FanPost

Shufelt Poll: Week 1 (The Pointless Edition)

Well, it's the first week. This means some oddball results for a computer based resume poll. Because there really is no resume to show outside of MOV and the FCS bias - since that is all we have to work with and there is no other inputs to factor in, we get strange results.

First, everyone that did not play an FCS school gets away with a VoW Avg of 0.000 (See below for definitions). Why? (Great question!) Because they don't get hit with any FCS penalty and they put up X number of points and allowed Y number of points to a school that has allowed X number of points and put up Y. Mathematically, they cancel each other out.

What does that mean for this first week? Well, the best team is going to end up being the team with the highest Margin of Victory because they have a resume that is effectively and applicably zero.

2011 Computer Poll Top 25 Resumes - Week 1

RankTeamVoW AvgTeam VAvg
1 Mississippi State (1-0) 0.000 5.684
2 Stanford (1-0) 0.000 4.278
3 Ohio State (1-0) 0.000 3.837
4 Bowling Green (1-0) 0.000 3.812
5 Alabama (1-0) 0.000 3.790
6 Florida (1-0) 0.000 3.636
7 Boise State (1-0) 0.000 3.520
8 Florida State (1-0) 0.000 3.407
9 Wisconsin (1-0) 0.000 3.407
10 Oklahoma (1-0) 0.000 3.345
11 Texas A&M (1-0) 0.000 3.282
12 Oklahoma State (1-0) 0.000 2.936
13 Maryland (1-0) 0.000 2.873
14 Texas (1-0) 0.000 2.784
15 Florida International (1-0) 0.000 2.784
16 Northwestern (1-0) 0.000 2.757
17 Clemson (1-0) 0.000 2.706
18 Michigan (1-0) 0.000 2.706
19 Northern Illinois (1-0) 0.000 2.625
20 LSU (1-0) 0.000 2.561
21 Colorado State (1-0) 0.000 2.391
22 Ohio (1-0) 0.000 2.371
23 Pittsburgh (1-0) 0.000 2.282
24 South Carolina (1-0) 0.000 2.282
25 South Florida (1-0) 0.000 2.263

 

So using the MOV isn't entirely inaccurate when most schools play the equivalent of crab puffs their first week. We have a variety of schools in the top 10 that didn't play an FCS school that could be find on most other Top 10 polls. Some are relatively low, others are relatively high. Hi Michigan. Been a while, huh? 

I'm pleased to report nobody dropped out of the top 25. 

 

Flavor of the Week Award

This is awarded to the team that has the best win of the week. This is generally given to a team that has a solid win against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Mississippi State (5.684) @ Memphis (-5.684) W 59-14 0.000
Stanford (4.278) vs. San Jose State (-4.278) W 57-3 0.000
Ohio State (3.837) vs. Akron (-3.837) W 42-0 0.000
Bowling Green (3.812) @ Idaho (-3.812) W 32-15 0.000
Alabama (3.79) vs. Kent State (-3.79) W 48-7 0.000

 

"Generally". Keep in mind, there are no bias for any FBS schools. AQ teams, conference strength or assumed success has no bearing. You'll also note that this is the top 5.

 

Bitter Sweet Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most disastrous win of the week. This is generally given to a team that played close against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Iowa State (0.282) vs. Northern Iowa (-4.643) W 20-19 -4.360
Kansas State (0.549) vs. E Kentucky (-4.643) W 10-7 -4.094
Wyoming (0.549) vs. Weber State (-4.643) W 35-32 -4.094
Washington (0.549) vs. Eastern Washington (-4.643) W 30-27 -4.094
Louisville (1.6) vs. Murray State (-4.643) W 21-9 -3.043

 

Hey look! Actual VoW score! Iowa State starts off with an applicable resume score with their embarssingly tough fight vs. the mighty (google > "Northern Iowa team mascot") TC Panthers! Wait... TC? Did they lose to an MLS team?

How bad is Kansas State's offense? They struggled to put up 10 points against the other directional Kentucky school Colonels (Googled that one too). Approximately half of K-State's passing yards were caught by former Oregon QB/WR experiment, Chris Harper, with a stat line of 4 Rec, 61 Yds, and 1 TD.

 

No Shame Award

This is awarded to the team that had the most respectable loss of the week. This is generally given to the team that played well against a good team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Louisiana Tech (-0.417) @ Southern Miss (0.417) L 17-19 0.000
Minnesota (-0.417) @ USC (0.417) L 17-19 0.000
TCU (-0.417) @ Baylor (0.417) L 48-50 0.000
Middle Tennessee (-0.549) @ Purdue (0.549) L 24-27 0.000
UCLA (-0.677) @ Houston (0.677) L 34-38 0.000

 

All your members here are those that had a close loss against an FBS team. Funny enough, I think if I tacked these results into last year poll, they'd end up on the other side of the same coin - the Facepalm Award. (Nice segue, me!)

 

Facepalm Award

This is awarded to the team that really should be embarrassed for their loss. This is generally given to the team that played poorly against a bad team.

Team (Team VAvg)Opp (Team VAvg)ScoreVoW
Duke (-2.132) vs. Richmond (-4.643) L 21-23 -6.775
Oregon State (-1.997) vs. Sacramento State (-4.643) L 28-29 -6.640
Memphis (-5.684) vs. Mississippi State (5.684) L 14-59 0.000
San Jose State (-4.278) @ Stanford (4.278) L 3-57 0.000
Akron (-3.837) Ohio State (3.837) L 0-42 0.000

 

If you thought our siblings to the north were going to win this one - you obviously didn't see the two point loss to Duke received from Richmond. They just stole this one from OSU.  Those two teams losing to FCS schools will be the brunt of the hate from their conferences, because that will just tanking their VoW.

 

Conference Rankings

Conference resume strength, sorted by VoW Avg.

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 WAC - (1-6) -1.594 1.594 0.000
2 Sun Belt - (1-8) -1.880 1.880 0.000
3 SEC - (10-2) 2.051 -2.378 -0.327
4 C-USA - (5-6) -0.908 0.438 -0.470
5 MAC - (8-5) 0.609 -1.101 -0.492
6 Independent - (2-2) -0.067 -0.438 -0.504
7 Big Ten - (10-2) 2.185 -2.713 -0.528
8 Big East - (8-0) 2.682 -3.358 -0.676
9 MWC - (5-3) 0.669 -1.703 -1.034
10 ACC - (8-4) 1.473 -2.514 -1.041
11 Big 12 - (10-0) 2.102 -3.283 -1.181
12 Pac-12 - (8-4) 1.018 -2.410 -1.392

 

Why does this look this way? It's quite simple, really. Schools that didn't load up on FCS were the other season appetizers for the AQ conferences. They didn't schedule many FCS schools, so their VoW Avg is at (or close to) zero. The ACC took a hit from Duke losing to an FCS school and scheduling 4 others. The Big-12 scheduled 4 (A slightly larger percentage) as well. The Pac-12 got OSU's gift, Washington's EWU close call contribution, +4 more FCS schools. Yes. Half the Pac-12 scheduled FCS schools in the first week. 

 

Pac-12 Conference Rankings

RankConferenceTeam VAvgOpp VAvgVoW Avg
1 Stanford - (1-0) 4.278 -4.278 0.000
2 California - (1-0) 1.704 -1.704 0.000
3 USC - (1-0) 0.417 -0.417 0.000
4 UCLA - (0-1) -0.677 0.677 0.000
5 Colorado - (0-1) -2.098 2.098 0.000
6 Oregon - (0-1) -2.561 2.561 0.000
7 Washington State - (1-0) 3.883 -4.643 -0.759
8 Arizona State - (1-0) 3.407 -4.643 -1.236
9 Arizona - (1-0) 3.216 -4.643 -1.426
10 Utah - (1-0) 2.098 -4.643 -2.545
11 Washington - (1-0) 0.549 -4.643 -4.094
12 Oregon State - (0-1) -1.997 -4.643 -6.640

 

Funny enough, the best school that did schedule an FCS for the first week was WSU.  But really, there was only one great win for the conference, thanks to Stanford, the Pac-12 didn't look ENTIRELY inept its first week.


Next week, I'll bring back the most and least exciting upcoming game, plus the "Man vs. Machine".

 

About the Poll

  • It has a memory. It will remember what happened in Week 1. Team A may look bad Week 1, but in Week 6, they don't look so bad. 
    •  That means the values are dynamic. To take an example from this year, Boise State squeaked by a highly ranked Virginia Tech team. The next week, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. Boise State's close call to Virginia Tech does not look NEARLY as impressive now. Week 1 scores will actually change dynamically based upon results, not just Week 1, but every week of college football.
  • Style points matter. This includes the margin of victory. Nobody is impressed when you pull of a 1 point squeaker to Saint Mary’s school of the blind. But everyone would be impressed when Alabama is beaten 35-0. MOV matters, but it has diminishing returns. The point difference between winning by 50 and winning by 70 is practically infinitesimal. 
  • There has been a bonus for shutting a team out, however, I lowered the base amount for this bonus, and added an additional formula that raises and lowers the bonus based upon the quality of the opponent. You will always get extra points for shutting a team out, but you won't get as much against a really bad team, however you can potentially earn MORE than before if you shutout a good team.
  • There is no pride in playing an FCS team.
  • Location has a small influence on the scoring. A slight penalty for the home team, and a slight bonus for the visiting team. Neutral fields cancel each other out.
  • There are bonus points for winning, and penalties for losing. This isn't a significant part of the formula, but it is factored.
  • There are three main values. (There are several formulas that make up these values, but I am going to try and simplify it). A score of 0 is neither good nor bad. 
    • Team Avg (Team Average); This is simply your team’s performance in a game based upon a formula I’ve made up.
    • Opp Avg (Opponent Average); This is an aggregated value of your opponent's Team Average. 
    • VoW Avg (Value of Win Average.); This is the resume score. Good team vs. Good team will = Great ; Bad team vs. bad team = Awful
      • I’ll also be putting up a number next to each extra curricular awards. This is the VoW, (Value of Win). It is a score that factors in the Team's performance vs. their Opponent's resume. A team with a large win vs. a great team will result in a great VoW.
    • I can make the numbers simple for you to understand. Negative is bad, positive is good. The further the number is from 0, the more extreme it is. -5 is bad, +5 is good. 0 represents neither good nor bad. This is applicable to all the scores you'll see.
  • You get points for playing well against good teams, win or lose. You'll get more for beating good teams, but there is no shame for losing to a good team - as long as it is actually a good team. If you're 4-0, but it's all against FCS teams and the New Mexicos, you'll probably have a decent Team Avg, but your Opp Avg is going to make an embarrassment out of your team.
  • Prior to week 1, ALL FBS teams are equal. Previous years have no influence on the poll.
  • There are no bonus or penalty points for being in or absent in a BCS conference.
  • A team's opponent's opponent's opponent's opponent's (potentiality infinite) score has influence on a team's perception. Meaning: Texas Tech's (Who played New Mexico, who played Oregon) score will influence Oregon's score.
  • You now probably know more about my computer poll than the ones that actually influence the BCS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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