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How We Stop: Oregon doesn't need to shut down washington's offense, only contain them

Obviously, I'm not one that likes to dish out superlatives to anything related to the university of washington.  That said, there is one undeniable truth that pains me.

washington's offense is really, really good.

uw's offense ranks ninth in the country in yards per play, at 6.6.  Only Stanford and Oregon rank higher in the conference at 7.2 each.  washington is balanced, a team that can gash you through the air or on the ground.  They average almost 36 points per game, and have stars everywhere on the offensive side of the fooball:  Chris Polk at RB, Keith Price at QB, Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and Kaisen Williams at WR, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins at TE.  Every player I just mentioned will be playing on Sundays at some point in the near future.

Oregon isn't going to stop the husky offense.  That said, the thing you have to feel good about as a Duck fan is that Oregon doesn't really have to.  Oregon's offense is better than washington's, yes, but the key to the game is that Oregon defense is good while washington's is one of the worst in the country.

Oregon gives up 4.8 yards per play.  Washington 6.0.  Oregon doesn't have to shut the huskies.  They only have to get enough stops and hold them to 3 enough times to outscore them. 

Star-divide

This is the most competent offense Oregon has faced all season, and there are many scenarios in which the Ducks could lose this game.  People have pointed to the pass defense against Washington State, but having Anthony Gildon back really makes me feel good about that aspect of the defense.

There are a couple of things that I want to key in on:

The first is the short to intermediate passing game for washington.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins is among the best tight ends in the country, and Chris Polk is very good at catching the ball out of the backfield.  Josh Kaddu, Michael Clay, and Boseko Lokombo have all been very good when asked to go into coverage, and they're going to have to do a lot of that game.  I think this will be the biggest key to limiting the washington passing game as Anthony Gildon and Terrance Mitchell have been fairly solid, and especially because uw doesn't have a great offensive line and Keith Price won't have all day to throw.  uw gives up two sacks a game, and some of the better defenses washington has played have really beaten Keith Price up. 

The other key is in the red zone.  uw converts red zone opportunities into touchdowns at the second highest clip in the conference.  Oregon is second best as turning those into field goals or turnovers.  washington moves the ball well and will get their opporunities in the red zone, but if Oregon can turn a fair amount of those into field goal attempts, it bodes well for the Ducks.  Field goals don't beat Oregon.

As was said above, uw averages 36 points per game.  If Oregon can contain the intermediate passing game and force uw into a few field goal attempts, Oregon has a great shot to hold them below that.  If they do, I don't feel good about the husky defense being able to hold down Oregon's offense.

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Our defense will be tested the next 3 weeks

Their performance this week will set the tone for the rest of the month. I’d love to see a strong defensive performance that limits Uw’s scoring opportunities, and leaves them kicking field goals.

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Nov 3, 2011 2:22 PM PDT reply actions  

My friend Karl sent out a request for a flag last night to our circle of friends. I didn't have a flag & told him so, here's his request:
Hey Duck fans,
 I am looking to see if anyone has a Duck banner or flag that I can wave on the Duck yacht we are tailgating on Saturday night from Lake Union. We can normally see it on TV when they show the boats outside the stadium. Let me know if you have one I can fly…I can pick it up on Thursday….Thanks and GO DUCKS..

Today I received this reply which had been sent in reply be another friend:

Karl, I don’t have one of those but you can borrow my BURN IN HELL YOU PURPLE ANTICHRIST MOTHER F#CKERS! banner if you want.
Mark

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 3, 2011 3:34 PM PDT reply actions  

Who? Why?

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 3, 2011 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Wha?"

/howmidoin?

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 4, 2011 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice. I wonder if they sell them in bulk.

"Last time I checked, there is no ‘Hall of Average.’ " Chip Kelly

by PondJunky on Nov 3, 2011 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

they do, same place you get the 12-0 t-shirts

Last PAC-12 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington

by DAWGFATHER91 on Nov 3, 2011 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly right.

With any piece of Duck merchandise comes the implied sentiments expressed above.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 3, 2011 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

:)

Did you get a 12-0 t-shirt? you can tell me, We’re all friends here.

Last PAC-12 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington

by DAWGFATHER91 on Nov 3, 2011 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Of course, three of them.

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 3, 2011 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd for telling the truth!!

Last PAC-12 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington

by DAWGFATHER91 on Nov 3, 2011 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did you get a 12-0 t-shirt? you can tell me, We’re all friends here.

Did you buy an 0-12 Tee Shirt?

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 3, 2011 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

We could get you one too...

It probably wouldn’t be in fashion now though. It would be a hypercolor shirt or it would have the puffy paints.

by win_the_day on Nov 3, 2011 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

You realize those shirts were made right after Oregon beat OSU, right?

You realize it’s still applicable, and isn’t sold with omission of the loss, right?

It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-W-O-O-Z-Y".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck

by JShufelt on Nov 4, 2011 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Josh Kaddu, Michael Clay, and Boseko Lokombo

I agree: these three will be the key to our defense in this game-and the next one too.

by ursula on Nov 3, 2011 6:38 PM PDT reply actions  

The big stat for UW?
  1. in the nation in red zone TD%. Wisconsin is 1. Stanford is 6, Oregon is 9. If you can hold us to threes, you’ll obviously win big.

Interestingly, Ore and Stan both give up opponent TDs in the red zone 50 % of the time. UW is a little behind at 57%. I think your 3’s/7’s observation is the key stat.

Washington’s D has been bad, but it’s stats are skewed by the Neb and Stan games. The tails of the bell curves are long and the red zone is where the truth will be played out.

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon

by Gekko Mojo on Nov 3, 2011 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

That should read # 2 in the %

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon

by Gekko Mojo on Nov 3, 2011 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Therein lies the rub, no?
Washington’s D has been bad, but it’s stats are skewed by the Neb and Stan games.

The 2 best offenses you’ve played so far. OTOH UW represents possibly the best offense we’ve faced as yet this year.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 3, 2011 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not defending the D...

…but it is young and while it has made some outrageously bad mistakes, it has also toughened up and made great plays. You can’t assume that you will be facing an overmatched group of athletes who will get beat every play, but you can count on a handful of mistakes that lead to big plays

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon

by Gekko Mojo on Nov 3, 2011 8:38 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

The teams that play the national runners-up ALWAYS come in with an attitude...perhaps the fuskies will, too?

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 4, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

The huskies will be fired up.

Their fans are fired up, last game in husky stadium for a while, 1991 team coming back etc. I think the biggest reason is that it will have been 2926 days since they beat us. Plus we’ll be coming in ranked #8 in the BCS.

Their’s is a program looking for a defining moment that isn’t from the Don James era. They will be fired up. I just hope we can come out of this with a win and no injuries. Games like this scare me, because no matter what the coaches say, this is a huge game, and the hitting will be harder.

"What the hell was that?"
"Spaceball One, they've gone to plaid!"

by QuackinAK on Nov 4, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Some fun Oregon facts

1. Chip Kelly is 22 – 1 in Conference Play as Head Coach.
2. Oregon has won 17 consecutive conference games since its loss to Stanford on Nov 7, 2009.

Just something to chew on, ponder, ruminate as you go about your Duck fan day…

Oregon loves you, Chip Kelly!

by gamedaytribe on Nov 3, 2011 7:38 PM PDT reply actions  

You're gonna 'chew your own ass out?'

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 4, 2011 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

fuskie offense is over rated.

by OfficerCosta on Nov 3, 2011 7:50 PM PDT reply actions  

kinda like the Oregon D?

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon

by Gekko Mojo on Nov 3, 2011 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

then i think our over rated offense should do just fine

Last PAC-12 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington

by DAWGFATHER91 on Nov 3, 2011 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

As long as it's not quite "fine" enough, that's OK with me.

But as mentioned above, it’s the 3’s/7’s thing. Our D tends to stiffen up near the goal line and in the second half. Even one FG in lieu of a TD could well be enough. Numbers aside, I doubt you’ll find many here at ATQ who will say our D is => last year’s.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 3, 2011 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Couldn't agree with you more

I do think it will come down down to who’s kicker is out on the field more, each coach says the same thing, of course the weather will be a stromg factor this Saturday so even FG’s might be suspect. Whoever’s D holds to the bend don’t break should be the deciding factor

Last PAC-12 Rose Bowl winner not named USC....Washington

by DAWGFATHER91 on Nov 3, 2011 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

poeple think it's overrated because

some folks (particularly some of those guys from up north) think the stats are skewed because Oregon hasn’t “played anybody,” other than LSU and Arizona State. Therefore, overrated. I don’t agree with that sentiment, but we will definitely find out this weekend, and in the weekends to come, how good the Oregon D is as keeping points off the scoreboard.

Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra

by Randall Floyd on Nov 4, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think ppilot's point

Is that none of the talking heads rate Oregon’s D as any good. Most of us think the D has underachieved on a routine basis this year. Advanced stats suggest otherwise (we are 12th in S&P as of this week), but the Oregon talking points remain gimmick offense, fraud defense.

Now with mustache guarantee!

by HoodRiverDuck on Nov 4, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

you guys really haven't taken that many points

what sucks is that garbage time counts too… unfortunately.

Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra

by Randall Floyd on Nov 4, 2011 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fewest number (9) of TD passes thrown against us in the conference. That mean anything?

"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY

by Famous Duck on Nov 4, 2011 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

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