We wondered how Oregon would respond after the heartbreaking loss at Colorado. We didn't think Oregon could keep up with washington's athleticism.

Garrett Sim didn't care. He went into Kobe mode, burying three in a row to start the game on an 8-0 run all by himself. It was all gravy from there, as washington couldn't handle Oregon's defensive pressure, offensive movement, and hot shooting. By the end of the game, Tony Woods was finishing alley oops, Olu was throwing down the reverse, and Carlos Emory went with the windmill. It was domination on every level, and Oregon is back to finding itself just a game out of first place in the conference. It was a great offensive effort, but even a better defensive effort. The team stats tell the tale on this one, and I'll just leave it at that for the evening:

That is the stastical profile of domination.

Oregon Ducks (16-7, 7-4) at washington huskies (16-7, 8-3)
8:00 PT :: Matthew Knight Arena :: Eugene, Oregon
TV :: Root Sports Northwest
Pomeroy Rankings :: UO (112) :: CU (62)

The huskies enter Deep in the Woods riding a 5 game winning streak which has put them into first place in the conference and on pace for another NCAA Tournament appearance. The 3 headed monster of Ross, Wroten and Wilcox gave the Ducks nightmares last time these teams met on New Years Eve. Don't look for that to change too much tonight.

Oregon has struggled all season when facing good guard play, and Uw has the best back court in the Pac 12 conference. Freshman phenom Tony Wroten is a slasher and is averaging 16.7 ppg and 3.5 assists. One area Wroten still struggles is with turnovers (91 total, and 1st in the conference) but Romar will have no problem going to junior Abdul Gaddy who has a 2.2:1 assist to turnover ratio.

CJ Wilcox missed a number of games with an injury this season, but he's healthy now, just in time to come back and try and improve on the 24 he dropped on the Ducks first time around. Starting at the two guard will be assassin Terrence Ross. Ross is top 5 in the conference in a number of categories including scoring, FGs made, and 3pt FGs attempted. He has a green light from Romar at any time, and was the main catalyst for Uw's comeback against Ucla last week.

If it feels like I'm giving a lot of praise to Uw's guards, it's because they deserve it. All of these guys are about 6'5", long, athletic and shoot the ball extremely well. Oregon's guards are going to have to play their best game of the year on both ends of the court for the Ducks to have a chance. In other words... don't hold your breath.

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I've been thinking off and on the last couple of days about the ending of the Colorado game. The foul at the end was a bad call. The Colorado announcers said it was a bad call. The replays showed it was a bad call. Ultimately, the official guessed, and anticipated contact. He guessed wrong, and it was the difference in what was a great back and forth game.

Oregon has twice in the last several years won games in very similar fashion. In 2006, at Washington State, Maarty Leunen was sent to the line with no time left and Oregon down two, and hit both to send the game to overtime. While I think in that case the replay showed Leunen was fouled, it wasn't obvious enough that anyone would have complained if the official had swallowed the whitstle. Then there was two years ago, where Washington State apparently hit the game winning shot at the overtime buzzer, but was called for a technical foul with 0.3 seconds remaining for storming the court, and the Ducks hit both free throws and eventually won in double overtime. If the Leunen call was questionable, the technical with 0.3 to go was flat out criminal, a gross bit of negligence by the official that turned a game that for all intents was over. Those examples being set, at least Washington State had a chance in overtime of both of those games to overcome the bad call.

In the Oregon/Colorado game on Sunday, the call wasn't just bad official judgment in applying a technicality, it was a flat out wrong call. A phantom foul where an official guessed wrong in the one time in the game where you absolutely don't have that luxury.

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Oregon Ducks (16--6, 7-3) at Colorado Buffaloes (15-7, 7-3)
6:00 PT :: Coors Events Center :: Boulder, Colorado
TV :: Root Sports Northwest/Rocky Mountain
Pomeroy Rankings :: UO (109) :: CU (76)
Pomeroy Prediction :: CU 72-66

Oregon makes their first ever trip to Boulder for a conference game, and due to 17' of snow on the ground, almost didn't make it there. Oregon and Colorado both currently sit in the jumbled mess that is second place in the Pac-12 standings, where they are in a three way tie with California, all a game behind Washington. After dropping the Civil War at home last weekend, this is a game the Ducks must win in order to keep that small hope for a conference title alive. Unfortunately, in addition to Colorado being pretty good (by Pac-12 standards, anyway), Boulder is also a very difficult place to win, owing not just to the fanbase, but the thin Colorado air as well. Tad Boyle is an outstanding coach, the guy Matt Daddy wanted Oregon to hire when they hired Altman, and is doing a great job in Boulder.

Like Oregon State, Colorado is a difficult matchup for the Ducks because of their guard play. Oregon has struggled with good guards all season, and its not uncommon for Colorado to go to four guard sets. Andre Roberson is their rock down low, and don't let his 6'7" frame fool you. Roberson is an absolute load down low. He averages 11 points, 11 rebounds, and two blocks a game. He makes up for most of their defensive inefficiencies by protecting the lane. And offensively, he is a nice post up player who is also not afraid to take it outside and drain the three. Austin Dufault is another capable post who at 6'9" also chips in 11 a game. 6'11" Shane Harris-Tunks will also see time, but he is much more raw an non-impactful than Roberson or Dufault.

Of the guards, senior Carlon Brown is their primary offensive player who can score in multiple ways, but also look out for freshman Spencer Dinwidde, who also goes for double digits, and probably would have been a Duck had Oregon offered at the two instead of the point (they thought some guy named Brown was going to play the two. Sigh.). Brown and Dinwiddie are also excellent rebounders for guards as well. Askia Booker and Nate Tomlinson round out the four guard rotation. All of them can shoot the three, all of them can take it to the hole, and all of them rebound, makng Colorado an especially tough matchup. I'd expect that we'll see zone most of the game to try and prevent the dribble penetration, but the Ducks will have to get out on shooters and rebound well. Its pick your poision with these guys.

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Does the name Mercedes Russell ring a bell to you? She's the #1 women's basketball recruit in the country. In 2010-11, as a high school sophomore, she averaged 25 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks per game en route to a state championship and being named state player of the year, and she's doing equally impressive things this season.

And she just happens to live in Springfield, Oregon.

Sure, she's taken a visit to Oregon. But she's also showing a ton of interest in the schools where she actually has a chance to be successful: UConn, Tennessee, Louisville, etc. (why do we think UConn scheduled a game at Matt Court next year). We know how this game goes. Last year's #8 recruit in the country, Shoni Schimmel out of Franklin High in Portland, showed no more than token interest in Oregon before landing at Louisville. I'm hoping the recruitment of Russell is different, but I'm not holding my breath.

Oregon is completely irrelevant in the world of women's basketball. Thing is, it wasn't always this way, and doesn't have to be going forward.

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Oregon State Beavers (13-7, 3-5) at Oregon Ducks (15-5, 6-2)

3:30 PT, Matthew Knight Arena

TV: FSN/ROOT (national)

Pomeroy Rankings: Oregon State (68), Oregon (102)

Pomeroy Prediction: Oregon 78-77

The Oregon Ducks should not be the first place team in the Pac-12.

The advanced stats tell the story. They rank in the second half of the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They've faced the second toughest in-conference SOS to date. Pomeroy's rankings have them ranked #102 in the nation, which is good for eighth in the conference, in front of only USC, Utah, ASU, and Washington State. And during Oregon's four game win streak, they've actually gone down in those rankings. If you listened to this week's podcast, Matt Daddy expressed his concern that Oregon was winning ugly, and has major question marks as to whether Oregon can sustain this level for the long haul. I guarantee you that every statistician would agree that the Ducks are due for some regression to the mean.

Indeed, that is what you would expect. In baseball, the sport where advanced statistical analysis is most developed, teams that outperform their Pythogorean W/L formula pretty much to a tee regress the next season (something that as a Mariners fan I know all too well). But there are teams that, for whatever reason, outperform projections for an entire season. Whether there is something quantifiable that makes up being "clutch," or if its just a statistical fluke, it does happen. Further, basketball is different than baseball. This team has gotten better since earlier in the season. It plays defense consistently enough not to get blown out. And the guys who are taking most of the shots at the end of close games (EG, Garrett, Devoe), hit from both the field and the line at very good rates. This isn't a tough conference at all this season, and Oregon has gone on this streak playing less than stellar basketball. What happens when they start putting together full games?

In short, I have no idea whether this is sustainable. There are very good reasons to believe that it is or isn't. Me? I'm just going to enjoy the fact that we have winning basketball in Eugene again, and see where that takes us. When you can remember going 2-16 in the conference, its pretty tough to complain about first place, regardless of how we've gotten there.

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UCLA Bruins (10-8, 3-3 Pac-12) vs Oregon Ducks (14-5, 5-2 Pac-12)

1pm PST :: Matthew Knight Arena

TV: Root/FSN (if you're lucky)

Oregon sits at 5-2, with a chance to get their 4th straight victory in conference play. The Ducks didn't play the best against USC, but they got the job done. UCLA is reeling, but they will provide another tough test for the Ducks.

This is one of the biggest Oregon basketball games in recent memory. A win keeps the Ducks in contention for the conference title, something few imagined at the start of the season.

Stick around and discuss the game. GO DUCKS!

USC Trojans (5-13, 0-5) at Oregon Ducks 13-5 (4-2)

5:30 PM :: Matthew Knight Arena

TV: Comcast Sportsnet Northwest

Our roundball warriors return from their sweep in the desert to Matthew Knight Arena to take on the Trojans of Southern California. USC stands at 5-13, and the only winless team in the conference. USC is is about as one dimensional as a team can get. Defensively, they are elite. They rank 31^st in the nation in defensive efficiency, giving up only 94 points per 100 possessions. They are sixth in the country in opponents' turnover percentage, at over 26%. They have height. They will play an in-your-face man to man defense and pressure you. They haven't gi ven up more than 66 points all season.

The problem with SC is that they just cannot score. At all. They rank 299^th in offensive efficiency. 322^nd in effective field goal percentage. 303^rd in three point percentage. 277^th in getting to the foul line, and when they do get there, they rank 335^th in percentage. I've never seen a team throw up so many bricks, and USC has built entire subdivisions at this point. They may be the worst shooting team in Pac-10 history.

5'7" guard Maurice Jones is the Trojans' leading scorer at 14.2 ppg, but he does so on only 34% shooting. He actually shoots better from the three point line, so while I would expect Oregon to play mostly zone against such a poor shooting team, Jones is the one guy they really need to make sure to get out on. 6'6" post Aaron Fuller is their most efficient player, getting his 10.6 points on 51% shooting, but he has no range whatsoever, and I would think that an Ashaolu/Nared combination would be pretty effective defensively at limiting his offense. Nobody else on the roster scares you from a scoring standpoint: DeWayne Dedmon is a seven footer averaging seven points and a high FG%, but doesn't have any games where he's put up more than ten or eleven points. And everyone else shoot abysmally: G Byron Wesley (37%), G Alexis Moore (31%), F Garrett Jackson (41% for a forward), and guard Greg Allen (31%) round out their rotation. Oregon doesn't need to get complicated defensively. They need to play a solid zone, keep the ball from Fuller, and force USC's guards to make plays. Most likely, the guards will not be able to do that.

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