The Chip Kelly Statistic: USC Week

Scott Olmos-US PRESSWIRE

After a couple of weeks off, the Chip Kelly Statistic makes its return for the important game against USC.

Sorry to all the fans of this "made up" stat, but it has been a couple of weeks since we've gotten an update on how Oregon is doing in the Chip Kelly Statistic. Since Oregon faces its toughest opponent of the year, I thought it would be a good time review how the Ducks are doing.

The offense continues to be on a tear as they average 5.3 points per turnover. At this point in the season, it's a rarity if you're keeping the Ducks out of the endzone after you give up a turnover. In fact outside of end of game situations, Oregon has only been held scoreless after a turnover once, against WSU. The 74% TD percentage after turnover is absolutely ridiculous compared to USC's 43%.

On defense, the last couple of games haven't been Oregon's best as they've given up 3 straight touchdowns after turnovers. On a whole, their numbers are very similar to 2011's complete season so a regression to the mean isn't outside of expectations.

For USC, while many fans have lamented the number of times Oregon has been careless with the football, the Trojans have been just as bad. This doesn't bode well for them. USC's offense is not nearly as prolific at converting scores after a turnover, and their 43% empty possession rate, plays right into Oregon's ability to capitalize on making this a sloppy game. If the ball starts flying around for both sides, look for Oregon's offense to be the ones that quickly stretch this game out into a multi-score affair and turn USC into a one dimensional offense.

Surprisingly, USC's defense has been pretty good at limiting teams, but this is the best and most opportunistic offense they've run up against all season.

Here is a look at both Oregon and USC

Oregon 2012

Oregon Offense Oregon Defense
2012 Opponent TO Turnover Caused Yards After TO Points Scored Oregon TO Turnover Given Yards Given Up Points Given Up
Arkansas St 3 1 22 7 1 1 41 3
1 73 7
1 7 0
Fresno State 0 3 1 22 7
1 4 3
1 67 3
Tenn Tech 2 1 65 7 3 1 23 7
1 32 7 1 7 0
1 89 7
Arizona 5 1 88 7 3 1 -7 0
1 43 3 1 21 0
1 88 7 1 15 0
1 54 7
1 33 7
Washington State 2 1 9 0 2 1 39 3
1 34 7 1 18 0
Washington 5 1 20 7 2 1 13 0
1 64 7 1 9 0
1 41 7
1 35 7
1 29 0
Arizona State 4 1 6 7 2 1 28 7
1 1 7 1 32 7
1 16 0
1 5 0
Colorado 2 1 17 7 1 1 31 7
1 32 7
Total TO 23 Total TO 17
Ave Yds After TO 35.39 Ave Yds Given Up 26.59
Ave Pts After TO 5.30 Ave Pts After TO 3.18
# of Empty Poss 5 # of Empty Poss 7
Empty Poss % 22% Empty Poss % 41%
# of TD Poss 17 # of TD Poss 6
# of TD Poss % 74% # of TD Poss % 35%

USC 2012

USC Offense USC Defense
2012 Opponent TO Turnover Caused Yards After TO Points Scored USC TO Turnover Given Yards Given Up Points Given Up
Hawaii 4 1 21 7 1 1 0 0
1 70 7
1 29 3
1 37 0
Syracuse 2 1 41 0 1 1 50 7
1 43 7
Stanford 2 1 0 0 3 1 36 0
1 30 0 1 0 0
1 42 0
California 2 1 8 0 3 1 9 0
1 69 3 1 -3 0
1 30 0
Utah 2 1 34 7 2 1 8 7
1 39 7 1 13 7
Washington 4 1 34 7 1 1 58 7
1 61 0
1 3 0
1 6 0
Colorado 6 1 80 7 2 1 23 3
1 17 7 1 -6 0
1 29 7
1 9 0
1 80 7
1 41 3
Arizona 1 1 0 0 5 1 60 7
1 30 0
1 31 0
1 1 3
1 37 7
Total TO 23 Total TO 18
Ave Yds After TO 33.96 Ave Yds Given Up 23.28
Ave Pts After TO 3.43 Ave Pts After TO 2.67
# of Empty Poss 10 # of Empty Poss 10
Empty Poss % 43% Empty Poss % 56%
# of TD Poss 10 # of TD Poss 6
# of TD Poss % 43% # of TD Poss % 33%
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