clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Advanced Stats Saturday: Week 12 2014

New, 8 comments

More SEC bias, some meh PAC-12 and some surprisingly decent ACC action headline this week's advanced stats previews.

No, you can't kiss your way to the playoffs.
No, you can't kiss your way to the playoffs.
Kevin C. Cox

FEI is the Fremeau Efficiency Index, created by Brian Fremeau. Brian Fremeau is an author at Football Outsiders,ESPN and BCFToys. FEI is an advanced statistical measure for college football that tracks drive efficiency instead of per-play success.


S+P is created by Bill Connelly. Bill Connelly is an author at SBNation, RockMNationFootball Study Hall and Football Outsiders. S+P is an advanced statistical measure which combines success rate, explosiveness per play and opponent adjustments.

Last week I was thinking that the bye week was useless having Colorado right after - but boy am i happy about that now. The rest of the PAC-12 is a bit sleepy, having 4 teams on bye. The national games are pretty feisty though.

PAC-12 Action:

California at USC


OVERALL When California has the ball When USC has the ball
Category California

USC

Cal Off USC Def Cal Def USC Off
F/+ Rk 49 (4.2%) 24 (18.7%) 38 (6.1%) 31 (8.5%) 69 (-1.6%) 23 (9.4%)
S&P+ 65 (200.5) 27 (223.0) 38 (107.0) 38 (109.5) 91 (93.5) 25 (113.6)
Play Efficiency

37 (115.7) 46 (107.7) 105 (89.4) 23 (120.2)
Rushing S&P+

55 (106.3) 69 (99.2) 70 (98.7) 59 (105.5)
Passing S&P+

27 (120.2) 36 (112.8) 111 (84.2) 16 (132.0)
Std. Downs S&P+

47 (106.8) 54 (104.4) 88 (94.6) 65 (102.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

11 (142.7) 38 (118.2) 119 (76.0) 4 (165.0)
Drive Efficiency

74 (98.4) 23 (121.0) 49 (106.3) 19 (121.1)

OVERALL When California has the ball When USC has the ball
Category California

USC

Cal Off USC Def Cal Def USC Off
F/+ Rk 49 (4.2%) 24 (18.7%) 38 (6.1%) 31 (8.5%) 69 (-1.6%) 23 (9.4%)
FEI Rk 43 (.072) 14 (.224) 32 (.256) 24 (-.369) 61 (-.029) 26 (.345)
Field Position 77 (.492) 53 (.500)



Raw Efficiency 74 (-.027) 19 (.147) 34 (.261) 46 (-.169) 109 (.362) 19 (.429)
First Down rate

16 (.745) 98 (.720) 116 (.759) 60 (.667)
Available Yards rate

32 (.515) 65 (.442) 119 (.571) 33 (.507)
Explosive Drives

19 (.191) 15 (.075) 104 (.188) 32 (.176)
Methodical Drives

51 (.145) 85 (.159) 95 (.170) 15 (.196)
Value Drives

36 (.432) 46 (.340) 116 (.515) 41 (.418)
Special Team rank 77 (-.190) 44 (.622)



Field Goal efficiency 71 (-.032) 32 (.310)



Punt Return efficiency 40 (-.005) 12 (.120)



Kickoff return efficiency 21 (-.034) 23 (-.037)



punt efficiency 95 (.001) 104 (.062)



kickoff efficiency 112 (-.010) 111 (-.011)



This is a much closer game than I would have thought from S+P. Cal's offense and USC's defense are fairly close together, with Cal having small advantages here and there. USC is super efficient and has a 30 point advantage on passing - and a 80 point advantage on passing downs. USC is also really good at keeping drives going on offense and killing drives on defense, so Cal will likely stall a bit. FEI thinks even worse of Cal's defense and even better of Cal's offense. USC is great at returns and Cal is horrible at coverage too. All this says easy USC win.

Washington at Arizona


OVERALL When Washington has the ball When Arizona has the ball
Category Washington

Arizona

UW Off UA Def UW Def UA Off
F/+ Rk 61 (-0.6%) 30 (14.2%) 96 (-6.7%) 37 (7.1%) 47 (3.7%) 32 (6.8%)
S&P+ 82 (191.2) 43 (209.9) 87 (94.4) 47 (105.1) 77 (96.8) 44 (104.8)
Play Efficiency

75 (97.6) 36 (110.9) 56 (103.6) 71 (99.4)
Rushing S&P+

60 (104.4) 37 (111.4) 63 (103.5) 75 (97.8)
Passing S&P+

89 (92.4) 51 (107.6) 58 (103.9) 67 (99.4)
Std. Downs S&P+

68 (100.4) 44 (106.8) 66 (100.2) 71 (99.7)
Pass. Downs S&P+

99 (88.8) 37 (118.5) 46 (113.0) 69 (99.3)
Drive Efficiency

86 (93.4) 48 (107.3) 92 (91.7) 24 (117.6)

OVERALL When Washington has the ball When Arizona has the ball
Category Washington

Arizona

UW Off UA Def UW Def UA Off
F/+ Rk 61 (-0.6%) 30 (14.2%) 96 (-6.7%) 37 (7.1%) 47 (3.7%) 32 (6.8%)
FEI Rk 49 (.055) 15 (.215) 100 (-.280) 28 (-.352) 34 (-.283) 27 (.332)
Field Position 11 (.550) 10 (.553)



Raw Efficiency 47 (.043) 27 (.104) 96 (-.261) 74 (.087) 36 (-.227) 20 (.429)
First Down rate

106 (.594) 84 (.699) 58 (.651) 3 (.805)
Available Yards rate

98 (.388) 67 (.453) 51 (.424) 13 (.561)
Explosive Drives

92 (.099) 70 (.133) 9 (.055) 37 (.168)
Methodical Drives

63 (.139) 65 (.142) 101 (.174) 24 (.177)
Value Drives

97 (.318) 61 (.364) 63 (.367) 16 (.500)
Special Team rank 18 (1.617) 61 (.227)



Field Goal efficiency 34 (.291) 96 (-.240)



Punt Return efficiency 21 (.077) 51 (-.040)



Kickoff return efficiency 27 (-.044) 87 (-.187)



punt efficiency 58 (-.099) 61 (-.096)



kickoff efficiency 82 (-.119) 15 (-.257)



Oh, Huskies. Will you ever stop being amusing to me this year? Not this week at least. Their defense is still largely laughed at by S+P and their offense is in the bottom 20% in the nation. Arizona's offense is one of the least efficient overall - but they do finish drives - and Washington does let them. So I would expect good field position for Arizona resulting in points and weird things like stupid penalties extending drives. FEI at least thinks that Washington has a decent chance on defense, but their offense is absurdly overmatched. Washington is pretty good at kick and punt returns but Arizona is very good at kick coverage, so I wouldn't expect a lot there either. Maybe next year Washington will have an offense.

Utah at Stanford


OVERALL When Utah has the ball When Stanford has the ball
Category Utah

Stanford

Utah Off STAN Def Utah Def STAN Off
F/+ Rk 31 (13.7%) 35 (12.5%) 82 (-4.8%) 11 (14.8%) 14 (14.1%) 65 (-1.8%)
S&P+ 56 (205.0) 21 (229.0) 83 (94.6) 5 (129.0) 32 (110.5) 61 (100.0)
Play Efficiency

88 (93.7) 1 (157.9) 21 (122.6) 74 (98.5)
Rushing S&P+

78 (97.4) 2 (147.0) 28 (115.3) 101 (90.1)
Passing S&P+

94 (91.1) 3 (162.1) 16 (125.7) 53 (105.4)
Std. Downs S&P+

86 (94.4) 2 (147.2) 9 (124.8) 78 (98.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+

90 (93.1) 1 (174.3) 48 (111.5) 64 (100.0)
Drive Efficiency

65 (101.7) 39 (112.3) 54 (104.6) 48 (106.0)

OVERALL When Utah has the ball When Stanford has the ball
Category Utah

Stanford

Utah Off STAN Def Utah Def STAN Off
F/+ Rk 31 (13.7%) 35 (12.5%) 82 (-4.8%) 11 (14.8%) 14 (14.1%) 65 (-1.8%)
FEI Rk 16 (.198) 38 (.092) 84 (-.175) 18 (-.439) 4 (-.671) 70 (-.086)
Field Position 14 (.546) 30 (.519)



Raw Efficiency 40 (.058) 46 (.048) 106 (-.330) 22 (-.354) 23 (-.353) 81 (-.143)
First Down rate

94 (.619) 63 (.659) 48 (.631) 46 (.694)
Available Yards rate

106 (.378) 23 (.365) 36 (.396) 51 (.468)
Explosive Drives

104 (.086) 19 (.082) 28 (.087) 84 (.106)
Methodical Drives

71 (.133) 90 (.165) 103 (.175) 74 (.129)
Value Drives

93 (.322) 9 (.256) 25 (.293) 37 (.431)
Special Team rank 6 (3.045) 82 (-.356)



Field Goal efficiency 5 (.605) 92 (-.221)



Punt Return efficiency 4 (.246) 59 (-.070)



Kickoff return efficiency 46 (-.119) 42 (-.110)



punt efficiency 11 (-.277) 108 (.077)



kickoff efficiency 99 (-.058) 21 (-.246)



Here's a salty one. Utah is better on offense and on defense compared to Stanford by FEI standards, but both defenses have a big and very similar advantage. S+P sees Utah as having a worse offense and a worse defense, but only by a little bit. Utah will likely win if they can get value from special teams - they're great at punting, punt returns and field goals. Stanford is really bad at punting and field goals. If Utah can get good field position after every drive they can pull the upset. Otherwise I see a Stanford slight win. Kendal Thompson's injury is probably not a good thing here either.

Arizona State at Oregon State


OVERALL When Arizona State has the ball When Oregon State has the ball
Category Arizona State

Oregon State

ASU Off OSU Def ASU Def OSU Off
F/+ Rk 16 (23.0%) 73 (-4.9%) 14 (13.4%) 88 (-6.0%) 27 (9.0%) 55 (1.3%)
S&P+ 25 (225.4) 86 (189.6) 29 (112.2) 93 (92.9) 27 (113.2) 75 (96.7)
Play Efficiency

31 (118.0) 84 (95.8) 32 (114.9) 64 (102.2)
Rushing S&P+

53 (107.2) 126 (74.5) 39 (110.7) 35 (115.0)
Passing S&P+

20 (127.0) 42 (112.0) 27 (117.6) 88 (92.9)
Std. Downs S&P+

27 (117.2) 103 (90.3) 43 (107.1) 56 (104.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+

35 (118.7) 47 (112.8) 19 (133.1) 91 (91.1)
Drive Efficiency

25 (116.3) 100 (89.6) 26 (120.6) 87 (93.0)

OVERALL When Arizona State has the ball When Oregon State has the ball
Category Arizona State

Oregon State

ASU Off OSU Def ASU Def OSU Off
F/+ Rk 16 (23.0%) 73 (-4.9%) 14 (13.4%) 88 (-6.0%) 27 (9.0%) 55 (1.3%)
FEI Rk 10 (.230) 66 (-.005) 9 (.597) 88 (.213) 30 (-.342) 44 (.139)
Field Position 28 (.522) 105 (.475)



Raw Efficiency 36 (.079) 83 (-.057) 46 (.108) 79 (.135) 33 (-.243) 60 (-.010)
First Down rate

18 (.733) 39 (.621) 71 (.673) 50 (.688)
Available Yards rate

31 (.516) 75 (.468) 44 (.416) 69 (.437)
Explosive Drives

55 (.139) 36 (.095) 66 (.129) 54 (.140)
Methodical Drives

62 (.139) 94 (.168) 60 (.139) 98 (.108)
Value Drives

38 (.425) 97 (.459) 53 (.351) 62 (.381)
Special Team rank 52 (.380) 73 (-.089)



Field Goal efficiency 21 (.404) 4 (.701)



Punt Return efficiency 54 (-.051) 95 (-.185)



Kickoff return efficiency 82 (-.182) 45 (-.117)



punt efficiency 50 (-.131) 114 (.112)



kickoff efficiency 100 (-.056) 68 (-.159)



This week...ugh. The games are just either not at all balanced or not fun to watch. ASU's offense isn't super, but they are good - and about 20 points better than OSU's defense. OSU's offense and ASU's defense match up closely via S+P - so likely is the case that ASU is able to hold (and get good amounts of turnovers) while Oregon State derps things up. FEI sees that as being even more true, thinking ASU is top 10 in the nation on offense against a horrible OSU defense. Oregon State does at least kick field goals really well. That'll be poor comfort when the game is 44-9.

The Best of the Rest:

Ohio State at Minnesota


OVERALL When Ohio State has the ball When Minnesota has the ball
Category Ohio State

Minnesota

tOSU Off MINN Def tOSU Def MINN Off
F/+ Rk 3 (33.3%) 34 (12.6%) 8 (16.9%) 34 (7.8%) 15 (13.9%) 49 (2.4%)
S&P+ 2 (258.5) 39 (213.3) 1 (132.8) 41 (109.0) 10 (125.8) 48 (104.3)
Play Efficiency

1 (148.7) 40 (109.8) 19 (123.2) 55 (106.3)
Rushing S&P+

5 (139.9) 33 (112.6) 50 (106.2) 49 (108.9)
Passing S&P+

2 (160.5) 54 (106.5) 8 (140.2) 46 (107.0)
Std. Downs S&P+

6 (133.6) 42 (108.5) 17 (119.8) 51 (106.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+

2 (183.8) 51 (109.1) 24 (127.5) 56 (104.5)
Drive Efficiency

6 (133.4) 44 (108.7) 4 (147.4) 42 (109.7)

OVERALL When Ohio State has the ball When Minnesota has the ball
Category Ohio State

Minnesota

tOSU Off MINN Def tOSU Def MINN Off
F/+ Rk 3 (33.3%) 34 (12.6%) 8 (16.9%) 34 (7.8%) 15 (13.9%) 49 (2.4%)
FEI Rk 12 (.225) 39 (.085) 14 (.491) 32 (-.333) 19 (-.434) 52 (.090)
Field Position 2 (.579) 13 (.549)



Raw Efficiency 2 (.293) 28 (.102) 9 (.557) 26 (-.333) 21 (-.364) 66 (-.043)
First Down rate

5 (.798) 9 (.548) 11 (.556) 87 (.630)
Available Yards rate

1 (.658) 17 (.355) 7 (.321) 66 (.441)
Explosive Drives

18 (.191) 23 (.086) 38 (.101) 73 (.120)
Methodical Drives

110 (.096) 46 (.129) 22 (.091) 41 (.152)
Value Drives

2 (.613) 15 (.271) 13 (.261) 73 (.354)
Special Team rank 16 (1.714) 17 (1.679)



Field Goal efficiency 77 (-.070) 64 (.035)



Punt Return efficiency 14 (.110) 39 (-.001)



Kickoff return efficiency 91 (-.196) 9 (.058)



punt efficiency 13 (-.269) 84 (-.035)



kickoff efficiency 36 (-.212) 22 (-.246)



Minneota's 7-2, so they've got to be good, right? C'mon, man, throw those OSU fans a bone. Well, the good news is that OSU is likely going to crush Minnesota. Minnesota has an average defense and is going up against a stellar offense, with a 55 point difference passing the ball. OSU's defense is also about 20-30 points better than Minnesota. And OSU finishes drives amazingly well on both sides of the ball. FEI sees OSU as one of the most efficient teams in the nation and is only hampered by an inability to go 10+ plays - largely because they score too fast. Minnesota has a better defense via FEI, but still not within a striking distance of OSU. Both teams are pretty good at special teams, though Minnesota's weakness in punt coverage may let a big return go.

Clemson at Georgia Tech


OVERALL When Clemson has the ball When Georgia Tech has the ball
Category Clemson

Georgia Tech

Clem Off GT Def Clem Def GT Off
F/+ Rk 18 (21.7%) 17 (22.9%) 46 (3.5%) 70 (-1.7%) 1 (19.6%) 2 (22.3%)
S&P+ 16 (234.6) 30 (221.5) 49 (103.9) 72 (97.4) 4 (130.7) 8 (124.1)
Play Efficiency

78 (96.9) 97 (91.5) 4 (145.4) 8 (137.7)
Rushing S&P+

111 (85.2) 106 (86.9) 5 (138.6) 6 (137.8)
Passing S&P+

45 (107.4) 80 (96.1) 5 (150.0) 8 (142.7)
Std. Downs S&P+

80 (95.9) 87 (95.1) 6 (133.1) 8 (129.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+

72 (99.0) 104 (83.7) 4 (165.6) 5 (162.2)
Drive Efficiency

15 (124.4) 31 (115.3) 20 (124.7) 23 (118.7)

OVERALL When Clemson has the ball When Georgia Tech has the ball
Category Clemson

Georgia Tech

Clem Off GT Def Clem Def GT Off
F/+ Rk 18 (21.7%) 17 (22.9%) 46 (3.5%) 70 (-1.7%) 1 (19.6%) 2 (22.3%)
FEI Rk 18 (.193) 13 (.225) 40 (.158) 70 (.032) 2 (-.687) 1 (.925)
Field Position 43 (.509) 12 (.549)



Raw Efficiency 34 (.086) 18 (.152) 86 (-.175) 98 (.255) 6 (-.566) 3 (.690)
First Down rate

115 (.570) 91 (.711) 2 (.491) 1 (.837)
Available Yards rate

89 (.405) 99 (.530) 1 (.258) 4 (.627)
Explosive Drives

88 (.103) 80 (.144) 60 (.125) 14 (.198)
Methodical Drives

23 (.178) 117 (.200) 4 (.045) 14 (.198)
Value Drives

63 (.376) 108 (.488) 3 (.190) 4 (.575)
Special Team rank 95 (-1.018) 19 (1.601)



Field Goal efficiency 54 (.115) 102 (-.352)



Punt Return efficiency 107 (-.223) 5 (.236)



Kickoff return efficiency 120 (-.284) 41 (-.103)



punt efficiency 18 (-.247) 25 (-.204)



kickoff efficiency 109 (-.015) 78 (-.126)



Now this is a real diamond in the rough. GT is heavily underrated and mocked. Clemson is overrated and mocked. And both teams are very close to each other. FEI thinks that GT has the best offense and Clemson has the best defense. This is being artificially propped up due to how Clemson performed against a Winstonless FSU, but they're still quite good. Clemson's offense isn't great, but they're better that GT's defense by a good margin. S+P has similar views of the matchup with Clemson (again, overrated) having a slight advantage on defense and a decent advantage on offense. Clemson's big flaw is that they're bad at special teams - and GT might take advantage of that, though their best asset (punt returns) matches up with one of the only strengths on special teams Clemson has. I'd give the edge to GT since they're at home and Clemson is Clemson.

Virginia Tech at Duke


OVERALL When Virginia Tech has the ball When Duke has the ball
Category Virginia Tech

Duke

VT Off DUKE Def VT Def DUKE Off
F/+ Rk 28 (14.7%) 23 (19.3%) 81 (-4.6%) 23 (9.3%) 5 (18.2%) 44 (4.3%)
S&P+ 26 (224.8) 45 (209.4) 68 (98.5) 49 (104.0) 8 (126.3) 43 (105.4)
Play Efficiency

89 (93.6) 60 (101.9) 2 (152.0) 61 (104.6)
Rushing S&P+

102 (89.9) 78 (96.9) 7 (136.4) 34 (115.2)
Passing S&P+

69 (97.6) 43 (111.0) 1 (173.8) 74 (96.0)
Std. Downs S&P+

74 (99.2) 62 (101.5) 3 (141.0) 49 (106.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+

109 (85.0) 58 (106.2) 2 (171.7) 61 (100.4)
Drive Efficiency

33 (112.7) 36 (113.3) 22 (123.9) 35 (111.7)

OVERALL When Virginia Tech has the ball When Duke has the ball
Category Virginia Tech

Duke

VT Off DUKE Def VT Def DUKE Off
F/+ Rk 28 (14.7%) 23 (19.3%) 81 (-4.6%) 23 (9.3%) 5 (18.2%) 44 (4.3%)
FEI Rk 30 (.129) 20 (.192) 89 (-.222) 14 (-.497) 3 (-.673) 37 (.181)
Field Position 73 (.493) 4 (.568)



Raw Efficiency 58 (.011) 20 (.146) 111 (-.379) 39 (-.207) 30 (-.262) 43 (.137)
First Down rate

117 (.565) 56 (.642) 24 (.590) 41 (.697)
Available Yards rate

116 (.355) 49 (.420) 35 (.395) 41 (.491)
Explosive Drives

124 (.056) 7 (.053) 91 (.162) 70 (.124)
Methodical Drives

73 (.130) 111 (.189) 3 (.038) 50 (.146)
Value Drives

106 (.293) 43 (.333) 55 (.356) 55 (.392)
Special Team rank 41 (.713) 1 (3.951)



Field Goal efficiency 89 (-.169) 9 (.536)



Punt Return efficiency 69 (-.103) 28 (.052)



Kickoff return efficiency 108 (-.247) 4 (.112)



punt efficiency 22 (-.225) 7 (-.337)



kickoff efficiency 7 (-.332) 65 (-.164)



The second good ACC matchup. While Vtech is probably a bit worse than their rating due to that big win against Ohio State, they're still pretty decent. And much like Stanford/Utah, this is a lot about two good defenses beating the snot out of each other. What's interesting is that FEI loves Duke and likes VT, but S+P hates Duke and likes VT. VT"s defense is considered top notch by S+P; Duke's defense is considered 14th best by FEI. If I had to bet, I'd say that Duke will win as it's at home and VTech is a bit overrated due to that OSU game. Duke also is the best special teams team in the country,and will get a lot of extra yards that way.

Mississippi State at Alabama


OVERALL When Mississippi State has the ball When Alabama has the ball
Category Mississippi State

Alabama

MSST Off ALA Def MSST Def ALA Off
F/+ Rk 6 (32.5%) 1 (35.2%) 13 (13.6%) 2 (19.4%) 6 (17.9%) 6 (17.2%)
S&P+ 3 (254.9) 1 (268.7) 6 (127.8) 1 (138.6) 6 (127.2) 4 (130.0)
Play Efficiency

10 (132.9) 5 (143.7) 12 (126.6) 7 (137.7)
Rushing S&P+

9 (133.3) 1 (159.7) 9 (133.7) 22 (124.6)
Passing S&P+

12 (134.5) 10 (133.2) 20 (123.9) 3 (157.1)
Std. Downs S&P+

13 (126.5) 1 (150.6) 12 (121.6) 3 (135.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

10 (145.0) 22 (129.3) 14 (136.0) 14 (138.6)
Drive Efficiency

5 (134.8) 1 (151.8) 5 (147.0) 1 (144.8)

OVERALL When Mississippi State has the ball When Alabama has the ball
Category Mississippi State

Alabama

MSST Off ALA Def MSST Def ALA Off
F/+ Rk 6 (32.5%) 1 (35.2%) 13 (13.6%) 2 (19.4%) 6 (17.9%) 6 (17.2%)
FEI Rk 9 (.231) 2 (.282) 23 (.376) 10 (-.559) 7 (-.640) 12 (.547)
Field Position 25 (.524) 108 (.474)



Raw Efficiency 11 (.216) 7 (.223) 24 (.383) 5 (-.571) 10 (-.488) 11 (.511)
First Down rate

37 (.706) 32 (.612) 35 (.618) 30 (.716)
Available Yards rate

18 (.550) 8 (.321) 29 (.377) 14 (.555)
Explosive Drives

12 (.206) 5 (.051) 45 (.109) 36 (.168)
Methodical Drives

64 (.137) 77 (.153) 18 (.082) 35 (.158)
Value Drives

25 (.477) 4 (.198) 18 (.280) 17 (.500)
Special Team rank 42 (.699) 96 (-1.028)



Field Goal efficiency 107 (-.417) 83 (-.114)



Punt Return efficiency 117 (-.290) 124 (-.328)



Kickoff return efficiency 12 (.026) 112 (-.253)



punt efficiency 36 (-.164) 9 (-.306)



kickoff efficiency 4 (-.371) 87 (-.098)



Will this match up to the hype and the craziness? The answer via advanced stats is 'probably not'. S+P values Alabama as the best team in the country this week, thanks to being great at defense and offense. Meanwhile, the shine has come off of the MSST offense to some degree, and that's really the matchup where Alabama will win. That, and Alabama's passing game, which is one of the best in the nation. They probably won't be able to run the ball, but they will pass like mad. Alabama is really bad at special teams and MSST could get some yards on kickoffs and returns, but I don't see that taking out the Alabama home advantage and their defense.

Nebraska at Wisconsin


OVERALL When Nebraska has the ball When Wisconsin has the ball
Category Nebraska

Wisconsin

NEB Off WIS Def NEB Def WIS Off
F/+ Rk 14 (23.2%) 19 (21.5%) 33 (6.7%) 10 (15.1%) 16 (12.7%) 37 (6.2%)
S&P+ 22 (228.4) 13 (242.3) 28 (113.4) 9 (126.0) 21 (115.0) 19 (116.3)
Play Efficiency

24 (120.1) 20 (123.2) 27 (119.3) 35 (116.4)
Rushing S&P+

26 (121.2) 22 (120.9) 48 (107.1) 16 (127.8)
Passing S&P+

34 (117.2) 18 (125.4) 13 (130.7) 66 (100.2)
Std. Downs S&P+

30 (115.6) 27 (117.6) 25 (117.7) 17 (123.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+

22 (129.4) 21 (130.2) 36 (118.7) 89 (93.3)
Drive Efficiency

32 (113.3) 11 (135.4) 27 (120.3) 13 (125.0)

OVERALL When Nebraska has the ball When Wisconsin has the ball
Category Nebraska

Wisconsin

NEB Off WIS Def NEB Def WIS Off
F/+ Rk 14 (23.2%) 19 (21.5%) 33 (6.7%) 10 (15.1%) 16 (12.7%) 37 (6.2%)
FEI Rk 21 (.187) 26 (.141) 35 (.196) 13 (-.500) 11 (-.527) 48 (.126)
Field Position 5 (.566) 44 (.508)



Raw Efficiency 4 (.234) 6 (.230) 36 (.233) 4 (-.589) 11 (-.478) 25 (.343)
First Down rate

33 (.711) 7 (.522) 4 (.515) 54 (.681)
Available Yards rate

16 (.552) 3 (.286) 6 (.317) 25 (.529)
Explosive Drives

24 (.186) 27 (.087) 44 (.109) 2 (.275)
Methodical Drives

81 (.124) 6 (.054) 15 (.079) 72 (.132)
Value Drives

14 (.506) 2 (.181) 12 (.258) 27 (.468)
Special Team rank 7 (2.660) 66 (.149)



Field Goal efficiency 98 (-.254) 22 (.393)



Punt Return efficiency 1 (.352) 26 (.066)



Kickoff return efficiency 20 (-.034) 88 (-.187)



punt efficiency 29 (-.193) 112 (.100)



kickoff efficiency 69 (-.146) 79 (-.125)



Another fairly close matchup and another strong defense/meh offensive matchup. Apparently all those big scores last week were bad for the digestion, and it's time to get to a lot of fiber-rich defensive struggles. Wisconsin has small advantages everywhere - on defense, in FEI - but the big advantage is an over 20 point value when they run the ball. Nebraska isn't great stopping the run, and that'll probably be the decider. Wisconsin isn't as liked via FEI, but they're close enough (.046 points) to really not quibble too much; the main difference is that FEI thinks Wisconsin's offense is pretty meh. Nebraska has the edge across the board in special teams, but it's probably the home defense again winning out.

Auburn at Georgia


OVERALL When Auburn has the ball When Georgia has the ball
Category Auburn

Georgia

Aub Off UG Def Aub Def UG Off
F/+ Rk 5 (32.9%) 13 (24.3%) 1 (22.6%) 43 (4.8%) 19 (10.7%) 9 (16.8%)
S&P+ 5 (250.6) 17 (234.5) 2 (131.9) 33 (110.4) 17 (118.7) 7 (124.2)
Play Efficiency

2 (146.1) 57 (103.3) 17 (123.3) 5 (140.2)
Rushing S&P+

11 (130.2) 71 (98.3) 10 (133.5) 1 (145.8)
Passing S&P+

1 (178.6) 45 (110.4) 30 (115.5) 13 (133.6)
Std. Downs S&P+

9 (128.7) 39 (110.2) 23 (117.8) 4 (134.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+

1 (199.8) 94 (89.2) 13 (136.2) 8 (145.6)
Drive Efficiency

4 (137.0) 16 (127.4) 8 (138.6) 18 (122.8)

OVERALL When Auburn has the ball When Georgia has the ball
Category Auburn

Georgia

Aub Off UG Def Aub Def UG Off
F/+ Rk 5 (32.9%) 13 (24.3%) 1 (22.6%) 43 (4.8%) 19 (10.7%) 9 (16.8%)
FEI Rk 4 (.263) 11 (.227) 2 (.823) 52 (-.143) 27 (-.359) 8 (.608)
Field Position 39 (.512) 1 (.591)



Raw Efficiency 21 (.138) 5 (.233) 8 (.568) 47 (-.168) 64 (.002) 10 (.518)
First Down rate

12 (.758) 17 (.573) 52 (.636) 21 (.727)
Available Yards rate

7 (.583) 26 (.370) 72 (.460) 11 (.572)
Explosive Drives

17 (.192) 34 (.094) 96 (.178) 7 (.227)
Methodical Drives

56 (.141) 41 (.125) 74 (.150) 48 (.148)
Value Drives

7 (.540) 41 (.330) 82 (.418) 13 (.514)
Special Team rank 80 (-.239) 11 (1.926)



Field Goal efficiency 103 (-.361) 76 (-.067)



Punt Return efficiency 15 (.105) 6 (.178)



Kickoff return efficiency 125 (-.335) 8 (.081)



punt efficiency 52 (-.115) 97 (.023)



kickoff efficiency 54 (-.191) 51 (-.192)



Despite Auburn losing stats still love them, and Georgia is still a good team. Both offenses have the advantage; Auburn almost 20 points everywhere, Georgia only 10 points. Georgia may be able to pass the ball better than they can run, with a 20 point advantage there. Auburn has an absurd 68 point advantage passing, though they do it so infrequently that it's probably not that big a deal. FEI sees things as largely the same, though thinks less of Georgia's defense. Georgia has good returns and may get advantages to a point there, but I see this as a nice fun race. If you get a chance tune into this one. Should be a lot of fun to watch.

Florida State at Miami


OVERALL When Florida State has the ball When Miami has the ball
Category Florida State

Miami

FSU Off Miami Def FSU Def Miami Off
F/+ Rk 9 (27.8%) 12 (26.7%) 4 (17.6%) 18 (11.3%) 29 (8.9%) 10 (15.1%)
S&P+ 18 (234.3) 14 (240.9) 10 (123.0) 15 (122.0) 30 (111.2) 16 (118.9)
Play Efficiency

6 (137.8) 8 (133.6) 75 (97.5) 15 (124.5)
Rushing S&P+

8 (133.7) 19 (124.2) 91 (94.2) 44 (110.5)
Passing S&P+

10 (138.5) 7 (145.6) 70 (98.9) 9 (141.7)
Std. Downs S&P+

7 (132.3) 7 (127.4) 59 (102.0) 22 (121.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+

9 (145.1) 8 (153.1) 92 (89.6) 16 (134.0)
Drive Efficiency

16 (123.5) 21 (124.1) 12 (135.2) 19 (121.1)

OVERALL When Florida State has the ball When Miami has the ball
Category Florida State

Miami

FSU Off Miami Def FSU Def Miami Off
F/+ Rk 9 (27.8%) 12 (26.7%) 4 (17.6%) 18 (11.3%) 29 (8.9%) 10 (15.1%)
FEI Rk 6 (.251) 19 (.192) 6 (.673) 31 (-.342) 25 (-.365) 10 (.595)
Field Position 55 (.499) 70 (.494)



Raw Efficiency 17 (.152) 22 (.138) 38 (.194) 24 (-.335) 27 (-.315) 26 (.334)
First Down rate

20 (.730) 59 (.652) 51 (.635) 71 (.651)
Available Yards rate

52 (.467) 21 (.363) 41 (.405) 27 (.526)
Explosive Drives

13 (.200) 11 (.067) 61 (.125) 15 (.198)
Methodical Drives

87 (.120) 83 (.157) 35 (.115) 125 (.058)
Value Drives

46 (.409) 20 (.286) 40 (.326) 24 (.481)
Special Team rank 33 (.922) 64 (.188)



Field Goal efficiency 2 (.803) 17 (.449)



Punt Return efficiency 111 (-.241) 109 (-.228)



Kickoff return efficiency 68 (-.164) 44 (-.117)



punt efficiency 54 (-.111) 10 (-.292)



kickoff efficiency 33 (-.223) 119 (.049)



Another 'which is a better system ' stats matchup - FSU is loved by FEI and merely liked by S+P, while they're essentially tied by S+P. FSU's offense is probably a bit better than what is listed due to that clemson game, but that is still a problem as Miami's best defensive trait is still their passing defense. FSU might find some room to run, though they're not very good at it. Miami's offense is surprisingly good and has a big advantage when passing the ball - more than 40 points - and completes drives. FEI likes Miami's offense but likes FSU's a lot more. FSU has a small advantage in special teams - mostly in field goal kicks. And that's definitely something FSU should count on! With this being at Miami normally I'd give the edge to Miami, but Miami's home field advantage is about the saddest thing ever.

LSU at Arkansas


OVERALL When LSU has the ball When Arkansas has the ball
Category LSU

Arkansas

LSU Off Arkansas Def LSU Def Arkansas Off
F/+ Rk 10 (27.5%) 37 (10.6%) 29 (7.9%) 39 (6.7%) 9 (16.5%) 39 (6.1%)
S&P+ 6 (250.4) 20 (229.4) 15 (119.2) 26 (113.8) 3 (131.2) 20 (115.6)
Play Efficiency

18 (124.2) 23 (121.6) 6 (140.3) 27 (119.5)
Rushing S&P+

14 (128.6) 8 (133.9) 15 (127.7) 18 (127.5)
Passing S&P+

23 (125.4) 34 (114.1) 4 (155.8) 41 (110.3)
Std. Downs S&P+

21 (122.1) 31 (115.5) 5 (139.3) 28 (116.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+

31 (124.1) 20 (132.4) 16 (135.3) 26 (128.2)
Drive Efficiency

3 (138.9) 15 (128.6) 7 (142.7) 17 (123.0)

OVERALL When LSU has the ball When Arkansas has the ball
Category LSU

Arkansas

LSU Off Arkansas Def LSU Def Arkansas Off
F/+ Rk 10 (27.5%) 37 (10.6%) 29 (7.9%) 39 (6.7%) 9 (16.5%) 39 (6.1%)
FEI Rk 23 (.174) 46 (.061) 38 (.181) 42 (-.202) 12 (-.506) 47 (.127)
Field Position 21 (.536) 65 (.496)



Raw Efficiency 31 (.097) 48 (.042) 83 (-.159) 67 (.011) 16 (-.424) 35 (.249)
First Down rate

108 (.593) 40 (.622) 16 (.569) 51 (.686)
Available Yards rate

102 (.385) 62 (.435) 10 (.329) 39 (.496)
Explosive Drives

91 (.102) 82 (.146) 51 (.119) 61 (.128)
Methodical Drives

93 (.111) 30 (.110) 2 (.037) 7 (.221)
Value Drives

98 (.316) 58 (.360) 10 (.257) 35 (.434)
Special Team rank 9 (2.093) 107 (-1.472)



Field Goal efficiency 13 (.488) 117 (-.599)



Punt Return efficiency 24 (.070) 128 (-.404)



Kickoff return efficiency 39 (-.094) 29 (-.056)



punt efficiency 70 (-.075) 3 (-.382)



kickoff efficiency 28 (-.233) 117 (.036)



If you were thinking that Arkansas is a good team, well, you'd be right. If you were thinking they might have a shot against a 3-loss LSU team, think again. LSU has small but reasonable advantages on offense and absurdly good advantages on defense. LSU is of course great at special teams play and Arkansas is one of the worst at everything save punting. Expect a low scoring game with chicanery and a LSU win.