FanPost

Shufelt CPU Rankings - Week 5

The ever changing landscape of college football. It's part of what makes it exciting. Just when you think you know everything, Clemson runs off with 3 top-25 wins in a row. Just as you peg LSU with being the best team in the country, Alabama makes a statement win against conference east favorite, Florida. But does that mean Alabama has the best resume this year?

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via cdn3.sbnation.com

Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 5

Rank Team Record VoW Avg VoW Delta Rank Delta
1 Alabama (5-0) 3.694 0.782 ↑ 2
2 Boise State (4-0) 3.113 0.308 ↑ 2
3 Stanford (4-0) 3.079 0.412 ↑ 2
4 Oklahoma (4-0) 2.956 0.346 ↑ 2
5 Oklahoma State (4-0) 2.914 -0.001 ↓ 3
6 LSU (5-0) 2.770 -0.192 ↓ 5
7 Michigan (5-0) 2.732 0.380 ↔ 0
8 Notre Dame (3-2) 2.295 0.516 ↑ 5
9 Texas (4-0) 2.282 0.380 ↑ 2
10 Texas A&M (2-1) 2.147 0.250 ↑ 2
11 Georgia Tech (5-0) 1.884 0.190 ↑ 4
12 Florida (4-1) 1.764 -0.253 ↓ 3
13 Wisconsin (5-0) 1.743 0.844 ↑ 14
14 Oregon (3-1) 1.679 -0.084 ↔ 0
15 Clemson (5-0) 1.508 1.135 ↑ 26
16 South Florida (4-1) 1.267 -0.910 ↓ 8
17 South Carolina (4-1) 1.241 -0.662 ↓ 7
18 West Virginia (4-1) 1.221 0.845 ↑ 22
19 Rutgers (3-1) 1.214 0.289 ↑ 6
20 North Carolina (4-1) 1.199 0.326 ↑ 8
21 Illinois (5-0) 1.127 0.021 ↔ 0
22 Nebraska (4-1) 1.119 -0.355 ↓ 6
23 Houston (5-0) 1.102 0.164 ↑ 1
24 Tennessee (3-1) 1.094 -0.047 ↓ 4
25 Cincinnati (4-1) 1.075 0.462 ↑ 6
Dropped: Penn State, Baylor, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Temple

LSU didn't have any problems with their competition, but they didn't get over the bar they set for themselves. The result is some shifting around the top. Oklahoma State's resume score was hardly impacted from the bye week, but all the other top teams improved on their score.

Big improvements within the top 25 are Clemson, Wisconsin and West Virginia, the ones on a bit of a free fall were South Florida and South Carolina after they notched their losses.


Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Alabama (3.895) @ Florida (2.017) W 38-10 6.257
Clemson (2.111) @ Virginia Tech (1.858) W 23-3 5.244
Toledo (0.403) @ Temple (1.404) W 36-13 5.225
Wisconsin (3.759) vs. Nebraska (1.591) W 48-17 4.457
Pittsburgh (0.64) vs. South Florida (1.947) W 44-17 4.447


Alabama's win over Florida so far is the most impressive to-date, and it isn't really even close. If they didn't play this week, it would have been Clemson over Virginia Tech - and the only win that would have been close would have been Toledo over Temple. After that? If you sensed the pattern, you would have guessed the 4th most impressive win to date would have been Wisconsin over Nebraska. And that pattern continues through with Pitt over USF. All 5 of these games would have been "the most impressive win" so far, and Alabama's win was head and shoulders above everyone else.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to the team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Troy (-0.815) vs. UAB (-2.544) W 24-23 -2.347
Maryland (0.256) vs. Towson (-4.643) W 28-3 -1.859
Middle Tennessee (-1.194) vs. Memphis (-2.75) W 38-31 -1.824
Virginia (0.399) vs. Idaho (-1.703) W 21-20 -1.753
Arkansas State (0.985) @ Western Kentucky (-3.296) W 26-22 -1.510


A pretty boring slate of games, to be honest. I don't think any of these really registered on anyone's radar. Troy's squeaker win over UAB is pretty bad. UAB is currently ranked 117th in my rankings.

 

No Shame in Losing Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Texas A&M (0.511) vs. Arkansas (1.481) L 38-42 0.997
Northwestern (0.906) @ Illinois (1.618) L 35-38 0.963
UCLA (-0.815) @ Stanford (4.163) L 19-45 0.943
Nevada (-0.868) @ Boise State (3.19) L 10-30 0.895
Baylor (1.886) @ Kansas State (1.9) L 35-36 0.789


Is Texas A&M cursed? Two games with big halftime leads and a total collapse in the second half for two weeks in a row. Fortunately for ATM, it was against a good Arkansas team, and they walked out with a net-win as they actually improved on their resume despite the loss.


Facepalm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Score VoW
Tulane (-0.732) @ Army (-0.618) L 6-45 -4.199
Temple (1.404) vs. Toledo (0.403) L 13-36 -4.057
Fresno State (-0.257) vs. Ole Miss (-0.57) L 28-38 -3.986
New Mexico (-3.605) vs. New Mexico State (-0.023) L 28-42 -3.690
Louisiana Tech (-1.334) vs. Hawaii (1.262) L 26-44 -3.398


GO BLACK KNIGHTS! Okay - so, Army isn't a great team. But Tulane sure made them look like one, and that's what counts.

 

Conference Rankings

Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.

Rank Conference Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 Big 12 - (32-8) 1.633 -0.453 1.039
2 SEC - (41-17) 1.203 -0.214 0.803
3 Big East - (25-13) 1.102 -0.743 0.219
4 Big Ten - (39-18) 1.149 -0.780 0.210
5 Pac-12 - (31-23) 0.636 -0.279 0.201
6 Independent - (10-9) 0.331 0.265 0.191
7 ACC - (36-20) 0.863 -0.610 -0.025
8 MWC - (20-15) 0.157 -0.658 -0.754
9 C-USA - (26-30) -0.368 -0.336 -0.782
10 WAC - (13-25) -0.449 -0.295 -0.877
11 MAC - (28-36) -0.378 -0.392 -0.915
12 Sun Belt - (15-25) -1.111 -0.142 -1.372


Despite the ADs of the Big 12 scrambling to apply epoxy in Dan Beebe's created fault-lines, they're still shown to be the best conference so far. It's really them and the SEC, everyone else is kind of "meh" until you get to the Non-AQ conferences, who are really bad.

 

Pac-12 Conference Rankings

Rank Team Team VAvg Opp VAvg VoW Avg
1 Stanford - (4-0) 4.163 -0.880 3.079
2 Oregon - (3-1) 2.546 -0.979 1.679
3 Washington - (4-1) 0.995 0.125 0.644
4 Arizona State - (4-1) 1.653 -0.803 0.613
5 UCLA - (2-3) -0.815 1.371 0.317
6 California - (3-1) 1.750 -1.342 0.315
7 Washington State - (3-1) 2.076 -1.823 0.269
8 USC - (4-1) 0.547 -0.406 -0.049
9 Utah - (2-2) 0.664 -0.892 -0.209
10 Colorado - (1-4) -1.463 1.166 -0.876
11 Arizona - (1-4) -1.920 1.129 -0.891
12 Oregon State - (0-4) -2.561 -0.011 -2.474

 

Stanford, Oregon - every one else - and then Oregon State. Arizona hasn't quite had the numbers to make up for their schedule yet, but we'll get to see if they really belong this low or not soon.

 

Pat Hill Award

These schools have so far had the most difficult opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing great opponents, but playing opponents that have had a high Team Value, like explosive, high octane, high-winning opponents.

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
1 Nevada - (1-3) WAC 2.055
2 Rice - (1-3) C-USA 1.614
3 Notre Dame - (3-2) Independent 1.532
4 Florida Atlantic - (0-4) Sun Belt 1.514
5 UCLA - (2-3) Pac-12 1.371
6 Marshall - (2-3) C-USA 1.288
7 Texas A&M - (2-2) Big 12 1.232
8 Tulsa - (2-3) C-USA 1.201
9 Colorado - (1-4) Pac-12 1.166
10 Arizona - (1-4) Pac-12 1.129


Nevada's schedule has been quite rough when you look at it. Boise State, Texas Tech, Oregon. Their only gimme win so far has been San Jose State. That's not an easy slate. Oddly enough, San Jose State is also UCLA's first win too. Their schedule hasn't been too kind either.


Bill Snyder Award

These schools have so far had the easiest opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing the weakest opponents, but playing opponents that have had a low Team Value, like low scoring teams that find themselves losing more than winning.

Rank Team (Record) Conference Opp VAvg
120 Texas Tech - (4-0) Big 12 -2.548
119 Colorado State - (3-2) MWC -2.076
118 Houston - (5-0) C-USA -1.938
117 Washington State - (3-1) Pac-12 -1.823
116 Louisville - (2-2) Big East -1.808
115 Southern Miss - (4-1) C-USA -1.781
114 Hawaii - (3-2) WAC -1.777
113 Wake Forest - (3-1) ACC -1.753
112 Wisconsin - (5-0) Big Ten -1.707
111 Tulane - (2-3) C-USA -1.706


Texas Tech is riding this one out.  We get our first showing of a sub-.500 team in here too. Welcome, Tulane. Your schedule sucks!


Games to Watch/Stream/TiVo/"Acquire"

These are this week's match-ups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Team VAvg Diff Team VAvg Avg
Texas (3.05) vs. Oklahoma (3.039) 0.011 3.045
Oregon (2.546) vs. California (1.75) 0.797 2.148
Penn State (1.546) vs. Iowa (1.518) 0.027 1.532
Kansas State (1.9) vs. Missouri (1.027) 0.874 1.463
Wake Forest (1.689) vs. Florida State (1.133) 0.557 1.411


Red River Rivalry is slated to be a close game. We'll get to see if Texas has rebounded and if Oklahoma is what everyone has pinned them to be. This game could tell a lot about the Big-12 overall, too.

Cal's visit to Autzen could also end up being a good game, but there is a little more discrepancy between the two teams than Texas and Oklahoma.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts. I removed all the FBS vs FCS teams.

Team (Team VAvg) Opp (Team VAvg) Team VAvg Diff Team VAvg Avg
Stanford (4.163) vs. Colorado (-1.463) 5.627 1.350
Houston (2.959) vs. East Carolina (-1.964) 4.923 0.497
Oklahoma State (3.033) vs. Kansas (-1.076) 4.110 0.978
Clemson (2.111) vs. Boston College (-1.511) 3.622 0.300
Boise State (3.19) @ Fresno State (-0.257) 3.447 1.467

 

Here we go. Clemson has all the momentum and an inferior opponent is visiting Death Valley. Everyone is going to have them picked to win. Isn't this where they usually lose?

 

About the Rankings

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from 2010, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. They still ended up finishing up strong. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the rankings.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer rankings than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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