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Why Boise State Will Win

This is a guest post from Kevan at One Bronco Nation Under God.  A similar post authored by me will be appearing on his site later today.  --Dave

Don't get me wrong. I am scared about this game. 

I am scared in ways I have not been scared since Gremlins 2, a bad corn maze experience, and the made-for-TV movie "Miracle Landing." The Oregon running game has me more nervous than a Joey Harrington out route. I am less prepared for the Autzen Stadium atmosphere than Akili Smith was for NFL playbooks. And I am worried that my Broncos will crumble like Dennis Dixon's ACL. 

If only there was some sign of hope that could help me put to rest my fears. Oh, what's that? Oregon is starting a third string quarterback who doesn't know the offense? Sigh. That's better. 

The Ducks' M*A*S*H unit at the quarterback position is far from the only reason for me to be hopeful. While every one else is burying the Broncos before the game even starts, I am prepared to declare premature victory and shout from the top of a mountain how confident I am that Coach Pete, Ian Johnson, and the greatest team in the Northwest will win going away on Saturday. I'll probably need a small mountain, though, since I'm afraid of heights and I don't like attention. 

Don't believe me? Oklahoma fans didn’t either, and we all know what happened there (let’s not talk about East Carolina fans). There are a number of sound reasons why the Broncos should come away with a win on Saturday, and there are a number of unsound ones which I’m sure I will feature on my site throughout the end of the week.  

But for now, I’m going to focus on the reasons that make sense. After all, those are the ones most likely to matter on Saturday. The Broncos have a number of factors going their way, and if they can put all their positives together, a Boise State win will be in the bag. 

Don't kill the messenger. Seriously, I have plans on Sunday night. 

Reason #1: Uh, did you see the Purdue game? 

I did, and it warmed my heart.  

Oregon looked downright pedestrian in that game, and we're not talking Walkman-and-jogging-shorts pedestrian. We're talking motorized-scooter or senior-citizen pedestrian. The Ducks had no right to be in that game, and it is a miracle that Purdue didn't put them away when they had the chance.  

If Oregon plays the way they did against Purdue, Boise State's chances for a win jump considerably. The team I saw on TV was sloppy, inefficient, and mistake-prone, and considering the Broncos play in the WAC, they know how to deal with those kinds of teams. 

Reason #2: Pass defense the St. Louis Rams would envy 

Boise State's secondary is one of the best in the country, and they should be able to completely shut down the Oregon passing attack on Saturday.  

Everywhere you look in the Broncos' defensive backfield you will find trouble. Cornerbacks Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson are two of the best in the WAC, and safety Jeron Johnson is a force to be reckoned with. BSU can trot out scores of DBs into all sorts of different positions, so don't expect them to get tired if a track meet breaks out on the Autzen turf.  

I picture the Broncos singling up on the outside receivers, putting eight in the box to stop the run, and turning Jeremiah Masoli into a modern-day version of Rob Johnson. But that's just me. 

Reason #3: Kellen Moore, mythical god 

Quick facts about Boise State freshman QB Kellen Moore:

1. He does not get rattled.

2. He knows what you're doing before you do it.

3. He is the greatest left-handed person ever to live.

Playing the Ducks will be the first true test for Moore, and Bronco fans have no doubt that he will do great. He has been as good as advertised through Boise State's first two games, and he has showed poise and talent that belies his age. Oh, and we are best friends. In my imaginary world. 

Reason #4: Destiny 

That's right. Destiny. The Broncos are due for a road win over a Pac-10 team. It has to happen sometime, and I would be doing my Bronco Nation membership a disservice if I didn't think it would happen here. 

Those four reasons do a great deal to put my heart at rest heading into Saturday’s game. Of course, I still have to worry about the Autzen atmosphere, Oregon’s speed, the Broncos’ unproven young team, and years of built-up BCS away game inadequacies. 

But if I overcame my fear of Gremlins, this Oregon thing should be a piece of cake.