. I have all the faith in the top 15 (or so) players on the defensive side of the ball. It’s the area of the game that most stacks up in Oregon’s favor. They’re playing an inexperienced offense, which will probably be without the two biggest passing targets. Also the crowd isn’t as much of a factor for your defense as it is for your offense. If a couple drives stall early on, I don’t think that means we’re immediately looking at a situation where the Ducks are playing from behind.

That being said, while it wasn’t Chip’s MO last year, I think that if the Ducks can score first, the game becomes immediately easier. The crowd’s out of it, and the Vols have to become less reliant on the stronger part of their offense, the power running side. So if the passing game isn’t there, I think you let your offensive line and speed demon running backs take over and put some points on the board like we know they can.

So that basically turned into a long way to say I agree with you. But I also have no reason to believe the coaching staff isn’t thinking the same thing. If the passes aren’t there for Darron early, you don’t want to put the team in a position where you need to pass to play catch up. I’m looking forward to being able to watch the game live tomorrow morning to see how it plays out.

by AcadianTraverse on Sep 11, 2010 4:31 AM PDT reply actions

Agreed. And MOV is going to be very influential, not just for the usual reasons

Getting ahead is good, putting them in a hole early so they feel pressure to throw.

But what I’m excited about is that next week the Vols play Florida. You know there’s going to be a lot of attention paid to what the Vols did against the Ducks, and as a result, it becomes a good comparison (by the obvious transitive property of football game results ;)) of Oregon vs Florida. Lacking direct match-ups between Pac10 and SEC powers, their performances against common opponents (especially back-to-back weeks) remains the only/best/least-worst barometer of where we stand in college football landscape.

If we beat Tennessee 48-10, and Florida goes 17-14, that will keep me warm on cold winter nights in the off season…never mind what else happens in the year.

great-duck-movie

by gamedaytribe on Sep 11, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Interesting thoughts, Quinn.

I think you’ve hit on something that has frustrated fans in several recent big games where the offense didn’t immediately catch fire. I prefer to see diversity in the play calling early on. The earlier Oregon can figure out what the defense is taking away – UNM didn’t want DT running – the more quickly Helfrich can start exploiting what the defense is giving. I have to admit, however, the most methodical way to determine where opportunities lie is to run through a roughly scripted set of “tests” for the defense. It can be frustrating, which is compounded by the expectations we all share for Oregon’s explosive offense.

My primary concern is turnovers. First, those can product immediate points for the opponent. Second, if they don’t score there is a sudden shift in positive energy to the other sideline. Third, turnovers will get that big crowd all charged up and if they stay engaged, that could be disruptive. Big game jitters, lots of noise, the nature of Oregon’s toss-the-ball-around offense and some good ’ol liquid sunshine have me a little nervous.

I’d enjoy a blowout. I’ve predicted a nationally televised statement by Oregon’s defense in a 31-6 Ducks win. But this is one of those games where you just want to leave Knoxville with a win, pretty or not.

I don't deal in hyperbole.

by JConant on Sep 11, 2010 9:45 AM PDT reply actions