Teams that are in: 

Stanford (8-0)

Oregon (7-1)

washington (6-2)

Arizona State (6-2)

USC (6-2)

Mathematically Eliminated:

Colorado (1-8)

Mathematically Alive [team/record/remaining games]:

California (4-4) - v. WSU, v. OSU, @ Stan, @ ASU.

Washington State (3-5) - @ Cal, v. ASU, v. Utah, @ Uw.

Oregon State (2-6) - v. Stan, @ Cal, v. Uw, @ UO.

UCLA (4-4) - v. ASU, @ Utah, v. CU, @ USC.

Utah (4-4) - @ UA, v. UCLA, @ WSU, v. CU.

Arizona (2-6) - v. Utah, @ CU, @ ASU, v. ULL. 

 

What we got: 

4 teams going bowling, and 2 teams with no shot.  Of teams with a theoretical chance:

* OSU is dead.  They must win out, but 0-4 is a lot more likely.  This Beaver team is bad, and they should feel bad. 

* Arizona could have been a bowl team, but they scheduled their team and their coach into oblivion.  They now need to win out against a schedule that looks beatable, but 4-0 is most probably too heavy of a lift. 

* WSU has only themselves to blame after choking against UCLA, OSU, and SDSU. Win those and they'd already be in, but now they need 3 more wins on a pretty tough draw. So scratch WSU and probably Paul Wulff.  

* Cal has a two-game schedule - beat WSU and OSU at home over the next two weeks, and go bowling.  Lose one of those, and an awful erratic road team has to look for a win at Stanford or ASU, which is probably not happening.  Not that the continued program decline will ding recruiting - sure you'll lose a lot of real games, but you'll make up for it with all the wins you'll get playing Xbox with Tosh!

* Utah has maybe the best chance of anyone left.  All their games are winnable.  In fact, they should win at least 3.  Utes may get the last laugh when all is said and done, watching half their new grind-tested conference mates spend the holidays at home. 

* UCLA, like Cal, may be looking at a two-game schedule.  They probably lose to ASU and even more probably lose to USC, so they may need to get their two wins from the mountain schools.  Should we actually root for this, since a bowl berth may save the Weasel's job? 

So, the Pac-12 has only 4 teams qualified for bowls, with only three having a realistic chance to jump in.  Do you have faith in Maynard and Cal? Can Utah translate their competence in the OSU game to a sustained competent run? With UCLA's knack for failing to the middle, you'd think they just have to find a way.  When it all settles out, only qualifying 5 teams seems a lot more likely than 7.