ATQ Blogpoll: TCU and BSU make their early cases
by jtlight on Sep 7, 2010 12:00 PM PDT
in ATQ Blogpoll
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PrintWith week one in the books, TCU and Boise State are leading my blogpoll ballot. Both had good games against solid opponents. However, in the end I went with TCU simply because they handled their game with much more ease. While the score in TCU's game didn't get out of control, they dominated the box score. Boise State had a very good game as well, but was not nearly as impressive. Their defense looked overmatched for long stretches, but they got it done at the end of the day, with big plays from the QB position. They have probably the best QB in the nation, and they'd be in any game they played because of him.
After that, it's a bit of a crapshoot. Being the first week, a lot of the results will be a bit skewed because all we have to look at is one game, and I'm doing my best to look at resume as much as possible. Alabama and Ohio State both did what they needed to do, dominating weaker opponents. Oregon jumps up on it's thrashing of possibly the worst team in D-1A. Arizona makes a significant leap going on the road against a competent Toledo team and showing that it will be a good team on both sides of the ball.
I dropped Florida and Oklahoma because both looked like utter garbage.
Addicted To Quack Ballot - Week 2
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TCU Horned Frogs |  4 |
| 2 | Boise St. Broncos | 7 |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide |  -2 |
| 4 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -2 |
| 5 | Oregon Ducks | 5 |
| 6 | Arizona Wildcats | 16 |
| 7 | Wisconsin Badgers | -1 |
| 8 | Miami Hurricanes | 8 |
| 9 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -1 |
| 10 | Iowa Hawkeyes | -3 |
| 11 | Utah Utes | -- |
| 12 | Texas Longhorns | -9 |
| 13 | Florida St. Seminoles | 1 |
| 14 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | -- |
| 15 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 5 |
| 16 | Georgia Bulldogs | 8 |
| 17 | Auburn Tigers | -- |
| 18 | Stanford Cardinal | 3 |
| 19 | Michigan Wolverines | -- |
| 20 | Fresno St. Bulldogs | -- |
| 21 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | -2 |
| 22 | USC Trojans | -4 |
| 23 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 24 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -- |
| 25 | Mississippi St. Bulldogs | -- |
| Dropouts: Florida Gators, Oklahoma Sooners, Virginia Tech Hokies, North Carolina Tar Heels, Oregon St. Beavers, Pittsburgh Panthers | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
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AP Poll
Ducks moved up to 7th in the AP poll just out
Sorry, I just don’t see TCU over BSU right now. TCU’s win wasn’t that dominant, it was a de facto home game for the Frogs, where BSU flew across the country and beat a respected team playing in its own back yard with VASTLY superior uniforms.
I just can’t see a case to dislodge Bama from #1. They’re the defending champs. They look loaded.
Average Score Since 2004: Oregon 42 Washington 17
I just can’t see a case to dislodge Bama from #1. They’re the defending champs. They look loaded.
TCU and BSU have better wins this year.
Last year standings has less influence on a true resume based poll than actual wins. Alabama did what they should have done, but they don’t have the most impressive win. When ’Bama hits the SEC schedule, it will all work itself out.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
TCU and BSU have better wins this year.
If that’s the standard, let’s drop the preseason polls altogether.
I’m kind of a traditionalist. You’re the defending champion until you either lose or retire. YMMV, that’s just how I feel.
Still think BSU should be over TCU, regardless.
Average Score Since 2004: Oregon 42 Washington 17
If that’s the standard, let’s drop the preseason polls altogether.
Agreed 100%. I actually think this might be the first year the blog poll has done a preseason poll.
I can understand the “defending champion” perspective. However, if participants of the blog poll are to handle their ballots as designed, they will do it based upon what has happens on the field. I would suspect that the winner of the Alabama/Penn State game this weekend will be top 3, if not top vote in many/most ballots. I also suspect Ohio State/Miami to solidify their place on the top of the polls.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
I would probably move Utah up for their win over Pitt. I find that to be a more impressive win than what Miami, Nebraska, or Iowa put up. Maybe more than Wisconsin too.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
I think 11 is about right. Pitt looked really bad most of that game, and it’s hard to say whether that was because Utah was that dominant or because Pitt was way over-rated. That the Utes probably should have won that game by two touchdowns but needed OT is enough to make me hesitate about putting them in the top 10.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
I guess I don’t view the top 10 as a prestigious land for teams to reign. Maybe they aren’t a top 10 caliber team, but I still find their win over Pitt more impressive than a 30 point win over Eastern Illinois
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
It may have a little more prestige to say that you won over Pitt than Eastern Illinois, but I’m not really sure I can call Utah’s win all that impressive. I don’t think either team looked all that good.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Yeah, I don’t mean to make it sound like Utah has to be out of the top 10. Really I just meant that I wouldn’t move them over any teams ahead of them. Other than Utah’s D-line, which did a great job of bottling up Dion Lewis, both teams struggled enough that I’d give more credit to a team that blew out a lesser opponent.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
I guess I kind of think
If the preseason polls were accurate (i.e. Pitt was ~#15, and Utah ~#25), then you’d generally expect Utah to win in a close game at home, because cross-country road trips really suck. And that’s what happened. So I don’t get moving Utah way up or Pitt way down for that.
My original poll had Pitt 25th and Utah unranked.
But I’m also trying not to pay any attention to poll inertia. If Utah has the 11th best resume, that’s where they’ll end up.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Sep 7, 2010 2:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Utah's defense is definitely legitimate.
I attended the Utah/Pitt game, and it was Utah’s defense that got them the win. They continually stuffed Dion Lewis, and had a couple of really impressive goal line stands. Most notably, the one at the end of the game when Pitt had a chance to punch it in from the 3 yard line for the win. Utah’s offense is still a work in progress, but has the potential to become very good.
by Oregonfan_03 on Sep 7, 2010 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Forget those polls - this is the one that counts.
What’s worse is Smokey of Tenn is kicking our ass in the head to head!
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/standings/main
Hoover: They confiscated everything, even the stuff we didn't steal!
I tried, but it thinks my nickname is computer generated.
Average Score Since 2004: Oregon 42 Washington 17
by benzduck on Sep 7, 2010 1:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s what you get for having the nickname “sweetthang19”
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
by JShufelt on Sep 7, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Any suggestions? I’m new at this whole online thing with the intertubes.
Average Score Since 2004: Oregon 42 Washington 17
by benzduck on Sep 7, 2010 1:15 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm confused
Nebraska beat a Western Kentucky team that was winless last year and they won by 28 points, but Oregon who beat a team with 1 win from last year by 72 points didn’t jump them. At least the AP has it right by having us higher than florida. I still think Texas is “over rated” as in ranked too high. Oregon should be 5th probably if we were based on week 1 performance. It still was nice to see some teams drop from their high horse even with a win.
"I used to play sports. Then I realized you can buy trophies. Now I'm good at everything." - Demetri Martin
the ap and coaches poll
Are the polls referred to here, not the blog pole, just for clarifications sake
"I used to play sports. Then I realized you can buy trophies. Now I'm good at everything." - Demetri Martin
by haveasoda on Sep 7, 2010 7:11 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I know we hate OSewe, but...
…dropping them out of the top 25 after coming within a couple of minutes and a bad snap of beating your current #1 team on the road? That makes zero sense. Same thing with VA tech – is there something I’m missing about teams with a loss? There’s no way that Fresno St. comes close to beating either team, and based on the way they played either would Oklahoma or Florida. What gives?
They have a loss. Their resume is worse than every other team on this list.
As far as fresno goes, they have one of the better wins in the country. They will likely lose a game soon and fall accordingly. The blogpoll is heavily influenced by resume and what happens on the field. OSU and VT have some of the better losses in the country but right now that doesn’t mean much.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Sep 7, 2010 2:32 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It took me awhile to grasp this concept last year, just because the blogpoll is so different from all the human rankings out there. The main concept is that the blogpoll is (or should be) completely immune to inertia and speculation. It doesn’t matter how good we think you SHOULD be, it only matters how good you’ve been. A loss is a loss, even if it came against a quality opponent.
This makes the blogpoll EXTREMELY volatile in the first three weeks or so. And really, that’s the way it should be. With such a limited sample size, conclusions are going to change drastically on a weekly basis. It’s like a hitter who goes 2-for-4 in his first game and then 0-for-5 in his second. Before the second game, he was probably one of the best hitters in baseball. After the second game, he was below average. We won’t really know what kind of hitter he is until game 50 or so, but until then, we have to use the evidence that’s available to us.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
What if this happened
Say a team goes 0-12, but all the losses are to the best 12 teams. And all games are extremely close, and the team looks really good while losing. Shouldn’t I consider ranking them 13th?
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
Not if there is a team that beat one of those 12 teams, and has numerous other victories
Say what you mean, and say it mean. - Clint Ruin
TCU at #1? Oookay.
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 7, 2010 3:10 PM PDT reply actions
Why not?
They had easily the most impressive win of the weekend.
Think of the Blogpoll after Week 1 as a poll that has no idea who is supposed to be good this year. There is no preconception. After the first week or even the first few weeks, no team with a loss will be in the top 25. Because no team with a loss should be ahead of a team that is undefeated.
It’s pretty difficult to grasp at first, yeah, but it’s logical as an alternative to the human polls that are chock full of the politicking and positioning in college football polls.
My yoke is heavy.
by qrsouther on Sep 7, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Boise State won against a top 10 team on the road (basically). TCU beat a borderline top 25 team at home (basically).
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 8, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
So no other aspects of the football game should be taken into account?
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
What aspects do you want taken into account?
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 8, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
How they played, what happened in the game, final score, extenuating circumstances …
It’s not ONLY, they played X and they played Y. There are other aspects to a game then “who” they played and “where” they played.
Hey Daisy, git me anudder one!
Addicted to Quack
I realize this. I wanted specifics.
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 8, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
With week one in the books, TCU and Boise State are leading my blogpoll ballot. Both had good games against solid opponents. However, in the end I went with TCU simply because they handled their game with much more ease. While the score in TCU’s game didn’t get out of control, they dominated the box score. Boise State had a very good game as well, but was not nearly as impressive. Their defense looked overmatched for long stretches, but they got it done at the end of the day, with big plays from the QB position. They have probably the best QB in the nation, and they’d be in any game they played because of him.
Hey Daisy, git me anudder one!
Addicted to Quack
Right, and the fact that the respective performances came against two opponents of different qualities and the fact that one was essentially a road game and one was essentially a home game didn’t factor?
Come on, this is just BSU hate.
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 8, 2010 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks Sherlock. By George, I think you’ve figured it out. I’m guessing you’r petitioning the AP and Coaches Poll to find out why all those people have BSU hate too because they didn’t vote BSU #1.
Get over it.
Hey Daisy, git me anudder one!
Addicted to Quack
No, I just don’t think that anyone can substantiate the claim that TCU has done enough to merit themselves as being the top team in the country.
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 8, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
You may disagree, but
However, in the end I went with TCU simply because they handled their game with much more ease. While the score in TCU’s game didn’t get out of control, they dominated the box score. Boise State had a very good game as well, but was not nearly as impressive.
But jumping to
this is just BSU hate.
Is pretty simplistic and closed minded logic and makes me think that you’re the one with the tinted glasses on here, not Jared.
Hey Daisy, git me anudder one!
Addicted to Quack
Oh and by the way
74 other voters disagree with your claim
I’m guessing it’s just hate there too?
Hey Daisy, git me anudder one!
Addicted to Quack
His name is Brian.
Not Sherlock or George.
Chairman, Tako Owes MCD a Half Rack of Keg Stickers Committee
by Bill Musgrave on Sep 8, 2010 7:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Come on, this is just BSU hate.
If that’s all it was, Jared could have found reasons to rank them much, much lower.
--Dave
Addicted to Quack, your friendly, neighborhood Oregon Ducks blog
Come on, this is just BSU hate.
I realize BSU’s win is arguably better than TCU’s on face value, but he put the team at #2 in the nation on his ballot. If he wanted to be a real asshole and hate on BSU, he would have dropped them because of some chickenshit reason like an illegitimate win due to poor officiating.
My yoke is heavy.
GPS Musgrave says,
You need to turn around, you’re not using your Brian
Hey Daisy, git me anudder one!
Addicted to Quack
Confirmed.
Note: GMusgrave has an Australian accent.
BMusgrave.
Chairman, Tako Owes MCD a Half Rack of Keg Stickers Committee
by Bill Musgrave on Sep 9, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Come on, this is just BSU hate.
Yeah, that must be it.
TCU had a far more dominating performance. They almost doubled OSU’s yards, controlled the ball throughout the entire game, and shut down OSU’s Heisman candidate. They left a lot of points on the field by turnovers (which I view as basically random in general). In contrast, BSU jumped out to an early lead (on mostly random plays), and almost gave away a 3 score lead. Though they were on the road, that doesn’t make up for the disparity of the performance between the two teams in my mind. I was fully prepared to vote them number one after the first quarter, but they could not come close to sustaining that level.
So how bout this? Why don’t you bring forth an actual argument instead of this weak-assed shit. If you can’t do that basic thing, go away. Seriously.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Boise also played a superior team on the road. Your point?
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 10, 2010 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
First, we have no idea that VT is superior or inferior to OSU at this point. I’m inclined to believe that VT is better, but not substantially so. In my preseason Blogpoll, I had VT 12th, and OSU 15th. So, in my mind, the only main difference is location. BSU gets a boost to their win because of going on the road, but that does not overcome how they played in their game, compared to how TCU played. BSU squeaked out a win. TCU controlled their game.
BSU won their game by 3 (and it was closer than that), while TCU won their game by 9 (and it wasn’t that close). Given that home field advantage is typically worth 3 points in either direction, that means that at least in terms of final score, both teams were about even if you consider the opponents roughly equal. It comes down, in my mind, to how the teams looked. To me, BSU didn’t look like a team that could win a title, while TCU did. They controlled their game. BSU had every opportunity to do so, and failed.
Obviously, we’re nitpicking. Both wins were very good, but to me, TCU’s was more impressive.
But once again, we come back to the problem of you being unable to carry on an actual constructive argument on this topic. You’ve been pissy and argumentative throughout this conversation. If you think that where the game was played was the most important factor, please, tell us why. You have failed, yet again, to do this.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
TennesseeQuackAttack8, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
That's weird, I just typed a bunch of 1s and !s and it came out as trying to recognize an image.
Well, the blue question mark makes it kind of amusing too.
My yoke is heavy.
One thing I'd say through watching both the games, TCU looked more polished of the two teams.
Either way, they both had quality wins. That’s why they’re the top two teams in this week’s poll.
My yoke is heavy.
Just my 2 cents:
1) I like Boise’s win better than I like TCU’s. Both are impressive, and the two teams deserve to be #1/#2. But Boise’s win came in the backyard of what I believe to have been a superior foe.
2) I’m a bit hesitant to support ranking LSU after they nearly let half a UNC squad claw their way back into the game. I’d almost rather rank Notre Dame than them.
Otherwise, this is basically a tiny modicum less of a crapshoot than last week’s was. It’s pretty hard to find fault with most rankings (that have the Ducks in the top 5, obviously).
Getting hit by Eddie "Pleasant" is likely not as fun as advertised.
Is there another team in the country that has beaten 2 teams in the current top ten in the last year (+ 1 week).
Not only has BSU beaten an Oregon team that is virtually unchanged and TCU, but they beat a team that will almost certainly win their own BCS conference.
I heart taxes.
by very definition
last year’s results are irrelevant.
--Dave
Addicted to Quack, your friendly, neighborhood Oregon Ducks blog
I know, I know... its still hard for me to get my head around that.
I also think its impossible to apply the concept in any real fashion.
If all things are equal at the beginning of the season, then Oregon, who won their game, against an equal opponent, by the largest margin, AND had the most O points and least D points, should be number 1.
When you are applying things you know, in some arbitrary way, results are going to be all over the place. Like what exactly is it about Alabama that would make someone think they are the third best? All they have done, is beat San Jose State. someone is obviously applying something they know about them, And, if you are going to include something, why not include the fact that you know the players on BSU are almost the same exact players who have handled more of the best teams in the country recently, than any of the players on the other teams?
I know the conversation has been had, but its fresh now, and I didn’t chime-in/bitch last year.
I heart taxes.
It isn’t that all things are suppose to be all equal at the beginning, it’s that last year’s results are irrelevant.
Nobody needs rankings to tell them that winning 72-0 is more impressive vs. Texas than New Mexico.
Nobody needs polls to be shown that Florida has great talent on their team.
A pollster’s ballot doesn’t dictate how great of a coach Chip Kelly can be.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
Right, people know, without polls, that the BSU team they ranked second to TCU, is almost the same exact “talent” that polished TCU 9 months ago.
We know the players are better, because of that one time we had a chance to evaluate the players on the field at the same time relatively recently.
I heart taxes.
That game has absolutely no bearing on this season, though. Especially because the results of bowl games are extremely suspect, and entirely meaningless on the next season.
We simply cannot extrapolate a win last season having impact on a game this season.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Forget the final score, or the stats, or anything else...
Just try and remember how much better the players in blue looked versus the players in Purple.
How are you rating the players on Alabama? using Rivals stats?
Admit its arbitrary, right now!!!
I heart taxes.
There is no system that will be void of arbitrariness.
Also, Rivals, while not 100% accurate (Nor does anyone claim it is), is still a solid method of projecting talent. This has been shown and demonstrated, over, and over, and over.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
I like it.
A poll that uses only Rivals stats as a base point, and then only head to head information from that season (based on the Rivals rankings) to adjust the rankings.
Anyone have way more time than I do?
I heart taxes.
Another also!
Just try and remember how much better the players in blue looked versus the players in Purple.
I also remember a really, really bad team in white, green, yellow, black, and carbon/steel vs. a team in Blue and Orange, a team in Black and Gold, and a team in Red and white. They ended up winning the Pac-10, and looked a hundreds of times better at a different part of the year and against much tougher opponents.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
I understand your point, and I am really just bored in class.
But still, it is is clear that the poll in question (^) uses some wins and games from last year to evaluate talent, and is explicitly refusing to factor others in.
Like you said, there are no polls without some level of arbitrary, but I think that some would have you believe that the technique used here was something like the Rivals technique I described above, while it is almost certainly something more personal, and now the “rules” are being used to defend the personal decisions.
I heart taxes.
It’s totally arbitrary. I think that Wisconsin and Iowa had better wins that Utah this week, but that’s pretty much a judgement call.
But last years games have absolutely no impact on this years rankings. TCU beat Boise in a bowl game two years ago. Boise won last year. Neither of those wins really mean a whole lot moving forward, and have no impact on this seasons rankings.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Cause it would be weid,
to refuse to use the information you have on each team as they appear on the field together, in favor of only the information you have that tries to compare them when they are no less than 1000 miles away from one another.
I heart taxes.
I put absolutely no stock in bowl results. They do not impact my ballot in any way. They are terrible indicators of future performance.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Fair enough; I respect that.
Are there metrics that show that any given single regular season game is a better indicator of future performance than any given single bowl game?
I heart taxes.
I suggest this article. Money quote:
Here is the bottom line. There is value in determining who gained worthwhile momentum during the last 3-5 games of the season, but you should not spend even five seconds attempting to derive value in bowl performances.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I read that article when you posted it earlier,
and, based on his metrics, I would say you could fairly say, that a bowl win is not valuable by itself to see what a team will do the following year, but…
What he does not say, is that a bowl game result is any less valuable than any other single game result played the previous season.
He is trying to prevent on over-reliance on late late season performance, and not reliance on the results in general.
I heart taxes.
There are obviously indicators from last season on what will spur success. Bowl games are not one of those things.
As far as this poll goes, the question becomes, at what point do you stop using previous years results? I say they should never be taken into account, because that will only muddy the waters later on.
This isn’t a power poll, this isn’t a prediction, it’s a reflection on what has happened this season.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Actually
In the case of TCU and BSU, who both come from non-aq conferences, the manner in which you finish the season previous does influence preseason rankings, which in turn can influence your road to a BCS bowl. It is by far more important for teams from a non-aq conference to start as highly ranked as possible in the preseason polls in order to make a decent run, especially at the title game which is the case for BSU this season.
Take for example the ‘04 and ’08 Utah teams who both ran the table and destroyed a Pitt and Alabama team respectively. They were never in the running for the NC game for a variety of reasons. One being they didn’t start high enough in the polls to bust into the top two rankings. Of course, having undefeated teams in front of you who have a tougher sos won’t help either.
The point is, to say that last season’s fiesta bowl has no bearing on this season isn’t exactly correct. Especially when the teams in question are from non-aq conferences.
by Oregonfan_03 on Sep 9, 2010 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
You are working under the assumption that preseason polls have a significant impact on the end of the season. I do not accept that assumption.
In the instances you described, preseason rankings were far down the line on why those teams didn’t make the title game.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
We know the players are better, because of that one time we had a chance to evaluate the players on the field at the same time relatively recently.
Even though BSU had a nice returning crew, that in no ways assures them that they would beat TCU again.
Based upon most measurable methods (Weight, speed, caliber), BSU perform as they should against the WAC, and they over-perform for 1-2 big(ish) games a year. It is commendable to the program and they deserve props for their accomplishments, but over-performance is hardly a reliable predictor.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
Hey, question about the Depth Chart for Oregon
- Who’s the RB going to be on Saturday? Was Lamichael James out for the Tennessee game, too? I’m not sure on the details here.
- Who are the three/four starting WRs for you guys?
- Are there any players who are definately out for the Tennessee game?
I ask this because I do an NCAA 2011 playthrough of Tennessee’s opponents before each game, and am trying to figure out the exact Depth Chart for Oregon. The rosters are from Operation Sports (which I love) and the only changes I’ve made to them right now are: Boosting UT’s Matt Simms up to an 83 overall (mostly awareness, which I think is fair, with small +/- tweaks to power and accuracy after week 1’s performance), Tweaked the WR stats oh-so-slightly for the Vols, to put both Freshmen Hunter and Rodgers at 80ish, and made Darron Thomas an 88 overall and lowerd Costa to an 80 to reflect Thomas’s role as starting QB. Most of Thomas’s improvement was minor additions to his running ability, a slight up to awareness, and an increase in his 78 or so Accuracy to an 86.
______________________________________________
I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
*LaMichael and Kenjon will split time on Saturday. Chip Kelly refers to them as our 1A and 1B backs. If I had to guess, though, I would say LaMichael will get a few more carries. That’s completely speculatory, though.
*Jeff Maehl, DJ Davis, Lavasier Tuinei, Josh Huff/Blake Cantu
*I can’t think of any absences off the top of my head. No starters, I’m almost 100% sure.
"(Kelly's) got a veteran team that is the favorite to win the Pac-10. His choice of Thomas reflects only one belief: He’s our best QB today."-Ted Miller
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Sep 7, 2010 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Speculatory??
Isn’t that where they do OBGYN exams?
Average Score Since 2004: Oregon 42 Washington 17
by benzduck on Sep 7, 2010 6:01 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You forgot Tyrece Gaines and Diante Jackson.
I think that there is a great chance that one of them steps up this season.
Wait, whats that!? NOOOOOO!
Self anointed President of the Kenjon Barner fan club.
Oh, and I replaced Palardy with Daniel Lincoln,
who is going to be UT’s starting Kicker right now (he wasn’t expected to be!) and made him an 87, because I hate having bad kickers. I can’t remember what he was before this. I also am going to tweak the Defensive Line to include Victor Thomas’ switch to DT (he’s still a Center in the depth chart, but made his stats so that he’s around a 78 DT. He was in the 60’s as it was, with no edit made, which I thought was a bit unfair. Also increased Gerrald Williams (DE)’s stats very slightly to make him a 70ish and moved him to a situational DT/DE.
If you’re wanting to sim this game, be sure to put Zach Rodgers as the starting WR in the place of Gerald Jones, who has a hand injury and will not play this weekend.
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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
I went and
played the game already, if any of you are interested. It was a better game than I anticipated, though I still have found the “Spread” offenses to be mostly utter garbage in NCAA 11 and Oregon’s offense didn’t manage to do that much against me. I don’t expect the Vols to hold Oregon to 7 points, though it easily could have been 17, and two of the TDs for me were on fairly interesting plays. Much better game than I’m used to playing, and I’m fairly ashamed for that.
If you’re wondering, I play on All-American, with Injuries and Fatigues, all sliders set to 50 except holding, facemasks, and clipping, which I tone down to 20ish. Just to toss the info out there.
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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
dude you screwed up your rosters
Sims isn’t more than 81, the frosh shouldn’t be more than 77, and good god Thomas shouldn’t be more than an 85
"Suck it CaDuck!" --Matt Daddy
Victor Thomas
Is a … err .. 74 DT, I think? Sims at 83 is just assuming he has as high an Awareness as virtually all of the first-year starting QBs in the league (It’s like, 65 on my roster, up from a 48 or so). Considering his family history, I think it’s a fair assessment. He’s also a Junior, lest we forget. I think I raised his power by 1 and lowered his accuracy by 2, simply because he’s shown a bigger arm than expected but hasn’t shown the accuracy I’ve heard of.
Oh, you meant your Thomas, too. Moron me. I had him higher because I’ve noticed that “Scrambler” type QBs tend to suck completely and utterly and horrendously unless they have fairly high stats. Even at an 88 he made a grand total of 0 plays with his feet when I played the game.
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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
First, I'd put Thomas' agility at about 84. He's good on his feet.
His speed, however, should only be about an 82. His acceleration should rest even lower, at 77 or 78. He’s slow to get up to speed.
My yoke is heavy.
I gave Thomas decent scrambling stats
For the reasons mentioned above. I really hate how NCAA 11, to me, feels like they’ve killed running the ball from the spread. I guess it’s the price for Locomotion, which I do like overall.
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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
Really? Personally I love what they’ve done with our Zone Read. In previous games you could almost never run successfully with the QB, and you got almost no time to make the read. Now it’s somewhat realistic.
Addicted to Quack, the home of Tako Tuesdays
Welcome to the club, Cody Ross. You can stay at my house.
I can't see it.
I think I need to tone down one of the sliders for the Defensive Awareness on fakes, because I tend to get dropped for 2-5 yard losses on Zone Reads if I hand off or don’t about 90% of the time. I know one of the sliders controls how quick the linebackers and secondary “recognize” a running play, or the direction of a fake. If you leave it at default it can get nasty to try to fool the Defense, ever.
______________________________________________
I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
I would like your playthroughs more,
if it was a Tennessee fan vs. a fan of Tennessee’s opponent every week.
I think our resident idiot NCAA 11 player, axemen23, would put up more than 7 points using the Ducks, and I also think that would be a bit more realistic.
Q: How come Oregon State players haven't gotten in trouble for stealing anything from a frat house?
A: Who wants to steal a lunchbox?
by QuackQuackAttack on Sep 8, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
New here
But I take serious umbrage with your removal of Florida from the list.
I will be the first to admit, they looked awful on offense, but they still put up 34 points. If not for a few early turnovers they’d have dropped 50 easily. Their defense allowed zero touchdowns and scored a pick-six. That was with starting Safety, Will Hill suspended for the game. They also moved the remaining Pouncey brother to center. They will fix all these issues.
They are by no means top 10 based on this season, but put me in a dress and call me Sally if they aren’t better than Mississippi State.
However, this is a Ducks board and while I may be a huge biased Oregon fan, I think they roll any team besides Alabama and Ohio State. I think they could neutral-field destroy TCU and BSU today, and they will probably beat Tennessee by 40.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
The thing is, the turnovers happened, the awful offense happened, and it happened against a team that could rival New Mexico for suckitude. Yes, Florida will almost certainly get better, but all we “know” is what happened last week. And that’s all the blogpoll is measuring. Last Saturday, if both teams played the way they did against each other, Mississippi St. would have beaten Florida. And Oklahoma. Hence the ranking.
Don’t worry, they’ll be back up there. If not next week, then certainly the week after.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
I don’t necessarily disagree with your comments, but that’s not what the blogpoll is about. It’s about the resume the team has put forth. And right now, that’s one game. The rankings will be fluctuating wildly over the next few weeks, and I fully expect Florida to make a comeback.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
This is the conundrum of the pollster.
Do you rate the teams as they are now, or as to where you think they will be at the end of the season?
That’s the problem with early season polls, and the occasionally insane results. My biggest nightmare (OK, not the biggest, that one involves a certain school nurse) is a recurrence of BYU’s 1984 march to #1, fueled by an early season win over a wildly overrated team (Pitt) that wound up 3-8. That was BYU’s only game against a “ranked team” all season. That the ranking itself was bogus meant nothing, because once BYU got into the polls, they kept moving up by attrition, and “earned” the NC by beating a .500 Michigan in the Holiday Bowl.
Can that nightmare scenario repeat itself? Not really; the computers act as the sane members of the group, and they’ll move BSU down gradually based on SOS. Even if they can’t be dislodged from the top two, at least BSU would have to win a NC on the field against another top-two team. It wouldn’t be “fair”, but when Alabama beats them 63-7, imagine the ensuing neener-fest! Our friends in Boise would never live it down.
The good news is that the nightmare scenario hasn’t recurred in 26 years. So everybody take a deep breath. Besides, it’s not out of the question that BSU might choke on its own penis some weekend.
Average Score Since 2004: Oregon 42 Washington 17
"probably beat Tennessee by 40"
Is probably far and away too optimistic ;-)
While Oregon could definately get on a roll, and it could entirely be that UT’s offense chokes and sputters like .. well, like it has, in times not-so-long-ago, to think you’ll beat any SEC team by 40 in their place is a bit ridiculous. Well, maybe not if it’s Ole Miss….
I was about to say I don’t see how you don’t rank Michigan higher, but **** Michigan see if I care!
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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
Yeah
I may be a huge biased Oregon fan
Threw me off a bit. Either way .. Florida can’t beat us by .. wait .. ::checks:: Hah, yes, Florida’s biggest win was by 39 tyvm Florida Fans!! ;-)
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I will give my North Carolina for Tennessee Today. Apparently.
Actually I was referring to the Ducks game coming up
Florida didn’t beat the Vols by 40 even with Tebow or Wuerffel, so there’s no reason to think they can do so now.
However, if there’s one team that can really destroy UT it’s the Ducks. I think UT will be pretty awful this year minus Berry and Hardesty. It should be a fun scene in Knoxville in front of all those screaming creamsicle people.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
Ok, well, I stand corrected. I don’t agree with you – I think the Vols defense is good enough (and the season is young enough) that the Ducks won’t be able to run up the score that much.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
We'll see
It is still a big-boy SEC school at home. The Ducks have a big task ahead of them, but I think they are up for it.
This whole poll really took me off guard. I’ve seen power polls before, but this isn’t really that. It’s a poll that intentionally suffers from what we at baseball blogs refer to as SSSS (Small Sample Size Syndrome). This is why I like the Harris poll. It doesn’t come out until a few weeks into the season, and everybody has a sufficient body of work from which they can be judged. This…. this is just madness (insert Sparta joke here).
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
I think it’s interesting. You’re right that it probably shouldn’t come out until week 5 or so, but the powers that be want it earlier, so it’s fun to discuss.
Football polls will ALWAYS suffer from small sample sizes. Can you imagine the conniptions that would be had if people tried to derive any sort of meaningful information in baseball from 12 freaking data points? You’d be publicly flogged at a sabremetrics convention.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
That's exactly why sabermetrics are only extremely useful in baseball
You can’t judge a player accurately until he has like 1000 plate appearances. Slumps and hot streaks are much more pronounced in baseball with the 162 game season, and playing every day.
If baseball suffers from SSS, football does ten times more because of the schedule.
But on the topic of this particular poll, if we’re judging by Week 1 performances then Oregon is clearly #1. This time next week, after Ohio State loses, I will be surprised if they aren’t in the top 2. Alabama may lose as well, Penn State is a really good team. I must say I don’t understand the TCU ranking. They won, but it wasn’t a blowout, OSU could have won that game.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
It’s only madness if you are thinking about this as any sort of traditional poll, where lazy voters continue with voter inertia.
If you actually reevaluate every week, it’s a pretty great system.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I guess it's like the Cubism of polls
If you’re looking at Cubism from the perspective of any pre-existing art, well then it’s pretty much a clusterfuck.
However, if you look at Cubism from the perspective of “LOL that lady is messed up that’s awesome” well then it’s fabulously entertaining.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
also jtlight...
…I would not say that TCU won with “more ease”. There was nothing easy about that win for TCU. Another thing, statistics never tell the whole picture and indeed were not too indicative of how close this game was. In fact, OSU had an oppotunity to tie or win with a 2-pt conversion DESPITE the statistics. Which says alot about OSU as a team and hanging in there.
TCU absolutely won with more ease compared to BSU’s game.
They were both close games, but TCU sealed their victory with a safety (Requiring 2 scores). They just had to burn off 4 minutes off the clock after that.
Boise State held on a 4th and long with 1 minute left on the clock.
it’s spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-L-L-W-A-R-M-A-N-D-F-U-Z-Z-Y"
Not only that, but my view is that turnovers are a pretty much random event. When a team loses the turnover battle significantly like TCU did, but still is dominant on both sides of the ball to win the game by two scores, that tells me a lot about that team.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
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