The Chip Kelly Statistic: washington Week

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A look at how Oregon and its opponent perform in what Chip Kelly calls the only statistic they discuss; the response to turnover.

Let me clarify something before we look at this week's match up. I do not consider this "statistic" to be vetted as an advanced metric in measuring the success or failure of any team. If you want those, go see Bill C. at Football Study Hall. To me, this is more of a "situational statistic" that can be used to compare an aspect of each team. Think of it like you would if you were looking at Oregon's passing numbers on 3rd down with 10+ yards to go versus washington's. There are things you can compare (number of passing plays, % of completions, # of interceptions, etc). This one situational stat doesn't give us any real meaningful insight into the team or their overall performance because it doesn't account for time and score of the game, field position, coaching strategies, etc. What it does show is how a team performs in one situation, and usually a pretty critical one at that.

Same thing could be applied here. For example, I think looking at the Chip Kelly Statistic tells me something about the depth and conditioning of a team. I don't believe that Kelly calls plays any different before or after a turnover and neither does Aliotti. What I presume is that a team that is better conditioned is going to be able to perform and execute better on less than expected rest. It is true that a 50 yard pass that is intercepted on 2nd down isn't any different field position wise than a 50 yard punt. What is different is that when a team lines up for a punt, the defense has had extra plays to rest and is prepared to go in.

Oregon prides themselves on their conditioning, depth and ability to wear teams down on both sides of the ball, and a response to turnover is a great situational stat to look at how that conditioning and preparation is working in comparison to other teams in the conference. I really can't think of another way of comparing conditioning and depth that have real game consequences.

Finally, I plan on expanding on this as the season progresses so bare with me as I do this. I also plan on taking some of your advice and adding in at the end of the season a comparison to total possessions. Other suggestions are encouraged, and depending on my time and interest will get included.

Onto to this week's matchup.

Again, Oregon's defense had another stellar week. On the 2 turnovers that the offense gave away, Washington State was only able to walk away with 3 points. As well, Oregon's offense continues to perform at better rates than 2011 as they turned 2 of WSU's turnovers into 7 points (thanks for the pick-six Mr. Patterson). While the total turnover numbers may be high (especially compared to what washington is doing) the production on defense and offense after the turnover is exceptional.

Looking at washington, the first thing that sticks out is the fact that they have only turned the ball over 4 times all year. Unfortunately, the defense has only kept the opposing team out of the endzone once afterwards. And the offensive statistics are even worse. 50% of the time when washington's defense causes a turnover, the offense is coming away with zero points and their defense is giving up twice as many yards as their offense is producing on average. Talk about being able to flip field position.

This is the type of team you want to attack on both sides of the ball. If you give up a turnover by being aggressive in your offensive play calling, washington will struggle to capitalize on it. Also, if you attack and force a turnover on defense, washington's defense is going to have trouble keeping you out of the endzone.

The updated spreadsheet is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Asqc5wli-6y1dGlKbXZwRnVVRklVaU1iODFuaDd5amc

Here is a look at both Oregon and washington.

Oregon 2012

2012 Opponent TO Turnover Caused Yards After TO Points Scored Oregon TO Turnover Given Yards Given Up Points Given Up
Arkansas St 3 1 22 7 1 1 41 3
1 73 7
1 7 0
Fresno State 0 3 1 22 7
1 4 3
1 67 3
Tenn Tech 2 1 65 7 3 1 23 7
1 32 7 1 7 0
1 89 7
Arizona 5 1 88 7 3 1 -7 0
1 43 3 1 21 0
1 88 7 1 15 0
1 54 7
1 33 7
Washington State 2 1 9 0 2 1 39 3
1 34 7 1 18 0
Total TO 12 Total TO 12
Ave Yds After TO 45.67 Ave Yds Given Up 28.25
Ave Pts After TO 5.50 Ave Pts After TO 2.75
# of Empty Poss 2 # of Empty Poss 5
Empty Poss % 17% Empty Poss % 42%
# of TD Poss 9 # of TD Poss 3
# of TD Poss % 75% # of TD Poss % 25%

washington 2012

2012 Opponent TO Turnover Caused Yards After TO Points Scored Washington TO Turnover Given Yards Given Up Points Given Up
San Diego St 3 1 35 7 1 1 -12 0
1 11 0
1 50 3
LSU 1 1 4 3 1 1 73 7
Portland State 2 1 21 7 1 1 43 7
1 17 0
Stanford 2 1 2 0 1 1 40 7
1 4 0
Total TO 8 Total TO 4
Ave Yds After TO 18.00 Ave Yds Given Up 36.00
Ave Pts After TO 2.50 Ave Pts After TO 5.25
# of Empty Poss 4 # of Empty Poss 1
Empty Poss % 50% Empty Poss % 25%
# of TD Poss 2 # of TD Poss 3
# of TD Poss % 25% # of TD Poss % 75%
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