Let's have one more go round on this carousel. After this, let's get to Arizona, because the more I think about this, the more pessimistic I'll become.
The simple fact is that we do not (in all likelihood) control our own destiny. Sure, there are a few places (Fox Sports, AP) that are saying that LSU and Oregon are in control (us if we win big), but in all honesty, we are not.
The degree to which we are in danger of being overtaken has no consensus. For those of you that enjoy/respect Sunday Morning QB (and I do, he was one of the few writers, along with Phil Steele, to pick Oregon to finish in the top 2 of the Pac-10), his latest BCS piece could scare the living daylights out of you. And ESPN's resident BCS guru isn't helping our psyche either.
Luckily we have the Register Guard guys telling us good things. Moseley doesn't give any details, but quotes "people he's talked to." Also, Schroeder has a really great blog post on the pretty good position Oregon is in. He is very certain that Kansas is a sham (and has been pushing this on his radio show for some time), and does not think that a one-loss Big 12 champ will pass Oregon. Also, BCS Guru says that Oklahoma or Missouri will not pass Oregon.
My thoughts? I think that Oregon will only get passed if Kansas wins out. It could get close, and we are going to be hearing about it non-stop for the next 4-5 weeks, but we are in a good position. Kansas will lose. They have two tough games, and their best win thus far is against a 5-5 Oklahoma State team. Furthermore, we want them to lose to Missouri (or earlier), thus diminishing the importance of the Big 12 championship game, which won't be as big with no undefeated teams that will be on the outside of the BCS top 2.
But because Kansas will lose, Oklahoma is the only true threat to Oregon. And really, they are very far behind Oregon in the BCS. In the latest standings, Oregon is more than two full places ahead of Oklahoma. It is closer in the human polls, but Oregon holds a very large lead in the computer polls (3rd to 7th over Oklahoma). I do not think that Oklahoma could pass Oregon in any of the computers polls (maybe Billingsly because of how they take into account the latest win, but the top and bottom are thrown out). Because of this significant disadvantage, OU would have to not only pass Oregon in all polls, but pass by a fairly decent margin. Even if it comes down to Pac 10 versus Big 12, I don't think the Big 12 is better than the Pac 10, and the nation doesn't either. Even now, if all the Big 12 voters voted Kansas or Oklahoma, it would not be enough to pass Oregon. Plus, I believe that a lot of the ballots look like Kansas, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Missouri. When Kansas loses, they will slide, and those top votes will go to LSU or Oregon.
So, to sum this up, could we get passed? Sure. But remember, last week we were talking about how we could possibly take over LSU. Now, Oklahoma and Kansas are saying those things. We don't completely control our own destiny, but a Kansas loss will pretty much give that to us. We are in a much better position than any other one-loss except LSU. Be prepared for all the talk of possibilities of Oregon getting passed, but it's not the most likely scenario.
With that, add any comments, and let's focus on Arizona. Go Ducks!
Update [2007-11-12 11:44:8 by Dave]: We didn't give jtlight his proper introduction, but we're glad to have him join us as our latest front page poster. Welcome!