Question of the Day: Worried about Fresno State?

by Addicted to Quack on Sep 11, 2007 11:42 PM PDT in Football Comment 10 comments

From now on, I think I'll post a discussion question for the day every day here at ATQ. So here's one for today:

Given Oregon's response last time they beat Michigan, and the fact that games between UO and FSU are always close, does the Fresno State game worry you on Saturday? Why or why not?

Discuss away. I'll respond as time allows. Feel free to respond to each other as well.

GO DUCKS!!!

--Dave

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Nope

I mean, could we lose this game? Sure, we could pull a WSU (from 2003 or last year) and turn the ball over a bunch and lose a game we should win easily, but I just don't see it happening.

Also, besides the fresno state blog being the ugliest blog I've ever seen, I think they are overrating their team greatly. Oregon has a huge advantage when they have the ball. There is no question. If we play smart, and don't turn the ball over, we will move the ball all game long. I would be quite surprised if we don't at least get 500 yards and/or 38 points.

Defense is a different story, but I don't think they'll be able to move the ball on the ground without their top 2 running backs. Then, after we've gotten them in a small hole (because they won't be able to move the ball as consistently as us) they will be forced to throw, and our secondary will shut them down.

Barring a massive collapse like we saw last season, we should dominate this game. Our guys are one year more mature, and I feel they have learned from last year. Also, I think Kelley has done and will continue to do a great job with the O. Really, I don't want to overestimate our team, but honestly, FSU just doesn't match up with us. They like to think they can hang with the big boys, because they do it once or twice a year, but they really don't.

Can we lose this game? Sure. But I don't think we will, and I'm confident that we will come out fired up and not let up all day long.

by jtlight on Sep 12, 2007 6:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with some of this

The FSU blog is overrating their players greatly. Their running backs as equal to Stewart and Johnson, as they would claim, is asinine.

On paper, we should totally dominate this game. And its possible that I put too much stock in past perforamance as an indicator. But I know that all the games between these two have been close.

That said, the defense is awfully green, and Chip Kelly is proving to be a much better OC than Puntwig and Crowton.

I just think that they'll keep it closer than we think. We won't lose the game, but it might be a ten point game instead of the 21 point win everyone thinks it will be.

by Addicted to Quack on Sep 12, 2007 6:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, for different reasons

I hate playing Fresno State. It is basically a lose-lose situation for us. We risk our players getting hurt (and they always do), the win gives us very little, and they always play cheap to keep it close. We gain very little off the win yet we always have so much to loose. I agree with Dave on a few things. FSU blog has been enormously hyping up their players, but that's ok. So far I've been very impressed with Chip Kelly and I knew I would be. Crowton was good but continuously made things too complicated and overthought even himself at times. I hope we kill FSU this weekend. I'm glad this series will be over after this game.

by absolutduck on Sep 12, 2007 7:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I Disagree

FSU has a solid reputation for rising to the level of the team they're playing. They are as mentally tough as any team in NCAA. Add to that, they took a top 20 team to the brink of disaster. I think they are just a half notch below us and could easily win the game.

Now, all that said, we win by 17.

by BLAZER PROPHET on Sep 12, 2007 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Fresno always plays us tough. They play with a chip on their shoulders and they want nothing more than to knock at Pac-10 team on their arses.

They are well coached and play hard and for some reason, the games are always close. I don't think they can stop our "O" but their offense is pretty good as well and I expect a lot of smashmouth football from them.

Oregon should win but I expect it to be a good fight.

by deuelio on Sep 12, 2007 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Just threw down my parlays for the week, and I wouldn't touch the Ducks at -17 even though I'm fully confident they will win. The score will be closer than the game, and though they will come out with a W, they won't cover 17.

by jhammond10 on Sep 12, 2007 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ducks win...

but I disagree that this is a lose-lose situation for the Ducks. Fresno State has a more than deserved national reputation, even for some folks back east. Nonetheless, this reputation, bolstered by last week's near-win at TAM (in which FSU should have prevailed in the first OT: stop the dumb fumbling at the goal line, guys), is something that will make the Ducks look good (at this time) if the Ducks prevail, which they should.

That being said, two things do worry me: injuries and the usual very close games these teams play against each other. As has been said by others, Fresno has a reputation for hard-nosed, some might say dirty, play and Oregon could very well have some injuries during the day (luckily we start league play against some apparently lesser league foes).

If history is any indication, no matter what pundits and on-paper predictions forecast, this series has had more than its share of close games, games often decided in the last 5 minutes. Unless Fresno does come in with a hang-over from last week's games (and they also do have a history for not recovering well from close, hard-fought matches in which they think they should have prevailed), the Ducks are in for a tough, tough battle Saturday: Ducks, 45 Fresno 35.

I personally like these matches with Fresno. It keeps the Ducks tough and prepared for close battles. I think many fans don't like Fresno because of this, but for a game vs. mid-majors, I prefer Fresno then playing someone like Utah or San Jose State, etc.

by RentonAugust on Sep 12, 2007 3:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately,

If FSU follows their recent trends, they will play us hard, and though many people around the country now know that they play their out-of-conference games hard, they can't even win their conference. I was at the game last year, and fans told me it was their season. By the end of the season, they won't be taken seriously. 2 years ago, the FSU win looked really good when their only losses were to us and USC. Then, they tanked. This is why I don't have a lot of respect for Pat Hill or FSU, because they think they can run with the big boys (which they do on occasion), but they don't bring it with any consistency, and they will never be taken seriously because of that.

by jtlight on Sep 13, 2007 7:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My bad...

I thought the second league game was against the Cougs (finally not at Martin Stadium). Cal is anything but a lesser league opponent. WSU is usually a good game, but they obviously don't compare to Cal.

by RentonAugust on Sep 12, 2007 3:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Very scared...

As my subject line indicates, I'm scared for the Ducks this week. I had the honor of watching the game last week with a Michigan Alum/Die-hard and I kept having to tell her that we aren't as good as we showed last week. Dennis Dixon is NOT as good as he played last week. Our D is NOT as good as they showed last week...they're just not. The sledgehammer incident, dumping the Gatorade on Belotti...that was all fine, but I hope they don't take the field in Autzen and assume that the Bulldogs will roll over and play dead like Michigan did last week.

The one promising stat is how pathetic Fresno State was last year. Wins against Nevada, New Mexico State, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech aren't much to write home about.

I predict a close one, but going in the Ducks favor.

Dan Fouts is a douche!

by PacBellBoozer on Sep 12, 2007 5:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs