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Duck the Odds, Week 13 Review: It's Hard to Hold a Candle in the Cold November Rain

*Single tear.*

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Standings:

Last Week: Pac-12 Picks: 2-4; Other Picks: 3-1; Overall: 5-5; Mustache Margin: +4.

Overall: Pac-12 Picks: 5-7; Other Picks: 7-3; Overall: 12-10; Mustache Margin: +11.

This Week:

Well, definitely better at picking the non-Pac-12 games thus far (7-3 vs. 5-7). Still, this past week wasn't a total loss at 5-5, and we still have the all-important positive Mustache Margin. Super shocked like the rest of you about Oregon's implosion at Arizona, but the rest of the Pac-12 misses were at least contemplated before the weekend. Let's look back:

The Ducks:

The Pick: Oregon (-20.5) @ Arizona ( 2-Stache Pick)

The Result: Arizona 42, Oregon 16 (46.5-Point Loss)

My prediction was 48-20 (much like Tako's hypothetical). Little did I know I'd be almost exactly right...but the opposite way. Vegas probably made a bundle on this game, given how much public support Oregon has been getting this year. What a freaking bummer.

The Pac:

The Pick: Utah @ Washington State (-1.5) (5-Stache Pick)

The Result: Washington State 49, Utah 37 (10.5-Point Win)

Wazzu controlled early, and never took its foot off the gas. The closest Utah would get was within 6, and did it twice, but WSU responded with a score each time to stay comfortably ahead. AND WE WON FIVE MUSTACHES.

WSU is bowl-eligible, and everyone in Pullman is all aboard the Leach train (and rightfully so).

The Pick: Washington (+3.5) @ Oregon State (3-Stache Pick)

The Result: Washington 69, Oregon State 27 (45.5-Point Win)

In picking this game, I wrote something like: "Washington has a great chance to keep this close, or even win the game outright." But holy crap, Washington killed these guys: 692 total yards, including 530 (530!) rushing yards. Not only that, it was 48-0 Washington when the 4th quarter started. Posting a 42-point win as an underdog is unreal. This result, combined with Washington State's nice win above, combined with Seven-Win-Sark still being in play, is gonna make for a REAL interesting Apple Cup next week.

The Pick: USC (-22.5) @ Colorado (3-Stache Pick)

The Result: USC 47, Colorado 29 (4.5-Point Loss)

USC led 23-0 at half, and put up 49 total points, but gave up 22 4th-quarter points to let Colorado have the backdoor cover, winning "only" by 18. USC played well despite pretty cold and wet conditions at elevation, but just didn't quite get the cover. The 22-point 4th quarter points by Colorado wasn't that surprising to me, actually, given the lack of USC's defensive depth, and the big game back in LA next week.

The Pick: Arizona State @ UCLA (+2.5) (2-Stache Pick)

The Result: Arizona State 38, UCLA 33 (2.5-Point Loss)

UCLA was down 35-13 at half, but battled back to cut the lead down 38-33 in the 4th quarter. UCLA had two chances to cover the spread and/or win late in the game: they drove down the field but missed a field goal with just over 4:30 to play, then got the ball back with 3:21 to play on their own 35 with a chance to win the game.

I was checking in on gamecast (was too morose after Ducks' shellacking to keep watching games), and had some hope for UCLA to clutch it out and gut out the win. Buuuuuut then I saw the following:

1st and 10 at ASU 45 UCLA penalty 10 yard Holding accepted.
1st and 20 at UCLA 45 UCLA penalty 10 yard Holding accepted.
1st and 30 at UCLA 35 Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte.
2nd and 30 at UCLA 35 Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan Payton.
3rd and 30 at UCLA 35 Brett Hundley sacked by Davon Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 30.
4th and 35 at UCLA 30 Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 16 yards to the UCLA 46.

Just like your mother always said: nothing good happens after 2 a.m., or on 4th and 35. Too bad for UCLA to lose after going on a 20-3 2nd-half run.

The Pick: California (+31.5) @ Stanford (2-Stache Pick)

The Result: Stanford 63, California 13 (18.5-Point Loss)


Saw an interesting stat on Golden Blogs' Twitter account:

Number of points scored by Cal in 2012: 276, 10th in conference.

Number of points scored by Cal in 2013 with vaunted "Bear Raid" attack: 276, 12th in conference.

What's that old phrase about staying the same while everyone else is getting better?

Potential Bowl Opponents:

The Pick: Michigan State (-7.5) @ Northwestern (4-Stache Pick)

The Result: Michigan State 30, Northwestern 6 (16.5-Point Win)

Man alive, can Sparty play D! After a freaky, juggling long TD catch-and-run by Michigan State, they led only 14-6 at half. But the defense buried the 'Cats in the second half to cruise to an easy win.

The Pick: Wisconsin (-16.5) @ Minnesota (2-Stache Pick)

The Result: Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 7 (3.5-Point Loss)

GEEZ. If there was partial credit in this line of work, I think I'd get it for this pick. Minnesota scored exactly zero offensive points, getting their lone TD from a pick six. Wisconsin's D dominated this game on the road, but Bucky just couldn't score points on the tundra.

The Pick: Baylor @ Oklahoma State (+9.5) (2-Stache Pick)

The Result: Oklahoma State 49, Baylor 17 (41.5-Point Win)

This game was never close. Okie State completely dominated defensively, and led this thing from wire-to-wire. If not for a weird road loss to West Virginia, we'd be talking about the Cowboys as a national championship contender.

The Pick: Indiana (+34.5) @ Ohio State (1-Stache Pick)

The Result: Ohio State 42, Indiana 14 (6.5-Point Win)

[Put in comment here about not caring about this game.]

Week 14's Opening Lines:

Here are the opening lines of games we'll look at tomorrow. As always, these lines may move around as time goes on:

-The Pac:

--> Oregon State @ Oregon (-21)

--> Washington State @ Washington (-14.5)

--> Colorado @ Utah (-14)

--> Notre Dame @ Stanford (-14)

--> UCLA @ USC (-3.5)

--> Arizona @ Arizona State (-14)


--> Ohio State (-14) @ Michigan

--> Minnesota @ Michigan State (-14.5)

--> Texas Tech @ Texas (-5.5)

--> Baylor (-14) @ TCU

--> Texas A&M @ Missouri (-3)

--> Alabama (-9.5) @ Auburn


Check in tomorrow morning to see this week's picks.