2011 Oregon Football: Measuring the Expectations of the Oregon Fans
by JShufelt on Jun 27, 2011 1:09 PM PDT
Email
PrintWith the Ted Miller link and discussions regarding which Pac-10/12 team will regress. Oregon is the top target of the conference and after making the national championship game, the only way to really "progress" is to win the national championship, regress would be failure to make the National Championship game.. Personally, I find this to be an unrealistic expectation. Winning the conference is difficult enough, but if Oregon were to win less than 10 games, would the season be a disappointment? The only way to really figure that out isn't to let columnists tell you what is a disappointing season, but to figure what Oregon fans actually expect. Being the cold and calculated person I am, the only way I can see to answer this question is with mathematics.
Now don't fret. I'll do the actual "math stuff" myself, but I need your input. I want your honest opinion on the probability of Oregon winning each game. With 100% being no chance of losing, and 0% being no chance of winning. Be as precises as you feel necessary, I just want you to be honest.
Why is this metric different from other predictions? Well first of all, great question. You have a brilliant mind. Secondly, the math works out slightly differently. When you say Oregon will go 11-2 with losses to Stanford and LSU, you're looking applying 0% and 100% probabilities, but if you think the chance of Oregon is beating LSU is about 50%, and the chance of Stanford is about 50%, you're saying the probability of Oregon going 1-1 is the most likely outcome.
Now, to give credit where credit is due, this idea originates from Tomahawk Nation, from over 2 years ago. This has been followed up by California Golden Blogs as well.
In the spirit of the blog poll, and SHUFELT poll, I'll likely call out the extra curricular extremities, if I have the time available.
I don't think this is a predictive model, but I do think it can help give realistic feedback of what Oregon's Fans expect.
With that said, please provide your probabilities for each game in the form below:
EDIT: Apparently Google Doc forms can't be embedded in fanposts. The link can be found Here. Here. Here.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.
83 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Weird… the form was showing up in the preview, but not after it’s been published…
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
You should change it and add home and away to each game
that would be very helpful
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
Although it isn’t technically your idea, it’s a great idea. When will we know the results of the poll?
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Jun 27, 2011 3:35 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Sometime next week.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
whoa whoa whoa
You never said there was a time limit to this thing. I have to be done by next week?
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
TWSS
Our Acrobatics & Tumbling team can beat up your Acrobatics & Tumbling team.
Addicted to Quack, where Matt Daddy can't fall asleep unless a grown man in drag sings "Daisy Bell" to him.
by Takimoto on Jun 27, 2011 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
That is one of the best placed TWSS ever.
"What the hell was that?"
"Spaceball One, they've gone to plaid!"
My answers:
LSU (Neutral Location)? 50
Nevada? 80
Missouri State? 100
@ Arizona? 75
California? 80
Arizona State? 70
@ Colorado? 85
Washington State? 90
@ Washington? 80
@ Stanford? 60
USC? 65
Oregon State? 80
Pac-12 Championship? 75
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
80 for Nevada? Seems low. I’m pretty close to all of your other picks.
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Jun 27, 2011 3:58 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Pretty similar as well
I was torn on @Stanford, if they are as good as last year that will be a very losable game, I went with 99 for mizz st, anything is possible.
by OregonNYC on Jun 27, 2011 4:58 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think 100 is a valid answer no matter the competition
That would mean there is 0% chance of a loss. If our two top qbs and two rbs went down we could lose even to mzu. That could happen once in 100 games.
by OregonNYC on Jun 27, 2011 7:50 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
What you're saying...
is that if Missouri State has obtained a complete technical readout of Oregon’s offense, it is possible, however unlikely, that they might find a weakness and exploit it?
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
"If you don't tell him what he wants to hear, he's going to find you out. And when he does, they're going to tear your head off and throw your BODY OUT OF AN AIRLOCK!" - Number Six, "Bastille Day"
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2011 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
The plans you refer to will soon be back in our hands.
Our Acrobatics & Tumbling team can beat up your Acrobatics & Tumbling team.
Addicted to Quack, where Matt Daddy can't fall asleep unless a grown man in drag sings "Daisy Bell" to him.
by Takimoto on Jun 29, 2011 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's pretty good...
Except I’m not sure 100% is technically valid. the 80% vs Cal seems a bit optimistic given the trouble their D gave you guys last year. I think they have a better chance of beating you than my Dawgs do despite home field. Quibbles.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jun 27, 2011 5:31 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
A somewhat valid point, but I would say year-to-year results aren’t always valid. We demolished Cal the previous year by like… a billion to two.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
42-3
Speaking of that game, Ed Dickson just scored another touchdown.
Our Acrobatics & Tumbling team can beat up your Acrobatics & Tumbling team.
Addicted to Quack, where Matt Daddy can't fall asleep unless a grown man in drag sings "Daisy Bell" to him.
HOW can that be????? They were # 6 in the country. # 1 offense. # 1 rusher. Are your sure?
Masoli hadn’t thrown a TD pass all season.
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
John Canzano still can't see the Ducks winning 6 games in 2009
Unversity of Oregon, Class of 2006. Currently spreading the Duck love in Ann Arbor, MI.
Flagged for spelling of Clownzano And flagged again for considering the use of ANY first name and
that;s a good reminder of his flaccid opinion.
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
by Famous Duck on Jun 27, 2011 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I already forgot my picks, but this is what I think I did.
LSU- 40
Nevada- 95
Mizz. St.- 99
UA- 80
Cal- 85
ASU- 65 (or maybe I said 70. Not sure)
CU- 90
WSU- 95
UW- 80 (or 85)
Furd- 55
USC- 70
OSU- 85
P12 CG- 50
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Jun 27, 2011 5:24 PM PDT reply actions
Close. This is what you put down.
ASU – 65
UW – 80
USC – 65
P12 CG – 55
I can update them if you want.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
Okay, so I was 5 off on two of them.
No, the ones I entered are fine.
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Jun 27, 2011 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
The only prediction that matters
OSU – 65.38%
Our Acrobatics & Tumbling team can beat up your Acrobatics & Tumbling team.
Addicted to Quack, where Matt Daddy can't fall asleep unless a grown man in drag sings "Daisy Bell" to him.
by Takimoto on Jun 27, 2011 5:33 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Mine also close, that is to say, not exact:
LSU 72
NEV 92
MSU 99
UoA 84
CAL 81
ASU 78
COL 94
WSU 91
WAH 88
STA 74
USC 86
OSU 93
PAC12 75
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
Mine
… LSU (Neutral Location)? * Give any number between 0 and 100
48.9
… Nevada? *
98.34
… MIssouri State? *
99.999999
… @ Arizona? *
86.41
… California? *
92.65
… Arizona State? *
81.23
… @ Colorado? *
90.75
… Washington State? *
84.33
… @ Washington? *
88.67
… @ Stanford? *
72.1194
… USC? *
79.8
… Pac-12 Championship? *
64.20
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
I like the 72.1194.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
Thanks
I put a lot of thought into it
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
It was well thought out.
… OSU?
94.6538
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
hmmm, I don't know why that didn't show up.
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
What would everyone's LSU prediction be if Kash Cliff Harris was playing?
I’m torn. Harris is good for a punt return TD every other game … could have been game changer. I say with Kash I’d be at 55%, without I’m at 51
Unversity of Oregon, Class of 2006. Currently spreading the Duck love in Ann Arbor, MI.
Virtually none.
He only had 2 TD returns outside of the UNM game. That’s one every 6 games. Plus, LSU’s passing game won’t be very good, with or without Harris.
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on Jun 27, 2011 6:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Cliff is worth about 1%
If LSU was more of a pass-heavy team, or if we weren’t as deep at CB, it’d be worth more.
Our Acrobatics & Tumbling team can beat up your Acrobatics & Tumbling team.
Addicted to Quack, where Matt Daddy can't fall asleep unless a grown man in drag sings "Daisy Bell" to him.
If it were Stanford that's one thing.
Last I heard LSU didn’t have Andrew Luck. One might say the (apparent) loss of Alonso hurts more.
Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.
by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Jun 27, 2011 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
After 3 straight 10-plus-win seasons, a 9-win season would be a letdown.
I don’t know if it would be “regressing,” but it would be disappointing.
Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.
by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Jun 27, 2011 7:24 PM PDT reply actions
The bigger question is
would a 9 win season get Oregon into the PTCG? Let’s say one of the 3 losses is to LSU. That leaves 2 conference losses. Best guess would be USC and Stanford. Losing to Stanford hurts the most because they’re a divisional rival and we would then need them to lose to 2 division opponents in order to get over them into the Pac Twelve (or is it 12 or XII?) Championship Game.
It’s going to be very interesting with the new division alignments to see who makes it into the PTCG. I can tell you that I feel like not making the PTCG would be a letdown and disappointing, but having to play Furd on the road makes that very possible.
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
It's certainly possible.
At this point not making the PXII title game would be disappointing as well. Yes, we’re playing for much higher stakes than beating the Biebers and hoping for the Holiday bowl (or for the old hands, any bowl at all).
Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.
by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Jun 27, 2011 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Without a whole lot of thought (which can be said for any of my posts):
LSU 40 (Chip has yet to show he can win a big one on the road)
Nevada 90 (UO scheduled this one just right; after the QB and Tui left)
MSU 99 (don’t blink, you’ll miss it)
UA 75 (UA replacing lots of starters)
Cal 90 (I would bet the house that UO covers if the players are anywhere as close as I am to hearing how Cal “solved” Oregon)
ASU 80 (Bet the over)
Col 75 (Trap game, but Colorado is really bad, right . . .?)
WSU 90 (better doesn’t mean good)
UW 75 (That guy a QB for them last year really beat out Montana’s son?)
Stan 49 (I said 49% in the poll, but depending on how the season goes, i.e., UO goes into the game undefeated, and UO will win)
USC 80 (USC’s “bowl game” for the second year in a row)
OSU 75 (Civil War, anything can happen, but I don’t seriously see lunch pail u doing much this year)
Pac-12 C 75
CK’s teams have in fact won a few “big ones on the road” (think Arizona in 09 or USC last year. In particular, the world was pointing at that game in the Coliseum last year as the one the Ducks were going to lose).
More of a concern to me: Why is it so hard for Chip to beat another team when he has more than two weeks to prepare for the game? Everyone says “it’s easier to prepare for the Oregon offense if you have extra time”. Maybe it’s the other way around. The other teams aren’t the only ones with extra time.
Nobody does offseason like Oregon. --- Gekko Mojo
Chip wants to win the day....
…he doesn’t have a mantra for two weeks
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
@chrislandon
by Gekko Mojo on Jun 28, 2011 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Seems like he actually changed it up a little too much in the NCG last year, over thought it, IMHO.
Everybody was kung foo fighting, now it's all ho hum.
by Bill Musgrave on Jun 28, 2011 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know, I think Kenjon should have RUN TO THE MOTHER FUCKING PYLON. But that’s just me.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
TACKLE HIM TACKLE HIM PLAY'S NOT OVER GUYS!!!
Oh, sorry, I forgot when I was for a minute.
Everybody was kung foo fighting, now it's all ho hum.
by Bill Musgrave on Jun 28, 2011 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Good impression of ASU defenders in ’08, Bill Musgrave!
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
You forgot my performance as Reuben Droughns against UTEP in 1999 as well.
At least I think this is UTEP… see the play around 3:00. Regardless, you get to watch this video of Reuben made by kerrrrttttt, a double special treat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63MK-YpA8nE
And for the heck of it, MoMo in 2002
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THpcstNxGb4&feature=related
And LeFalconPunch in 2008
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBfZOsnIjpE
Yes my friends, the old proverb is true.
Spin around shoulda been down karma is indeed a bitch.
Everybody was kung foo fighting, now it's all ho hum.
by Bill Musgrave on Jun 29, 2011 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Why all the love for LSU???
Look, I get they’re in the ESS EEE SEE, but still, they have absolutely no quarterback. I mean zero, zilch, nada. I get their D will be the toughest we’ll see all year, but take that Auburn game, and remove Cam. I see that game as more than a coin toss, 75%.
There's a reason many are putting them at #1.
You can overlook them all you want; I’m trying to decide if it’s too early yet to PANIC!!!!
Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.
by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Jun 27, 2011 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions
For what it counts, Las Vegas views a 75% probability as a bout a 7.5 spread, prior to any bets placed.
I believe they have LSU favored by 3, which is a 59% probability in their favor.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
Oregon opened as a 3 point favorite, so oregon_fan may not be too far off. However, I think I saw it droped to -2 at one place a couple weekend ago, and it’s now down to -2, this site is showing the game as a pick’em.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Have they allowed people to start placing bets yet?
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
I am going to be in Vegas
in the middle of August. Wonder what the line will be at that time. I will likely need to place a bet, but will probably just do the over/under.
Curse you, Offseason.
Look out for a much improved Jefferson.
He has much to lose this year, with Mettenberger breathing down his neck, and the draft looming next year, he has put in a ton of work in the off-season, not to mention Krags as his new mentor.
I, for one, am VERY excited about Jefferson having Kragthorpe and his new mentor and history teacher.
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
So,
when/how do we see the results/averages of the poll?
Dear Pit Crew,
If my ears aren't ringing, YOU'RE DOING IT WRONG.
Just as a note, because there have been a couple entries like this:
It’s easier for me to just dismiss an entire ballot that has numbers over 100, than it is for me to edit it or to know what they really think.
So any posts with things like a 110% or 500% chance will be removed.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
Yay! Living up to his Sig: S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
Well, you can't say they don't want it bad enough.
Nobody does offseason like Oregon. --- Gekko Mojo
Thanks for doing this
In retrospect I’m likely too optimistic. I’m certain that feeling will subside in late August.
Who needs normal sleep patterns?
by AcadianTraverse on Jun 28, 2011 8:27 AM PDT reply actions
LSU 50
Nevada 85
MSU 100
Arizona 70
Cal 75
ASU 75
Colorado 85
WSU 90
UW 70
Stanford 55
USC 70
OSU 80
Pac12 75
These are pretty confident ratings, yet lower that some others. It’s hard for me to be surpremely confident before the season even starts – there are so many unknowns. Contrast that with the last part of last season…by the end of the USC game I was absolutely positive we wouldn’t lose at all that regular season. And I was pretty darn confident about that NC game too.
Curse you, Offseason.
You’re actually below the current average.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-S-N-A-R-K-Y"
"If Lache Seastrunk is the POTG against LSU, I will formally quit ATQ." - Axemen23 on 6/21/2011
I suspected as much
Yet the only games I’m even below 70% on are LSU and Stanford. That’s really quite confident in my opinion.
Curse you, Offseason.
I predict
that one team will win each of the games that Oregon plays this season.
THAT'S RIGHT, Kenny Wheaton you did. You cut back into GREATNESS.
by HoodRiverDuck on Jun 30, 2011 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
