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The Countdown: Hate Week culminates in the most competitive Uncivil War in years; can the huskies pull the upset?

Oregon is really good at football. And, thanks to some sort of voodoo witchcraft by Steve Sarkisian, washington is also good at football. So, for the first time since before Ty Willingham yanked down his britches and took a giant fudgie all over the program, the Oregon-washington game should prove to be a classic. Stepping onto the field Saturday will be two of the most dynamic offenses in the country, and two inconsistent defenses that will have to live on the edge of reckless in order to stop them. Oregon comes in as the heavy favorite, even as husky Stadium, but this is in no way a game the Ducks should take lightly. Let's take a look at the factors that could swing the game for either team.

The Five Reasons why Oregon will beat Washington

1. Oregon is the more talented team - As I stated before, both teams offenses are better than the defenses they will be facing. But both of Oregon's units, offensive and defensive, are better than washington's. The stats, both common (Uw's D gives up over 50% of third downs, Oregon's O averages 13 more ppg than the huskies) and super-nerdy (see jtlight's How We Go), back it up. 

2. The Ducks are healthy - LaMichael James' robot elbow is through beta testing. Darron Thomas' knee has had two weeks to recuperate. A beat-up Oregon offense managed to put up 88 points in the last two games. It'll be nice to see the Ducks at full strength once again. 

3. The Ducks D is just hitting their stride - Oregon's defense gets a bum rap much of the time. They face more plays than any other defense in the country. They give up lots of yards as a result. But where Oregon's defense has their strength is on the scoreboard. The Ducks rank 33rd in the country, allowing 23 points per game. But that number drops to 20.6 per game in Pac-12 play, and 18 points per game in their last four. The Duck D has a knack for knuckling down in the red zone and turning 7's into 3's. They face their biggest test of the season in the huskies, who have one of the best red zone offenses in all of college football.

4. We're a big bunch of jerks who like to ruin a good time - washington hasn't won in seven years. This is the last game at husky Stadium before it undergoes renovation. The neighborly thing to do would be to throw them a bone. But the Ducks are not neighborly. Oregon wants nothing more than to stroll into Seattle, stomp all over the purple-shirted pansy-asses, and head back down the road to get ready for Stanford. And they can do it. 

5. Oregon's rushing attack vs. washington's run defense - With LMJ back healthy, KJB coming off of consecutive 100 yard games, and DAT busy being an ungodly freak of nature with a football in his hand. Against a washington run defense that ranks 8th in the Pac-12 in yards/carry allowed, this trio along with a two-legged Darron Thomas should pick the husky D apart.

After the jump, a look at why this could be the end of some husky woes...

Star-divide

Are you kidding? This is Hate Week! You think I'm gonna sit here and write about why washington will beat Oregon? You crazy. You real crazy. 

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No......by most statistical measure Oregon is one tier above Washington on offense.

On defense, the Huskies will have to bring the 1991 team through a time machine because they are absolutely terrible. Bottom line if Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times, then this game will be like prior years.

by ppilot on Nov 4, 2011 12:17 PM PDT reply actions  

there are more scenarios than just turnovers that could factor into the outcome...

… the Huskies have put up very good Run D stats at home this year. They are the second best team in the nation in turning red zone trips into TDs. They have one of the most balanced run/pass teams in the nation. The weather looks like it could favor the Huskies style of play if the turf gets slick.

Before our young players melted down under a flurry of special teams gaffes last year, our D competed pretty well with your offense. There is clearly still a gap, but not so great that only TO’s can spur an upset.

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon

by Gekko Mojo on Nov 4, 2011 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Only team that you’ve faced in the top 100 in rushing yards at home is Cal & they are ranked 80th, it’s going to be a little different facing our ground attack

by The Legend on Nov 4, 2011 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Honestly. it's tough year to gauge rushing defenses but the ones you've faced at home are abysmal

As to your second point, isn’t blowing the opposing team out in the second half Oregon’s MO?

by ppilot on Nov 4, 2011 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Husky Stadium goodbye motivation

Yeah, I am not buying it. Who really cares. It is just a renovation job, they will be back it two years and in the meantime the get to play in a much nicer facility with much better sightlines. Looking at Cal’s last game before Memorial Stadium went under the knife they were inspired to a 13-16 loss to ashington. But I hope the puppies come out hyped, blow a lot of energy and then wilt when the 3rd comes around.

by DCDuck on Nov 4, 2011 12:21 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm pretty sure this is what will happen.

It’ll be close (and surprisingly low scoring) 17-13 or something like that. Then the 3rd qtr. we unload all over them and win 42-21 . In other words, a typical Oregon game.

"What the hell was that?"
"Spaceball One, they've gone to plaid!"

by QuackinAK on Nov 4, 2011 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

But I hope the puppies come out hyped, blow a lot of energy and then wilt when the 3rd comes around.

I was thinking about this too, all of these “motivational factors” to the game like the looming renovation, don james being there, the 91 teams being there, etc. means the huskies will be pumping themselves up and jumping around before the game, expending a lot of energy that they will need later in the game

by echo31 on Nov 4, 2011 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cal was defending Memorial Stadium

one week after getting blown away in the Big Game. They weren’t playing with passion. The Dawgs should be.

While it is just a renovation, this is a big game for the UW Juniors and Seniors who won’t play another game in Husky Stadium. There aren’t that many, but the ones that will be out there should be fired up.

by Missonary Warthog on Nov 5, 2011 1:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

A loud Stade Fusk shouldn't have much of an effect on this team.

From the Desert Miracle in ’09 through ’furd and Cal etc in ’10 and onto the BCSNCG, members of this team have seen enough hostile and tight games that the whelp crowd should be a non-factor to them. It might fire up the purple pups, but that usually wears off after the first series anyway.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 4, 2011 12:32 PM PDT reply actions  

brothers, I don't feel near so confident as most my fellow feathered friends

If we’re off and they’re on, it could be horrible.

I do not want this to be the year. GO DUCKS

scrappy

by Honka Playboy on Nov 4, 2011 12:49 PM PDT reply actions  

The next three games on the schedule are far more loseable than we've grown accustomed to.

I’ve been dreading this stretch since the schedule was put out. However, I’m strangely unpanicked about it. We should win. Place your faith in Vegas, my son. We’re two-TD road favorites.

Now with mustache guarantee!

by HoodRiverDuck on Nov 4, 2011 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love that we’re talking about this game as “more loseable” when we’re a 16 point favorite, and win this game 80+% of the time.

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Nov 4, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Our panicometer has needed serious recalibration the past two years.

I can’t get mine to budge past Full Sail Pale Ale.

Now with mustache guarantee!

by HoodRiverDuck on Nov 4, 2011 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m around an Amber myself.

It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-W-O-O-Z-Y".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck

by JShufelt on Nov 4, 2011 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m feeling Kolsch. I think DT and LMJ will bring back that malty goodness that we’ve come to know and love from our ducks.

by BrewDuck on Nov 4, 2011 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, but honestly,

hasn’t the season been pretty boring up until this point? I’m glad most teams don’t pose a threat, but I do miss the heightened level of expectation.

My parents believed in me.

by flyduckfly on Nov 4, 2011 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't see how we score less than 40 Pts in this game.

We turned the ball over 4 times against LSU and still scored 27?

I don’t really feel too worried about this game.

by skyo12 on Nov 4, 2011 4:35 PM PDT reply actions  

Good afternoon.....and I hate the malamutes..er fuskies....er whatever!

Anyone think the weather could be a factor in this game? I used to cringe at the thought of us playing in the rain but lately we have fared well. In fact I think it’s to the advantage of our smaller and quicker guys like DAT and LMJ (even if hes technically a fatty fat fat).
Perhaps a tornado or tsunami might hurt us but I’m confident we’ll take care of business up north.

Grrrrrrrrrwwwaaaaawwaaaaaaaa Ducks!

by Chewbacca5000 on Nov 4, 2011 5:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Good afternoon.....and I hate the malamutes..er fuskies....er whatever!

Anyone think the weather could be a factor in this game? I used to cringe at the thought of us playing in the rain but lately we have fared well. In fact I think it’s to the advantage of our smaller and quicker guys like DAT and LMJ (even if hes technically a fatty fat fat).
Perhaps a tornado or tsunami might hurt us but I’m confident we’ll take care of business up north.

Grrrrrrrrrwwwaaaaawwaaaaaaaa Ducks!

by Chewbacca5000 on Nov 4, 2011 5:10 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm erring on the side of never trusting that our team on the road to come out in feast and not in famine.

Even the games where we’ve kicked the Huskies’ ass the past few years we’ve started slowly and really given them much more hope than we needed to in the first half.

Things like that.

by qrsouther on Nov 4, 2011 8:13 PM PDT reply actions  

Hate the idea of starting slowly in this game.

I have a feeling the Ducks have been loading up for this game, and this stretch run. But it of course is just a feeling.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Nov 4, 2011 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

For Washington week

Perfect game for I hate Wishington week
Kill the dawg from duck hunt:

by NOLADuck on Nov 4, 2011 9:03 PM PDT reply actions  

8 STR8!!!

GO DUCKS!!!!

"Trick or Treat is not just some remark you chant idly like the Lord's Prayer, it's a social contract."
-Bart Simpson

by vegasduck on Nov 5, 2011 2:32 AM PDT reply actions  

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