FanPost

Lunch Pail U

As we all know, our orange clad rivals love to tout themselves as Lunch Pail U... as the team that find the recruiting gems in the rough and turns three star recruits in to five star performers.  I gotta admit that subjectively, it seems to be pretty true, but my subjective brain seems to also remember a lot of Ducks outperforming expectations as well.

Not satisfied with the subjectivity, I decided to dig up a ton of data on recruiting rankings vs final rankings and compare it all together to find an objective answer to the question;  Who is "Lunch Pail U"?.  I initially set out just to compare the Ducks and Beavers, but decided if I'm gonna do it, I might as well do it right and include all of D1.

Methodology:

My recruiting rankings are the rankings off of Scout.com.  I chose Scout rather than Rivals because Rivals only shows the top 50 while Scout shows all of D1.  For my final rankings, I used Sagarin rankings.  The obvious reason is because it ranks all D1 teams, but having a computer based ranking also stays in line with my objectivity goal.  I had to cut three current D1 teams (FIU, FAU, West Kentucky) because they have not been D1 teams for the whole length of my data.

DISCLAIMER: Obviously, the results are not absolute.  Different ranking services will result in different results so the difference between a few positions in the final Lunch Pail U rankings is well within margin of error, but it should give a pretty good general idea.

I cut and paste the Scout recruiting ranking from 2002 through 2010 in to a spreadsheet (shout out to www.OpenOffice.org).  I then made an "expected final rankings" prediction for each school based on the recruiting ranking from the previous five years.  To account for older years having more of an affect on the current team, each year was weighted as follows: 5th year = 25%, 4th year = 35%, 3rd year = 20%, 2nd year = 12%, 1st year = 8%.

These expected rankings were then compared to the final Sagarin rankings for each year.  The Sagarin ranking was subtracted from the expected ranking.  Positive numbers reflected outperforming the expected ranking while negative numbers reflected under-performing the expected ranking.

The need for five years of recruit ranking history means that I only have expected rankings for 2006-2010, and obviously the final 2010 Sagarin rankings won't be available until next January.  Consider this the 2006-2009 Lunch Pail U rankings... the recent history Lunch Pail U rankings.  Anyway, on to the results!

 

Results:

 

 



Scout Recruit Rankings Expected Ranking Sagarin Ranking


School 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E06 E07 E08 E09 E10 S06 S07 S08 S09 Diff Diff/Yr
1 Navy 97.5 111 107 117 93 118 113 85 84 106.11 109.2 109.5 105.76 104.07 47 69 49 37 228.57 57.14
2 Boise State 75 73 72 73 78 57 64 60 97 73.7 71.97 71.11 69.43 67.21 6 47 12 5 216.21 54.05
3 Air Force 112 90 95 99 116.5 104 78 118 80 99.7 97.85 100.42 105.13 101.69 73 48 54 34 194.1 48.52
4 TCU 61 66 70 63 73 73 114 54 63 65.75 68.2 72.03 73.9 78.12 26 49 7 4 193.88 48.47
5 Cincinnati 95 84 75 70 70 80 51 53 61 82.15 76.05 70.93 68.36 66.94 43 19 34 8 193.49 48.37
6 Utah 84 95 68 71 60 66 65 55 50 81.17 74.23 66.97 64.15 61.7 46 34 5 24 177.52 44.38
7 BYU 46 59 55 53 46 42 57 40 22 53.19 53.48 51.1 47.79 44.16 13 17 32 15 128.56 32.14
8 Central Michigan 103 85 90 92.5 99 117 79 68 100 92.52 92.49 95.04 96.1 97.66 55 73 86 41 121.14 30.29
9 South Florida 103 108 43 54 56.5 45 46 25 52 83.15 63.23 50.03 49.8 46.24 31 20 42 38 115.21 28.8
10 Nevada 79.5 89 102 106 82 105 109.5 108 95 90.71 97.39 100.36 97.98 99.71 56 86 66 66 112.44 28.11
11 Hawaii 74 82.5 82.5 83 102 85 92 62 86.5 82 85.14 87.64 89.45 88.01 23 35 81 95 110.22 27.56
12 Connecticut 103 82.5 79 59 66 53 70 76 69 82.79 72.24 65.56 62.93 63.69 68 39 40 28 108.51 27.13
13 West Virginia 33 57 53 33 56.5 18 36 22 30 47.28 47.62 41.14 37.71 32.67 10 3 26 31 103.75 25.94
14 Wake Forest 58 42 61 60 65 63 67 56 62 53.8 56.69 62.17 62.87 63.38 27 28 25 54 101.53 25.38
15 Oregon State 49 56 34 51.5 41 40 61 48 67 48.11 44.32 44.41 46.39 47.57 20 16 13 33 101.22 25.31
16 Rutgers 41 69 45 67 63 28 42 29 48 56.48 56.2 54.02 51.76 41.27 12 38 37 40 91.46 22.87
17 Tulsa 72 109 77 82 83 92 86 73 91 88.03 87.92 82.47 84.11 86.19 62 63 41 88 88.53 22.13
18 Kansas 78 70 56 57 47 78 49 50 65 65.8 60.38 56.63 56.18 60.05 61 2 31 58 86.99 21.75
19 East Carolina 81 81 73 84 64 72 93 86 110.5 78.4 76.04 76.53 75.84 78.96 64 62 52 49 79.81 19.95
20 Kentucky 70 54 52 62 34 58 53 27 46 56.96 52.82 52.7 47.52 46.32 28 18 47 46 71 17.75
21 New Mexico 103 80 96 89 111.5 91 108 87.5 78 92.55 92.06 97.01 99.44 98.07 77 57 75 108 64.06 16.01
22 Wyoming 103 103 85 94.5 94.5 109 106 95 102 97.7 94.46 94.79 98.82 102.54 67 76 102 77 63.77 15.94
23 Boston College 55 27 42 58 44 50 22 81 43 42.08 42.33 47.36 49.02 46.06 25 23 28 43 61.79 15.45
24 Fresno State 52 64 110 92.5 96 68 60 70 64 76.18 89.96 92.04 83.13 73.32 89 59 76 56 61.3 15.33
25 Western Michigan 93 91 90 104.5 98 106 101 91 83 93.48 95.39 99.48 101.03 99.36 66 87 73 103 60.37 15.09
26 Buffalo 112 92 114.5 102.5 114 115 115 110 109 104.52 106.46 110.3 111.13 113.67 113 93 71 97 58.4 14.6
27 Oregon 31 44 15 30 52 9 23 26 13 33.91 29.21 27.57 32.34 24.91 35 8 11 11 58.03 14.51
28 Missouri 57 52 36 37 58 39 31 38 27.5 48.73 43.08 40.71 44.11 41.11 42 6 19 52 57.63 14.41
29 Ball State 86 105 104.5 109 81 88 102 101 89 98.71 101.39 99.2 93.52 90.69 88 74 61 113 56.81 14.2
30 ULM 112 116.5 112.5 110.5 109 112 91 82 113 113.26 112.64 109.32 105.66 103.53 101 83 108 98 50.87 12.72
31 Rice 112 74 114.5 113 94.5 90 98.5 74 104 97.92 99.72 105.76 97.07 92.03 81 112 46 112 49.46 12.36
32 Troy 112 72 74 68 89 64.5 76 71 86.5 83.28 73.34 73.92 75.85 75.47 75 52 65 65 49.39 12.35
33 San Jose State 71 88 111 104.5 91.5 102 120 92.5 75.5 90.61 100.89 104.47 100.35 99.72 58 90 92 110 46.32 11.58
34 Virginia Tech 45 21 26 18 31 25 20 41 37 28.44 23.67 23.6 26.03 28.38 22 9 18 7 45.74 11.44
35 Northern Illinois 93 106 99 97.5 104 114 118 105.5 103 100.17 102.25 102.8 106.18 110.4 79 111 89 87 45.39 11.35
36 Houston 43 41 84 80 69 61.5 77 58 55 57.02 68.85 76.34 70.33 65.54 53 75 50 51 43.54 10.89
37 Arkansas State 112 107 104.5 115 116.5 82 104 105.5 106 109.47 106.87 107.84 106.85 99.77 99 96 94 105 37.02 9.25
38 Ohio 97.5 87 88 91 103 110 105 96 118 91.59 91.91 96.05 101.08 106.21 71 92 101 81 35.63 8.91
39 Penn State 16 50 12 28 6 19 41 11 10 27.74 24.54 19.56 18.7 18.47 18 26 8 10 28.54 7.14
40 Middle Tennessee 88 98.5 81 61 111.5 95 88 83 107 88.92 86.16 82.34 90.48 97.25 80 85 97 59 26.89 6.72
41 Vanderbilt 59 61 62.5 76 61 87 74.5 72 54 62.6 66.61 70.83 72.45 73.56 60 53 39 94 26.48 6.62
42 Southern Miss 77 78 69 66 90 67 48 61 60 75.47 73.01 70.23 72.04 67.67 52 78 63 72 25.75 6.44
43 Wisconsin 53 36 37 35 37 41 26 51 33 40.41 36.67 35.9 37.1 37.56 9 36 59 23 23.08 5.77
44 Texas Tech 14 37 17 36 17 44 59 30 36 25.53 27.96 30.25 33.23 37.93 36 24 9 25 22.97 5.74
45 UTEP 112 113 117 77 100 96 73 109 81 108.19 104.28 93.56 90.93 92.76 91 104 80 99 22.96 5.74
46 Georgia Tech 51 34 35 48 49 15 37 32 41 41.33 37.43 40.11 39.15 32.02 32 58 36 12 20.02 5.01
47 UCF 73 65 106 78 87 61.5 66 59 56 78.52 84.31 83.86 74.89 68.04 95 45 96 67 18.58 4.65
48 Oklahoma State 32 29 33 64.5 16 24 40 45 18 33.77 35.54 40.11 34.93 27.24 41 27 20 39 17.34 4.34
49 Florida 20 4 8 11 2 1 12 21 1 9.48 6.32 7.33 6.77 5.85 1 10 1 2 15.9 3.98
50 New Mexico State 112 116.5 112.5 113 119 113 117 120 115 114.36 114.42 114.4 116.14 116.3 106 113 111 114 15.31 3.83
51 Kent State 103 102 116 110.5 113 89 100 114 114 106.95 108.88 108.96 106.1 102.2 102 108 106 100 14.88 3.72
52 Louisiana 79.5 114 109 94.5 106 116 111 119 110.5 101.4 107.55 104.33 106.77 112.42 104 107 93 102 14.04 3.51
53 Ohio State 3 25 11 7 13 16 4 1 20 13.58 14.34 10.04 10.06 11.37 4 11 14 6 13.02 3.26
54 Clemson 28 43 40 21 22 23 11 42 23 34.33 33.43 25.39 22.23 22.63 29 22 30 22 12.38 3.1
55 Bowling Green 97.5 98.5 82.5 100 75 98 107 87.5 85 93.35 90.34 90.95 90.69 91.75 110 84 78 84 9.33 2.33
56 Louisiana Tech 112 49 108 97.5 97 99 96.5 80 93 86.21 89.11 100.13 96.11 95.24 115 89 77 82 8.55 2.14
57 Temple 103 115 94 101 86 75 72 89 75.5 103.8 98.17 90.81 86.11 78.87 116 106 87 68 1.89 0.47
58 Texas 1 14 10 13 3 3 16 7 3 8.95 10.2 9.29 7.38 6.08 19 12 4 3 -2.18 -0.55
59 Alabama 37 45 19 16 18 22 1 2 4 32.16 25.02 16.67 14.98 12.96 54 31 6 1 -3.17 -0.79
60 Arkansas 24 23 27 32 30 34 24 20 35 25.69 27.92 29.95 29.78 29.4 14 25 60 18 -3.66 -0.92
61 Arizona 34 40 64 15 19 49 39 47 39 38.62 41.6 34.05 28.64 38.46 44 43 24 36 -4.09 -1.02
62 LSU 15 2 2 19 7.5 5 7 3 7 7.73 6.3 9.81 9.46 5.95 3 1 21 13 -4.71 -1.18
63 California 62 24 29 9 23 12 32 34 27.5 32.62 21.67 19 19.26 22.63 8 29 16 45 -5.45 -1.36
64 Northwestern 54 67 71 51.5 71 56 69 69 58 63.01 64.9 62.22 62.73 64.07 83 77 43 57 -7.15 -1.79
65 Oklahoma 2 3 7 5 7.5 30 13 10 2 4.15 7.5 9.64 12.24 16.34 16 5 3 17 -7.48 -1.87
66 Colorado State 63 77 59 96 80 83 94.5 107 90 72.42 75.34 81.87 88.5 87.99 85 81 68 96 -11.87 -2.97
67 USC 12 1 1 6 1 2 9 9 5 4.35 2.08 3.51 4.05 4.23 2 4 2 20 -14.01 -3.5
68 SMU 67.5 75 86 107.5 91.5 94 87 67 68 80.55 88.85 95.67 93.5 86.66 86 116 114 61 -18.44 -4.61
69 Marshall 97.5 93.5 87 86 72 71 81 92.5 79 90.58 85.35 81.25 78.02 76.47 90 100 90 74 -18.81 -4.7
70 Army 86 79 100 107.5 107 119 80 99 98 90.61 98.61 104.71 105.65 104.12 103 105 104 107 -19.43 -4.86
71 Nebraska 44 28 38 10 29 21 21 33 29 31.92 27.46 23 22.01 25.08 30 60 23 14 -22.61 -5.65
72 Michigan State 39 96 13 40 43 51 56 37 32 54.19 45.79 36.45 44.93 46.8 74 46 33 53 -24.64 -6.16
73 Iowa 40 30 41 8 40 37 44 75 45 32.86 31.21 29.01 34.68 44.35 51 71 22 9 -25.24 -6.31
74 Pittsburgh 25 39 47 42 11 8 25 31 17 35.22 36.56 31.61 21.43 15.63 45 64 27 16 -27.18 -6.8
75 UNLV 89 71 93 85 88 93 82 84 92 82.94 85.3 88.32 87.21 88.39 105 97 84 85 -27.23 -6.81
76 Eastern Michigan 90.5 111 92 113 105 97 112 111 120 101.84 102.91 104.15 106.72 105.52 111 103 112 117 -27.39 -6.85
77 Louisville 66 48 54 43 26 47 54 64 44 51.34 46.38 43.71 40.85 44.95 5 44 82 80 -28.72 -7.18
78 UAB 112 97 102 87 68 100 103 104 112 98.23 93.51 89.79 86.23 94.04 97 114 100 91 -34.24 -8.56
79 Georgia 9 11 6 4 4 17 5 4 21 8.1 7.49 6.14 6.72 10.11 17 7 15 26 -36.55 -9.14
80 Auburn 11 16 31 22 9.5 6 18 16 6 17.95 20.87 19.51 13.47 10.48 11 13 58 27 -37.21 -9.3
81 Utah State 82 101 67 88 118 107 116 103 108 89.25 89.02 93.27 106.86 111.15 117 110 99 92 -39.6 -9.9
82 Akron 83 100 102 69 101 77 84 116.5 88 92.51 92.78 85.81 87.4 90.02 93 102 95 109 -40.5 -10.13
83 Arizona State 27 38 23 41 32 38 17 36 26 32.13 32.63 32.42 33.97 31.1 40 14 57 63 -42.85 -10.71
84 Kansas State 42 51 48 46 48 55 45 112 99 47.31 48.91 47.9 53.66 61.61 57 51 69 64 -43.22 -10.81
85 Toledo 86 86 97 102.5 76 79 83 113 82 89.38 91.39 91.45 87.03 83.37 96 101 107 101 -45.76 -11.44
86 South Carolina 18 15 28 20 33 7 34 13 34 20.39 22.07 24.16 23.07 21.78 24 32 38 42 -46.31 -11.58
87 Minnesota 67.5 53 58 56 62 59 28 46 72 58.71 56.91 55.82 54.54 53.03 48 98 70 60 -50.03 -12.51
88 Miami (Oh) 90.5 111 78 116 84 76 89 97 101 97.72 94.41 93.14 92.04 85.12 107 94 115 115 -53.7 -13.42
89 Mississippi 26 32 39 29 15 31 38 17 15 30.18 31.73 29.66 24.62 25.44 69 72 10 19 -53.81 -13.45
90 Indiana 76 63 62.5 75 79 74 63 65 59 68.87 68.03 71.6 73.96 70.77 78 68 103 90 -56.55 -14.14
91 Baylor 21 47 90 64.5 55 52 55 44 51 51.84 66.91 66.72 55.9 52.31 76 95 62 75 -66.64 -16.66
92 North Texas 112 104 98 81 109 103 68 116.5 117 102.44 97.82 92.45 96.48 100.24 112 115 117 116 -70.81 -17.7
93 Florida State 6 12 4 3 12 33 8 18 9 7.82 9.08 9.05 13.95 19.03 33 40 17 30 -80.1 -20.03
94 Tennessee 5 7 9 1 24 4 35 8 16 7.54 8.3 10.68 14.29 16.64 15 15 56 35 -80.19 -20.05
95 Stanford 30 26 46 38 38 43 43 15 24 33.4 38.2 41 37.76 36.87 92 67 48 29 -85.64 -21.41
96 Mississippi State 17 20 60 39 39 27 33 19 38 31.05 40.64 42.33 34.28 31.12 72 37 83 44 -87.7 -21.93
97 Iowa State 69 60 57 50 59 69 58 79 73 60.37 57.55 56.47 60.23 65.82 82 82 98 62 -89.38 -22.35
98 Idaho 93 93.5 76 79 77 84 85 115 105 86.82 81.74 78.93 82.9 87.85 109 117 116 79 -90.62 -22.66
99 Purdue 56 33 32 26 54 70 47 63 49 39.39 36.73 40.06 50.08 58.88 59 56 72 71 -91.74 -22.94
100 UCLA 7 35 24 24 20 36 10 5 8 23.28 27.23 23.52 21.8 20.84 34 33 74 48 -93.17 -23.29
101 San Diego State 64.5 55 50.5 74 85 81 96.5 100 77 61.16 62.91 72.97 84.03 87.06 98 79 109 93 -97.95 -24.49
102 Memphis 64.5 68 80 72 67 86 98.5 94 74 69.93 74.32 76.8 77.99 83.75 108 99 88 106 -101.97 -25.49
103 Virginia 10 17 25 14 53 32 62 49 66 19.37 24.72 30.55 39.81 48.01 65 41 45 69 -105.55 -26.39
104 Maryland 29 22 16 25 27 48 52 28 42 23.31 23.18 28.07 33.78 40.67 38 50 44 89 -112.66 -28.17
105 Syracuse 36 62 50.5 49 51 46 50 102 53 50.76 52.78 49.5 53.46 55.33 63 91 91 78 -116.51 -29.13
106 Duke 60 76 65 31 36 64.5 71 52 71 61.2 57.43 47.72 45.93 57.7 114 88 55 73 -117.72 -29.43
107 North Carolina 35 13 18 34 25 14 30 6 31 22.98 20.47 25.48 24.13 20.35 87 66 29 32 -120.94 -30.24
108 Washington 23 18 22 55 35 29 14 66 11 25.85 29.72 36.35 38.76 30.5 50 54 105 50 -128.32 -32.08
109 Colorado 22 19 49 44 50 35 27 57 70 31.23 39.5 44.01 43.3 42.59 84 55 67 83 -130.96 -32.74
110 Illinois 47 31 44 45 28 20 19 35 57 39.04 37.11 36.27 30.13 26.56 94 30 64 86 -131.45 -32.86
111 Washington State 48 58 21 47 45 54 74.5 43 40 45.74 40.97 43.14 50.68 53.41 37 61 110 104 -131.47 -32.87
112 Tulane 50 46 66 90 74 111 90 77 94 58.52 70.36 83.32 87.56 92.11 100 109 113 111 -133.24 -33.31
113 Notre Dame 13 5 30 27 5 11 2 23 19 14.64 18.63 19.43 12.78 9.78 21 80 51 47 -133.52 -33.38
114 Miami (Fl) 4 6 3 12 14 13 3 24 14 6.26 7.67 9.55 12.78 12.65 49 70 35 21 -138.74 -34.69
115 North Carolina State 38 9.5 20 23 42 60 29 39 47 22.95 23.82 30.97 39.05 45.74 70 65 53 70 -141.22 -35.31
116 Texas A&M 8 9.5 14 17 21 26 15 12 25 11.85 15.28 17.97 19.56 20.79 39 42 79 55 -150.35 -37.59
117 Michigan 19 8 5 2 9.5 10 6 14 12 9.55 6.09 5.53 7.67 9.72 7 21 85 76 -160.17 -40.04

 

Oregon State does in fact win the state's Lunch Pail U title, but Oregon comes in at a quite respectable 27th... but there's a problem.

This method favors teams in the middle too much.  Look at USC in 2007 as an example.  Their expected rank is 2.08.  If they end up ranked 1st, is that really the same as a team with an expected rank of 62.08 ending up 61st?  Teams at the extremes (very high and very low expected rankings) end up in a situation where there's nowhere to go but down/up.  Texas is a great example of a team with high expectations that had a few above expectation years and a few below expectation years, but ends up looking bad because the bad years had more room to go bad.

To adjust for this I added an extra calculation in to the expected rankings to pull them towards the center.  With 117 teams, the average position is 69.  The extra piece of the formula finds the difference between 69 and the expected ranking, and then moves the expected ranking 1/8 of that difference towards 69.

Say what?!?!?!  Here's an example.  Lets say team X has an expected rank of 77.  This will find the difference between 69 and 77 (i.e. 8) and then move the expected ranking 1/8 of that distance towards 69 (1/8 of 8 is 1, so 1 is subtracted from 77 for a "weighted" expected rank of 76).  2007 USC's expected rank moves from 2.08 to 10.45:  (69-2.08)/8 + 2.08 = 10.45.

 

Weighted Results:

Here are the results with the expected rank modification.

 



Scout Recruit Rankings Modified Expected Ranking Sagarin Ranking


School 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E06 E07 E08 E09 E10 S06 S07 S08 S09 Diff Diff/Yr
1 Boise State 75 73 72 73 78 57 64 60 97 73.11 71.6 70.85 69.38 67.43 6 47 12 5 214.93 53.73
2 Navy 97.5 111 107 117 93 118 113 85 84 101.47 104.18 104.44 101.17 99.69 47 69 49 37 209.24 52.31
3 TCU 61 66 70 63 73 73 114 54 63 66.16 68.3 71.65 73.29 76.98 26 49 7 4 193.4 48.35
4 Cincinnati 95 84 75 70 70 80 51 53 61 80.51 75.17 70.69 68.44 67.2 43 19 34 8 190.8 47.7
5 Air Force 112 90 95 99 116.5 104 78 118 80 95.86 94.24 96.49 100.61 97.6 73 48 54 34 178.21 44.55
6 Utah 84 95 68 71 60 66 65 55 50 79.65 73.58 67.22 64.76 62.61 46 34 5 24 176.21 44.05
7 BYU 46 59 55 53 46 42 57 40 22 55.17 55.42 53.34 50.44 47.27 13 17 32 15 137.37 34.34
8 South Florida 103 108 43 54 56.5 45 46 25 52 81.38 63.95 52.4 52.2 49.08 31 20 42 38 118.93 29.73
9 West Virginia 33 57 53 33 56.5 18 36 22 30 50 50.29 44.62 41.62 37.21 10 3 26 31 116.53 29.13
10 Oregon State 49 56 34 51.5 41 40 61 48 67 50.72 47.41 47.48 49.21 50.25 20 16 13 33 112.82 28.2
11 Central Michigan 103 85 90 92.5 99 117 79 68 100 89.58 89.55 91.78 92.71 94.08 55 73 86 41 108.62 27.16
12 Connecticut 103 82.5 79 59 66 53 70 76 69 81.06 71.83 65.99 63.69 64.35 68 39 40 28 107.57 26.89
13 Wake Forest 58 42 61 60 65 63 67 56 62 55.7 58.23 63.02 63.64 64.08 27 28 25 54 106.59 26.65
14 Hawaii 74 82.5 82.5 83 102 85 92 62 86.5 80.37 83.12 85.31 86.89 85.63 23 35 81 95 101.69 25.42
15 Rutgers 41 69 45 67 63 28 42 29 48 58.05 57.8 55.89 53.92 44.74 12 38 37 40 98.65 24.66
16 Nevada 79.5 89 102 106 82 105 109.5 108 95 87.99 93.84 96.44 94.36 95.87 56 86 66 66 98.63 24.66
17 Kansas 78 70 56 57 47 78 49 50 65 66.2 61.46 58.18 57.78 61.17 61 2 31 58 91.62 22.9
18 Tulsa 72 109 77 82 83 92 86 73 91 85.65 85.56 80.79 82.22 84.04 62 63 41 88 80.21 20.05
19 Kentucky 70 54 52 62 34 58 53 27 46 58.47 54.84 54.74 50.21 49.16 28 18 47 46 79.25 19.81
20 Oregon 31 44 15 30 52 9 23 26 13 38.3 34.18 32.75 36.92 30.42 35 8 11 11 77.15 19.29
21 East Carolina 81 81 73 84 64 72 93 86 110.5 77.23 75.16 75.59 74.99 77.72 64 62 52 49 75.96 18.99
22 Boston College 55 27 42 58 44 50 22 81 43 45.45 45.66 50.07 51.52 48.93 25 23 28 43 73.69 18.42
23 Missouri 57 52 36 37 58 39 31 38 27.5 51.26 46.32 44.25 47.22 44.6 42 6 19 52 70.05 17.51
24 Virginia Tech 45 21 26 18 31 25 20 41 37 33.51 29.34 29.28 31.4 33.46 22 9 18 7 67.52 16.88
25 Fresno State 52 64 110 92.5 96 68 60 70 64 75.28 87.34 89.16 81.36 72.78 89 59 76 56 53.14 13.28
26 Penn State 16 50 12 28 6 19 41 11 10 32.9 30.1 25.74 24.99 24.79 18 26 8 10 51.72 12.93
27 New Mexico 103 80 96 89 111.5 91 108 87.5 78 89.61 89.18 93.51 95.63 94.43 77 57 75 108 50.92 12.73
28 Wyoming 103 103 85 94.5 94.5 109 106 95 102 94.11 91.28 91.56 95.09 98.34 67 76 102 77 50.04 12.51
29 Florida 20 4 8 11 2 1 12 21 1 16.92 14.16 15.04 14.55 13.74 1 10 1 2 46.66 11.67
30 Western Michigan 93 91 90 104.5 98 106 101 91 83 90.42 92.09 95.67 97.02 95.57 66 87 73 103 46.2 11.55
31 Troy 112 72 74 68 89 64.5 76 71 86.5 81.5 72.8 73.31 74.99 74.66 75 52 65 65 45.59 11.4
32 Houston 43 41 84 80 69 61.5 77 58 55 58.52 68.87 75.42 70.16 65.97 53 75 50 51 43.97 10.99
33 Texas Tech 14 37 17 36 17 44 59 30 36 30.96 33.09 35.09 37.7 41.81 36 24 9 25 42.85 10.71
34 Ball State 86 105 104.5 109 81 88 102 101 89 95 97.34 95.42 90.46 87.98 88 74 61 113 42.21 10.55
35 Ohio State 3 25 11 7 13 16 4 1 20 20.51 21.17 17.41 17.43 18.57 4 11 14 6 41.52 10.38
36 Buffalo 112 92 114.5 102.5 114 115 115 110 109 100.08 101.77 105.14 105.86 108.09 113 93 71 97 38.85 9.71
37 Wisconsin 53 36 37 35 37 41 26 51 33 43.98 40.71 40.04 41.09 41.49 9 36 59 23 38.82 9.71
38 Georgia Tech 51 34 35 48 49 15 37 32 41 44.79 41.38 43.72 42.88 36.64 32 58 36 12 34.77 8.69
39 Rice 112 74 114.5 113 94.5 90 98.5 74 104 94.31 95.88 101.16 93.56 89.15 81 112 46 112 33.9 8.47
40 Oklahoma State 32 29 33 64.5 16 24 40 45 18 38.17 39.72 43.72 39.18 32.46 41 27 20 39 33.8 8.45
41 Clemson 28 43 40 21 22 23 11 42 23 38.66 37.88 30.84 28.08 28.43 29 22 30 22 32.46 8.11
42 San Jose State 71 88 111 104.5 91.5 102 120 92.5 75.5 87.91 96.9 100.03 96.43 95.88 58 90 92 110 31.28 7.82
43 ULM 112 116.5 112.5 110.5 109 112 91 82 113 107.72 107.19 104.28 101.07 99.21 101 83 108 98 30.26 7.57
44 Northern Illinois 93 106 99 97.5 104 114 118 105.5 103 96.27 98.09 98.57 101.53 105.23 79 111 89 87 28.47 7.12
45 Texas 1 14 10 13 3 3 16 7 3 16.46 17.55 16.75 15.08 13.95 19 12 4 3 27.84 6.96
46 Vanderbilt 59 61 62.5 76 61 87 74.5 72 54 63.4 66.9 70.6 72.02 72.99 60 53 39 94 26.92 6.73
47 LSU 15 2 2 19 7.5 5 7 3 7 15.39 14.14 17.21 16.9 13.83 3 1 21 13 25.63 6.41
48 Southern Miss 77 78 69 66 90 67 48 61 60 74.66 72.51 70.08 71.66 67.84 52 78 63 72 23.91 5.98
49 Oklahoma 2 3 7 5 7.5 30 13 10 2 12.26 15.19 17.06 19.33 22.92 16 5 3 17 22.83 5.71
50 Ohio 97.5 87 88 91 103 110 105 96 118 88.76 89.05 92.67 97.07 101.56 71 92 101 81 22.55 5.64
51 Alabama 37 45 19 16 18 22 1 2 4 36.77 30.52 23.21 21.73 19.97 54 31 6 1 20.23 5.06
52 USC 12 1 1 6 1 2 9 9 5 12.43 10.45 11.7 12.17 12.33 2 4 2 20 18.74 4.69
53 Middle Tennessee 88 98.5 81 61 111.5 95 88 83 107 86.43 84.01 80.67 87.79 93.71 80 85 97 59 17.9 4.47
54 Arkansas State 112 107 104.5 115 116.5 82 104 105.5 106 104.41 102.13 102.98 102.11 95.92 99 96 94 105 17.64 4.41
55 California 62 24 29 9 23 12 32 34 27.5 37.17 27.59 25.25 25.48 28.43 8 29 16 45 17.48 4.37
56 Arkansas 24 23 27 32 30 34 24 20 35 31.1 33.06 34.83 34.68 34.35 14 25 60 18 16.67 4.17
57 UCF 73 65 106 78 87 61.5 66 59 56 77.33 82.4 82 74.15 68.16 95 45 96 67 12.88 3.22
58 Arizona 34 40 64 15 19 49 39 47 39 42.42 45.03 38.42 33.69 42.28 44 43 24 36 12.55 3.14
59 UTEP 112 113 117 77 100 96 73 109 81 103.29 99.87 90.49 88.19 89.79 91 104 80 99 7.84 1.96
60 Nebraska 44 28 38 10 29 21 21 33 29 36.56 32.65 28.75 27.88 30.57 30 60 23 14 -1.16 -0.29
61 Bowling Green 97.5 98.5 82.5 100 75 98 107 87.5 85 90.31 87.67 88.2 87.98 88.91 110 84 78 84 -1.84 -0.46
62 Louisiana Tech 112 49 108 97.5 97 99 96.5 80 93 84.06 86.6 96.23 92.72 91.96 115 89 77 82 -3.39 -0.85
63 Louisiana 79.5 114 109 94.5 106 116 111 119 110.5 97.35 102.73 99.91 102.04 106.99 104 107 93 102 -3.97 -0.99
64 Northwestern 54 67 71 51.5 71 56 69 69 58 63.76 65.41 63.06 63.51 64.69 83 77 43 57 -4.26 -1.06
65 Kent State 103 102 116 110.5 113 89 100 114 114 102.21 103.9 103.96 101.46 98.05 102 108 106 100 -4.48 -1.12
66 Georgia 9 11 6 4 4 17 5 4 21 15.71 15.18 14 14.51 17.47 17 7 15 26 -5.61 -1.4
67 Iowa 40 30 41 8 40 37 44 75 45 37.38 35.93 34.01 38.97 47.43 51 71 22 9 -6.71 -1.68
68 New Mexico State 112 116.5 112.5 113 119 113 117 120 115 108.69 108.74 108.72 110.25 110.39 106 113 111 114 -7.6 -1.9
69 Pittsburgh 25 39 47 42 11 8 25 31 17 39.44 40.62 36.28 27.38 22.3 45 64 27 16 -8.28 -2.07
70 Temple 103 115 94 101 86 75 72 89 75.5 99.45 94.52 88.08 83.97 77.64 116 106 87 68 -10.97 -2.74
71 Auburn 11 16 31 22 9.5 6 18 16 6 24.33 26.89 25.7 20.41 17.79 11 13 58 27 -11.68 -2.92
72 Michigan State 39 96 13 40 43 51 56 37 32 56.04 48.69 40.52 47.94 49.58 74 46 33 53 -12.81 -3.2
73 Louisville 66 48 54 43 26 47 54 64 44 53.55 49.21 46.87 44.37 47.96 5 44 82 80 -17.01 -4.25
74 Colorado State 63 77 59 96 80 83 94.5 107 90 71.99 74.55 80.26 86.06 85.62 85 81 68 96 -17.14 -4.28
75 South Carolina 18 15 28 20 33 7 34 13 34 26.47 27.94 29.77 28.81 27.68 24 32 38 42 -23.02 -5.76
76 Arizona State 27 38 23 41 32 38 17 36 26 36.74 37.18 36.99 38.35 35.84 40 14 57 63 -24.74 -6.19
77 Marshall 97.5 93.5 87 86 72 71 81 92.5 79 87.88 83.3 79.72 76.89 75.54 90 100 90 74 -26.2 -6.55
78 SMU 67.5 75 86 107.5 91.5 94 87 67 68 79.1 86.37 92.33 90.44 84.45 86 116 114 61 -28.76 -7.19
79 Kansas State 42 51 48 46 48 55 45 112 99 50.02 51.42 50.54 55.58 62.53 57 51 69 64 -33.44 -8.36
80 Mississippi 26 32 39 29 15 31 38 17 15 35.03 36.39 34.58 30.17 30.89 69 72 10 19 -33.83 -8.46
81 Army 86 79 100 107.5 107 119 80 99 98 87.91 94.91 100.24 101.06 99.73 103 105 104 107 -34.88 -8.72
82 UNLV 89 71 93 85 88 93 82 84 92 81.2 83.26 85.91 84.93 85.97 105 97 84 85 -35.7 -8.93
83 Minnesota 67.5 53 58 56 62 59 28 46 72 59.99 58.42 57.47 56.35 55.03 48 98 70 60 -43.77 -10.94
84 Eastern Michigan 90.5 111 92 113 105 97 112 111 120 97.73 98.67 99.76 102.01 100.96 111 103 112 117 -44.84 -11.21
85 UAB 112 97 102 87 68 100 103 104 112 94.58 90.45 87.19 84.08 90.91 97 114 100 91 -45.71 -11.43
86 Florida State 6 12 4 3 12 33 8 18 9 15.47 16.57 16.54 20.83 25.28 33 40 17 30 -50.59 -12.65
87 Tennessee 5 7 9 1 24 4 35 8 16 15.22 15.89 17.97 21.13 23.19 15 15 56 35 -50.79 -12.7
88 Akron 83 100 102 69 101 77 84 116.5 88 89.57 89.81 83.71 85.1 87.39 93 102 95 109 -50.81 -12.7
89 Utah State 82 101 67 88 118 107 116 103 108 86.72 86.52 90.24 102.13 105.88 117 110 99 92 -52.4 -13.1
90 Toledo 86 86 97 102.5 76 79 83 113 82 86.83 88.59 88.64 84.77 81.57 96 101 107 101 -56.17 -14.04
91 Indiana 76 63 62.5 75 79 74 63 65 59 68.89 68.15 71.27 73.34 70.55 78 68 103 90 -57.36 -14.34
92 Baylor 21 47 90 64.5 55 52 55 44 51 53.99 67.17 67 57.53 54.4 76 95 62 75 -62.31 -15.58
93 Miami (Oh) 90.5 111 78 116 84 76 89 97 101 94.13 91.23 90.12 89.16 83.11 107 94 115 115 -66.36 -16.59
94 Stanford 30 26 46 38 38 43 43 15 24 37.85 42.05 44.5 41.67 40.89 92 67 48 29 -69.94 -17.48
95 UCLA 7 35 24 24 20 36 10 5 8 29 32.45 29.21 27.7 26.86 34 33 74 48 -70.65 -17.66
96 Mississippi State 17 20 60 39 39 27 33 19 38 35.79 44.19 45.66 38.62 35.86 72 37 83 44 -71.74 -17.93
97 Purdue 56 33 32 26 54 70 47 63 49 43.09 40.76 43.68 52.45 60.15 59 56 72 71 -78.02 -19.51
98 Iowa State 69 60 57 50 59 69 58 79 73 61.45 58.98 58.04 61.33 66.22 82 82 98 62 -84.21 -21.05
99 North Texas 112 104 98 81 109 103 68 116.5 117 98.26 94.22 89.52 93.05 96.34 112 115 117 116 -84.96 -21.24
100 Virginia 10 17 25 14 53 32 62 49 66 25.57 30.26 35.36 43.46 50.63 65 41 45 69 -85.36 -21.34
101 Maryland 29 22 16 25 27 48 52 28 42 29.02 28.91 33.19 38.18 44.21 38 50 44 89 -91.7 -22.93
102 Idaho 93 93.5 76 79 77 84 85 115 105 84.59 80.14 77.69 81.16 85.49 109 117 116 79 -97.42 -24.35
103 North Carolina 35 13 18 34 25 14 30 6 31 28.73 26.54 30.92 29.74 26.43 87 66 29 32 -98.07 -24.52
104 San Diego State 64.5 55 50.5 74 85 81 96.5 100 77 62.14 63.67 72.47 82.15 84.8 98 79 109 93 -98.58 -24.64
105 Memphis 64.5 68 80 72 67 86 98.5 94 74 69.81 73.66 75.83 76.87 81.91 108 99 88 106 -104.84 -26.21
106 Notre Dame 13 5 30 27 5 11 2 23 19 21.44 24.93 25.63 19.81 17.18 21 80 51 47 -107.21 -26.8
107 Syracuse 36 62 50.5 49 51 46 50 102 53 53.04 54.8 51.93 55.4 57.04 63 91 91 78 -107.82 -26.96
108 Miami (Fl) 4 6 3 12 14 13 3 24 14 14.1 15.34 16.98 19.81 19.69 49 70 35 21 -108.77 -27.19
109 Duke 60 76 65 31 36 64.5 71 52 71 62.18 58.88 50.38 48.81 59.11 114 88 55 73 -109.76 -27.44
110 Washington 23 18 22 55 35 29 14 66 11 31.24 34.63 40.43 42.54 35.31 50 54 105 50 -110.16 -27.54
111 Illinois 47 31 44 45 28 20 19 35 57 42.79 41.1 40.36 34.99 31.87 94 30 64 86 -114.77 -28.69
112 Colorado 22 19 49 44 50 35 27 57 70 35.95 43.19 47.13 46.51 45.89 84 55 67 83 -116.22 -29.05
113 Washington State 48 58 21 47 45 54 74.5 43 40 48.65 44.47 46.37 52.97 55.36 37 61 110 104 -119.54 -29.88
114 North Carolina State 38 9.5 20 23 42 60 29 39 47 28.7 29.46 35.72 42.79 48.65 70 65 53 70 -121.32 -30.33
115 Texas A&M 8 9.5 14 17 21 26 15 12 25 18.99 21.99 24.35 25.74 26.82 39 42 79 55 -123.93 -30.98
116 Michigan 19 8 5 2 9.5 10 6 14 12 16.98 13.95 13.46 15.33 17.13 7 21 85 76 -129.27 -32.32
117 Tulane 50 46 66 90 74 111 90 77 94 59.83 70.19 81.53 85.24 89.22 100 109 113 111 -136.21 -34.05

 

Sooo... the Lunch Pail U title, unsurprisingly, goes to Boise State.  It's no surprise to see TCU, Navy, and Air Force near the top either.  Oregon State places at an excellent 10th place... third among BCS schools.  Oregon places a very respectable 20th.  So the Beavs win this round, but the Ducks are right there behind them.  Hopefully, this will help them feel better after we win our third straight Civil War.

At the other end of the spectrum, this just reinforces how much Michigan has fallen in the past few years.  It's no surprise to see Notre Dame and the NC schools near the bottom either.  I was a bit surprised about Tulane though.  They had some decent recruiting classes in the early part of the decade, but don't have anything to show for it.  Another victim of Hurricane Katrina I suppose.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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