Preliminary Thoughts: ASU
by David Piper on Oct 29, 2007 7:34 PM PDT
in Oregon Ducks Football
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PrintYou guys know that I've been on the ASU bandwagon all season. As soon as they hired Dennis Erickson, I knew they'd be good. This good? I'm not sure we knew that. But good. And anyone who thinks that this is going to be some kind of rout has another thing coming. This game is going to be a dogfight. A look at the most key stats shows that things are pretty damn even in a lot of areas (all stats from Pac-10.org):
Scoring Offense:
- Oregon 43.8
- ASU 36.9
- ASU 15.6
- Oregon 21.9
- ASU +7
- Oregon +6
That's about as even a matchup as you can get. ASU's defense a bit better, Oregon's offense a bit better, but even in a lot of ways. To find a winner, you have to look at little things that might work in a team's favor. I have three for Oregon:
- Autzen. ASU hasn't played in that kind of an environment all year long
- Dixon. He's mobile and can make plays with his feet. Rudy Carperter is not.
- Penalties. Oregon is the second least penalized team in the conference. Arizona State is the second worst.
GO DUCKS!!!
--Dave
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I might be willing to concede a slight advantage at the QB position to the ducks. There I said it--I hope you're happy. It dosen't amount to much though. Dixon is the better ball handler and runner, carpenter is the much better passer. These are the #1&2 QBs in the pac by any measure--with little separation. Oh yeah--I'd love to see Dixon take some hits from this defense in space--that is the kind of thing that could really effect the outcome--if you get my gist. Anyways in a game like this I think I would prefer to have the better pure passer. Carpenter does makes plays with his feet--in the classic sense--he's just not a threat to take it to the house like your guy.
The penalty thing is just one of those bogus statistics--that really hasn't affected the flow of any of our games. We had one bad penalty game with about 10 PF--throw that out and we are right there with the rest of the conference
One thing I will note
Also, I think that Dixon will hurt the ASU D on 3rd down, and he, IMO is the solre reason we are leading the Pac-10 in 3rd down conversion. Dixon can turn a 3rd and 10+ into a first down easily. He is the reason alone for our stunning 3rd down success.
One other note, from the Mosely blog, is that Max Unger said that USC is the best D-line we have faced. This is 100% true, and they are the best front 7 in the nation. This, IMO, not up for debate. I really think we will have a great opportunity to run the ball this weekend. This is the best O-line maybe in Oregon history, and I think they will again prove this on Saturday. ASU will be a better hindrance than Washington, but will be nowhere near the strength USC was.
And as for the penalties, they have been a staple of Erickson teams. You can say they don't upset the flow, but they will when you face teams of similar stature. It is very easy to say this now, but they will become a problem at some point, and look at what they did to USC in a close game. Penalties, esp. of the 15 yard variety can be game changing. Don't discard them so easily.
True...
True, but they played a lot more conservative in the 4th quarter than they normally do. They probably wanted to take away some of the hits he took, which has been the biggest sign of weakness we've seen of Dixon this year.
I disagree
The rest of your points, baal, true. Rudy definitely can pull a run out. I saw it in the Cal game.
The penalty thing may not look like much here, but man, without penalties, the USC game has a different complexion (on their side.) We had 1 false start in the ENTIRE GAME. That's a first.
yeah one penalty
I think he has a point--one penalty is a little ridiculous isn't it? I hope ASU dosen't get jobbed like that.
I understand the Duck fans are giddy over the USC win, and there is a tendency to make more out of it than you should. I was predicting a duck win all week--and I think you are by far the better team and should have won much more easily.
I have watched every USC game--and I'm just not as impressed as I have been in years past. There's a lack of cohesion and smart play on that defensive unit--it's almost certainly fixable--the players are talented. On the other side of the ball, probably mostly due to the injuries--the offense is below average--that has an effect on the defense too. Just a word to the wise ASU is the more "complete" team--that will make a difference.
baal
And, as I said, I'm looking for little things that COULD break in our favor. Does that mean they will? Maybe or maybe not. But these are the facts:
Autzen is one of the biggest home field advantages in the nation. And those two wins by Koetter came in our two worst seasons of the last decade.
Dixon's feet are a huge problem because you can basically play perfect conventional defense and still get screwed.
And penalites have cost Erickson teams in the past. As jtlight said, its magnified a ton when you play teams of equal stature.
There are also some things that could break ASU's way. For example, the UO secondary hasn't been too good lately, and Carpenter is the best passer in the conference.
Nobody is slighting your team. And its very possible that Oregon loses this weekend. If that happens, there would be no shame in losing to a team like ASU. But all three of these things are advantages that have won us games THIS SEASON. You dismiss them at your own peril.
I honestly don't think...
With stewart and dixon being you're most dangerous weapons--I would expect ASU to crowd you. The ASU pass d has been a great surprise--and the secondary is alert and hard hitting. Also Sanchez for a QB who was shitting himself put up pretty good numbers--neglecting the INTs.
Anyways I agree that on paper this is could be a great game and it's a pretty even matchup with the hometeam rightfully favored. we at ASU have fragile egos--Koetters teams had a propensity for laying eggs in big games--traumatic stuff. I sense a similar issue in the duck fanbase.
What I want most is for the country to see a classic PAC 10 battle-with both teams looking good. I'm kind of hoping against hope that's what happens.
yeah
Now, the short and intermediate passing game SHOULD be okay, but Jaison Williams has been dropping every other pass this season. That leaves Aaron Pflugrad--who has great hands but is by no means a burner, and Ed Dickson as the only guys we can depend on. That leaves us in better shape than some teams, but by no means is as explosive as we once were.
One thing is for sure. The passing game has to be more effective then it has been the last two games if we want to run the table.
Conservative D
Weak Points, but not the way Baal thinks
ASU's 36.9 ppg has come against defenses with an average rank of 76.125. Highest ranked defenses played by ASU are Oregon State at #45, Colorado at #49, and Cal at #64.
Clearly, Oregon is scoring much more against tougher opponents.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon is giving up 21.9 ppg against offenses with an average rank of 49.5 in the NCAA. Highlights are Houston at #14, Cal at #31, and USC at #32.
ASU's 15.6 ppg come against opponents with an average offensive ranking of 74.5. ASU's best opponent by offensive rank was Cal at #31, followed by Washington at #54, and OSU at #59.
So yes, ASU has had a stingier defense, but it has been against weaker offenses.
I see the Ducks winning this one comfortably.
nice massaging of the numbers there
I believe we have 3 common opponents. UW, WSU, and 'Furd. ASU owns the more impressive wins over 2 of three of those. We both played at 'Furd and they scored 31 pts on you in the first half. You were tied with UW going into the 4q. ASU settled those games before the 4q began and we played our BU QB in the 4q of both those games--we made both of those teams totally one dimensional.
It should be obvious that who has the superior defense going into this game.
Who is cherry picking now?
ASU strength of schedule to date = #74
You got Cal at a low point.
Those averages were for every team Oregon and ASU have played so far. The three teams that I listed were for the best opponents in each category - I did not just randomly pick three teams. Here is the data:
Team Offense Rank Defense Rank
ASU Schedule
San Jose State 114 83
Colorado 71 49
San Diego State 97 82
Oregon State 59 45
Stanford 96 86
Washington State 74 99
Washington 54 101
California 31 64
Average 74.5 76.125
Oregon Schedule
Houston 14 80
Michigan 53 21
Fresno State 42 58
Stanford 96 86
California 31 64
Washington State 74 99
Washington 54 101
USC 32 15
Average 49.5 65.5
Face it, ASU has played inferior competition.
That is such a blatant misreading of scores...
And the other stats brought up were not cherry picked at all. ASUs defensive stats are very good, but because of the played schedule, those are a little bit suspect. Oregon meanwhile has played a very solid schedule.
There are reasons why poll voters (who can take into account margin of victory) have Oregon over ASU. There are reasons that ASU is picked by almost everyone, from Vegas to Scouts Inc., to lose this game. The offenses that have been faced by ASU are absolutely nothing in comparison to the Oregon offense. Oregon's D has faced many offenses are good as ASUs, and has faced tougher defenses. This game is about matchups and I frankly like Oregon's matchups for this game. And so do others (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/features/take2?gameId=273072483).
Arizona State is a very good team. They have a good chance to win this game, but most of the advantages lie with Oregon.
a circle jerk or circular reasoning I dunno
It is clearly (to me) a lame approach to sift the data by the strength of offensive or defensive units--that's not the way is game is played.
You guys love to rave about the USC defense, both on paper (stats) and the players. Going into it's game against UO--sc had played UW,WSU, UA, and 'Furd--the bottom 4 teams in the conference it's non con sched is even weaker. In fact according to Sagarin the USC strength of schedule with the ducks thrown in is by far the weakest in the PAC. A reasonable person must conclude that the USC defensive stats are inflated.
Meanwhile oregon has the #20 sched and ASU the 47th--ranked by these values UO(73) ASU (70)if you knew how to sift the data statistically you would realize that there is a very small difference between the two values that is barely statistically significant. (<0.2 of a SD)
As a matter of fact if you look at the PAC schedules you have USC with by far the easiest and UW Cal and Stanford as 1-2-3---the rest of the PAC schedules are all very close with little to differentiate them.
This whole scheduling crap is ridiculous
It seems to me you are using stats when they are to your advantage. Fine, whatever. ASU's defense is not as good as USC's. That is abundantly clear without the stats. They do not have the strength or speed to stay with it for the entire game. USC was one of the only defenses in the nation that has the athletes to counteract the Oregon offense. They don't always play to potential, but when they do, they are one of the top 5 in the nation easily. They are one of the few defenses that can match up with Oregon's offense, who cares what you make the stats say.
Plain and simple, I like Oregon's matchups in this game. I seriously doubt that ASU will be able to handle the pressure that Oregon brings offensively. We'll see what happens, and things go wrong in games all the time, but the matchups favor Oregon.
uh oh now your on to me
quote:
"As I said before, stats can be used for whatever you want."
Yeah--like that is my point--you (or somebody else here) has done the same exact thing.
Now I have to reiterate--USC aint all that--USC and ASU have 3 common opponents and the ASU defense outperformed USC against two of those teams by a country mile.
I really hate that you bring up the schedule every
USC Outperformed against Washington State, hands down. USC gave up 247 yards to while ASU gave up 451(!!!). Both teams won the turnover battle by 1.
Against Stanford, USC gave up 235 total yards, even though their offense turned over the ball 5 TIMES (to Stanfords 1)! ASU gave up 235 yards (the same) even though Stanford turned the ball over twice.
Against Washington, USC game up 190 total yards. ASU gave up 288 to Washington. Again, ASU won the TO battle while USC lost it.
I'm sure you're going to say I'm cherry picking stats. Well, I used stats, which is better than making arguments with NOTHING to back it up. ASUs defense has been good, but in my opinion, USCs has been dominant in terms of giving up yards. They are a more talented defense, hands down. If you think ASUs defense is as good as USCs, then...whatever. I don't think you would find anyone outside Tempe that would agree with you. In fact, if you told that to any scout, you would get laughed at.
Seriously, in what ways did the USC defense get outperformed by a country mile? I'm interested to hear, because by looking at stats, I cannot see how they did. USC's D gave up less points in the Washington games (they only gave up 17 to Washington when taking into account the pick 6), so really, the only game that ASU even gave up less points was Stanford.
Before you say something like, "the ASU defense outperformed USC against two of those teams by a country mile," back it up with something, anything, and make an argument. I don't care if you use stats. They can be useful.
But your problem, Baal, is that you're taking everything so personnaly. Guess what, we don't think that ASU is the best team we've seen. I don't think they'll be the best team we play all year. We match up better against them than other teams we've played. I'm more scared of other offenses, and though your D will be the 2nd toughest matchup we've faced, it's a far dropoff from USC. This is just how we see it.
faith based football
Also obvious SC lost to stanford and UW took them to the wire--while ASU played backups against them in the 4q.
You don't seem to have a clue of what stats are all about--the normal distribution. In the universe of the 119 teams if you select out the members of the BCS conferences--you will 7-8 with incredibly weak schedules, 7-8 with very strong ones--and great middle where there might be a measurable difference which dosen't really amount to much.
Truth is stats will not tell the story of this game. It's faith based football.
- you can't beat us at our stadium---fact ASU is 8-6 at Autzen.
- we beat USC who is better than you--very few reasonable people have would come to that conclusion at this stage of the season.
- we are the better team--how and why exactly
- we are favored by 7 pts
- we are ranked higher in the polls
- we killed you last year at your house
I guess this the intellectual brilliance....
Plus, now that you've run out of actual arguments or rational discussion you just start putting words in peoples mouths and then only comment on half of your list? what?
One last time, lets see if you can understand this. Football games come down to MATCHUPS. The undisciplined Erickson team, that has swarmed to the ball all season will have a very tough time against Oregon's offense, which spreads the ball all over. To beat an offense like that, you need to be very disciplined and athletic. ASU is not the former. They are a reactionary defense, which, if they do not play the most diciplined game of their lives, will burn them severly. Oregon has an amazing offensive line that should be able to control the game when Oregon has the ball. Throw Dixon's abilities on 3rd down, which ASU is not prepared for, and Oregon has all the advantages when they have the ball. Even if you drop safeties back (which teams have done that past few weeks), we'll take what we give you. The thing about Oregon's offense, and Kelley's plan, is that we will take what you give us. It is impossible to cover the entire field, and Oregon has been excellent at exploiting weaknesses.
And here, this is where it might have confused you. We brought up the USC DEFENSE, because it provided the toughest MATCHUPS for our offense. Because of our production against it last weekend, we feel that we can move that ball on just about any team in the country. This wasn't based on stats, but on MATCHUPS.
On ASU's offense, if Carpenter can throw well and has time, Oregon could get beat. If pressure gets on Carpenter, he'll be in trouble. That's one reason he's been rolling out so much, which is not really all that great because it closes off about 2/3 of the field from there being plays. This would draw the Oregon defense to that side, negating a lot of big plays. The UO secondary will give up a lot of underneath stuff, and will probably do a decent job against the run, but ASU will have a tough time in the red zone. ASU will get yards and points, but probably not enough to keep pace with Oregon.
Furthermore, Oregon has other advantages, from Autzen, which we won't just win cause it's there, but will give Oregon an ADVANTAGE IN THE GAME (see how that works?), as will ASU's normal penalties., which will only grow in a loud stadium.
Again, ASU is a good team, but Oregon has the advantages in the game, and should come out on top.
good now we're on to something
I also don't get this "undisciplined ASU defense" thing. IMO it's way-way off base. We don't have the raw talent of a USC or even the OSU front 7--and the ASU guys know their assignments--that's the way they have rolled all year. Unlike past years when the devils have been undisciplined and more than a little boneheaded--this defense is rarely out of position. We have a speedy group of LBs and DB support and that is our best hope to contain a spread field. I expect to see a lot of Stewart in the early going--Bellottis best hope is that he can win the game in that simple fashion. If the ducks can complete some 15+ yard passes in the early going it will be a very bad sign for ASU. As the game wears on I expect the ducks 'o' will find it more and more difficult to slog out the game in the trenches--and the issue will be rest on the arm of Dixon.
Defending the devil 'o' is comparable to defending the oregon counterpart. If carpenter gets a rhythm--he will carve you up. That's why opponents have blitzed us 60% of the time. Blitzing a lot is the only strategy but it has been a losing strategy. Our backs are very good in space once they hit the second and third levels they are explosive--lots of long TD runs this year.
I think the game goes to the wire--and whichever team can impose its will on the other at the end wins.
Simple really.
Ah, we understood each other in the end...
As far as blitzing being a way to disaster, I will say that I think this is probably the best secondary that ASU has faced. That won't always show up in the stats, but that is for a number of reasons. Mainly cause they play one-on-one a lot. Also, our secondary has been some of the best tacklers I've seen. Short passes rarely go for big gains, or even gains at all. Also, I'm not as concerned with being run off the field, because of how we've played against others. Against Michigan and Cal, we've faced some of the toughest lines/RBs in the nation. We didn't dominate the line, but did enough to stall drives. This is usually done because of the field position (through a stellar offense and great punting game). It's only a matter of time before the game is put on Carpenter. If Carpenter makes mistakes, ASU won't stand a chance.
Cal succeed against Oregon because of Oregon mistakes, but also because of DeSean Jackson. ASU is a very solid team, but I don't see them having the type of receiver that can dominate the way that Jackson did. Jackson played great, and could beat Oregon DBs in the open field. On top of this, Longshore made no mistakes. He missed some passes when under pressure, but made no mistakes. I don't feel that ASU has the personnel to exploit the Oregon D like Cal did.
If ASU can control the ball and run more plays (which I say instead of TOP because of how Oregon's offense is run), all bets are off. If Oregon gets a few big stops like they did against Michigan or USC, ASU will not be able to hang with the Oregon offense.
The best preview I've seen of this game, ended with the following:
"Saturday's Pac-10 showdown in Eugene will be a classic battle for tempo. The Sun Devils want to slow the pace down with an overwhelming power-rushing attack on offense, while the Ducks are hoping a track meet breaks out on the turf of Autzen Stadium. Arizona State's physical nature on both sides of the ball might catch Oregon by surprise, but it won't compare to the shock ASU's defense will experience when it first witnesses the speed of Dixon, Stewart and Co. It may be a lower-scoring affair than the Ducks are accustomed to, but eventually their defense will force Carpenter into some costly turnovers that the Sun Devils simply won't recover from. When it's all said and done, Oregon will reclaim the top spot in the Pac-10 and continue its upward climb -- at least one more position -- in the BCS Standings."
it really is amazing to me
Tell me you wouldn't take a one point win with a "rouge" (cfl reference) right now.
Cmon I dares ya!!
My stupid numbers
by astroman on Oct 31, 2007 2:05 AM PDT reply actions
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