FanPost

S-H-U-F-E-L-T-L-I-K-E-P-O-L-L-I-N-G: Week 2 (TL;DR)

I practically doubled my data over the weekend! Unfortunately, that's still not enough to bring any solid resumes to the table. Many bad teams look good, and many good teams look bad. It takes a few weeks for some tangible results - but we're another week closer to that.

61653_dominique_whaley_medium

via cdn1.sbnation.com

There's some wacky stuff here, so let us dive in to the top 25.

RankTeamVoW AvgDelta
1 Oklahoma (1-0) 2.833 ↑ 9
2 Oklahoma State (2-0) 1.916 ↑ 10
3 Baylor (1-0) 1.760 ↑ 36
4 Texas A&M (1-0) 1.725 ↑ 7
5 Auburn (2-0) 1.565 ↑ 31
6 South Florida (2-0) 1.449 ↑ 20
7 Texas (2-0) 1.391 ↑ 7
8 Florida (2-0) 1.183 ↓ 2
9 Tulsa (1-1) 1.138 ↑ 62
10 TCU (1-1) 1.080 ↑ 33
11 LSU (2-0) 0.970 ↑ 9
12 Ohio State (2-0) 0.944 ↓ 9
13 BYU (1-1) 0.944 ↑ 16
14 Houston (2-0) 0.936 ↑ 21
15 Stanford (2-0) 0.870 ↓ 13
16 Alabama (2-0) 0.849 ↓ 11
17 Michigan (2-0) 0.842 ↑ 1
18 Bowling Green (2-0) 0.824 ↓ 14
19 Florida State (2-0) 0.794 ↓ 11
20 Illinois (2-0) 0.733 ↑ 7
21 Georgia Tech (2-0) 0.649 ↑ 66
22 Mississippi State (1-1) 0.638 ↓ 21
23 Notre Dame (0-2) 0.629 ↑ 32
24 UCF (2-0) 0.538 ↑ 58
25 Wisconsin (2-0) 0.454 ↓ 16
Dropped Out: South Carolina, West Virginia, FIU, Boise State, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Maryland, Northwestern, Colorado State, Pittsburgh, Clemson

You can see, quite a bit if movement, Tulsa shot up 62 spots, Georgia Tech went up 66 spots. The top is also dominated by teams that have only played, and won, one game.

Notre Dame is getting top 25 consideration by not being blown out to teams that have handed out sizable losses to other teams. The reality of it is, nobody listed here that isn't in the 5 aren't that far away from being ranked in the bottom half of the country.

There still is not a lot to really read into. It's week 2, many teams have only played one game. So given the small amount of data for each team to work with, a vast majority of teams are looking pretty mediocre. Quite a few crappy teams, and then there is Oklahoma - who has only played one game.

But the VoW Avg gap between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, is about the same between WSU (#35) and Florida (#8)

Week_2b2_2b-_2bvow_2bgraph_png_medium

via lh4.googleusercontent.com

Now on to the extras.

 

Extra Curriculars

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Tennessee (2.702) vs. Cincinnati (1.080) W 45-23 2.462
Alabama (3.753) @ Penn State (-0.155) W 27-11 2.401
Auburn (0.860) vs. Mississippi State (2.321) W 41-34 2.162
Tulsa (0.689) @ Tulane (-1.459) W 31-3 2.104
Georgia Tech (4.280) @ Middle Tennessee (-2.636) W 49-21 2.104


SEC Representin'. Auburn gets a resume boost from beating the computer's No. 1 team from last week. Tulsa over Tulane is a bit mind boggling, but it's really just both schools getting a little bit of resume credit for Tulsa playing Oklahoma. Not much data in 2 weeks - they have at least 10 more weeks to dilute that.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to a team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
UCLA (0.354) vs. San Jose State (-2.831) W 27-17 -0.304
Arkansas State (0.868) vs. Memphis (-4.806) W 47-3 -0.298
Rice (-1.183) vs. Purdue (0.066) W 24-22 -0.176
Michigan (1.691) vs. Notre Dame (-1.470) W 35-31 -0.117
San Diego State (2.636) @ Army (-2.444) W 23-20 0.079


I can't really say this any better. It's actually quite fitting, and probably the most accurate list the computer calculated out so far this year. UCLA had an embarrassing thriller - and yeah, they won by more than two scores, but it actually came down a lot closer than that. San Jose State had a legitimate chance to win late in the 4th quarter.

How about that Michigan/Notre Dame game? Games like that are what make college football great. The Big House looked fantastic under the lights too.

 

No Shame Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Notre Dame (-1.470) @ Michigan (1.691) L 31-35 1.078
BYU (0.857) @ Texas (1.533) L 16-17 0.955
Toledo (1.362) @ Ohio State (2.590) L 22-27 0.640
Rutgers (2.103) @ North Carolina (1.850) L 22-24 0.272
Mississippi State (2.321) @ Auburn (0.860) L 34-41 0.180


The computer just did this so I can talk more about the Michigan/Notre Dame game. Our friend Brian Floyd had an amusing quick take on the game and Denard Robinson.

I'm also thinking that the only thing "high" on Texas is my computer. 

 

Facepalm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Tulane (-1.459) vs. Tulsa (0.689) L 3-31 -3.198
Memphis (-4.806) @ Arkansas State (0.868) L 3-47 -2.254
Kent State (-3.332) vs. LA-Lafayette (-0.031) L 12-20 -2.210
Western Kentucky (-3.034) vs. Navy (3.600) L 14-40 -2.136
Akron (-4.594) vs. Temple (4.409) L 3-41 -2.102

 

Tulane lost to Tulsa who had one of the worst losses in week 1. It's pretty simple. It's just a lot of ugly blow outs here to bad one loss teams.

Conference Rankings

Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 SEC - (20-4) 1.995 -1.505 0.363
2 Big 12 - (14-1) 1.766 -1.103 0.204
3 Independent - (3-5) 0.136 0.253 0.131
4 Big Ten - (17-7) 1.487 -1.794 -0.293
5 Big East - (12-4) 1.562 -1.639 -0.416
6 C-USA - (11-12) -0.642 0.269 -0.494
7 ACC - (15-7) 1.096 -1.365 -0.544
8 Pac-12 - (16-8) 0.955 -1.355 -0.555
9 WAC - (5-10) -0.697 0.082 -0.687
10 MAC - (14-11) 0.439 -1.071 -0.738
11 Sun Belt - (5-12) -1.480 1.089 -0.777
12 MWC - (9-6) 0.534 -1.202 -0.928


The SEC takes a big leap from their dominate showing this week.Things are already looking fairly accurate with perception on the year. Just for kicks and giggles, I booted out OSU just to see what effect it would have on the Pac-12 rankings, and the conference would actually be up to 3rd. Losing to FCS teams suck, and it reflects on the whole conference.

 

Pac-12 Conference Rankings

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Stanford - (2-0) 4.571 -3.164 0.870
2 California - (2-0) 1.983 -1.942 0.416
3 Oregon - (1-1) 0.781 0.103 0.402
4 UCLA - (1-1) 0.354 -0.122 0.348
5 Washington State - (2-0) 4.052 -4.229 0.299
6 Arizona State - (2-0) 2.225 -2.209 -0.170
7 USC - (2-0) 0.845 -0.587 -0.298
8 Arizona - (1-1) 0.296 -0.931 -0.639
9 Colorado - (0-2) -2.180 1.226 -1.060
10 Washington - (2-0) 0.854 -2.087 -1.505
11 Utah - (1-1) 0.412 -1.899 -1.685
12 Oregon State - (0-2) -2.732 -0.421 -3.630


The Oregon fan in me is laughing at CU being ranked ahead of UW. I wish I could say it was intentional. And yes - WSU is ranked in the top half of the conference.

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

These schools have so far had the most difficult opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing great opponents, but playing opponents that have had a high Team Value, like explosive, high octane, high-winning opponents. 

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
1 UAB - (0-1) C-USA 3.978
2 UNLV - (0-2) MWC 3.926
3 Florida Atlantic - (0-2) Sun Belt 3.762
4 Akron - (0-2) MAC 3.499
5 Boston College - (0-2) ACC 3.282
6 New Mexico - (0-2) MWC 3.181
7 Georgia - (0-2) SEC 2.896
8 East Carolina - (0-2) C-USA 2.888
9 Miami (FL) - (0-1) ACC 2.873
10 North Texas - (0-2) Sun Belt 2.679


I don't really have much commentary for this here. UAB is getting a nice boost because their only game has been against Florida. Unsurprisingly, nobody here has won a game yet.

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

These schools have so far had the easiest opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing the weakest opponents, but playing opponents that have had a low Team Value, like low scoring teams that find themselves losing more than winning.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
120 Eastern Michigan - (2-0) MAC -4.643
119 Wyoming - (2-0) MWC -4.643
118 Texas Tech - (1-0) Big 12 -4.643
117 Kansas State - (1-0) Big 12 -4.643
116 Temple - (2-0) MAC -4.618
115 Washington State - (2-0) Pac-12 -4.229
114 Michigan State - (2-0) Big Ten -4.212
113 Arkansas - (2-0) SEC -3.950
112 Colorado State - (2-0) MWC -3.950
111 Navy - (2-0) Independent -3.839


Apparently Bill Snyder is in charge of 3 teams' scheduling now. EMU and Wyoming have played two FCS schools. Texas Tech and Kansas had to take a bye week after playing the tough week 1 FCS schools. Temple has gone with the "almost FCS" teams, Villanova and Akron.

Games to Watch/Stream/TiVo/"Acquire"

These are this week's matchups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Florida State (4.258) vs. Oklahoma (3.345) 0.913 3.802
West Virginia (3.17) @ Maryland (2.873) 0.297 3.022
LSU (3.286) @ Mississippi State (2.321) 0.965 2.803
Illinois (3.221) vs. Arizona State (2.225) 0.996 2.723
Eastern Michigan (2.162) @ Michigan (1.691) 0.471 1.927


This is Florida State's only game this year. They'll likely end up with one of the easiest schedules. They practically a shoe-in for a BCS game.

The LSU @ Mississippi State game could be very good.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Alabama (3.753) vs. North Texas (-3.641) 7.395 0.056
Texas Tech (3.74) @ New Mexico (-3.257) 6.998 0.242
Arkansas (4.026) vs. Troy (-2.706) 6.731 0.660
Cincinnati (1.08) vs. Akron (-4.594) 5.674 -1.757
Ohio State (2.59) @ Miami (FL) (-2.873) 5.463 -0.142


Alabama vs. North Texas? I think that would make my TiVo fall asleep. 

I bet Ohio State and Miami weren't expecting to get on this list (I know you schools RSS this!), and I bet nobody last year was thinking this would be a bad match-up. Who knows - maybe it will be a good game. Neither school really has had much of a chance to do anything.

About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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