FanPost

Shufelt CPU Rankings - Week 6

ESPN College Gameday hits the Eugene campus early tomorrow morning and will feature the Sun Devils vs. the Fighting Ducks. The polls have them both in the top 25, but have they both proven to in the top 25?

44086_espns_power_football_medium

via cdn3.sbnation.com

Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 5

RankTeamRecordVoW AvgVoW DeltaRank Delta
1 Alabama (6-0) 3.808 0.134 ↔ 0
2 Boise State (5-0) 3.712 0.599 ↔ 0
3 Oklahoma (5-0) 3.547 0.591 ↑ 1
4 LSU (6-0) 3.129 0.359 ↑ 1
5 Stanford (5-0) 2.977 -0.102 ↓ 2
6 Oklahoma State (5-0) 2.783 0.100 ↑ 1
7 Michigan (6-0) 2.757 0.025 ↓ 1
8 Notre Dame (4-2) 2.341 0.046 ↔ 0
9 Texas A&M (3-2) 2.202 0.284 ↑ 1
10 Oregon (4-1) 2.060 0.382 ↑ 4
11 Wisconsin (5-0) 1.868 0.126 ↑ 2
12 Texas (4-1) 1.656 -0.627 ↓ 3
13 Georgia Tech (6-0) 1.639 -0.231 ↓ 2
14 Houston (6-0) 1.511 0.408 ↑ 7
15 Rutgers (4-1) 1.493 0.297 ↑ 3
16 Illinois (6-0) 1.414 0.287 ↑ 3
17 West Virginia (5-1) 1.386 0.165 ↔ 0
18 Georgia (4-2) 1.280 0.660 ↑ 20
19 Florida (4-2) 1.277 -0.468 ↓ 7
20 Clemson (6-0) 1.266 -0.227 ↓ 5
21 Arizona State (5-1) 1.260 0.647 ↑ 18
22 Temple (4-2) 1.214 0.914 ↑ 27
23 Baylor (4-1) 1.202 0.315 ↑ 7
24 Penn State (5-1) 1.164 0.156 ↑ 2
25 South Florida (4-1) 1.101 -0.166 ↓ 9
Dropped: South Carolina, Cincinanati, Nebraska, North Carolina, Tennessee

It's quite interesting how Notre Dame is still so high up on the list, and even more interesting is Texas A&M right behind them. I don't think it's a long lasting situation for A&M, though they still have a couple tough games coming up. 

Week_2b6_2b-_2bvow_2bgraph_png_medium

via lh4.googleusercontent.com

In regards to how the outlook of the resume of every team, the top 10 has set itself apart from everyone else. 15-34 are all top 25 contenders. And then there is "the rest"  which slowly progresses down until the bottom 15.

I'm adding an additional graph here, that is Oregon specific. I've been avoiding most of the Oregon-specific items here, as it's really a ranking of every team, but this is an Oregon blog. So whatever.

Oregon-chart_252c_2bweek_2b6_png_medium

via lh4.googleusercontent.com - Click to embiggen.

Here you can see how each team, and their performances have influenced Oregon's resume. This gives you a chance to see this ranking system's "memory" in action.

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Oklahoma (3.502) @ Texas (1.37) W 55-17 6.470
Temple (2.238) @ Ball State (-1.417) W 42-0 5.183
Alabama (3.995) vs. Vanderbilt (0.158) W 34-0 4.250
Southern Miss (1.985) @ Navy (-0.014) W 63-35 4.238
Boise State (3.726) @ Fresno State (-1.221) W 57-7 4.184

Red river rivalry showed a lot of people exactly what they thought in preseason. Texas isn't so good, and Oklahoma is the real deal.  Huge win for the Sooners. Also, rumored-to-be future Big East team, Temple gave some good smack down to Ball State. Oh, and Boise State was Boise State.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Rice (-1.063) vs. Memphis (-2.715) W 28-6 -0.321
North Texas (-1.803) vs. Florida Atlantic (-2.384) W 31-17 -0.135
North Carolina (1.469) vs. Louisville (-0.367) W 14-7 -0.021
Oregon State (-1.772) vs. Arizona (-1.831) W 37-27 0.065
Miami (OH) (-1.909) vs. Army (-0.689) W 35-28 0.217


Kind of a boring slate of games here. Somewhat shocking is that Oregon State is getting the bitter sweet award, but Arizona isn't very good. They still get the positive VoW, so it's still a net win.

 

No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Maryland (0.044) @ Georgia Tech (2.89) L 16-21 1.565
Miami (FL) (-0.081) @ Virginia Tech (1.64) L 35-38 0.675
Vanderbilt (0.158) @ Alabama (3.995) L 0-34 0.613
Ohio State (0.378) @ Nebraska (1.5) L 27-34 0.327
Louisville (-0.367) @ North Carolina (1.469) L 7-14 0.297


A couple of ACC games starts us off here. A pretty good loss for Maryland, as they get a pretty sizable net win.

After getting spanked by Wisconsin, Nebraska fights tOSU, and that wasn't too bad of a loss for the Buckeyes. Not the season they hoped for, but it's bound to happen with all the turnover they've had to endure. 

 

Facepalm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Middle Tennessee (-1.408) vs. Western Kentucky (-2.184) L 33-36 -4.989
Idaho (-1.989) vs. Louisiana Tech (-0.542) L 11-24 -3.753
Ball State (-1.417) vs. Temple (2.238) L 0-42 -3.697
Wyoming (-0.467) @ Utah State (0.857) L 19-63 -3.513
Kent State (-2.213) @ Northern Illinois (0.121) L 10-40 -3.397


Middle Tennessee lost to Western Kentucky, who I made fun of quite a bit a couple weeks ago. With their win, Western Kentucky isn't the worst team anymore. New Mexico decided to grab that seat this week, but Middle Tennessee had the 2nd biggest negative impact to their resume with a delta VoW of -0.659 as they drop 11 spots to the 110th worst team in the country.

 

Conference Rankings

Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Big 12 - (37-13) 1.306 -0.118 1.096
2 SEC - (47-22) 1.038 -0.057 0.857
3 Big East - (28-16) 1.047 -0.615 0.314
4 Big Ten - (44-23) 1.028 -0.601 0.262
5 Pac-12 - (36-28) 0.529 -0.220 0.181
6 ACC - (42-24) 0.752 -0.468 0.056
7 Independent - (12-11) 0.177 0.099 -0.039
8 C-USA - (30-35) -0.310 -0.235 -0.635
9 MWC - (22-19) -0.083 -0.544 -0.790
10 WAC - (16-28) -0.300 -0.397 -0.817
11 MAC - (34-43) -0.342 -0.357 -0.834
12 Sun Belt - (20-29) -0.855 -0.359 -1.337


Pac-12 keeps their slow sliding  as the Big-12 maintains their top spot.  The Sun Belt is extremely bad.

 

Pac-12 Conference Rankings

RankTeamTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Stanford - (5-0) 4.089 -1.043 2.977
2 Oregon - (4-1) 2.594 -0.402 2.060
3 Arizona State - (5-1) 2.073 -0.586 1.260
4 UCLA - (3-3) -0.588 1.250 0.369
5 Washington - (4-1) 0.995 -0.268 0.348
6 California - (3-2) 0.843 -0.825 0.001
7 USC - (4-1) 0.547 -0.441 -0.011
8 Washington State - (3-2) 1.551 -1.886 -0.137
9 Utah - (2-3) -0.303 -0.227 -0.604
10 Colorado - (1-5) -1.851 1.367 -0.954
11 Arizona - (1-5) -1.831 0.668 -1.248
12 Oregon State - (1-4) -1.772 -0.243 -1.889


Despite losing to Oregon State, Arizona still doesn't have as bad of a "body of work", thanks to in part to their difficult schedule - and Oregon State's loss to an FCS school. There are now 3 teams which have all separated themselves both from each other and from everyone else.

 

Pat Hill Award

These schools have so far had the most difficult opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing great opponents, but playing opponents that have had a high Team Value, like explosive, high octane, high-winning opponents.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
1 Tulsa - (2-3) C-USA 1.526
2 Texas A&M - (3-2) Big 12 1.379
3 Colorado - (1-5) Pac-12 1.367
4 Notre Dame - (4-2) Independent 1.352
5 Marshall - (2-4) C-USA 1.321
6 UCLA - (3-3) Pac-12 1.250
7 East Carolina - (1-4) C-USA 1.000
8 Nevada - (2-3) WAC 0.965
9 Auburn - (4-2) SEC 0.764
10 Ball State - (3-3) MAC 0.754


Tulsa's schedule is still haunting them, but here you can see how TAMU's schedule has been helping them out. They have the 2nd toughest slate of opponents, and they have a winning record.  (The same is true with Notre Dame too)

 

Bill Snyder Award

These schools have so far had the easiest opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing the weakest opponents, but playing opponents that have had a low Team Value, like low scoring teams that find themselves losing more than winning.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
120 Colorado State - (3-2) MWC -2.031
119 Washington State - (3-2) Pac-12 -1.886
118 Texas Tech - (4-1) Big 12 -1.759
117 Hawaii - (3-2) WAC -1.742
116 Houston - (6-0) C-USA -1.728
115 Cincinnati - (4-1) Big East -1.642
114 Purdue - (3-2) Big Ten -1.555
113 Wisconsin - (5-0) Big Ten -1.492
112 Tulane - (2-4) C-USA -1.474
111 UCF - (3-2) C-USA -1.400


Their in-state rivals are on the Pat Hill list, but Colorado State has the opposite problem.

 

Games to Watch/Stream/TiVo/"Acquire"

These are this week's match-ups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Michigan (2.985) @ Michigan State (2.188) 0.797 2.586
Oregon (2.594) vs. Arizona State (2.073) 0.521 2.333
Texas Tech (2.088) vs. Kansas State (1.725) 0.363 1.906
SMU (2.119) vs. UCF (1.443) 0.676 1.781
Virginia Tech (1.64) @ Wake Forest (1.512) 0.128 1.576


A good game to see if the fighting Michigan Denard Robinsons are earning all their hype, and a good match for Pac-12 positioning. If Arizona State wins, they'll probably be on cruise control for winning the Pac-12 South. This is also a potential preview for their first conference championship game.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts. I removed all the FBS vs FCS teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Wisconsin (3.775) vs. Indiana (-1.428) 5.203 1.174
Oklahoma (3.502) @ Kansas (-1.629) 5.130 0.937
Alabama (3.995) @ Ole Miss (-0.57) 4.565 1.712
Nevada (0.169) vs. New Mexico (-3.605) 3.774 -1.718
Boise State (3.726) @ Colorado State (0.079) 3.648 1.902


Whoa - Boise State is on this list?!?!?!

About the Rankings

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from 2010, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. They still ended up finishing up strong. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the rankings.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer rankings than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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