Shufelt Poll: Week 1 (The Pointless Edition)
by JShufelt on Sep 6, 2011 7:32 PM PDT
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PrintWell, it's the first week. This means some oddball results for a computer based resume poll. Because there really is no resume to show outside of MOV and the FCS bias - since that is all we have to work with and there is no other inputs to factor in, we get strange results.
First, everyone that did not play an FCS school gets away with a VoW Avg of 0.000 (See below for definitions). Why? (Great question!) Because they don't get hit with any FCS penalty and they put up X number of points and allowed Y number of points to a school that has allowed X number of points and put up Y. Mathematically, they cancel each other out.
What does that mean for this first week? Well, the best team is going to end up being the team with the highest Margin of Victory because they have a resume that is effectively and applicably zero.
2011 Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 1
| Rank | Team | VoW Avg | Team VAvg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi State (1-0) | 0.000 | 5.684 |
| 2 | Stanford (1-0) | 0.000 | 4.278 |
| 3 | Ohio State (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.837 |
| 4 | Bowling Green (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.812 |
| 5 | Alabama (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.790 |
| 6 | Florida (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.636 |
| 7 | Boise State (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.520 |
| 8 | Florida State (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.407 |
| 9 | Wisconsin (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.407 |
| 10 | Oklahoma (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.345 |
| 11 | Texas A&M (1-0) | 0.000 | 3.282 |
| 12 | Oklahoma State (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.936 |
| 13 | Maryland (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.873 |
| 14 | Texas (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.784 |
| 15 | Florida International (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.784 |
| 16 | Northwestern (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.757 |
| 17 | Clemson (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.706 |
| 18 | Michigan (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.706 |
| 19 | Northern Illinois (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.625 |
| 20 | LSU (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.561 |
| 21 | Colorado State (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.391 |
| 22 | Ohio (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.371 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.282 |
| 24 | South Carolina (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.282 |
| 25 | South Florida (1-0) | 0.000 | 2.263 |
So using the MOV isn't entirely inaccurate when most schools play the equivalent of crab puffs their first week. We have a variety of schools in the top 10 that didn't play an FCS school that could be find on most other Top 10 polls. Some are relatively low, others are relatively high. Hi Michigan. Been a while, huh?
I'm pleased to report nobody dropped out of the top 25.
Flavor of the Week Award
This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.
| Team (Team VAvg) | Opp (Team VAvg) | Score | VoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State (5.684) | @ Memphis (-5.684) | W 59-14 | 0.000 |
| Stanford (4.278) | vs. San Jose State (-4.278) | W 57-3 | 0.000 |
| Ohio State (3.837) | vs. Akron (-3.837) | W 42-0 | 0.000 |
| Bowling Green (3.812) | @ Idaho (-3.812) | W 32-15 | 0.000 |
| Alabama (3.79) | vs. Kent State (-3.79) | W 48-7 | 0.000 |
"Generally". Keep in mind, there are no bias for any FBS schools. AQ teams, conference strength or assumed success has no bearing. You'll also note that this is the top 5.
Bitter Sweet Award
This is awarded to the team that had the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to a team that played close against a bad team.
| Team (Team VAvg) | Opp (Team VAvg) | Score | VoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State (0.282) | vs. Northern Iowa (-4.643) | W 20-19 | -4.360 |
| Kansas State (0.549) | vs. E Kentucky (-4.643) | W 10-7 | -4.094 |
| Wyoming (0.549) | vs. Weber State (-4.643) | W 35-32 | -4.094 |
| Washington (0.549) | vs. Eastern Washington (-4.643) | W 30-27 | -4.094 |
| Louisville (1.6) | vs. Murray State (-4.643) | W 21-9 | -3.043 |
Hey look! Actual VoW score! Iowa State starts off with an applicable resume score with their embarssingly tough fight vs. the mighty (google > "Northern Iowa team mascot") TC Panthers! Wait... TC? Did they lose to an MLS team?
How bad is Kansas State's offense? They struggled to put up 10 points against the other directional Kentucky school Colonels (Googled that one too). Approximately half of K-State's passing yards were caught by former Oregon QB/WR experiment, Chris Harper, with a stat line of 4 Rec, 61 Yds, and 1 TD.
No Shame Award
This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.
| Team (Team VAvg) | Opp (Team VAvg) | Score | VoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech (-0.417) | @ Southern Miss (0.417) | L 17-19 | 0.000 |
| Minnesota (-0.417) | @ USC (0.417) | L 17-19 | 0.000 |
| TCU (-0.417) | @ Baylor (0.417) | L 48-50 | 0.000 |
| Middle Tennessee (-0.549) | @ Purdue (0.549) | L 24-27 | 0.000 |
| UCLA (-0.677) | @ Houston (0.677) | L 34-38 | 0.000 |
All your members here are those that had a close loss against an FBS team. Funny enough, I think if I tacked these results into last year poll, they'd end up on the other side of the same coin - the Facepalm Award. (Nice segue, me!)
Facepalm Award
This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.
| Team (Team VAvg) | Opp (Team VAvg) | Score | VoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke (-2.132) | vs. Richmond (-4.643) | L 21-23 | -6.775 |
| Oregon State (-1.997) | vs. Sacramento State (-4.643) | L 28-29 | -6.640 |
| Memphis (-5.684) | vs. Mississippi State (5.684) | L 14-59 | 0.000 |
| San Jose State (-4.278) | @ Stanford (4.278) | L 3-57 | 0.000 |
| Akron (-3.837) | Ohio State (3.837) | L 0-42 | 0.000 |
If you thought our siblings to the north were going to win this one - you obviously didn't see the two point loss to Duke received from Richmond. They just stole this one from OSU. Those two teams losing to FCS schools will be the brunt of the hate from their conferences, because that will just tanking their VoW.
Conference Rankings
Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.
| Rank | Conference | Team VAvg | Opp VAvg | VoW Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAC - (1-6) | -1.594 | 1.594 | 0.000 |
| 2 | Sun Belt - (1-8) | -1.880 | 1.880 | 0.000 |
| 3 | SEC - (10-2) | 2.051 | -2.378 | -0.327 |
| 4 | C-USA - (5-6) | -0.908 | 0.438 | -0.470 |
| 5 | MAC - (8-5) | 0.609 | -1.101 | -0.492 |
| 6 | Independent - (2-2) | -0.067 | -0.438 | -0.504 |
| 7 | Big Ten - (10-2) | 2.185 | -2.713 | -0.528 |
| 8 | Big East - (8-0) | 2.682 | -3.358 | -0.676 |
| 9 | MWC - (5-3) | 0.669 | -1.703 | -1.034 |
| 10 | ACC - (8-4) | 1.473 | -2.514 | -1.041 |
| 11 | Big 12 - (10-0) | 2.102 | -3.283 | -1.181 |
| 12 | Pac-12 - (8-4) | 1.018 | -2.410 | -1.392 |
Why does this look this way? It's quite simple, really. Schools that didn't load up on FCS were the other season appetizers for the AQ conferences. They didn't schedule many FCS schools, so their VoW Avg is at (or close to) zero. The ACC took a hit from Duke losing to an FCS school and scheduling 4 others. The Big-12 scheduled 4 (A slightly larger percentage) as well. The Pac-12 got OSU's gift, Washington's EWU close call contribution, +4 more FCS schools. Yes. Half the Pac-12 scheduled FCS schools in the first week.
Pac-12 Conference Rankings
| Rank | Conference | Team VAvg | Opp VAvg | VoW Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford - (1-0) | 4.278 | -4.278 | 0.000 |
| 2 | California - (1-0) | 1.704 | -1.704 | 0.000 |
| 3 | USC - (1-0) | 0.417 | -0.417 | 0.000 |
| 4 | UCLA - (0-1) | -0.677 | 0.677 | 0.000 |
| 5 | Colorado - (0-1) | -2.098 | 2.098 | 0.000 |
| 6 | Oregon - (0-1) | -2.561 | 2.561 | 0.000 |
| 7 | Washington State - (1-0) | 3.883 | -4.643 | -0.759 |
| 8 | Arizona State - (1-0) | 3.407 | -4.643 | -1.236 |
| 9 | Arizona - (1-0) | 3.216 | -4.643 | -1.426 |
| 10 | Utah - (1-0) | 2.098 | -4.643 | -2.545 |
| 11 | Washington - (1-0) | 0.549 | -4.643 | -4.094 |
| 12 | Oregon State - (0-1) | -1.997 | -4.643 | -6.640 |
Funny enough, the best school that did schedule an FCS for the first week was WSU. But really, there was only one great win for the conference, thanks to Stanford, the Pac-12 didn't look ENTIRELY inept its first week.
Next week, I'll bring back the most and least exciting upcoming game, plus the "Man vs. Machine".
About the Poll
- It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad.
- That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
- Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal.
- There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
- There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
- Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
- There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
- There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad.
- Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
- Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average.
- VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
- I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
- I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
- You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
- Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
- There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
- A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
- You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.
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I'd go with
S-H-U-F-E-L-T-L-I-K-E-P-O-L-L-I-N-G
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
by Matt Daddy on Sep 6, 2011 8:13 PM PDT reply actions 5 recs
How about
S-H-U-F-E-L-T-A-T-U-G?
Journalism allows almost anyone to direct questions they would never ask of their own friends at random people; since the ensuing dialogue exists for commercial purposes, both parties accept an acceleration of intimacy...The result (when things go well) is a dynamic, adversarial, semi-real conversation --Chuck Klosterman
P-O-I-N-T-O-N-T-H-E-D-O-L-L-W-H-E-R-E-S-H-U-F-E-L-T-Y-O-U?
Member of DaisyDuck's 2011 doody list.
And Cliff Harris was like, "VRRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
by DuckUntilDeath on Sep 9, 2011 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I go for 'The Shufelt Pull.'
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
Wow,
Your computer really likes teams that play cupcakes early on. I have a feeling that after this week, much of the cupcake-beatdown love will be rescinded.
Self anointed President of the Kenjon Barner fan club.
Indeed. Though, it doesn’t so much like teams that play cupcakes. In fact everyone that didn’t play an FCS school essentially got the same points.
The earlier part of the season will always have the most erratic changes.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
In fact everyone that didn’t play an FCS school essentially got the same points.
Than why is OSU’s points different?
"the putz from that UO blog, Matt Daddy" - Steve Tannen
The Daily Faberian
…They played an FCS school.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
Oh. I get it. Derp.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
by JShufelt on Sep 7, 2011 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Umm..
I’d say the bavers loss should rank higher in the level of suckitude than Duke, because nobody EVER expects Duke to do anything in the football. Hence, a hit on the SOS of Duke’s opponents is assumed by default.
The "Beano Cook" of ATQ.
Be honest, JShu
There’s an “expected suckitude” variable in your program, right? Right?
Something like:
#ifdef BAVERS
suckitude *= 9.0;
#endif
Or if it’s C#, I can imagine a simulation section for the LSU game:
try
{
football.Pass(tuinei);
tuinei.RunTo(Field.EndZone);
}
catch (ButterfingersException ex) // TODO: this keyword is ironic, switch languages in future
{
football.Drop();
pacPrestige- -;
}
finally
{
bavers.MockAnyway();
}
I think you’re one of those Java guys, though, personally. Plus it would explain your name: “JavaShufelt” ;-)
Now everyone is going to stalk me on facebook, thanks a lot!
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
Yep
I totally doxed you, man!
I also surmise that the ShuPoll has a snappy UI with over 9000 combinations* of customizable skins, amirite?
- only 4 do not inflict retinal damage on users
You clearly underestimate my laziness.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
What DID you write it in, anyway?
I’m geeking here.
Excel.
I know right? How anti-climactic. Not even a VB Macro is used. It would totally be more efficient to write up in Java where I can just put all the schools in SQL, define my own variables and avoid limited nested if statements and vlookups. But the spreadsheet view just works out so well for what I have and want.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
Aw man!
I was expecting a language with “duck typing”. Or maybe Perl or PHP so you could put some $ characters before your variable names in honor of Uncle Phil ;D
(I’m just getting gratuitous now)
The only person I know that actually has programmed in Perl is my brother.
Besides, wouldn’t it be more apt to do something more “trendy” and “overhyped” like Ruby? Or something more hipster-ish like Objective C?
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
You're right
Objective C is SUCH a Duck language.
I bet Chip Kelly insists you run it on an overclocked computer, with the onlookers booing every time the CPU shuts down due to “overheating”.
See, here at the OSU Computer Science Department, we write everything in Objective Sheep and make all our data structures queues in honor of Reser (you know, for the “first-in-first-out” property)
Meh. You're both coddled.
If I’d coded this it would have been in Fortran, on a stack of punchcards, with 19" greenbar output picked up the next morning.
The "Beano Cook" of ATQ.
Well… Thank god for progress.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
Remember, for all his wealth, King Henry VIII couldn’t have owned a single transistor radio!
The "Beano Cook" of ATQ.
No wonder he was rich
there wasn’t anything good to spend money on yet.
Well, except shoes.
ATQ's #1 fan of ATQ Guys
by daisyduck on Sep 8, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What do you mean by “high”?
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-I-M-P-A-T-I-E-N-T".
"YOU ARE THE KING OF THE AWESOME GUYS, JSHUFELT!!!" - daisyduck
High. As in :We smoked it all."
"What you are entrusted to do as a coach is to create an environment where your players have a chance to be successful." CHIP KELLY
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