Bracketology ain't easy, but Ducks still control their fate

I was all ready to tell you why I think Oregon is more deserving than Northwestern. Then the CAA Championship happened last night, and when I saw that many people still had Drexel in, I wrote up a piece on Drexel and scheduled it for publish, telling you why Oregon was definitely a more deserving team than the Dragons.

And this morning I nuked that piece out of existence.

Oh, I think Oregon is more deserving than Drexel, with their 272 SOS (which would be the worst ever for an at large) and three horrible losses. And by every metric, the Pac-12 is much better than the Colonial. But Drexel also won 25 of 26, that's pretty impressive regardless of the competition. I also think Oregon is more deserving than Northwestern, with their losing record in the Big Ten. Then again, the Big Ten is the best conference in the country, how would Northwestern done in the Pac-12?

But I kept finding that all my arguments were subjective based on my point of view. It was easy to compare Oregon and Washington, because that's apples to apples. Comparing across leagues isn't so easy. Oregon has gotten substantially better, lost their big non-conference games without their first team all league player in Devoe Joseph, has played extremely well the last month of the season, and definitely passes the eye test. But you now who else can make the same argument? Tennessee. And while they have some terrible losses, they have more top end wins than the Ducks do.

I guess what I'm saying is that, as I go through numbers, I agree with with many of the pundits. If Oregon is worthy of at large inclusion, they have to be able to beat a top-100 Colorado on a neutral floor, then have to show that they can beat California for once in three tries. If they do that, everyone seems to think they're in. And I think they will do that. If they only win one of those games, they are squarely on the bubble, and we are at the mercy of the committee. Yes, there are reasons why Oregon should be picked in that situation, but other teams have compelling reasons as well.

Win the tourney and Oregon is in. Win two, and Oregon is very probably in. Win one, its bubble city. Lose to Colorado? I think Oregon is out, and probably deservedly so.

In short, I'm done getting worked up trying to make the case for Oregon. They need to go out and make the case for themselves.

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