How We Go: Run, run, and run some more

by jtlight on Nov 23, 2011 9:31 AM PST in Oregon Ducks Football

OSU has been powerless to stop the Oregon running attack in recent years.

The Oregon Ducks are taking on the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen for the annual Civil War this weekend. The two teams come in on very divergent paths. Oregon is shooting for their 3rd straight conference title, and 4th straight Civil War win. OSU is battling for pride, as they will be sitting on their couches once again during bowl season.

Over the last few meetings, Oregon State has been unable to contain Oregon's offense, specifcally the running game. In the last 3 meetings, Oregon has gained 694, 489, and 491 yards. On the ground, those numbers are 385, 288, and 346. Over those 3 games, the Ducks have averaged 50 carries per game, at 6.8 yards per carry.

Unfortunately for the Beavs, the 2011 squad is not a good team, and has a poor rushing defense. In previous years, the Beavers have had an average rushing defense, consistently in the middle of the pack in rushing defense. This year, the Beavs are 11th in rushing defense (in conference play), and are giving up 4.68 yards per carry. Advanced statistic don't paint a prettier picture. The Beavs ranked 73rd in the country in Rushing S&P+.

They are now tasked with stopping the top rushing attack in the Pac-12, if not the country. They boast the top stable of running backs, as well as (arguably) the best running back in the country in LaMichael James, even though he's been dinged up.

Simply put, I don't see any way that OSU can slow down the Ducks. They boast a good pass rush, but that is due to quick and undersized defensive ends, which will be rendered almost useless by Oregon's spread attack.

OSU's passing defense is improved, and boast two strong players in Jordan Poyer and Lance Mitchell. But I doubt they will have the ability to play a significant role in the game. The Ducks can use their rushing attack to move down the field, and gain chunks through play-action over the middle.

Just looking at the two teams, this game is a significant mismatch. Oregon is four touchdown favorites for a lot of good reasons. But when Oregon has the ball, Oregon's strength matches up with OSU's weakness, and the Ducks should be able to exploit that. They should move the ball on the ground, in chunks and consistently. If the Ducks execute (and as we saw against USC, that could quickly become a big if), there is little reason they shouldn't run for another 300+ yards on the ground.

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I know on paper we should dominate

but OS having nothing to lose scares me a little. I hope we go up big early, otherwise I’m going to be a nervous wreck.

KU fans-how I hate thee!

by quack785 on Nov 23, 2011 9:37 AM PST reply actions

Agreed

I don’t know why but this somewhat scares me. It shouldn’t. But it does.

by kalon on Nov 23, 2011 9:56 AM PST up reply actions

Doesn't scare me one bit, frankly.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 23, 2011 11:49 AM PST up reply actions

It just seems we have a habit of letting teams hang around

for much longer than they should, before going on a classic 3rd quarter barrage. I’d just like it for once if we got up big early, and not let the Bavers think they have a chance.

KU fans-how I hate thee!

by quack785 on Nov 23, 2011 2:32 PM PST up reply actions

People seem to forget that we've been walking around with a giant target on our backs for a few years now.

We take the best shot from every team we play. There’s a reason many of our games seem “tougher than they should be.”

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 23, 2011 5:09 PM PST up reply actions

I haven't forgotten that...

But it seems like we have the habit of slow starts lately. I’d like to see more scores, or at least more sustain drives—- and less 3 and outs in the first quarter, that’s all. Just like I said after the UW game that having a sketchy kicker was going to come back and bite us, this habit of letting less-talented teams hang around for a half or so could come back to haunt us.

KU fans-how I hate thee!

by quack785 on Nov 23, 2011 6:35 PM PST up reply actions

4 touchdowns is ridiculous

Sure, the Ducks have the potential to win by that much, but Kelly has really been slowing down the pace of the offense when the Ducks are up by two or more scores in the second half.

by jfwells on Nov 23, 2011 10:23 AM PST reply actions

Agreed

If Mannion’s having a good day, OSU will score some points. And Chip may take his foot off the gas, since there are no style points to play for. The spread seems heavy to me. Not because the Ducks couldn’t win by more than four TD’s if they wanted to do, but past a certain point, they don’t need to keep pouring it on.

by Sahr on Nov 23, 2011 11:03 AM PST up reply actions

I don't think they will in this game

Oregon State has less talent than we’ve seen them have in a very long time.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Nov 23, 2011 11:03 AM PST up reply actions

Yes.

It seems like this season more than last, he does take his foot off the gas somewhat early.

I'm super thanks for asking! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPNna_f4P4Y

by CaDuck on Nov 23, 2011 11:18 AM PST up reply actions

When he can

Its one thing to talk your foot off the gas vs. Colorado, another to do it vs. say a Stanford team that can score points quickly.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Nov 23, 2011 11:30 AM PST up reply actions

The reason he slowed the tempo against UW and Stanford is that they needed time to score.

He denied them that time. Stanford turned into a rout almost by accident because of their sudden propensity for derpitude (caused in part by our defense, to be sure). He could have boatraced UW if he had felt like it but chose to grind the clock and take away the time they needed to put together scoring drives.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 23, 2011 11:53 AM PST up reply actions

I blame...

…the stupid “Boy Band” tour with all the other coaches. He spends a weekend with them back at ESPN and now they are all buddy-buddy, and Sark is his best pal so he won’t embarrass the Huskies. Chip has already talked about how Riley is the nicest guy in coaching – won’t want to run it up on him. The only way I see it getting to 4 TDs is if there are two Pick-6es near the end of the game.

by jfwells on Nov 23, 2011 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

If the O and D are playing at peak levels, we can "accidentally" win by 4 scores.

But I don’t see Chip “running it up” if that doesn’t happen.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 23, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions

I see CK going for the jugular early to erase any doubt.

I think he’d rather get it over with as quickly as possible and get his starters on the bench to minimize injury risk.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 23, 2011 11:50 AM PST up reply actions

We'll basically know our P12 title game opponnet before kickoff too

Sorry but I doubt UCLA beats USC.

"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely

by skywaker9 on Nov 23, 2011 11:59 AM PST up reply actions

So it's essentially ASU with the driver's seat?

If they win they go regardless of Utah?

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 23, 2011 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

UCLA is technically in the drivers seat.

If they win they go. If UCLA loses, ASU goes with a W regardless of what Utah does. If UCLA and ASU lose, and Utah wins, then Utah goes. At least that’s the way I understand it…

KU fans-how I hate thee!

by quack785 on Nov 23, 2011 2:36 PM PST up reply actions

close

If UCLA loses and ASU wins, ASU needs a Utah win. If UCLA and ASU are in a two-way tie, UCLA goes because of the head-to-head win. ASU needs Utah to be in the mix to force the complicated three-way tiebreak, which they would win.

Utah is not losing to Colorado though, so you’re essentially right.

by Twith on Nov 23, 2011 3:39 PM PST up reply actions

Never underestimate the beavers

I have watched duck football since way back in the day (1948) and I’ll tell you right now, that when a team is figured as down and out, they can be a dangerous team. I doubt that the ducks will cave on this game. For one thing they are coming off a loss, which must make OSU have the warm and fuzzy’s all over. The ducks know what is at stake. They all watch Tv, can text their friends, eat with their friends, attend classes with their fellow students, man can twitter. So sure, they will practice hard this week knowing that the division championship is at stake, and ultimately the Rose Bowl. There will be no let down, count on it. The ducks have too many horses (Even USC found that out) Go Ducks, win convincingly.

by luckaduck on Nov 23, 2011 11:02 AM PST reply actions