So, this is all to say for the purposes of this article, Oregon wins against Arizona and Oregon State. Before we start talking about carts and horses and all that tomfoolery remember this is an exercise in prognostication and who doesn't love prognosticating?
There are three teams who are able to represent the south. At this time Arizona State, UCLA and USC could all come to the "neutral site" of Autzen Stadium to play the Ducks for the Pac-12 championship. In the last two weeks of the regular season, all three face games which will directly impact the south's representitive in the championship game.
@ #14 UCLA, Arizona (Predicted outcome 1-1, 60% chance of representing the south)
The Devils are in much the same boat as the Ducks in that if they take care of business they earn an opportunity to go to the Rose Bowl. While they should be able to dispatch Arizona at home, a rivalry game can never be taken for granted. I still think they beat the 'Cats by at least two scores, but in a rivalry game you can never count out the underdog.
As for their meeting in Westwood, I have to give the edge to the Bruins. They're playing quality ball right now and were the only team out of these three who have had a shot at knocking off the Ducks.
If the Sun Devils do fall to the Bruins, they will need the Trojans to beat UCLA to make their way to the championship.
#19 Arizona State, @ #23 USC (Projected outcome 1-1, 30% chance of representing the south)
UCLA comes into the home stretch with the distinction of being the only team who has actually represented the south in the conference championship game. The Bruins feature the most challenging schedule of the three and their games against ASU and USC come at the end of the season when a team needs to be at it's best.
As mentioned, I think the Bruins top ASU but I think they falter against USC. They absolutely have to win out to see Eugene for a second time this season. One UCLA loss puts the Sun Devils back in the driver seat but if the Bruins best them and the Trojans they will be in the championship.
USC Trojans (Projected outcome 2-0, 10% of representing the south)
@ Colorado, #14 UCLA
Beating Stanford didn't put the Trojans in the driver seat in the south, but at least they're in the car. They need the most help out of any of the three teams. According to the Tabormetrics, USC is likely to win their last two games and finish the Kiffin free zone on a 6 game winning streak.
Because of the loss to Arizona State earlier in the season, USC needs to win both of their games and see Arizona State lose both to UCLA and Arizona. If the Trojans beat the Bruins and the Sun Devils beat the Wildcats, the Devils still go to the championship. As mentioned, the Trojans need a lot of help but coach O making his Autzen debut is still a possibility.
I still think Arizona State takes the south but this covers all the possible scenarios that allow for any of these three teams to take the south.