FanPost

Shufelt CPU Rankings - Week 4

We have a new leader of the pack after a week with some big notable wins, including LSU's domination over West Virginia, but does LSU actually play in the conference with the strongest resume?

32972_vanderbilt_lsu_football_medium

via cdn1.sbnation.com

RankTeamVoW AvgVoW Avg DeltaRank Delta
1 LSU (4-0) 2.962 0.827 ↑ 4
2 Oklahoma State (4-0) 2.915 0.342 ↑ 1
3 Alabama (4-0) 2.912 0.787 ↑ 3
4 Boise State (3-0) 2.805 0.117 ↓ 2
5 Stanford (3-0) 2.667 0.526 ↓ 1
6 Oklahoma (3-0) 2.609 -0.540 ↓ 5
7 Michigan (4-0) 2.351 0.312 ↑ 1
8 South Florida (4-0) 2.177 0.570 ↑ 4
9 Florida (4-0) 2.017 1.029 ↑ 12
10 South Carolina (4-0) 1.903 0.589 ↑ 5
11 Texas (3-0) 1.902 0.293 ↔ 0
12 Texas A&M (2-1) 1.897 -0.170 ↓ 5
13 Notre Dame (2-2) 1.780 0.364 ↑ 1
14 Oregon (3-1) 1.763 0.844 ↑ 9
15 Georgia Tech (4-0) 1.694 0.177 ↓ 2
16 Nebraska (4-0) 1.474 1.451 ↑ 33
17 Virginia Tech (4-0) 1.340 0.467 ↑ 7
18 Baylor (3-0) 1.244 0.388 ↑ 8
19 Temple (3-1) 1.152 1.656 ↑ 53
20 Tennessee (2-1) 1.141 0.604 ↑ 13
21 Illinois (4-0) 1.106 0.068 ↓ 2
22 Penn State (3-1) 1.070 0.781 ↑ 19
23 Arizona State (3-1) 1.060 0.514 ↑ 9
24 Houston (4-0) 0.939 0.250 ↑ 5
25 Rutgers (2-1) 0.924 0.631 ↑ 15


Dropped Out: TCU, Wisconsin, Florida International, Tulsa, USC, West Virginia, Ohio, Maryland

I added a new column if data. I dont' want to overload everyone, but I figured it could be relevant. Too often we look at rankings as if the difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as 6th and 7th, or 22nd and 23rd. This is not the case, nor is it in most standings. 

So this week's rankings I feel is fairly reasonable. Every week there is a major head scratching team, and this one for me is Notre Dame. I've got to say though, on a resume ranking basis, I am very pleased with how #1 through #6 has turned out.

The big significant movers this week have been Nebraska and Temple as they both pole vault into the top 25 for week 4 action.

Week_2b4_2b-_2bvow_2bgraph_png_medium

via lh3.googleusercontent.com

There's a growing bunch of teams showing the real contenders this year. There is a little separation of the leading pack, and a top 15 pack, then a line of mediocrity.

 

Extra Curricular Awards

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
LSU (3.641) @ West Virginia (1.101) W 47-21 4.735
Temple (2.839) @ Maryland (-0.587) W 38-7 4.475
Nebraska (2.793) @ Wyoming (0.398) W 38-14 3.948
Oklahoma State (3.033) @ Texas A&M (1.478) W 30-29 3.583
Florida (3.683) @ Kentucky (-1.202) W 48-10 3.557


Nothing here is really a shock. Maybe seeing Temple on there is, but hey... it was Maryland, the northeastern tortugas. LSU deservedly earned this award. Oklahoma State probably would have had more to say, but they let Blackmon run the clock out while getting a game-ending intentional safety which took their MOV from 3 to 1.

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to a team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
East Carolina (-1.412) vs. UAB (-3.298) W 28-23 -1.882
Troy (-1.18) vs. Middle Tennessee (-1.94) W 38-35 -0.550
North Texas (-2.631) vs. Indiana (-0.439) W 24-21 -0.374
Auburn (0.479) vs. Florida Atlantic (-3.189) W 30-14 -0.194
UCLA (-0.303) @ Oregon State (-2.779) W 27-19 -0.044


I guess I'm mostly shocked that UCLA wasn't higher up here, but 8 points is a bit better than 5, 3 or 3. Someone forgot to tell Auburn that FAU was bad.

 

No Shame Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Nevada (-0.366) @ Texas Tech (3.249) L 34-35 1.589
North Carolina (1.037) @ Georgia Tech (3.36) L 28-35 1.449
Missouri (1.027) @ Oklahoma (2.609) L 28-38 1.225
Tulsa (-1.392) @ Boise State (3.463) L 21-41 1.049
Western Michigan (0.778) @ Illinois (1.885) L 20-23 1.034


Nevada almost pulled of a reasonable upset against Texas Tech. That was my #1 game to watch during a root canal last week, while it was a win, it should have been about a 36 loss. Also unsurprisingly Tulsa made this list despite losing by 20 points.

 

Facepalm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
UNLV (-2.439) vs. Southern Utah (-4.643) L 16-41 -9.141
Minnesota (-1.417) vs. North Dakota State (-4.643) L 24-37 -8.061
New Mexico (-3.626) vs. Sam Houston State (-4.643) L 45-48 -6.906
Idaho (-2.058) vs. Fresno State (0.453) L 24-48 -3.979
Memphis (-3.177) vs. SMU (1.948) L 0-42 -3.972


So remember last week when I ragged and ragged on Western Kentucky? UNLV almost topped their (lack of) performance. The rather shocking thing, is that TWO OTHER TEAMS LOST TO AN FCS SCHOOL! 

3stooges_face_palm_medium

via shesawake.com

 

Conference Rankings

Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Big 12 - (28-4) 1.976 -0.863 0.969
2 SEC - (34-13) 1.325 -0.407 0.652
3 Pac-12 - (26-18) 0.739 -0.364 0.110
4 Big East - (21-9) 1.267 -1.017 0.108
5 Independent - (7-8) 0.045 0.402 0.045
6 Big Ten - (34-12) 1.527 -1.389 0.021
7 ACC - (28-17) 0.752 -0.596 -0.164
8 C-USA - (21-24) -0.426 -0.154 -0.682
9 MWC - (18-12) 0.365 -0.840 -0.822
10 WAC - (10-20) -0.538 -0.221 -0.945
11 MAC - (23-28) -0.202 -0.582 -0.988
12 Sun Belt - (11-21) -1.303 0.369 -1.113


Shocked? You probably shouldn't be. The Big 12 so far has easily been the better conference in regards to the resume. They have several teams ranked in my top 25, while the SEC is looking top heavy. In good news, the Pac-12 is jumping and leaping ahead and is now in the top 3 in resumes. The down side? The difference between 2 and 3 is enormous. But regardless, they are ranked 3rd. Why is that?

 

Pac-12 Conference Rankings

RankTeamTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Stanford - (3-0) 4.597 -1.470 2.667
2 Oregon - (3-1) 2.546 -0.877 1.763
3 Arizona State - (3-1) 1.590 -0.327 1.060
4 Utah - (2-1) 2.156 -1.647 0.565
5 California - (3-1) 1.750 -1.283 0.393
6 USC - (3-1) 0.423 0.593 0.384
7 Washington - (3-1) 0.291 0.125 -0.132
8 Washington State - (2-1) 1.971 -1.944 -0.205
9 UCLA - (2-2) -0.303 0.304 -0.284
10 Colorado - (1-3) -1.231 1.132 -0.815
11 Arizona - (1-3) -2.139 1.383 -0.877
12 Oregon State - (0-3) -2.779 -0.352 -3.197


In it's simplest reason, it's because only 3 teams have a losing record. Expanded reason? half the conference has a resume higher than the ACC's combined resume, and 75% of the conference is better than the combined C-USA conference. 

In essence, the Pac-12 has had a good showing from a couple great resumes, has a whole bunch of upper-to-mid-level resumes, and only a few bad resumes.

 

Pat Hill Award

These schools have so far had the most difficult opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing great opponents, but playing opponents that have had a high Team Value, like explosive, high octane, high-winning opponents.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
1 Rice - (1-2) C-USA 2.305
2 Tulsa - (1-3) C-USA 2.278
3 Florida Atlantic - (0-3) Sun Belt 2.104
4 Marshall - (1-3) C-USA 1.951
5 Notre Dame - (2-2) Independent 1.899
6 North Texas - (1-3) Sun Belt 1.818
7 Nevada - (1-2) WAC 1.387
8 Arizona - (1-3) Pac-12 1.383
9 Middle Tennessee - (0-3) Sun Belt 1.289
10 BYU - (2-2) Independent 1.186


The only AQ teams so far are Notre Dame and Arizona. Arizona's schedule has led to a rather unfortunate situation for Coach Stoops. He doesn't have a great team and he's really only played great teams. So his seat is hot - fortunately for him, he should be able to be competitive with the middle of the Pac, and he can get some wins.


Bill Snyder Award

These schools have so far had the easiest opponents, according to their VAvg. This isn't always indicative of always playing the weakest opponents, but playing opponents that have had a low Team Value, like low scoring teams that find themselves losing more than winning.

RankTeam (Record)ConferenceOpp VAvg
120 Texas Tech - (3-0) Big 12 -2.878
119 Purdue - (2-1) Big Ten -2.767
118 Kansas State - (3-0) Big 12 -2.646
117 Wisconsin - (4-0) Big Ten -2.551
116 Northwestern - (2-1) Big Ten -2.503
115 Tulane - (2-2) C-USA -2.492
114 Colorado State - (3-1) MWC -2.299
113 Air Force - (2-1) MWC -2.296
112 Michigan State - (3-1) Big Ten -2.281
111 Navy - (2-1) Independent -2.140


So the fact that Texas Tech is 3-0 and almost lost to Nevada while having the easiest opponents to-date, makes me really wonder if they're going to be any good. 

 

Games to Watch/Stream/TiVo/"Acquire"

These are this week's matchups that have a high VoW Avg and also has a small disparity between the two teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Alabama (3.685) @ Florida (3.683) 0.002 3.684
Wisconsin (3.889) vs. Nebraska (2.793) 1.096 3.341
Baylor (2.608) @ Kansas State (2.431) 0.177 2.520
TCU (2.399) vs. SMU (1.948) 0.451 2.173
Michigan State (2.149) @ Ohio State (1.389) 0.760 1.769


Alabama @ Florida could be a VERY good match up. Point Zero Zero Two VAvg difference. Both teams are playing at a high level. While I think Alabama should come out with a win - this could be one of those weeks where that SEC team shakes up that conference. It seems to happen every year.

 

Games to Watch During a Root Canal

These are this week's matchups with the largest discrepancies between the two. They are projected to be pretty big blowouts. I removed all the FBS vs FCS teams.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)Team VAvg DiffTeam VAvg Avg
Stanford (4.597) vs. UCLA (-0.303) 4.901 2.147
LSU (3.641) vs. Kentucky (-1.202) 4.844 1.220
Arizona State (1.59) vs. Oregon State (-2.779) 4.369 -0.595
LA-Lafayette (1.138) vs. Florida Atlantic (-3.189) 4.327 -1.026
Cincinnati (2.32) @ Miami (OH) (-1.979) 4.299 0.171


Stanford is scheduled to kick some ass and chew bubble gum. LSU should dish out a similar amount of punishment to Kentucky. These games should already be circled as wins for Stanford and LSU.

The rumor is Oregon State is getting healthy - just in time for them to meet Vontez Burfict. Ouch.

 

About the Rankings

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the rankings.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer rankings than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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