Oregon's offense looks to bounce back from a poor game against Stanford. Don't worry Duck fans, this is still a great offense.
Before we talk about anything else, I think we need to take a deep breath and remember just how good this Oregon offense is. According to S&P+, Oregon is the best offense in the country. In raw Success Rate and Points Per Play, they are #1 in the country. In traditional metrics, Oregon is still a top 10 offense, 4th in the country in yards per game and 11th in the country in yards per play. They are 2nd in the country in points per game.
This Oregon offense is really, really good. Their only weakness is passing downs, but even then they have improved in the S&P rankings as the season has gone on. They have completely dominated almost every game this season.
I think this needs to be said because many Duck fans are still in shock over the offensive performance against Stanford. The Ducks had their worst performance of the season in just about every category, and led to a paltry 14 points. But this isn't the norm. Oregon's offense doesn't just stop being great because of one performance.
In the Civil War, I expect Oregon to top 40 points at least. They are a great offense going up against against a good (borderline top 25) defense.
The first thing to keep in mind is that Oregon State isn't Stanford. The Cardinal are the best team in the country at tackles for loss. They disrupt opposing offenses and get into the backfield. OSU does not do this. They rank 65th in the country in tackles for loss. They have done well in stopping the run at times, but they have not consistently demonstrated the key to stopping Oregon's offense: controlling the line of scrimmage and getting into the backfield with the front 7.
Oregon State has a much better defensive backfield than Stanford (noted by their excellent passing down defensive statistics), but if they can't get early stops, that won't have a big impact on the game.
I think that the Oregon offense bounces back strongly this week. They are a great offense, and OSU doesn't present the systematic challenges that have typically stymied Chip Kelly. The performance against Stanford wasn't the norm, and I expect the Ducks to play closer to their season averages on Saturday.