bla bla bla ducks have never lost in the history of the universe and will never lose to anybody ever bla bla bla dixon is the bestest qb in the world bla bla bla 50000-0 ducks

bla bla bla..........

3 letters: B    Y    U

It would seem that an institution with such a great history of intellectualism would be able to procure a few people with an ounce of common sense and rationality. All Dave is doing is providing solid stats and reasonable possibilities for intangible influences on the game (injuries, home field advantage, mismatches, etc). All of this blather is beginning to embarass me for being a UC grad (Davis). I think the true embarassment is going to come Saturday when the Ducks expose how Cal is simply overrated.

G

Cal is far better than Oregon.  

So to Cal congrats on the win against Oregon, congrats on another win against USC, and congrats on making it to the rose bowl again!(how many years in a row is that now.)

but calling longshore mediocre is a little unrealistic.

..but still this is the second time today I have encountered a superlative when referring to the duck secondary.

While I do consider it good--it's not any better than that.  In it's recent history in some games it has been MIA.

Look-- if mighty Houston can drop 500yards on you, expecting Cal to be a walkover is delusional.

I was looking forward to this weekend's game because it was a chance for some friendly banter between two rivals, but the way you're construing some of my remarks and the remarks of others makes me think you're just hypocritical. You warn Cal fans repeatedly to stop coming over and trolling, but whenever people post commentary completely absent of character attacks and incorrect information (myself and Kevin), you pass it off as garbage. Ignorant. Arrogant.

Maybe you should look in the mirror. There are many moments of ignorance in this post, and the most obvious one to me is how you astutely refer to Bears safety Thomas DeCoud as Mike DeCoud. "While our offensive line doesn't do great against the run, they have a great pass rush." That's another gem. If Cal's offensive line had a pass rush, I'd sure hate to be Nate Longshore.

I am not going to use this comment to disparage every single one of your points. I have said all along that this will be a close game between two very evenly matched teams and whichever team limits mistakes and dictates tempo will probably win. I just have a few qualms. You probably won't even want to read them since they're so ignorant and arrogant, but I'll mention them anyway to see if they resonate with any level-headed people:

-Is Oregon's secondary "really good," as you say? The Ducks are allowing over 11 yards per reception and over 245 yards per game through the air. I have seen Patrick Chung play and I know he is a solid veteran, but I don't believe the secondary has seen receivers as talented as Cal's this year. I know the Ducks DBs always have good experience when they go up against their WRs in practice, but just saying... it might be premature to call them "really good."

-Just because James Montgomery and Travis Best are young doesn't mean the Bears are "limited" at running back. If it weren't for USC, the Bears and Ducks would have the two most talented stables of running backs in the Pac-10. Forsett and Stewart are both all-league backs, and I'd take my chances with Best and Montgomery stacked up to Jeremiah Johnson and Andre Crenshaw. I think the backs are pretty much a wash (even if Marshawn Lynch were still with the Bears, I'd feel the same way. Tedford has simply had a knack for putting running backs in positions to succeed since he's been there).

-"That means Cal is going to have to pass, and when they do, I'd try and make Longshore's life a living hell." This sentence was taken in improper context--you're saying that just because Justin Forsett won't run the ball 45 times like Mike Hart, that Longshore is going to be forced to air it out. Huh? If the Bears are effetive running the ball, it's irrelevant how many times Forsett or any other back actually runs. Even the best ball control offenses don't always net 30 carries for the starting running back. And if the Bears run well, the Ducks likely won't be able to blitz as persistently when Longshore does decide to drop back and throw.

-I think every time I've seen you mention Cal's defense, you mention they lost three all-league defenders. Tell us something we don't know. This was extremely more relevant at the start of the year, when there was still a lot of uncertainty on the unit, but by now we all know who the players are and what the team can do. And despite the defense's shortcomings, the team is 4-0.

-While it's tempting to think Oregon's pace will tire out the Bears defense, just know Cal has already faced two opponents this season that employed a no-huddle (Tennessee and Louisiana Tech. Tennessee doesn't do this every game, but it did at Memorial) and faced another spread passing team (Arizona). Obviously Oregon's offense is more potent than any of those foes, but my point is that the Bears won't be caught off guard if the Ducks try to use a fast pace on offense.

-I think the Zack Follett injury hurts, but definitely not as much when the Bears are able to plug in a talented senior like Justin Moye, a one-time starter.

-As far as the discussion on homefield advantage, well, Autzen is obviously one of the better environments in college football, but until you've been to every other vaunted venue, you can't say it's the most dangerous on the West Coast. I'm saying it's not. I think the Coliseum is more hostile, and I definitely know Tennessee's Neyland Stadium is scarier than either. I am not saying it's tops in the nation, but it's the craziest I've experienced. Basically, don't take it so personally when people try to initiate discussion about home-field advantage. Records don't lie--you guys did get shelled against Arizona at home last year.

-On a personal note, your characterization of my Stewart/Dixon comment shows more ignorange on your part, I think. Tedford knows the Bears played at the top of their game against the Ducks last year, and I'd be stunned if Dixon and Stewart perform the way they did in 2006, because everyone knows they're better than that. Nobody is as aware of this as Jeff Tedford. What I meant by that statement is that he will likely devise a game plan to prevent them from big plays and letting Dixon control the game. Those are tough tasks, but Cal did a good job of it last year--it's been done before, so it's anything but ignorant to think the Bears won't be ready for it a second time around.

I am not going to make outlandish predictions like Dixon throwing for three picks or Forsett eclipsing 200 yards. The unbiased observer in me says it will be a close game, and the homer thinks Cal will win a close game. A blowout would be nice, but I'm a realistic homer.

If you'd like more garbage, feel free to check out my preview of the game later today.

http://www.thebandisoutonthefield.com

Wow I'm surprised I my quote made it to this blog. In regards to holding your team under 150yards I believe we will contain Oregon's run game but not because we have held other teams to that number -- although I can see how I worded my post, one could see it being that way.

First, our LB core, while we do miss Desmond Bishop, has not seen a drop off even with Zach Follett injured. Anthony Felder, a frosh all-american, was injured all last year and is healthy this year. There were concerns if he would still be able to contribute this year at a high level after taking a year off and he has responded by being our BEST complete LB so far this year even more so then Zach. He has shown the playmaking skills of Zach Follett (sacks, forcing fumbles ect.) but is also leading our team in tackles. Worrell Williams was another question mark. Would he improve to fill the void DB left. While he hasn't played as well as DB (huge role to fill) he def isn't a large drop off to be a concern. He is our second leading tackler on the team and has shown ability to make big plays. Our third LB will be rotated with three LB's that have seen meaningful minutes all season. Even without Zach, it will not be a drop off from last year's core that did very well against your offense and are deep enough where they will tire no more then your own LB's.

The other stat that led me to believe that we will be able to contain your run game was the large amount of TFL your line has allowed. TFL (read my preview thread on bearinsider for more info and discussion) are important and Oregon running a spread does not excuse for them any more then any other formation. The bottom line is that your line/bad snaps/shotgun formation/playcalling is causing A LOT more TFL this year then last (2x). Oregon's 29 TFL ranks 108/119 and is a problem. While your offense has been explosive for big plays on the ground, they have also given up a lot of plays for no gain or less. I have reason to believe that our LB will be able capitalize and make plays to limit them thus holding your run offense to 150yards.

That being said, 150yards does not guarantee victory, and we do still have to stop Dixon who has been throwing very well. Most of Oregon's big plays have come from the air as indicated by the run:pass playcall ratio to run:pass yardage gain ratio.

Other weakness I see with Oregon is their LB play which has declined from last year.  They will struggle to stop our run. Without stopping our run it will keep your CB offbalance for the playaction pass. Your CB are good enough to where they will recover but Cal should be able to strike with some success.

Cal's CB do give up a lot of yards but they have done a great job preventing the big play that Oregon depends on. I wouldn't expect any of Cal's CB not to be able to "hang" with your receivers. But they will have some success. I think Stewart has been awfully quite as a receiver this year and could potentially hurt us. We tend to give up the small dump pass up the middle and with some room. Cal has to tackle well otherwise he might have enough room to break off a big play.

Other things that are in favor of Oregon. Home field advantage is huge. And if Dennis Dixon has turned the corner and can respond if the run game isn't giving him the luxury in the pass game that was afforded to him before, then things will look good for Oregon. Also Cal's D-line is a ??. W/o Rulon Davis we do have 3 DL who have had meaningful game experience but not the same physical presence as Davis. All have made big plays here and there but the concern is if a committee of them will be equivalent. Also there is potential of a DL tiring with only three backups instead of 4.

Cal's team is better then last year. We have added more playmakers to our team on both sides of the ball. For all the confidence that Oregon fans have shown, I would hope they would be able to say the same.