If you haven't already seen it, the hoops schedule was released yesterday.  All I have to say is ugh.  Don't get me wrong--the last couple of years I would have loved this schedule.  But not next year.

To be blunt, I don't have the feeling that we'll be really good next year.  I believe in our players, but I also think that they will be way too young.  Tajuan will have a much better year, and Catron will be very good.   But is Brown ready to be a starting point guard?  How good will Dunigan be starting as a freshman?  Can LeKendric find a way to score?  Can Frantz, Odia, and Ben Voogd contribute in any way?  How ready will the freshmen be?  Sure, with the talent, they could go out and be great.  But there are a lot of unknowns, and I think that they are likely a year away.

The schedule won't be doing them any favors.  There are only four games that I consider "gimmes" (No. Colorado, Oakland, LBSU, and Portland, and we all remember Oakland last year).  San Diego, St. Mary's, and at UC-Irvine are all tough games, and the Maui Invitational will be really tough (UNC, Texas, etc), as will Utah.  I'm actually not too worried about KSU, as I don't think they'll be too great without Beasley and Walker.

Hopefully, we'll be better than my gut tells me, but I think this would've been the year to load up on mostly cupcakes.

GO DUCKS!!!

--Dave (addictedtoquack@gmail.com)

As was noted by pointguard10 in the diaries, Drew Viney has received his release and will look to transfer to his school in Southern California.

The R-G confirmed today that Kamyron Brown will stay at Oregon, despite some thoughts to the contrary.

I had pegged Viney as a big part of our team next year. Not only can Viney shoot, but the only guys bigger than him on the roster next year are Dunigan, Crittle, and Frantz (who is no longer playing football, BTW). And, as I'm not sure Frantz and Crittle are going to contribute a whole lot next year, Viney would've been huge.

That means our roster is likely to have seven new players next year--thats over half the team. And with EK on the hot seat, that might not be good for him. We have two open scholarships--so expect to see two new players signed in a few weeks. We are recruiting two PGs--Brad Tinsley out of Oregon City, and Garrett Sim out of Sunset, so expect us to land one of those. I'm sure EK doesn't want two point guards, so expect him to scan the leftovers out there for someone with some size, maybe out of the JUCO rosters. JUCOs can be hit or miss, but if we could find a Robert Johnson out there on the scrap heap again, we really need a player like that.

This is our roster for next year as it stands now:

Dorsainvil	C	Sr.
Odia	SG	Jr.
Porter	SG	Jr.
Catron	PF	Jr.
Voogd	PG	Jr.
Longmire	SF	So.
Brown	PG	So.
Dunigan	C	Fr.
Crittle	PF	Fr.
Williams	SG	Fr.
Humphrey	SF	Fr.
Wiley	SF	Fr.
Tinsley/Sim	PG	Fr.
JUCOForward?	PF	?

That's a whole ton of freshmen. And, of the upper classmen, I don't see Frantz or Voogd contributing a whole lot. And we know that nothing much happens when Odia's in the game either. This could be our starting lineup:

Dunigan, Catron, Odia, Porter, Brown.

Ugh.

It could be a long season, especially with our brutal non-conference schedule. The good news is we don't lose anything except Frantz after next year, so the team will have some time to grow. The question is, will EK have that leeway?

We understand Drew's wish to be closer to his family, however, and wish him the best in his future endeavors. There is no restrictions on where he could go and, although I hope he doesn't go to USC or UCLA, they are open options for him. Especially as UCLA is going to have some open scholarships with KLove's declaration.

Update [2008-4-19 19:5:41 by Dave]: It was pointed out that I can't count and was off by a scholarship. I guess Tinsley or Sim will be our only addition (no JUCO PF). Perhaps EK knew Drew was thinking about leaving before he did (otherwise why was he still recruiting). Anyway, this leaves us even smaller.

GO DUCKS!!!

--Dave

Okay guys....

Never once did I say fire Ernie.  I don't advocate that, and I don't want that.  I'm just pointing out that we need a better strategy than jacking up threes, especially with Dunigan coming.

Some people in the fire Ernie camp emailed me about my post.  That wasn't the intention.

The grass isn't always greener, and a new coach doesn't always guarantee success.

How many years has it been since OSU has made the tournament?

Changes need to be made but, at this point, the head coach is not among them.  A shakeup in the rest of the staff, and a little tweak in philosophy--that oughta do the trick.

If changes fail to be made, then we can bring up the topic again later.

Keep Ernie.

--Dave

What a frustrating game.  A ten point lead at halftime, and absolutely no reason to lose this game.  But in the second half we were outcoached--woefully.

This game was a mirror of the season.  In no game have we failed to compete.  We have had the athletes and the talent to win every game.  UCLA, USC, WSU--we were right there in all those games, and faltered in the end.  The same thing happened tonight.  The problem isn't the players.  The problem is the plan--or total lack thereof.

We shot a whopping 38 three pointers tonight.  On 64 field goal attempts.  Of those 38, we made 9.  Taylor:  1-7.  Leunen:  1-6.  Porter:  4-13.  That's a whole lot of missed shots.  I'll put aside the question of why we shot 22 threes in the second half in spite of a double digit lead.  But what's more frustrating is that there was no plan in place for when those threes stop falling.  The only response that we had tonight was to shoot more threes.  And its been that way all season.  Why was Malik--a beast down low--not posting up other guards and small forwards all season?  Why did Oregon continue to play the point all season when its clear that his strengths are at shooting guard coming off screens and spotting up?  Why are we a freelance team with very few offensive sets?  Why do we not have a competent center (no offense to Maarty--he's great.  But how great would he be as a power forward with a center playing next to him?).  

What makes teams like UCLA or Stanford so good is execution.  They have a plan.  They have sets to get them good shots at the end of games.  If they're not shooting well, they stay in games because they play excellent defense and rebound well.  If they are shooting well, then its lights out.

Our style is much like that of a pickup game.  It can be very exciting, and you can score a bunch of points in a hurry.  But, as we saw tonight, its excruciatingly painful when the shots aren't falling.  They're all long shots which not only makes offensive rebounding more difficult--but often lead to fast breaks on the other end.  We got manhandled on the interior--Charles Rhodes was amazing--but its also a product of bad defensive principles.  We played haven't played great defense since Fred Litzenberger left.  And, instead of putting out a lot of pressure defensively, we use a lot of zones and gimmicks.  And instead of stepping up the pressure when our shots aren't falling, our defense actually gets a bit worse.

In spite of all that, we've been in almost every game this season.  But, we've seen that our plan is inadequate.  The only times we've been great down the stretch is when we've had dynamic individual playmakers who could single-handedly take over a game--Freddie Jones and Aaron Brooks.  I guarantee you not every team has that.  Stanford doesn't.  WSU doesn't.  But they have a plan, and are able to play excellent defense and get good shots by executing their sets down the stretch.  We can't win without AB to take the game over.

I've been a big EK defender.  And I don't see any way that he's not back next season.  But, its also clear that unless he changes things, he is not going to take us to the next level.  EK is a great recruiter.  Now he needs to swallow his pride, shake up his coaching staff, and give his assistants some power.  Get one who's a good strategist, and one who's a good big man coach.  EK recruits and is the face of the program, these other guys get a lot of the gritty work done.  See, Ernie, I've stood by you.  I've defended you on the blog.  I feel like we owe you a lot for taking us to levels we've never seen before.  But learn, dammit, learn.  Grow as a coach.  Recognize your weaknesses.  Its okay to have weaknesses--every coach does.  But, instead of being stubborn, put people around you who can compliment you by making up for those shortcomings.  Its not a bad thing to need help.  In fact, it makes you a better coach.

For Maarty, Malik, Bryce, Mitch, and Ray, thank you.  Two NCAA tournaments, an elite eight, and a Pac-10 tournament championship--few Oregon players can boast the accomplishments the you guys do.  But you deserved better this year.  How can we blame them for continuing to jack up threes--they weren't taught any better.  Hopefully, a few of them can stick in the NBA.  But I wish all of them the best of luck in life.  They stuck around, graduated, and have represented our University with class.

We have a ton of talent next year, and there is a lot to look forward to.  I dream of Javon Catron becoming a Robert Johnson type enforcer.  I dream of Michael Dunigan becoming the best big man in the conference.  I dream of TP returning to form as the best pure shooter in the country--playing his natural position off the ball.  I dream of Kamyron Brown as an elite point guard.  And LeKendric Longmire as a lock down defender.  And of all that coming together into a versatile team that can beat you in so many ways--and if one's not working, they simply pound you with another.

All the talent is there.  And you deserve the credit for bringing that talent in, Ernie.  But this season--with three big time senior starters--was unacceptable.  Make sure it doesn't happen again.  Get the people in here who can help you.  Its not a pride issue--in fact, you'll get tons of credit for it.  Just look what scrapping the traditional offense and hiring a guy like Chip Kelly did for Bellotti.  He went from on the hot seat to people being scared shitless that he was going to leave.

Your legacy is assured for taking the Ducks to this level.  And we are all grateful for that.  But, if you want to be the one to take the next step, get some help.  After all, your job depends on it.  There are rumors out that many boosters don't really care for you.  Wouldn't it be great to shove it in everyone's face and take Oregon to that next level.  

Otherwise, it may be Mark Few opening that new arena.

GO DUCKS!!!

--Dave

There are other afternoon games too, but we all know that there is only one that really matters.

Hopefully, this won't be the last time we see Malik, Bryce, and Maarty in Ducks uniforms.

Let's do it all over again:

9:15 PT

15 American vs. 2 Tennessee

9:30 PT

10 Davidson vs. 7 Gonzaga
10 St. Mary's vs. 7 Miami (FL)
12 Western Kentucky vs. 5 Drake

11:45 PT

10 South Alabama vs. 7 Butler
15 Maryland-Baltimore County vs. 2 Georgetown

12:00 PT

15 Austin Peay vs. 2 Texas
13 San Diego vs. 4 UConn

Happy Dancing!

4:10 PM

11 Kansas State vs. 6 USC
15 Belmont vs. 2 Duke

4:20 PM

13 Winthrop vs. 4 Washington State
9 Texas A&M vs. 8 BYU

6:40 PT

14 CS-Fullerton vs. 3 Wisconsin
10 Arizona vs. 7 West Virginia

6:50 PT

12 George Mason vs. 5 Notre Dame
16 Mississippi Valley State vs. 1 UCLA

Lets hope for some better games this session

--Dave

The opening Thursday-Friday of March Madness are the best two sporting days of the year.  Join me here to talk about all the action (especially if you happen to be one of the unfortunate souls at work).  Here's what's on tap for the morning tip:

9:20 PT

14 Georgia vs. 3 Xavier

9:30 PT

16 Portland State vs. 1 Kansas
12 Temple vs. 5 Michigan State

11:30 PT

11 Kentucky vs. 6 Marquette

11:50 PT

11 Baylor vs. 6 Purdue
9 Kent State vs. 8 UNLV

12:00 PT

13 Oral Roberts vs. 4 Pittsburgh

2:00 PT

14 Cornell vs. 3 Stanford

I'll put up another thread for the late games.  Please join me here to talk about the action.

--Dave

Round Two:

East

1. North Carolina
   
9. Arkansas
12. George Mason
    
4. Washington State
11. St. Joseph's
    
3. Louisville
7. Butler
   
2. Tennessee

Midwest

1. Kansas
   
8. UNLV
12. Villanova
    
4. Vanderbilt
6. USC
   
3. Wisconsin
7. Gonzaga
   
2. Georgetown

South

1. Memphis
   
9. Oregon (I want to cry)
5. Michigan State
   
4. Pittsburgh
6. Marquette
   
3. Stanford
10. St. Mary's
    
2. Texas

West

1. UCLA
   
9. Texas A&M
5. Drake
   
4. UConn
6. Purdue
   
3. Xavier
7. West Virginia
   
2. <s>overrated</s&gtDuke

Sweet Sixteen

East

1. North Carolina
   
4. Washington State
3. Louisville
   
2. Tennessee

Midwest

1. Kansas
   
4. Vanderbilt
6. USC
   
3. Georgetown

South

1. Memphis
   
4. Pittsburgh
3. Stanford
   
2. Texas

West

1. UCLA
   
4. UConn
3. Xavier
   
7. West Virginia

Elite Eight

North Carolina
Tennessee

Georgetown
Kansas

Texas
Memphis

UCLA
West Virginia

Final Four

North Carolina
Texas

UCLA
Georgetown

Championship

UCLA
North Carolina

I'll have my Duck preview up either late tonight or tomorrow.  Also, join me for an open thread and live blog for all the games tomorrow.

GO DUCKS!!!

--Dave

Update [2008-3-19 17:27:10 by Dave]: Nick posted this in the comments:

Thanks, Nick, Ill put mine up tonight!

I'm currently working on my MSU preview, but, in the meantime, here's my bracket, with commentary.  I'm to cheap to get a scanner, so this could be a bit messy.  This is just my first round.  Winners in bold:

EAST

1. UNC
   
16.  Mt. St. Mary's  
8. <s>total mess</s&gtIndiana
   
9. Arkansas
5. Notre Dame
   
12. George Mason
4. Washington State
   
13. Winthrop
6. Oklahoma
   
11. St. Joseph's
3. Louisville
   
14. Boise State
7. Butler
   
10. South Alabama
2. Tennessee
   
15. American

MIDWEST

1. Kansas
   
16. Portland State
8. UNLV
   
9. Kent State
5. Clemson
   
12. Villanova
4. Vanderbilt
   
13. Siena
6. USC
   
11. Kansas State
3. Wisconsin
   
14. CS-Fullerton
7. Gonzaga
   
10. Davidson
2. Georgetown
   
15. UMBC

SOUTH

1. Memphis
   
16. Texas-Arlington
8. Mississippi State
   
9. Oregon
5. Michigan State
   
12. Temple
4. Pitt
   
13. Oral Roberts
6. Marquette
   
11. Kentucky
3. Stanford
   
14. Cornell
7. Miami (Fla.)
   
10. St. Mary's
2. Texas
   
15. Austin Peay

WEST

1. UCLA
   
16. MVSU
8. BYU
   
9. Texas A&M
5. Drake
   
12. Western Kentucky
4. UConn
   
13. San Diego
6. Purdue
   
11. Baylor
3. Xavier
   
14. Georgia
7. West Virginia
   
10. Arizona
2. Duke
   
15. Belmont

Round Two is forthcoming.....

--Dave