Trying to figure out what the final top 10 rankings will be, specifically where the Ducks are most likely to finish. My worksheet looks like this:
#10 Oregon (11-2) beat unranked Tx, 30-7
#3 Alabama (11-2) lost to #11 (10-2) Oklahoma (10-2) , 45-31
#5 Stanford (11-3) lost to #4 Mich State, 24-20
#6 Baylor (10-2) lost to #15 UCF (12-1), 52-42
#7 Ohio State (12-2) lost to #12 Clemson (11-2), 40-35
#8 S.Carolina (11-2) beat #19 Wisconsin, 34-24
#9 Missouri beat # 13 OK State, 41-31
So, I'm guessing Oregon's paltry opponent in their non-BCS bowl is going to cost them, despite their domination of the storied opponent's coach.
Voters and the BCS have loved 'Bama too much all season for them to tumble too far. They have the same record as the Ducks and lost to a top 11 team, but they lost by two touchdowns. Also, Oklahoma will likely leapfrog the Ducks because of the quality of win. Oregon may actually lose ground because of this game's outcome(!).
Stanford, with one more loss, will likely rank below the Ducks, although their bowl loss was in a great game to a top 4 team, so they'll be close. Ducks move up one spot.
Baylor got upset pretty badly and could likely fall below the Ducks. However, will UCF's huge upset win launch the 1-loss them over the Ducks? Like the 'Bama/OK game, this could actually cost the Ducks a notch if Baylor doesn't slide past them and UCF leapfrogs. Or course, the opposite could be true but probably not going to happen.
Clemson's huge win over Ohio State will likely launch them above the Ducks. Will Ohio state fall below Oregon? Probably. That's only 3 spots difference and the loss at the end of the season is pretty harsh even against a quality opponent.
Prediction: Auburn/FSU both finish above the Ducks in the final rankings.
Top 10 will be (not in this order):
Bottom Line: The Ducks could finish as low as #13 or as high as #9.
Lesson learned: Should have taken care of business against Arizona and gotten into a BCS game. Quality of bowl opponent is very important.