FanPost

Shufelt CPU Rankings - Week 3

Another week in the books, and nothing to surprising. A noteworthy game for Boise State despite playing an outmatched Toledo team, they skyrocket up in the Shufelt computer poll with their 40-15 win over a bad team after taking a bye week.

61799_boise_st_toledo_football_medium

via cdn2.sbnation.com

Who else made a big splash this week? Let's take a look at the poll rankings

RankTeamVoW AvgDelta
1 Oklahoma (2-0) 3.149 ↔ 0
2 Boise State (2-0) 2.688 ↑ 32
3 Oklahoma State (3-0) 2.573 ↓ 1
4 Stanford (3-0) 2.141 ↑ 11
5 LSU (3-0) 2.135 ↑ 6
6 Alabama (3-0) 2.125 ↑ 10
7 Texas A&M (2-0) 2.067 ↓ 3
8 Michigan (3-0) 2.039 ↑ 9
9 Wisconsin (3-0) 1.642 ↑ 16
10 Florida International (3-0) 1.611 ↑ 19
11 Texas (3-0) 1.609 ↓ 4
12 South Florida (3-0) 1.607 ↓ 6
13 Georgia Tech (3-0) 1.518 ↑ 8
14 Notre Dame (1-2) 1.416 ↑ 9
15 South Carolina (3-0) 1.314 ↑ 11
16 West Virginia (3-0) 1.200 ↑ 11
17 USC (3-0) 1.184 ↑ 40
18 TCU (2-1) 1.141 ↓ 8
19 Illinois (3-0) 1.039 ↑ 1
20 Maryland (1-1) 1.035 ↑ 26
21 Florida (3-0) 0.988 ↓ 13
22 Tulsa (1-2) 0.982 ↓ 13
23 Oregon (2-1) 0.919 ↑ 7
24 Virginia Tech (3-0) 0.873 ↑ 16
25 Ohio (3-0) 0.858 ↑ 14

Dropped Out: North Carolina, Houston, Florida State, Auburn, Mississippi State, UCF, Bowling Green, BYU, Ohio State

Oklahoma Keeps their top spot while making mild improvements to their resume. Boise State improved their resume by 2.372 points (That's 88%) and shot up 32 ranks. An unsurprising anomaly for early season data, but still an impressive hop for the Broncos.

While their resume score didn't improve as much as Boise State, USC moved up 40 ranks with their win over upcoming ACC team (And a resume boost from Utah over BYU), Syracuse. I know a lot of people aren't impressed with USC, but they are undefeated after three games. They are still loaded with talent, but it's only knee deep.

Week_2b3_2b-_2bvow_2bgraph_png_medium

Dotted line represents Top 25 Threshold
via lh3.googleusercontent.com

There is a lot more separation between teams this week than last week. Oklahoma is still quite a bit better, but Boise State and Oklahoma State are within arms reach. There is a small group of contenders, which are teams 4-8, and then you hit the rest of the pack. That little dot in the far right corner? Well... we'll get to that team later in the Extra Curricular Awards.

 

Extra Curriculars

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Utah (2.156) @ BYU (-1.309) W 54-10 4.634
Oklahoma State (3.379) @ Tulsa (-1.066) W 59-33 4.185
Oklahoma (3.222) @ Florida State (1.791) W 23-13 3.586
LSU (3.33) @ Mississippi State (0.408) W 19-6 3.424
Texas (2.62) @ UCLA (-1.362) W 49-20 3.390


I swear, the Utah and BYU game was a competitive game for a while. Really! Utah trailed 7-10 in the second quarter, and I don't know what was said in each team's locker room, but it ended up translating to 40-0 run in the second half.

The Oklahoma State @ Tulsa game ended up actually happening. I believe kickoff was at 12:15am Central. Neither team really slept, with Tulsa putting up 33 points, but they just can't compare to Oklahoma State's offense, which is looking to be one of the best in the country as they put up 59 points - both teams hit the snooze button a few times the next day.

 

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to a team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Ball State (-0.519) vs. Buffalo (0.059) W 28-25 -0.025
Duke (-1.666) @ Boston College (-2.563) W 20-19 0.047
Arkansas (3.145) vs. Troy (-2.045) W 38-28 0.074
Cincinnati (2.044) vs. Akron (-4.386) W 59-14 0.108
Minnesota (-0.75) vs. Miami (OH) (-1.208) W 29-23 0.110


I don't really know what to say about Ball State  vs. Buffalo. It sounds boring. Duke won a conference football game. Arkansas damaged the SEC reputation a little bit by only winning by 10 points against Troy. Cincinnati destroyed Akron - but not by enough.


 

No Shame Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Arizona State (1.3) @ Illinois (2.33) L 14-17 0.977
Navy (2.217) @ South Carolina (1.698) L 21-24 0.682
UCF (2.29) @ Florida International (2.195) L 10-17 0.626
Troy (-2.045) @ Arkansas (3.145) L 28-38 0.477
Tennessee (1.34) @ Florida (3.085) L 23-33 0.313


I know a lot of people are ragging on ASU losing to Illinois, but it wasn't by THAT much, and Illinois isn't THAT bad. This computer poll ranking even has them Illinois ranked.

Navy was very competitive against the SEC East favorite - they almost got out of Columbia, SC with a win that would have shocked the country.

 

Facepalm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Western Kentucky (-3.597) vs. Indiana State (-4.643) L 16-44 -9.366
UAB (-4.546) vs. Tulane (0.829) L 10-49 -5.147
BYU (-1.309) vs. Utah (2.156) L 10-54 -4.030
Colorado State (0.384) vs. Colorado (-0.852) L 14-28 -3.998
Boston College (-2.563) vs. Duke (-1.997) L 19-20 -3.670


This one is kind of epic. Remember that dot in the lower right corner of that graph? That's what happens when an FCS team comes to your home turf and utterly destroys you by 4 touchdowns. I believe this is the worse tracked loss in the Shufelt Poll Rankings era. Western Kentucky was already one of the worst teams, and now they probably will end up staying at the bottom of the rankings the entire year. A Value of Win of -5.147 is really bad. A VoW of -9.366 is atrocious. 

 

Conference Rankings

Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Big 12 - (23-2) 2.462 -1.487 0.792
2 SEC - (27-9) 1.514 -0.948 0.357
3 Pac-12 - (22-13) 0.810 -0.478 -0.025
4 Independent - (5-7) -0.156 0.594 -0.033
5 Big Ten - (26-10) 1.400 -1.382 -0.037
6 Big East - (16-7) 1.466 -1.372 -0.059
7 ACC - (23-11) 1.023 -0.985 -0.173
8 MWC - (14-8) 0.520 -0.524 -0.412
9 C-USA - (17-16) -0.409 -0.083 -0.607
10 MAC - (17-21) -0.273 -0.470 -0.978
11 Sun Belt - (7-17) -1.625 0.972 -1.004
12 WAC - (7-15) -0.683 -0.194 -1.005

Despite having the weakest schedule, the Big-12 is walking away with the best record, thanks to a very top-heavy conference. In addition, they only have 2 losses as a conference heading into week 4.

 

Pac-12 Conference Rankings

No big shock here. Stanford is undefeated and have effectively controlled all their games. USC has the benefit of being undefeated against "okay" competition. They got a little help from Utah's destruction of BYU. Oregon State's resume improved - probably because they didn't play. 

RankTeamTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Stanford - (3-0) 4.597 -1.887 2.141
2 USC - (3-0) 1.383 0.427 1.184
3 Oregon - (2-1) 1.895 -0.574 0.919
4 Utah - (2-1) 2.156 -1.523 0.684
5 Arizona State - (2-1) 1.300 -0.161 0.546
6 Washington State - (2-1) 1.971 -1.303 0.525
7 California - (3-0) 2.719 -2.121 0.460
8 Arizona - (1-2) -1.353 1.111 -0.503
9 UCLA - (1-2) -1.362 0.790 -0.711
10 Colorado - (1-2) -0.852 0.875 -0.864
11 Washington - (2-1) 0.001 -0.956 -1.406
12 Oregon State - (0-2) -2.732 -0.415 -3.276

 

Top 10 Toughest Schedules

These schools have so far had the most difficult opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing great opponents, but playing opponents that have had a high Team Value, like explosive, high octane, high-winning opponents. 

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
1 Middle Tennessee - (0-2) Sun Belt 2.910
2 North Texas - (0-3) Sun Belt 2.854
3 New Mexico - (0-3) MWC 2.754
4 Troy - (0-2) Sun Belt 2.518
5 Tulsa - (1-2) C-USA 2.477
6 East Carolina - (0-2) C-USA 2.397
7 Marshall - (1-2) C-USA 2.375
8 Florida Atlantic - (0-2) Sun Belt 2.359
9 Kent State - (0-3) MAC 2.350
10 Notre Dame - (1-2) Independent 2.328

With the Sun Belt and the C-USA being the FBS whipping boys for the SEC, Big-12, Big-10 - this is not shocking to see so many of their teams here. Notre Dame also schedules tough games every year. We'll see how it shakes out as these conferences start their in-conference play.

 

Bottom 10 Toughest Schedules

These schools have so far had the easiest opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing the weakest opponents, but playing opponents that have had a low Team Value, like low scoring teams that find themselves losing more than winning.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
120 Texas Tech - (2-0) Big 12 -4.361
119 Kansas State - (2-0) Big 12 -4.029
118 Arkansas - (3-0) SEC -3.589
117 Tulane - (2-1) C-USA -3.418
116 Colorado State - (2-1) MWC -3.192
115 Michigan State - (2-1) Big Ten -2.891
114 Northwestern - (2-1) Big Ten -2.829
113 Purdue - (2-1) Big Ten -2.821
112 Temple - (2-1) MAC -2.778
111 North Carolina State - (2-1) ACC -2.664

Here we find the teams beating up on the Sun Belt and C-USA. Tulane thought they could squeeze through here though. Ha! I'm on to you, Tulane!

 

Games to Watch/Stream/TiVo/"Acquire"

These are this week's matchups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Alabama (3.976) vs. Arkansas (3.145) 0.831 3.561
Oklahoma State (3.379) @ Texas A&M (3.215) 0.163 3.297
LSU (3.33) @ West Virginia (2.993) 0.337 3.161
Ohio (2.963) @ Rutgers (2.103) 0.860 2.533
Nebraska (2.251) @ Wyoming (2.004) 0.247 2.128

I'm gonna take a little moment to brag here real quick. Last week, I said in the comments that Alabama would need to beat North Texas by 42 points - that's kind of what the computer results were telling me. They ended up winning 41-0; I was pretty damn close. I know this is probably a huge amount of coincidence, but I want to willfully be blinded by my own hubris for just one second.

Even though Arkansas struggled this week against an inferior opponent, they are still a good team. Alabama has an edge in this one, but it could turn out to be a good game. The Oklahoma State @ ATM game is very intriguing to me - as far as the computer poll rankings is concerned, this is practically a pick-em, if both teams play to their constants, Oklahoma State will win by 1.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts. I removed all the FBS vs FCS teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Texas Tech (4.733) vs. Nevada (-0.409) 5.141 2.162
Boise State (4.009) vs. Tulsa (-1.066) 5.075 1.472
Virginia Tech (3.096) @ Marshall (-1.705) 4.802 0.696
Auburn (-0.029) vs. Florida Atlantic (-3.782) 3.753 -1.905
Baylor (2.52) vs. Rice (-1.183) 3.704 0.668


I don't have a lot to say about these. I'm a little shocked Texas Tech vs Nevada is on here, but Texas Tech has been a scoring machine this year (As usual), and Nevada hasn't yet. This could be crazy though, lots of passing yards for Texas Tech, lots of rushing yards for Nevada. I favor Texas Tech's chances with that situation though, because if they can take the lead early, Nevada's strength only kills the clock faster.

 

About the Poll Rankings

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll rankings.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll rankings than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

Edit: I made a mistake on score with San Diego State's win over Washington State. I have updated the polls accordingly. It changes the Conference Rankings, the Pac-12 Rankings, and the Face Palm Award.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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