With the Ted Miller link and discussions regarding which Pac-10/12 team will regress. Oregon is the top target of the conference and after making the national championship game, the only way to really "progress" is to win the national championship, regress would be failure to make the National Championship game.. Personally, I find this to be an unrealistic expectation. Winning the conference is difficult enough, but if Oregon were to win less than 10 games, would the season be a disappointment? The only way to really figure that out isn't to let columnists tell you what is a disappointing season, but to figure what Oregon fans actually expect. Being the cold and calculated person I am, the only way I can see to answer this question is with mathematics.
Now don't fret. I'll do the actual "math stuff" myself, but I need your input. I want your honest opinion on the probability of Oregon winning each game. With 100% being no chance of losing, and 0% being no chance of winning. Be as precises as you feel necessary, I just want you to be honest.
Why is this metric different from other predictions? Well first of all, great question. You have a brilliant mind. Secondly, the math works out slightly differently. When you say Oregon will go 11-2 with losses to Stanford and LSU, you're looking applying 0% and 100% probabilities, but if you think the chance of Oregon is beating LSU is about 50%, and the chance of Stanford is about 50%, you're saying the probability of Oregon going 1-1 is the most likely outcome.
Now, to give credit where credit is due, this idea originates from Tomahawk Nation, from over 2 years ago. This has been followed up by California Golden Blogs as well.
In the spirit of the blog poll, and SHUFELT poll, I'll likely call out the extra curricular extremities, if I have the time available.
I don't think this is a predictive model, but I do think it can help give realistic feedback of what Oregon's Fans expect.
With that said, please provide your probabilities for each game in the form below: