FOUR FACTORS PREVIEW:
eFG%: This is basically a wash at 51.4 for Oregon and 51.7 for Arizona. The difference is that the Wildcats are an elite defense, and opponents only have an eFG% of 44% (and 26.5% from three). Oregon is very average defensively at 48%. (ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA)
Turnover %: Oregon has improved by leaps and bounds in this category, and with a turnover percentage of 20.2% of possessions is threatening to break into the top-100 in that stat with a few more good performances. What an amazing turnaround. Arizona's stats are very similar at 19.8. Both teams are very poor at forcing turnovers, so we should see a clean game. (TOSS-UP)
Offensive Rebounding %: Neither team does a whole lot of offensive rebounding, both ranking in the low 200s. The amazing thing is that Oregon is also threatening to break into the top-100 as far as not giving up offensive rebounds (Arizona is comfortably there). Like the turnover %, we see major improvement in a problem area. Altman's teams definitely get better as the season goes on. (TOSS UP)
FTA/FGA: Oregon shoots 44 free throws for every 100 field goal attempts, ranking 43rd in the nation and something that has been their biggest advantage all season. Increasingly, they don't foul at all, and the fact that they only give up 27 free throws per 100 field goal attempts makes them 19th in the country in that statistic. Arizona is also above average at getting to the line, ranking 76th with 40 FTs per FGA, but they'll also foul a bit defensively you defensively, giving up 34 FTs 100 FTA. The metrics say Oregon should have the free throw advantage. (ADVANTAGE: OREGON)
KEYS TO THE GAME:
- Use the posts -- Arizona plays tough defense, and makes it especially tough to get open looks at three. Oregon's posts have the size advantage, and if one can have a big game, it could get UA's bigs in foul trouble, but also start to open up some outside shots for Oregon's guards.
- Win the free throw battle -- The metrics say that the Ducks should do this. Oregon needs to get some easy ones to make up for Arizona's defense.
- Set the tempo -- Run these guys. Getting the pace up should again help neutralize Arizona's defensive advantage.